Unified R packages for forecast reconciliation of constrained series.
problem Improving accuracy and coherence of forecasts for linearly constrained multiple time series.
method Classical and machine learning-based linear reconciliation approaches for cross-sectional, temporal, and cross-temporal frameworks.
result Unified toolbox for forecast reconciliation in R.
Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.
problem No formal framework for probabilistic reconciliation of count time series.
method Generalizes Bayes' rule for reconciling real-valued and count variables.
result Improves forecast accuracy for count variables compared to Gaussian reconciliation.
Forecast reconciliation improves portfolio risk forecasts, especially when true covariance is known.
problem Improving portfolio risk forecasts using multivariate GARCH models.
method Combining univariate and multivariate forecasts with forecast reconciliation techniques.
result Forecast reconciliation improves over standard multivariate approaches, especially when true covariance is known.
A new method reduces complexity and uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in complex neural networks.
method Condensed Stein Variational Gradient Descent (cSVGD) method.
result Condensed SVGD provides uncertainty quantification on parameters.
Optimal reconciliation keeps some forecasts unchanged in hierarchical forecasting.
problem Keeping some forecasts unchanged in hierarchical forecasting.
method Formulates a method to keep some forecasts unchanged in a hierarchical forecasting system.
result Preserves unbiasedness and non-negativity of forecasts.
REGAIN learns optimal auxiliary directions for forecast reconciliation.
problem Forecast reconciliation from fixed systems; identifying useful auxiliary directions.
method REGAIN learns normalized auxiliary directions, forecasts induced series, and selects directions by loss reduction.
result Gain-selected auxiliary directions improve forecast quality, especially for residual uncertainty.
Proposes a value-oriented forecast reconciliation method for renewables in electricity markets.
problem Forecast reconciliation overlooks the value of forecasts in decision-making, leading to unfair outcomes.
method Value-oriented forecast reconciliation using a Nash bargaining framework and a primal-dual algorithm for parameter estimation.
result Consistently increases profits for all agents involved in an aggregated wind energy trading problem.
This paper extends forecast reconciliation to non-linearly constrained time series.
problem Forecasting time series with non-linear constraints.
method Non-linearly Constrained Reconciliation (NLCR) algorithm that adjusts forecasts to meet non-linear constraints.
result NLCR significantly improves forecast accuracy compared to benchmarks.
Study improves forecasting of aggregated curves in electricity markets.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting aggregated curves like demand and supply in electricity markets.
method Exploits hierarchical structure of aggregated curves, uses reconciliation methods (bottom-up, top-down, linear optimal, aggregated-down).
result Hierarchical reconciliation methods can significantly improve forecast accuracy of aggregated curves.
Proposes a new algorithm for efficient probabilistic reconciliation of forecasts.
problem Ensuring coherence in forecasts for hierarchical time series.
method Bottom-Up Importance Sampling algorithm for any type of forecast distribution.
result Significant improvement over base probabilistic forecasts in experiments.
The problem of multilabel classification when the labels are related through a hierarchical categorization scheme occurs in many application domains such as computational biology. For example, this problem arises naturally when trying to automatically assign gene function using a controlled vocabularies like Gene Ontol…
We introduce a technique to compute probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds on precision and recall for matching algorithms. The bounds require some verified matches, but those matches may be used to develop the algorithms. The bounds can be applied to network reconciliation or entity resolution algorithms, which i…
The study improves prediction regions for hierarchical data using a projection step.
problem Improving prediction regions for hierarchical multivariate data.
method Integrating a projection step in the split conformal prediction (SCP) procedure to reduce prediction regions.
result The resulting prediction regions are globally smaller under both joint and component-wise coverage objectives.
A method for fast, accurate cross-temporal forecasts using machine learning.
problem Inconsistent forecasts across different levels of platform data.
method Non-linear hierarchical forecast reconciliation using machine learning.
result Automated direct production of reconciled forecasts for high-frequency decision making.
Time inconsistency leads to intra-personal conflict and reconciliation strategies.
problem Time inconsistency in dynamic choice problems.
method Rigorous treatment of intra-personal equilibrium in continuous-time settings.
result A new approach to understanding and reconciling intra-personal conflicts.
Proposes a neural network for accurate and reconciled hierarchical time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting and reconciling hierarchical time series data.
method Uses a deep neural network to directly produce accurate and reconciled forecasts, minimizing a customized loss function at training time.
result Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art competitors in hierarchical forecasting on real-world datasets.
THieF improves day-ahead electricity price prediction accuracy by reconciling hourly and block forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting day-ahead electricity prices.
method Temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) reconciling hourly and block forecasts.
result THieF significantly improves accuracy (up to 13%) at all levels of prediction.
RPN unifies various models with a reconciled polynomial network.
problem Unifying diverse models for deep function learning.
method RPN disentangles functions into inner products of expansion and reconciliation functions.
result RPN accurately approximates underlying functions for data distributions.
Study compares local and global models for hierarchical forecasting accuracy.
problem Challenges in hierarchical time series forecasting, especially in accuracy and information utilisation.
method Developed and evaluated local and global forecasting models (GFMs) to exploit cross-series and cross-hierarchies information.
result Global Forecasting Models (GFMs) outperform local models in hierarchical forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.
Novel framework improves wind power forecasts by bundling assets and using machine learning.
problem Inaccurate forecasts of intermittent renewable generation, especially wind power.
method Bundle-Predict-Reconcile (BPR) framework integrating asset bundling, machine learning, and forecast reconciliation.
result Significant improvement in forecast accuracy, especially at the fleet level.
A new hierarchical forecasting method using machine learning improves forecast accuracy.
problem Improving forecast accuracy in hierarchical forecasting systems.
method Non-linear combination of base forecasts, focusing on both accuracy and coherence.
result The proposed method outperforms existing approaches, especially for diverse series.
The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to considering a finite horizon framework. However, assuming infinite exchangeability gives…
When forecasting time series with a hierarchical structure, the existing state of the art is to forecast each time series independently, and, in a post-treatment step, to reconcile the time series in a way that respects the hierarchy (Hyndman et al., 2011; Wickramasuriya et al., 2018). We propose a new loss function th…
Time series data in the retail world are particularly rich in terms of dimensionality, and these dimensions can be aggregated in groups or hierarchies. Valuable information is nested in these complex structures, which helps to predict the aggregated time series data. From a portfolio of brands under HUUB's monitoring, …
Bayesian approach confirms no return predictability for 1926-2004 data, weak evidence for 1953-2021.
problem Investigating return predictability using Bayesian methods.
method Developed a new shrinkage type prior for a model parameter in a VAR system, compared to other estimation methods.
result Bayesian approach outperforms reduced-bias estimator in terms of size and power.
SCORE resolves the robustness vs accuracy trade-off by redefining robust error.
problem The inherent trade-off between robustness and accuracy in adversarial training.
method SCORE defines local equivariance as the ideal robust behavior, leading to a new robust error metric.
result SCORE reconciles robustness and accuracy, improving model performance on RobustBench.
Paper proposes a new method for selecting the best hierarchical forecasting approach.
problem Selecting the best method for reconciling base forecasts in hierarchical time series.
method Conditional hierarchical forecasting using machine learning and time series features.
result Conditional hierarchical forecasting leads to significantly more accurate forecasts, especially at lower levels.
Data of practical interest - such as personal records, transaction logs, and medical histories - are sequential collections of events relevant to a particular source entity. Recent studies have attempted to link sequences that represent a common entity across data sets to allow more comprehensive statistical analyses a…
Bayesian approach for multifile record linkage and duplicate detection.
problem Challenges in merging overlapping datafiles with duplicates.
method Bayesian approach with novel partition representation and loss functions.
result Proposes a flexible prior for partitions and uncertain unresolved portions.
A new hierarchical forecasting method improves overall accuracy.
problem Hierarchical forecasting challenges, especially for intermittent time series.
method Top-down alignment of independent level forecasts using deep learning and tree-based algorithms.
result Improves overall forecasting accuracy compared to existing methods.
Real-time fuel leakage detection framework MOCPD improves accuracy.
problem Early detection of fuel leakage to prevent hazards and losses.
method Memory-based Online Change Point Detection (MOCPD) framework.
result MOCPD outperforms baseline methods in detection accuracy.
In this partly expository monograph we develop a general framework for producing uncountable families of exotic actions of certain classically studied groups acting on the circle. We show that if L is a nontrivial limit group then the nonlinear representation variety Hom(L,Homeo+(S1)) contains u…
We study and generalize in various ways the model of rational expectation (RE) bubbles introduced by Blanchard and Watson in the economic literature. First, bubbles are argued to be the equivalent of Goldstone modes of the fundamental rational pricing equation, associated with the symmetry-breaking introduced by non-va…
We present a simple agent-based model to study the development of a bubble and the consequential crash and investigate how their proximate triggering factor might relate to their fundamental mechanism, and vice versa. Our agents invest according to their opinion on future price movements, which is based on three source…
LLMs cause inconsistent financial outputs, smaller models are more reliable.
problem Inconsistent outputs from LLMs undermine auditability and trust in financial workflows.
method Finance-calibrated deterministic test harness, task-specific invariant checking, model classification, and cross-provider validation.
result Smaller models (Granite-3-8B, Qwen2.5-7B) achieve 100% output consistency, while larger models like GPT-OSS-120B have high drift.
Paper reconciles minimax rates and optimal recovery rates for noisy observations.
problem Estimating a function from noisy observations.
method Develops NLA minimax rates for Besov classes in Lq-norms. result NLA minimax rates continuously depend on noise level and match optimal recovery rates as noise decreases.
Line graph transformation aids graph isomorphism tests by excluding challenging graph properties.
problem Limited theoretical understanding of line graph transformation's impact on GNN models.
method Examined CFI and strongly regular graphs, showing line graph transformation helps WL tests distinguish these graphs.
result Line graph transformation aids WL tests in distinguishing challenging graph properties.
Proposes MGMN for end-to-end graph similarity learning.
problem Lack of cross-level interactions in graph similarity learning.
method Multi-level graph matching network (MGMN) combining node-graph matching and siamese graph neural networks.
result MGMN outperforms state-of-the-art models on graph-graph classification and regression tasks.
The paper explores graphons of line graphs from sparse finite graphs.
problem Estimating graph limits from sparse finite graphs.
method Mapping finite graphs to their line graphs and analyzing graphs with the square-degree property.
result Graphons of line graphs can distinguish between sparse graphs like star graphs and superlinear preferential attachment graphs.
MxPool learns graph features from diverse graphs using a hierarchical structure.
problem Learning graph features from diverse graphs with varying properties and sizes.
method MxPool uses a multiplex structure with multiple graph convolution/pooling networks in a hierarchical learning structure.
result MxPool outperforms state-of-the-art methods on graph classification benchmarks.
Study the geometry of graph product extension graphs.
problem Properties of graph products.
method Introduce and study the extension graph of graph products of groups.
result Extension graph is isomorphic to crossing graph of a quasi-median graph and exhibits asymptotic dimension similar to quasi-trees.
Quasi-transitive graphs quasi-isometric to planar graphs can be upgraded to Cayley graphs.
problem Quasi-transitive graphs quasi-isometric to planar graphs need to be upgraded to Cayley graphs.
method Upgrading a planar graph to a Cayley graph.
result Quasi-transitive graphs quasi-isometric to planar graphs can be upgraded to Cayley graphs.
Customized-GNN generates model-specific for each graph.
problem Graphs in the same dataset have distinct structures.
method Proposes Customized-GNN framework to generate model-specific for each graph.
result Demonstrates effectiveness on various graph classification benchmarks.
Graph embedding leaks sensitive graph properties and subgraphs.
problem Privacy risks in graph embedding sharing.
method Three inference attacks and a defense mechanism.
result High accuracy in inferring graph properties and subgraphs.
Characterizes graphs with leveled embeddings and introduces new graph invariants.
problem Understanding the properties of leveled embeddings in spatial graphs.
method Characterization of graphs with leveled embeddings, introduction of new invariants.
result Characterization of graphs with low level number and determination of specific invariants for complete graphs and complete bipartite graphs.
The paper shows conflict graphs of Petersen family graphs are mostly unbalanced.
problem Understanding the balance of conflict graphs in Petersen family graphs.
method Analyzing maximally planar subgraphs and their conflict graphs.
result All but three strong conflict graphs from Petersen Family Graphs are unbalanced.
Two new methods improve graph embedding without needing a complete graph structure.
problem Graph autoencoders' performance depends on the adjacency matrix quality.
method BAGE and VBAGE: unsupervised graph embedding via adaptive graph learning.
result The methods expand GAEs' applicability to datasets without graph structure.
We define a pseudo-inverse for line graphs using linear integer programming.
problem Not all graphs have a corresponding root graph, making the line graph operation non-invertible.
method Propose a linear integer program to edit the smallest number of edges in the line graph to recover a root graph.
result The pseudo-inverse operation is well-behaved and works in practice as shown by empirical experiments.