arXiv research

A new method to value IPOed companies.

Investigates the relationship between US money supply and asset indices over 2001-2019.

Climate volatility reduces economic growth, especially in poorer countries.

Study reveals supply chain correlations in firm growth rates.

In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem incompatible, too loos…

In this paper we obtain three results concerning the geometry of complete noncompact positively curved Kähler manifolds at infinity. The first one states that the order of volume growth of a complete noncompact Kähler manifold with positive bisectional curvature is at least half of the real dimension (i.e., the complex…

In this paper we investigate a new class of growth rate maximization problems based on impulse control strategies such that the average number of trades per time unit does not exceed a fixed level. Moreover, we include proportional transaction costs to make the portfolio problem more realistic. We provide a Verificatio…

We analyze a database comprising quarterly sales of 55624 pharmaceutical products commercialized by 3939 pharmaceutical firms in the period 1992--2001. We study the probability density function (PDF) of growth in firms and product sales and find that the width of the PDF of growth decays with the sales as a power law w…

We first estimate the average growth of a company's annual income and its variance by using both real company data and a numerical model which we already introduced a couple of years ago. Investment strategies expecting for income growth is evaluated based on the numerical model. Our numerical simulation suggests the p…

The purpose of this study is to measure the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth and determine the share of each of the economic growth sources in the mining sector of Iran. The time period of this study is 1355-1385 of the Solar Hijri calendar (roughly overlaying with the time period of 1976-2006 of the Gregorian ca…

The Kelly rule fails to maximize growth in a time-changed return setting.

We study the capital growth in gambling with (and without) side information and memory effects. We derive several equalities for gambling, which are of similar form to the Jarzynski equality and its extension to systems with feedback controls. Those relations provide us with new measures to quantify the effects of info…

Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a model for systems as varied as financial instruments and populations. The statistical properties of GBM are complicated by non-ergodicity, which can lead to ensemble averages exhibiting exponential growth while any individual trajectory collapses according to its time-average. A com…

From the stock markets of six countries with high GDP, we study the stock indices, S&P 500 (NYSE, USA), SSE Composite (SSE, China), Nikkei (TSE, Japan), DAX (FSE, Germany), FTSE 100 (LSE, Britain) and NIFTY (NSE, India). The daily mean growth of the stock values is exponential. The daily price fluctuations about the me…

Study on Kähler manifolds connects curvature decay with growth of holomorphic functions.

Consider vector valued harmonic maps of at most linear growth, defined on a complete non-compact Riemannian manifold with non-negative Ricci curvature. For the norm square of the pull-back of the target volume form by such maps, we report a strong maximum principle, and equalities among its supremum, its asymptotic ave…

We introduce a stochastic price model where, together with a random component, a moving average of logarithmic prices contributes to the price formation. Our model is tested against financial datasets, showing an extremely good agreement with them. It suggests how to construct trading strategies which imply a capital g…

Warning signs about the developing economic crisis in Greece were present in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and in the growth of the GDP well before the economic collapse. The growth rate was strongly unstable. On average, in less than 50 years, it decreased 10-folds but after reaching a low minimu…

Mathematical study of excess growth rate connects info theory with finance.

It has been widely observed that capitalization-weighted indexes can be beaten by surprisingly simple, systematic investment strategies. Indeed, in the U.S. stock market, equal-weighted portfolios, random-weighted portfolios, and other naive, non- optimized portfolios tend to outperform a capitalization-weighted index …

Sparse curves on surfaces grow at a specific intermediate rate.

The average and median income dependence on work experience and time is analyzed and modeled for the USA. The original data set providing the mean and median income estimates in 10 year long intervals spans a long time period of almost 35 years ? from 1967 to 2003. A microeconomic model linking personal income, populat…

We present a quantitative characterisation of the fluctuations of the annualized growth rate of the real US GDP per capita growth at many scales, using a wavelet transform analysis of two data sets, quarterly data from 1947 to 2015 and annual data from 1800 to 2010. Our main finding is that the distribution of GDP grow…

We study the asymptotic behavior of the Kähler-Ricci flow on Kähler manifolds of nonnegative holomorphic bisectional curvature. Using these results we prove that a complete noncompact Kähler manifold with nonnegative bounded holomorphic bisectional curvature and maximal volume growth is biholomorphic to complex Euclide…

The paper gauges AGI's impact on GDP growth using mathematical metrics.

Graphs with bounded degrees and non-negative Ollivier-Ricci curvature have subexponential growth and diffusive random walk.

By applying an average method in PDE, we obtain a dichotomy between "constancy" and "infinity" of the warping functions on complete noncompact Riemannian manifolds for an appropriate isometric immersion of a multiply warped product manifold $N_1\times_{f_2} N_2 \times \cdots \times _{f_k} N_k\,$ into a Riemannian mani…

Revisits granular models explaining firm growth rates and sizes.

We relate the existence of many infinite geodesics on Alexandrov spaces to a statement about the average growth of volumes of balls. We deduce that the geodesic flow exists and preserves the Liouville measure in several important cases. The developed analytic tool has close ties to integral geometry.

We introduce the logistic model of consumption growth, which captures a negative feedback loop preventing an unlimited growth of consumption due to finite biophysical resources of our planet. This simple dynamic model allows for derivation of the expression describing the declining long-term tail of a social discount c…

This paper studies a portfolio optimization problem in a discrete-time Markovian model of a financial market, in which asset price dynamics depend on an external process of economic factors. There are transaction costs with a structure that covers, in particular, the case of fixed plus proportional costs. We prove that…

Enhanced Bishop-Gromov theorem for homogeneous and inhomogeneous spaces.

The paper connects convex functions to p-subharmonic functions and proves their equivalence.

Method reconstructs aneurysm growth history from patient parameters using physics-informed autoencoder.

We consider the problem of finding optimal strategies that maximize the average growth-rate of multiplicative stochastic processes. For a geometric Brownian motion the problem is solved through the so-called Kelly criterion, according to which the optimal growth rate is achieved by investing a constant given fraction o…

CV outperforms mean-variance for stock returns, minimizing risk and maximizing growth.

Voluntary insurance contracts constitute a puzzle because they increase the expectation value of one party's wealth, whereas both parties must sign for such contracts to exist. Classically, the puzzle is resolved by introducing non-linear utility functions, which encode asymmetric risk preferences; or by assuming the p…

Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in monetary wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but thei…

In this paper, by combining techniques from Ricci flow and algebraic geometry, we prove the following generalization of the classical uniformization theorem of Riemann surfaces. Given a complete noncompact complex two dimensional Kähler manifold $M$ of positive and bounded holomorphic bisectional curvature, suppose its…

In the framework of applying econophysics ideas in religious topics, the finances of the Antoinist religious movement organized in Belgium between 1920 and 2000 are studied. The interest of investigating financial aspects of such a, sometimes called, sect stems in finding characteristics of conditions and mechanisms un…

Logarithmic regret for continuous-time reinforcement learning.

Network models assume unrealistic idiosyncratic risk, which can be mitigated by allowing for correlated shocks.

In order to investigate whether government regulations against corruption can affect the economic growth of a country, we analyze the dependence between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rates and changes in the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). For the period 1999-2004 on average for all countries in th…

New method improves regression estimates, reducing bias.

In this article we prove two formulas for the topological entropy of an F-optical Hamiltonian flow induced by a C^{\infty} Hamiltonian, where F is a Lagrangian distribution. In these formulas, we calculate the topological entropy as the exponential growth rate of the average of the determinant of the differential of th…

We shall prove that under some volume growth condition, the essential spectrum of the Laplacian contains the interval $[(n-1)^2K/4, \infty)$ if an $n$-dimensional Riemannian manifold has an end and the average of the part of the Ricci curvature on the end which lies below a nonpositive constant $(n-1)K$ converges to ze…

We study capital process behavior in the fair-coin game and biased-coin games in the framework of the game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that if Skeptic uses a Bayesian strategy with a beta prior, the capital process is lucidly expressed in terms of the past average of Reality's moves. From t…

Transformations of macroeconomic data affect machine learning forecasts, especially with regularization and nonlinearity.