Reduces function approximation dimensions from high to low with sparse data.
problem Function approximation from sparse data.
method Nonlinear Level Set Learning (NLL) with geometric information.
result Reduces input dimension to theoretical lower bound with minor accuracy loss.
We develop a projected Nesterov's proximal-gradient (PNPG) approach for sparse signal reconstruction that combines adaptive step size with Nesterov's momentum acceleration. The objective function that we wish to minimize is the sum of a convex differentiable data-fidelity (negative log-likelihood (NLL)) term and a conv…
Enhances ENet's prediction accuracy while maintaining uncertainty estimation.
problem Gradient shrinkage problem in ENet's loss function.
method Proposes a multi-task learning framework with a modified MSE loss function.
result Improves ENet's prediction accuracy without losing uncertainty estimation.
ICAL improves deep learning model accuracy and NLL with optimized batch labeling.
problem Deep Bayesian Active Learning for efficient model training.
method ICAL uses HSIC to measure dependency and optimizes batch size scaling.
result Significant improvements in model accuracy and NLL on image datasets.
Proposes integrating random effects into deep neural networks for better predictive performance.
problem Correlated data in real-life applications are not handled well by traditional deep neural networks.
method Uses mixed models with random effects to handle correlations in deep neural networks, minimizing Gaussian negative log-likelihood with SGD.
result Improves predictive performance over natural competitors in various correlation scenarios.
Post-hoc calibration of neural networks using g-Layers proves theoretical justification.
problem Ensuring the confidence of neural network decisions in real-world applications.
method Proves theoretical justification for post-hoc calibration methods by adding g-Layers and minimizing NLL.
result Proves that adding g-Layers and minimizing NLL can lead to a calibrated network.
JUCAL jointly calibrates aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in classifier ensembles.
problem Misrepresentation of predictive uncertainty due to unbalanced aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
method Joint Uncertainty Calibration (JUCAL) that jointly calibrates two constants to weight and scale uncertainties.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art calibration methods across various text classification tasks.
The log-likelihood loss in heteroscedastic neural networks can lead to poor parameter estimates.
problem Capturing aleatoric uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Examine the log-likelihood loss in conjunction with gradient-based optimizers and propose an alternative formulation, β-NLL. result Using an appropriate β largely mitigates the issue of poor parameter estimates. Estimates uncertainty in bounding box regression for object detection.
problem Reliable deployment of deep object detectors in safety-critical tasks.
method Training variance networks with energy score as a proper scoring rule.
result Energy score leads to better calibrated and lower entropy predictive distributions.
ProbFM provides principled uncertainty quantification for financial forecasting.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification in financial applications.
method Probabilistic Time Series Foundation Model with Uncertainty Decomposition using Deep Evidential Regression (DER).
result DER maintains competitive forecasting accuracy while providing explicit epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition.
A new method normalizes flow mixtures for better inference across different data types.
problem Inference failure across diverse posterior geometries in normalizing flows.
method Introduces a two-stage framework with a stable global weighting mechanism based on sEMA.
result Achieves consistent NLL improvements and stable weight trajectories over baselines.
Fast estimates of model uncertainty are required for many robust robotics applications. Deep Ensembles provides state of the art uncertainty without requiring Bayesian methods, but still it is computationally expensive. In this paper we propose deep sub-ensembles, an approximation to deep ensembles where the core idea …
Using powerful posterior distributions is a popular approach to achieving better variational inference. However, recent works showed that the aggregated posterior may fail to match unit Gaussian prior, thus learning the prior becomes an alternative way to improve the lower-bound. In this paper, for the first time in th…
The uncertainty estimation is critical in real-world decision making applications, especially when distributional shift between the training and test data are prevalent. Many calibration methods in the literature have been proposed to improve the predictive uncertainty of DNNs which are generally not well-calibrated. H…
DNLL loss improves deep LDA accuracy and consistency.
problem Pathological solutions in unconstrained Deep LDA.
method Introducing Discriminative Negative Log-Likelihood (DNLL) loss.
result Deep LDA trained with DNLL produces clean latent spaces and better calibrated probabilities.
New method uses interval-based metric to validate prediction uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Validation of prediction uncertainty in machine learning regression tasks is unreliable due to heavy-tailed distributions.
method Shift from variance-based metrics to interval-based Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP).
result PICP method more quickly and reliably tests prediction intervals than variance-based metrics.
This work evaluates uncertainty in deep Gaussian processes.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep Gaussian processes.
method Hierarchical deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) and Deep Sigma Point Processes (DSPPs) evaluated on regression and classification tasks.
result DSPPs provide strong in-distribution calibration but are less robust under distribution shift compared to ensembles.
This work tackles the challenge of aligning generative models without explicit reward signals.
problem Aligning generative models without explicit reward signals.
method A Bilevel Optimization framework where the reward function is treated as the optimization variable of an outer-level problem.
result Theoretical analysis and insights generalize to tabular classification and model-based reinforcement learning.
New method trains energy-based models faster and more stably.
problem Training efficiency and stability of energy-based models.
method EBFlow with score-matching objectives.
result EBFlow achieves significant speedup and better performance.
Paper proposes a new loss function for conditional models using soft targets.
problem Improving generalization performance of deep neural networks on supervised classification tasks.
method Introduces a new loss function compatible with soft targets, based on noise contrastive estimation.
result Soft target InfoNCE loss performs on par with cross-entropy baselines and outperforms other losses.
Develops a theoretical framework for scalable Gaussian Process regression methods.
problem Limited scalability of Gaussian Process regression for large datasets.
method Introduces and analyzes Nearest Neighbour Gaussian Process (NNGP) and scalable GPnn methods.
result Derives almost sure pointwise limits for predictive criteria and proves risk minimax rates.
New GPnn method achieves scalable regression with low computational cost.
problem Inefficient Gaussian Process (GP) regression for large datasets.
method GP nearest-neighbour (GPnn) prediction with robustness and limiting behaviour exploration.
result GPnn achieves high MSE accuracy with minimal parameter estimation effort, even in gross misspecification.
Volatility is a quantity of measurement for the price movements of stocks or options which indicates the uncertainty within financial markets. As an indicator of the level of risk or the degree of variation, volatility is important to analyse the financial market, and it is taken into consideration in various decision-…
This research explores discrete diffusion models for natural language generation.
problem Challenges in applying diffusion models to discrete data, especially natural language.
method Investigates Discrete Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (D3PM) and compares it with autoregressive models.
result Discrete diffusion models achieve better processing speed than autoregressive models.