A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper presents a novel approach for approximate integration over the uncertainty of noise and signal variances in Gaussian process (GP) regression. Our efficient and straightforward approach can also be applied to integration over input dependent noise variance (heteroscedasticity) and input dependent signal varia…
We consider the high-dimensional heteroscedastic regression model, where the mean and the log variance are modeled as a linear combination of input variables. Existing literature on high-dimensional linear regres- sion models has largely ignored non-constant error variances, even though they commonly occur in a variety…
Gaussian Process (GP) regression models typically assume that residuals are Gaussian and have the same variance for all observations. However, applications with input-dependent noise (heteroscedastic residuals) frequently arise in practice, as do applications in which the residuals do not have a Gaussian distribution. …
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a method for estimating a subspace given noisy samples. It is useful in a variety of problems ranging from dimensionality reduction to anomaly detection and the visualization of high dimensional data. PCA performs well in the presence of moderate noise and even with missing data, b…
Regression trees are becoming increasingly popular as omnibus predicting tools and as the basis of numerous modern statistical learning ensembles. Part of their popularity is their ability to create a regression prediction without ever specifying a structure for the mean model. However, the method implicitly assumes ho…
We propose a robust method to estimate heteroscedastic noise models using Student's t-distribution.
problem Identifying cause and effect from bivariate observational data with non-Gaussian noise.
method We propose a novel approach using Student's t-distribution to estimate heteroscedastic noise models, which is more robust and achieves better performance.
result Our estimators are more robust and achieve better overall performance across synthetic and real benchmarks.
Prediction intervals in supervised Machine Learning bound the region where the true outputs of new samples may fall. They are necessary in the task of separating reliable predictions of a trained model from near random guesses, minimizing the rate of False Positives, and other problem-specific tasks in applied Machine …
The performance of the Lasso is well understood under the assumptions of the standard linear model with homoscedastic noise. However, in several applications, the standard model does not describe the important features of the data. This paper examines how the Lasso performs on a non-standard model that is motivated by …
Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have long been considered as one of the most successful families of approaches for volatility modeling in financial return series. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach based on methodologies widely used in the field of statistical mac…
Sequential decision making for lifetime maximization is a critical problem in many real-world applications, such as medical treatment and portfolio selection. In these applications, a "reneging" phenomenon, where participants may disengage from future interactions after observing an unsatisfiable outcome, is rather pre…
Unlike machines, humans learn through rapid, abstract model-building. The role of a teacher is not simply to hammer home right or wrong answers, but rather to provide intuitive comments, comparisons, and explanations to a pupil. This is what the Learning Under Privileged Information (LUPI) paradigm endeavors to model b…
We consider least squares estimation in a general nonparametric regression model. The rate of convergence of the least squares estimator (LSE) for the unknown regression function is well studied when the errors are sub-Gaussian. We find upper bounds on the rates of convergence of the LSE when the errors have uniformly …
We present a new algorithm, truncated variance reduction (TruVaR), that treats Bayesian optimization (BO) and level-set estimation (LSE) with Gaussian processes in a unified fashion. The algorithm greedily shrinks a sum of truncated variances within a set of potential maximizers (BO) or unclassified points (LSE), which…
We propose a new method of estimation in high-dimensional linear regression model. It allows for very weak distributional assumptions including heteroscedasticity, and does not require the knowledge of the variance of random errors. The method is based on linear programming only, so that its numerical implementation is…
HET-XL improves heteroscedastic classifiers for large-scale image classification.
problem Scaling heteroscedastic classifiers to handle large numbers of classes and tuning the temperature hyperparameter.
method HET-XL, a heteroscedastic classifier with independent parameter count from the number of classes, learns the temperature hyperparameter directly from training data.
result HET-XL requires 14X fewer additional parameters and performs better than baseline heteroscedastic classifiers on large image classification datasets.
In applications of supervised learning applied to medical image segmentation, the need for large amounts of labeled data typically goes unquestioned. In particular, in the case of brain anatomy segmentation, hundreds or thousands of weakly-labeled volumes are often used as training data. In this paper, we first observe…
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold great promise as a flexible and principled solution to deal with uncertainty when learning from finite data. Among approaches to realize probabilistic inference in deep neural networks, variational Bayes (VB) is theoretically grounded, generally applicable, and computationally effic…
Study online pricing with contextual elasticity and heteroscedastic valuation.
problem Online contextual dynamic pricing with customer decision based on features and price.
method Introduced a novel approach to modeling customer demand with feature-based price elasticity and heteroscedastic noise. Proposed an efficient algorithm called Pricing with Perturbation (PwP).
result Proved an O(dTlogT) regret bound for the algorithm, matching a lower bound of Ω(dT).
Bayesian optimisation is a sample-efficient search methodology that holds great promise for accelerating drug and materials discovery programs. A frequently-overlooked modelling consideration in Bayesian optimisation strategies however, is the representation of heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainty. In many practical a…