A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
HET-XL improves heteroscedastic classifiers for large-scale image classification.
problem Scaling heteroscedastic classifiers to handle large numbers of classes and tuning the temperature hyperparameter.
method HET-XL, a heteroscedastic classifier with independent parameter count from the number of classes, learns the temperature hyperparameter directly from training data.
result HET-XL requires 14X fewer additional parameters and performs better than baseline heteroscedastic classifiers on large image classification datasets.
We propose a robust method to estimate heteroscedastic noise models using Student's t-distribution.
problem Identifying cause and effect from bivariate observational data with non-Gaussian noise.
method We propose a novel approach using Student's t-distribution to estimate heteroscedastic noise models, which is more robust and achieves better performance.
result Our estimators are more robust and achieve better overall performance across synthetic and real benchmarks.
Presents SPEED, an algorithm for optimal policy evaluation in linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise.
problem Optimal data collection for policy evaluation in linear bandits with heteroscedastic reward noise.
method Formulated an optimal design for weighted least squares estimates, derived the optimal sample allocation, introduced SPEED algorithm, and derived regret bounds.
result SPEED leads to policy evaluation with MSE comparable to oracle strategy and significantly lower than random policy execution.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a method for estimating a subspace given noisy samples. It is useful in a variety of problems ranging from dimensionality reduction to anomaly detection and the visualization of high dimensional data. PCA performs well in the presence of moderate noise and even with missing data, b…
Study online pricing with contextual elasticity and heteroscedastic valuation.
problem Online contextual dynamic pricing with customer decision based on features and price.
method Introduced a novel approach to modeling customer demand with feature-based price elasticity and heteroscedastic noise. Proposed an efficient algorithm called Pricing with Perturbation (PwP).
result Proved an O(dTlogT) regret bound for the algorithm, matching a lower bound of Ω(dT).
Bayesian optimisation is a sample-efficient search methodology that holds great promise for accelerating drug and materials discovery programs. A frequently-overlooked modelling consideration in Bayesian optimisation strategies however, is the representation of heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainty. In many practical a…
New method estimates covariance in deep heteroscedastic regression without labels.
problem Estimating covariance in deep heteroscedastic models is challenging due to sample-dependent covariance and lack of ground truth.
method Proposes a self-supervised approach using KL Divergence and 2-Wasserstein distance for covariance estimation and a neighborhood-based heuristic for pseudo labels.
result Demonstrates effective pseudo labels and a computationally cheaper yet accurate deep heteroscedastic regression.
Heteroscedastic regression considering the varying noises among observations has many applications in the fields like machine learning and statistics. Here we focus on the heteroscedastic Gaussian process (HGP) regression which integrates the latent function and the noise function together in a unified non-parametric B…
Scheduling surgeries is a challenging task due to the fundamental uncertainty of the clinical environment, as well as the risks and costs associated with under- and over-booking. We investigate neural regression algorithms to estimate the parameters of surgery case durations, focusing on the issue of heteroscedasticity…
Regression trees are becoming increasingly popular as omnibus predicting tools and as the basis of numerous modern statistical learning ensembles. Part of their popularity is their ability to create a regression prediction without ever specifying a structure for the mean model. However, the method implicitly assumes ho…
Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have long been considered as one of the most successful families of approaches for volatility modeling in financial return series. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach based on methodologies widely used in the field of statistical mac…
Accurately modeling traffic speeds is a fundamental part of efficient intelligent transportation systems. Nowadays, with the widespread deployment of GPS-enabled devices, it has become possible to crowdsource the collection of speed information to road users (e.g. through mobile applications or dedicated in-vehicle dev…
This paper presents a novel approach for approximate integration over the uncertainty of noise and signal variances in Gaussian process (GP) regression. Our efficient and straightforward approach can also be applied to integration over input dependent noise variance (heteroscedasticity) and input dependent signal varia…
The performance of the Lasso is well understood under the assumptions of the standard linear model with homoscedastic noise. However, in several applications, the standard model does not describe the important features of the data. This paper examines how the Lasso performs on a non-standard model that is motivated by …
In this work we propose a heteroscedastic generalization to RVM, a fast Bayesian framework for regression, based on some recent similar works. We use variational approximation and expectation propagation to tackle the problem. The work is still under progress and we are examining the results and comparing with the prev…
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (power-TGARCH) model. The mo…
Gaussian Process (GP) regression models typically assume that residuals are Gaussian and have the same variance for all observations. However, applications with input-dependent noise (heteroscedastic residuals) frequently arise in practice, as do applications in which the residuals do not have a Gaussian distribution. …