Study examines spillovers between BRICS and U.S. staple grain futures markets.
problem Contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects in BRICS staple grain futures markets and their linkages with U.S. markets.
method Examines contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects using econometric models.
result Contemporaneous spillovers dominate, and net spillovers are driven by lagged connectedness. Systemic risk is lower in intra-BRICS markets compared to those including the U.S.
Financial markets analyzed by reducing correlation matrix complexity.
problem Understanding complex financial market correlations.
method Coarse graining Pearson correlation matrices into Guhr matrices by market sectors.
result Significant reduction in the number of relevant variables.
Study examines grain futures connectedness during Russia-Ukraine conflict.
problem Quantile return connectedness of grain futures markets during geopolitical instability.
method Dynamic quantile VAR combined with frequency-domain decomposition.
result Heterogeneous spillovers across quantiles, with strong transmitters and persistent receivers.
Study finds intrinsic multifractality in maize and barley spot markets, but not in wheat and rice.
problem Understanding the complex price behavior of global grain spot markets.
method Utilized multifractal fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to investigate intrinsic multifractality.
result Intrinsic multifractality found in maize and barley sub-indices, but not in wheat and rice.
The paper explains why futures prices often differ from spot prices in grain markets.
problem Non-convergence of futures and spot prices in grains markets.
method Incorporates stochastic spot price and storage cost, solves an optimal double stopping problem.
result Explicit no-arbitrage prices for shipping certificates and futures contracts are derived.
Study finds multifractal cross-correlations between agricultural markets and external uncertainties.
problem Investigating relationships between agricultural spot markets and external uncertainties.
method Multifractal detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis (MF-X-DMA).
result Maize exhibits intrinsic joint multifractality with all uncertainty proxies.
The paper reduces the complexity of financial market correlation matrices to a 2x2 matrix.
problem Reducing the complexity of financial market correlation matrices for easier analysis.
method Sectorial coarse graining followed by averaging over blocks of stocks.
result Averaging over blocks of stocks results in a reduced matrix with specific properties.
We propose a new approach for analyzing price fluctuations in their strongly correlated regime ranging from minutes to months. This is done by employing a self-similarity assumption for the magnitude of coarse-grained price fluctuation or volatility. The existence of a Cramer function, the characteristic function for s…
Neural HMM with AGA captures multi-scale dynamics in financial markets.
problem Capturing multi-scale temporal dynamics in financial markets.
method Parallel multi-resolution encoders, adaptive gating, and multi-head attention.
result Outperforms fixed-resolution baselines in predicting price movements and liquidity shocks.
We analyze the data of the Italian and U.S. futures on the stock markets and we test the validity of the Continuous Time Random Walk assumption for the survival probability of the returns time series via a renewal aging experiment. We also study the survival probability of returns sign and apply a coarse graining proce…
Modeling financial markets with sandpile model to understand price volatility and arbitrage constraints.
problem Understanding price volatility and arbitrage constraints in financial markets.
method Uses a sandpile model to represent information and price changes, linking size of price volatility to the scaling law of avalanches.
result Identifies a structural tension between non-arbitrage condition and price adjustments consistent with a constant Sharpe ratio.
Fine-grained event tagging system for SEC 8-K filings improves precision to 96%.
problem Coarse SEC item codes mislabel routine and significant events.
method Two-stage system tagging 8-K disclosures against a 119-event taxonomy.
result LLM judge finds precision rises to 96% with quality scores.
Unified theory explains market impact using a simplified supply-demand parameter.
problem Understanding the market impact of metaorders and excess volatility.
method Coarse-grained approach with a single parameter ρ to model supply-demand equilibrium and market impact.
result Establishes a connection between excess volatility and order-driven markets through the square-root law.
MM-DREX adapts LLM experts for financial trading via dynamic routing.
problem Challenges of non-stationary financial markets and static expert designs.
method MM-DREX uses a VLM-powered dynamic router to allocate expert weights and designs heterogeneous trading experts.
result Significantly outperforms 15 baselines across key metrics.
Time changes of noise level at Warsaw Stock Market are analyzed using a recently developed method basing on properties of the coarse grained entropy. The condition of the minimal noise level is used to build an efficient portfolio. Our noise level approach seems to be a much better tool for risk estimations than standa…
New model predicts grain boundary migration in metals.
problem Anisotropic grain boundary migration in polycrystals.
method Level set-finite element formulation based on thermodynamics and mechanics.
result First analytical solution for anisotropic grain boundary configurations.
The paper learns optimal auction prices by matching supply and demand.
problem Predicting optimal prices for market clearing.
method Learning framework using auction data to optimize revenue.
result Learned prices outperform other models in auctions and markets.
Machine learning improves coarse-graining of molecular dynamics models.
problem Creating accurate coarse-grained models for molecular dynamics simulations.
method Reformulated coarse-graining as a supervised machine learning problem using statistical learning theory and deep learning (CGnets).
result CGnets can capture multi-body terms and all-atom explicit-solvent free energy surfaces with fewer coarse-grained beads.
New model predicts fine-grained types for high-multiplicity entities.
problem Fine-grained entity typing with high type multiplicity.
method Set-prediction approach to high-multiplicity fine-grained typing.
result Model outperforms baselines on Wikipedia-based corpus.
Temporal coarse-graining of multi-sector default count data generates effective correlation matrices and rank copulas.
problem Explaining the difference in default dependence between monthly and annual aggregation.
method Dynamic low-rank state-space model with AR(1) latent credit-state factors.
result Effective correlation matrices and rank copulas are generated from monthly default count data.
A new uncertainty principle helps traders better understand market activity.
problem Understanding high-frequency market activity and correlation.
method Integrates market activity, order-flow overlap, and response time into a clock-dependent uncertainty principle.
result Six rules of thumb for traders operating at market-making frequencies.
Study reveals multiple core-periphery structures in interbank markets, transforming during financial crises.
problem Understanding the complex structure and transformation of interbank markets during financial crises.
method Novel core-periphery detection method on eMID interbank market data.
result Interbank markets exhibit multiple core-periphery pairs and transition to bipartite structures over short time scales.
ContraSim learns financial headline similarities for market forecasting.
problem Financial market forecasting accuracy improvement.
method ContraSim framework with Weighted Headline Augmentation and WSSCL.
result Improves financial forecasting accuracy by 7%.
We examine the correlation of the limit price with the order book, when a limit order comes. We analyzed the Rebuild Order Book of Stock Exchange Electronic Trading Service, which is the centralized order book market of London Stock Exchange. As a result, the limit price is broadly distributed around the best price acc…
Machine learning generates coarse-grained force fields for molecular dynamics.
problem Creating thermodynamically consistent coarse-grained models for larger systems.
method Hybrid architecture using graph neural networks to learn molecular features.
result Framework reproduces thermodynamics for small biomolecular systems.
Paper presents a framework to infer individual data from aggregate data.
problem Inference of individual-level data from aggregate data due to privacy concerns.
method End-to-end pipeline for processing aggregate data, novel algorithm for reconstruction, machine learning models.
result Valid and usable answers derived from machine learning models using multiple candidate datasets.
We develop an explicit and tractable representation of a twist-grain-boundary phase of a smectic A liquid crystal. This allows us to calculate the interaction energy between grain boundaries and the relative contributions from the bending and compression deformations. We discuss the special stability of the 90 degree g…
Paper presents UrbanFM and UrbanPy models for inferring fine-grained urban flows.
problem Reduce cost of urban flow monitoring while maintaining data accuracy and granularity.
method Develops UrbanFM and UrbanPy models to infer fine-grained urban flows from coarse-grained observations.
result UrbanPy model demonstrates favorable performance for larger-scale inference tasks.
GDML learns effective CG models from all-atom data.
problem Learning effective coarse-grained force fields efficiently.
method Ensemble learning with stratified sampling and GDML.
result GDML yields smaller free energy error than neural networks.
StockEmotions dataset for financial sentiment and emotion analysis.
problem Limited resources for financial sentiment analysis.
method Collects 10,000 English comments from StockTwits, categorizes emotions into 12 classes.
result DistilBERT outperforms other models in sentiment classification, and Temporal Attention LSTM model achieves best performance in multivariate time series forecasting.
Proposes a method to predict stock movements using fine-grained events from finance news.
problem Lack of specific semantic information in coarse-grained events for stock movement prediction.
method Built a finance event dictionary, extracted fine-grained events, combined with stock trade data, and used distant supervision for training.
result Method outperforms all baselines and shows good generalizability.
Framework optimizes battery storage for markets by separating long-term degradation from short-term market dynamics.
problem Intractable computation due to timescale mismatch between battery degradation and market dynamics.
method Approximate dynamic programming with value function approximation and pseudo-time encoding.
result Policy outperforms benchmarks in real-time market scenarios.
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differin…
Auto-encoders learn atomistic to coarse-grained mappings for molecular dynamics.
problem Simulating large systems in molecular dynamics is computationally expensive.
method Auto-encoders learn both atomistic to coarse-grained mappings and the coarse-grained potential energy function.
result Auto-encoders enable efficient simulation of larger systems in molecular dynamics.
A CNN-based method detects and counts corn kernels from images.
problem Manual counting of corn kernels is labor-intensive and prone to error.
method Sliding window approach with CNN for detection and NMS for overlapping removal.
result The method successfully detects and counts kernels with low error.
Model refines coarse spatial data using diverse auxiliary data sets.
problem Tackles the challenge of refining coarse spatial data with varying auxiliary data granularities.
method Proposes a probabilistic model using Gaussian processes to hierarchically incorporate auxiliary data sets of various granularities.
result Can effectively refine coarse-grained spatial data using auxiliary data sets of different granularities.
The paper develops a new framework for pricing and hedging liquidity in crypto markets.
problem Arbitrage and risk management in crypto market making.
method Developed a new mathematical framework using a coordinate system defined by price and intrinsic liquidity.
result Established a linear dependence of asset reserves and value functions on intrinsic liquidity, facilitating arbitrage-free pricing and delta hedging.
Replicated attention model in image classification and fine-grained recognition.
problem Improving attention mechanisms in neural networks.
method Implemented the 'Learn to Pay Attention' model in convolutional neural networks.
result Successfully replicated results in image classification and fine-grained recognition.
Rugby-Bot predicts multiple metrics from a single source using fine-grain data.
problem Complexity of sporting events requires multiple metrics for accurate analysis.
method Multi-task learning with fine-grain spatial data and wide-and-deep learning.
result Predictions are consistent and can be in distribution form.
Fine-grained pretraining improves neural network's ability to learn rare features.
problem Improving generalization in deep learning models.
method Introducing a hierarchical multi-view structure to confine input data distribution.
result Fine-grained pretraining leads to better accuracy on hard downstream test samples.
Data coarse graining improves model performance by filtering out less relevant features.
problem Lossy data transformations lose information but can improve model generalization.
method Data coarse graining schemes that systematically discard features based on relevance to the learning task.
result A 'high-pass' scheme helps models generalize better by filtering out less relevant features.
Coarse-grained pruning improves sparsity efficiency without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Efficiency of hardware design and prediction accuracy in sparse CNNs.
method Quantitative analysis of sparsity regularity vs. accuracy trade-off.
result Coarse-grained pruning achieves similar sparsity ratios and accuracy as fine-grained pruning.
New framework embeds physics in coarse-grained models without big data.
problem Lack of big data and computational demand in data-driven coarse-graining.
method Proposes a novel objective based on reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence that incorporates physics in the form of force fields.
result Generative coarse-grained model predicts atomistic configurations and reveals physicochemical CVs.
Large twist-angle grain boundaries in layered structures are often described by Scherk's first surface whereas small twist-angle grain boundaries are usually described in terms of an array of screw dislocations. We show that there is no essential distinction between these two descriptions and that, in particular, their…
Fine-grained gap-dependent regret bounds for reinforcement learning.
problem Achieving optimal regret bounds for reinforcement learning with suboptimality gaps.
method Developed novel analytical frameworks and refined algorithms for UCB-based and non-UCB-based reinforcement learning.
result Established the first fine-grained gap-dependent regret bounds for both UCB-based and non-UCB-based algorithms.
Deep-learning CNN automates Cu alloy grain size evaluation.
problem Automating the evaluation of Cu alloy grain size to reduce labor and improve accuracy.
method Deep-learning convolutional neural network (CNN) for automated image acquisition and processing.
result Achieved 91.1% classification accuracy on Cu alloy sub-images.
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
problem Understanding effective default correlation in corporate defaults.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths, applied to corporate default-count data.
result Temporal coarse-graining provides a scale-consistent baseline that improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
Tensor network architecture for classification and regression using wavelet transformations.
problem Efficiently performing classification and regression tasks on complex data.
method Tensor network layers based on MERA and MPS, with adaptive fine-graining.
result Adaptive fine-graining improves model performance without loss in accuracy.