Predicting properties of nodes in a graph is an important problem with applications in a variety of domains. Graph-based Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods aim to address this problem by labeling a small subset of the nodes as seeds and then utilizing the graph structure to predict label scores for the rest of the …
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48 results for “graph confidence”
We consider the problem of undirected graphical model inference. In many applications, instead of perfectly recovering the unknown graph structure, a more realistic goal is to infer some graph invariants (e.g., the maximum degree, the number of connected subgraphs, the number of isolated nodes). In this paper, we propo…
Mutual teaching improves graph models with less labeled data.
problem Training graph models with limited labeled data.
method Dual model training with mutual teaching strategy.
result Significant performance improvement with less labeled data.
Simulations evaluating resampling methods for causal discovery: ensemble performance and calibrationstat.ML
Simulation studies show resampling methods can be reliable for causal graph confidence.
problem Determining when causal discovery results can be trusted in real-world settings.
method Evaluation of subsampling and sampling with replacement methods.
result Subsampling and sampling with replacement performed well in indicating graph feature confidence.
Improved time series causal discovery with bootstrap aggregation and confidence measures.
problem Uncertainty estimation in time series causal discovery.
method Bootstrap aggregation and confidence measures for time series causal discovery.
result Bagged-PCMCI+ improves precision and recall compared to PCMCI+.
GUST framework improves self-training by estimating node uncertainty and generating pseudo-labels.
problem Over-confidence in pseudo-labels during self-training.
method Graph-based uncertainty-aware self-training with stochastic node labeling.
result GUST achieves state-of-the-art performance, especially in sparse labeled data settings.
Certainty in Uncertainty: Reasoning over Uncertain Knowledge Graphs with Statistical Guaranteesstat.ML
UnKGCP generates prediction intervals for uncertain knowledge graphs with statistical guarantees.
problem Lack of quantified predictive uncertainty in existing UnKGE methods.
method Proposes extsc{UnKGCP} framework using conformal prediction with a novel nonconformity measure.
result Sharp prediction intervals effectively capture predictive uncertainty in diverse UnKGE methods.
Data-driven prediction of molecular properties presents unique challenges to the design of machine learning methods concerning data structure/dimensionality, symmetry adaption, and confidence management. In this paper, we present a kernel-based pipeline that can learn and predict the atomization energy of molecules wit…
GINNs: Graph-Informed Neural Networks for Multiscale Physicsphysics.comp-ph
GINNs combine deep learning with PGMs for physics-based multiscale systems.
problem Intrinsic computational bottlenecks and lack of sufficient data for QoI estimation.
method Hybrid approach combining deep learning with probabilistic graphical models, informed by structured priors for CVs.
result GINNs produce tight confidence intervals for non-Gaussian QoIs.
Study finds root vertex in large networks with high probability.
problem Finding the root vertex in large growing networks.
method Constructs confidence sets for the root vertex in various random network models.
result Confidence sets of size independent of the number of vertices contain the root vertex with high probability.
Kernel ridge regression inference for nonstandard data.
problem Inferential theory for kernel ridge regression with nonstandard data.
method Constructs valid and sharp confidence sets using anti-symmetric multipliers.
result Develops a test for match effects in school matching mechanisms.
For highly sensitive real-world predictive analytic applications such as healthcare and medicine, having good prediction accuracy alone is often not enough. These kinds of applications require a decision making process which uses uncertainty estimation as input whenever possible. Quality of uncertainty estimation is a …
AGG-UCB uses neural networks to optimize group behaviors in contextual bandits.
problem Optimizing group behaviors in contextual bandits with mutual impacts.
method Introduces Arm Group Graph (AGG) and AGG-UCB algorithm using neural networks and graph neural networks.
result Achieves near-optimal regret bound with over-parameterized neural networks.
Study improves fraud detection in e-commerce with a stacked model combining CNNs, GNNs, and confidence gating.
problem Detecting credit card fraud in online transactions.
method Stacking approach with attention and confidence-driven layers, using DOWA and IOWA operators.
result The method achieves high accuracy and robust generalization in CCF detection.
We study the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem with the graph-based feedback structure introduced by Mannor and Shamir. We analyze the performance of the two most prominent stochastic bandit algorithms, Thompson Sampling and Upper Confidence Bound (UCB), in the graph-based feedback setting. We show that these algor…
New framework assesses LLMs' expertise using nonparametric ranking and confidence diagrams.
problem Evaluating and ranking large language models (LLMs) for alignment and performance.
method Nonparametric contextual ranking, confidence diagram, Gaussian multiplier bootstrap.
result Validated confidence diagram for assessing LLMs' domain-specific expertise.
A novel algorithm minimizes regret in a multi-agent bandit problem with time-varying random graphs and heterogeneous rewards.
problem Minimizing regret in a multi-agent multi-armed bandit problem with time-varying random graphs and heterogeneous rewards.
method Introduces a novel algorithmic framework combining averaging-based consensus with a weighting technique and upper confidence bound.
result Derives optimal instance-dependent regret upper bounds of order in both sub-gaussian and sub-exponential environments.
Tree-Query uses LLMs to discover causal relationships in a transparent, interpretable manner.
problem Error propagation in classical causal discovery methods and opaque, confidence-free behavior of recent LLM-based causal oracles.
method Tree-Query is a tree-structured, multi-expert LLM framework that reduces causal discovery to queries about backdoor paths and dependencies.
result Tree-Query provides interpretable judgments with robustness-aware confidence scores and improves structural metrics over LLM baselines.
We consider the problem of providing nonparametric confidence guarantees for undirected graphs under weak assumptions. In particular, we do not assume sparsity, incoherence or Normality. We allow the dimension to increase with the sample size . First, we prove lower bounds that show that if we want accurate infe…
Study on sample complexity for pure exploration in feedback graph settings.
problem Sample complexity of pure exploration in online learning with feedback graphs.
method Derive instance-specific lower bounds and present asymptotically optimal algorithm TaS-FG.
result TaS-FG is asymptotically optimal and efficient across different graph configurations.
New framework assesses LM uncertainty without thresholding.
problem Uncertainty quantification for LMs, especially comparing different measures.
method Rank-Calibration framework to assess uncertainty and confidence measures.
result Higher uncertainty correlates with lower generation quality.
New bootstraps improve speed and accuracy for graph count functionals.
problem Efficiently counting subgraphs in large graphs.
method Developed two types of multiplier bootstraps: a fast, approximate linear one and a quadratic one for denser graphs.
result Both bootstraps provide valid inference and higher-order accuracy under different graph sparsity conditions.
We propose a graphical model for representing networks of stochastic processes, the minimal generative model graph. It is based on reduced factorizations of the joint distribution over time. We show that under appropriate conditions, it is unique and consistent with another type of graphical model, the directed informa…
Proposes a novel graph self-training method with EM regularization for semi-supervised node classification.
problem Handles noisy graph structures and feature spaces in semi-supervised node classification.
method Introduces an Expectation-Maximization (EM) regularization scheme for uncertainty-aware pseudo-label generation and model retraining.
result Significantly outperforms strong baselines by up to 2.5% in accuracy.
Optimizes functions on manifolds using Gaussian processes and graph models.
problem Optimizing functions on unknown manifolds with limited data.
method Graph Gaussian process surrogate model for sequential optimization.
result Established regret bounds for the proposed algorithm.
This paper proposes a unified framework to quantify local and global inferential uncertainty for high dimensional nonparanormal graphical models. In particular, we consider the problems of testing the presence of a single edge and constructing a uniform confidence subgraph. Due to the presence of unknown marginal trans…
We consider stochastic multi-armed bandit problems with graph feedback, where the decision maker is allowed to observe the neighboring actions of the chosen action. We allow the graph structure to vary with time and consider both deterministic and Erdős-Rényi random graph models. For such a graph feedback model, we fir…
Graph embedding leaks sensitive graph properties and subgraphs.
problem Privacy risks in graph embedding sharing.
method Three inference attacks and a defense mechanism.
result High accuracy in inferring graph properties and subgraphs.
This paper studies uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep spatiotemporal forecasting models.
method Analysis of UQ methods from Bayesian and frequentist perspectives, including statistical decision theory.
result Different UQ methods have different strengths and weaknesses, with Bayesian methods being more robust in mean prediction and frequentist methods providing more extensive coverage.
GraphPPD models graph-level uncertainty using GNN embeddings.
problem Capturing uncertainty in graph-level predictions.
method Variational modelling for posterior predictive distribution.
result Effective uncertainty-aware predictions on graph-level tasks.
We study the problem of identifying the source of a diffusion spreading over a regular tree. When the degree of each node is at least three, we show that it is possible to construct confidence sets for the diffusion source with size independent of the number of infected nodes. Our estimators are motivated by analogous …
Improves GNN prediction sets with conformal prediction for node classification.
problem Lack of predictive uncertainty for GNN models.
method Adapted conformal prediction for graph data, weighting scores based on graph structure.
result Better calibrated and tighter prediction sets than naive conformal prediction.
New algorithm uses GNNs to optimize rewards in graph-structured data.
problem Optimizing rewards in molecule design with graph-structured data.
method Embedding permutation invariance into GNNs and using GNTK for regret bounds.
result First GNN confidence bound and phased-elimination algorithm with sublinear regret.
Deep learning on graph structures has shown exciting results in various applications. However, few attentions have been paid to the robustness of such models, in contrast to numerous research work for image or text adversarial attack and defense. In this paper, we focus on the adversarial attacks that fool the model by…
A UCB algorithm reduces regret in cooperative multi-agent graph bandits.
problem Cooperative multi-agent decision-making on a graph with shared rewards.
method Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm for minimizing regret.
result The Multi-G-UCB algorithm achieves expected regret .
Balancing graph summarization and change detection in streaming data.
problem Balancing compression rate in graph summarization and accuracy in change detection.
method Introducing a probabilistic hierarchical latent variable model and optimizing parameters based on the minimum description length principle to balance the trade-off.
result Guaranteed suppression of Type I error probability (false alarms) in change detection.
New method infers causal effects without knowing control variables.
problem Inference errors when control variables are unknown.
method Proposes a method for inferring causal effects when control variables are unknown.
result Proves method yields asymptotically valid confidence intervals for average causal effects.
DRUM discovers interpretable rules from knowledge graphs for unseen entities.
problem Inductive link prediction on unseen entities and lack of interpretability.
method Differentiable approach using bidirectional RNNs for low-rank tensor approximation.
result DRUM outperforms existing methods in inductive link prediction.
Paper tackles outlier detection in multi-armed bandits, achieving high accuracy with reduced exploration costs.
problem Detecting outlier arms in multi-armed bandit settings.
method Proposes GOLD algorithm based on upper confidence bounds to identify generic outlier arms.
result Achieves 98% accuracy with 83% reduction in exploration cost compared to state-of-the-art techniques.
Develops a framework for inferring causal relationships in networked data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Extracting reliable inference from complex Hawkes network data with uncertainty.
method Statistical inference framework based on maximum likelihood estimation and concentration inequalities of continuous-time martingales.
result Provides a non-asymptotic confidence set for uncertainty quantification.
Indirect attacks can fool graph classifiers even with poisoned neighbors.
problem How to evaluate and defend graph convolutional neural networks against indirect adversarial attacks.
method Proposed a method to generate adversarial perturbations on a single node far from the target.
result 99% attack success rate within two-hops from the target in two datasets.
The recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs) have led to state-of-the-art performances in various applications, including chemo-informatics, question-answering systems, and recommender systems. However, scaling up these methods to huge graphs, such as social networks and Web graphs, remains a challenge. In p…
New method uses path signatures for causal discovery in time series data.
problem Challenges in understanding causal structure from observational time series data.
method Path signatures and signed areas for model-free causal discovery.
result Confidence sequence regions help identify lag/lead causal relationships.
Paper tackles efficient BAI in graph-smooth bandits.
problem Best arm identification with graph smoothness constraint.
method Gradient ascent algorithm for sample complexity.
result Asymptotically optimal strategy for BAI.
Given a finite sequence of graphs, e.g., coming from technological, biological, and social networks, the paper proposes a methodology to identify possible changes in stationarity in the stochastic process generating the graphs. In order to cover a large class of applications, we consider the general family of attribute…
Meta-learner infers subtask graph to adapt quickly to unknown tasks.
problem Adapting to unknown tasks with unknown subtask dependencies in few-shot RL.
method Meta-learner with Subtask Graph Inference (MSGI) and UCB-inspired intrinsic reward.
result Accurately infers latent task parameters and adapts more efficiently.
We study the explore-exploit tradeoff in distributed cooperative decision-making using the context of the multiarmed bandit (MAB) problem. For the distributed cooperative MAB problem, we design the cooperative UCB algorithm that comprises two interleaved distributed processes: (i) running consensus algorithms for estim…
A method for predicting signals on graphs using Gaussian processes and optimal transport.
problem Predicting signals on complex, graph-based inputs with uncertainty quantification.
method Combining regularized optimal transport, dimension reduction, and Gaussian processes indexed by graphs.
result Efficient prediction of signals on graphs with confidence intervals.