A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Presents SPEED, an algorithm for optimal policy evaluation in linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise.
problem Optimal data collection for policy evaluation in linear bandits with heteroscedastic reward noise.
method Formulated an optimal design for weighted least squares estimates, derived the optimal sample allocation, introduced SPEED algorithm, and derived regret bounds.
result SPEED leads to policy evaluation with MSE comparable to oracle strategy and significantly lower than random policy execution.
In the stochastic bandit problem, the goal is to maximize an unknown function via a sequence of noisy evaluations. Typically, the observation noise is assumed to be independent of the evaluation point and to satisfy a tail bound uniformly on the domain; a restrictive assumption for many applications. In this work, we c…
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (power-TGARCH) model. The mo…
We prove a new and general concentration inequality for the excess risk in least-squares regression with random design and heteroscedastic noise. No specific structure is required on the model, except the existence of a suitable function that controls the local suprema of the empirical process. So far, only the case of…
We consider the high-dimensional heteroscedastic regression model, where the mean and the log variance are modeled as a linear combination of input variables. Existing literature on high-dimensional linear regres- sion models has largely ignored non-constant error variances, even though they commonly occur in a variety…
This paper proposes a fast method for estimating input-dependent prediction intervals in Extreme Learning Machines.
problem Estimating reliable prediction intervals for Extreme Learning Machines with heteroscedastic outputs.
method A separate Extreme Learning Machine model estimates input-dependent prediction intervals using a weighted Jackknife method to correct for model uncertainty.
result The proposed method is fast, robust to heteroscedastic outputs, and handles large datasets and insufficient training data.
Study non-linear combinatorial bandits with polynomial rewards, finding significant differences from linear cases.
problem Adversarial combinatorial bandits with general non-linear reward functions.
method Extending existing work on adversarial linear combinatorial bandits, analyzing minimax optimal regret for polynomial and non-polynomial reward functions.
result Minimax optimal regret bounds for adversarial combinatorial bandits with general non-linear reward functions.
HET-XL improves heteroscedastic classifiers for large-scale image classification.
problem Scaling heteroscedastic classifiers to handle large numbers of classes and tuning the temperature hyperparameter.
method HET-XL, a heteroscedastic classifier with independent parameter count from the number of classes, learns the temperature hyperparameter directly from training data.
result HET-XL requires 14X fewer additional parameters and performs better than baseline heteroscedastic classifiers on large image classification datasets.
Study online pricing with contextual elasticity and heteroscedastic valuation.
problem Online contextual dynamic pricing with customer decision based on features and price.
method Introduced a novel approach to modeling customer demand with feature-based price elasticity and heteroscedastic noise. Proposed an efficient algorithm called Pricing with Perturbation (PwP).
result Proved an O(dTlogT) regret bound for the algorithm, matching a lower bound of Ω(dT).
New method estimates covariance in deep heteroscedastic regression without labels.
problem Estimating covariance in deep heteroscedastic models is challenging due to sample-dependent covariance and lack of ground truth.
method Proposes a self-supervised approach using KL Divergence and 2-Wasserstein distance for covariance estimation and a neighborhood-based heuristic for pseudo labels.
result Demonstrates effective pseudo labels and a computationally cheaper yet accurate deep heteroscedastic regression.