A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study examines spillovers between BRICS and U.S. staple grain futures markets.
Study examines grain futures connectedness during Russia-Ukraine conflict.
This paper studies the market phenomenon of non-convergence between futures and spot prices in the grains market. We postulate that the positive basis observed at maturity stems from the futures holder's timing options to exercise the shipping certificate delivery item and subsequently liquidate the physical grain. In …
Pipelined Backpropagation trains large models without batches efficiently.
We analyze the data of the Italian and U.S. futures on the stock markets and we test the validity of the Continuous Time Random Walk assumption for the survival probability of the returns time series via a renewal aging experiment. We also study the survival probability of returns sign and apply a coarse graining proce…
Study measures risk spillovers between US and China's agricultural futures markets.
New model predicts grain boundary migration in metals.
We analyze the market efficiency of 25 commodity futures across various groups -- metals, energies, softs, grains and other agricultural commodities. To do so, we utilize recently proposed Efficiency Index to find that the most efficient of all the analyzed commodities is heating oil, closely followed by WTI crude oil,…
Territorial control is a key aspect shaping the dynamics of civil war. Despite its importance, we lack data on territorial control that are fine-grained enough to account for subnational spatio-temporal variation and that cover a large set of conflicts. To resolve this issue, we propose a theoretical model of the relat…
Machine learning generates coarse-grained force fields for molecular dynamics.
We develop an explicit and tractable representation of a twist-grain-boundary phase of a smectic A liquid crystal. This allows us to calculate the interaction energy between grain boundaries and the relative contributions from the bending and compression deformations. We discuss the special stability of the 90 degree g…
GDML learns effective CG models from all-atom data.
Atomistic or ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations are widely used to predict thermodynamics and kinetics and relate them to molecular structure. A common approach to go beyond the time- and length-scales accessible with such computationally expensive simulations is the definition of coarse-grained molecular models.…
We propose a probabilistic model for refining coarse-grained spatial data by utilizing auxiliary spatial data sets. Existing methods require that the spatial granularities of the auxiliary data sets are the same as the desired granularity of target data. The proposed model can effectively make use of auxiliary data set…
Considering event structure information has proven helpful in text-based stock movement prediction. However, existing works mainly adopt the coarse-grained events, which loses the specific semantic information of diverse event types. In this work, we propose to incorporate the fine-grained events in stock movement pred…
As entity type systems become richer and more fine-grained, we expect the number of types assigned to a given entity to increase. However, most fine-grained typing work has focused on datasets that exhibit a low degree of type multiplicity. In this paper, we consider the high-multiplicity regime inherent in data source…
The ubiquitous deployment of monitoring devices in urban flow monitoring systems induces a significant cost for maintenance and operation. A technique is required to reduce the number of deployed devices, while preventing the degeneration of data accuracy and granularity. In this paper, we present an approach for infer…
Study finds intrinsic multifractality in maize and barley spot markets, but not in wheat and rice.
Fine-grained pretraining improves neural network's ability to learn rare features.
While mobile social apps have become increasingly important in people's daily life, we have limited understanding on what motivates users to engage with these apps. In this paper, we answer the question whether users' in-app activity patterns help inform their future app engagement (e.g., active days in a future time w…
We introduce a hierarchical architecture for video understanding that exploits the structure of real world actions by capturing targets at different levels of granularity. We design the model such that it first learns simpler coarse-grained tasks, and then moves on to learn more fine-grained targets. The model is train…
Data coarse graining improves model performance by filtering out less relevant features.
Large twist-angle grain boundaries in layered structures are often described by Scherk's first surface whereas small twist-angle grain boundaries are usually described in terms of an array of screw dislocations. We show that there is no essential distinction between these two descriptions and that, in particular, their…
New framework embeds physics in coarse-grained models without big data.
Fine-grained gap-dependent regret bounds for reinforcement learning.
Molecular dynamics simulations provide theoretical insight into the microscopic behavior of materials in condensed phase and, as a predictive tool, enable computational design of new compounds. However, because of the large temporal and spatial scales involved in thermodynamic and kinetic phenomena in materials, atomis…
Deep-learning CNN automates Cu alloy grain size evaluation.
Financial markets analyzed by reducing correlation matrix complexity.
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
We introduce a novel personalized Gaussian Process Experts (pGPE) model for predicting per-subject ADAS-Cog13 cognitive scores -- a significant predictor of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) in the cognitive domain -- over the future 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. We start by training a population-level model using multi-modal data …
Sparsity helps reduce the computational complexity of deep neural networks by skipping zeros. Taking advantage of sparsity is listed as a high priority in next generation DNN accelerators such as TPU. The structure of sparsity, i.e., the granularity of pruning, affects the efficiency of hardware accelerator design as w…
ElasTST improves time-series forecasting across varying horizons.
We present a loss function for neural networks that encompasses an idea of trivial versus non-trivial predictions, such that the network jointly determines its own prediction goals and learns to satisfy them. This permits the network to choose sub-sets of a problem which are most amenable to its abilities to focus on s…
FIGARO generates symbolic music with fine-grained control.
Improved investment performance with fine-grained LLM tasks.
CG-BGs combine flow-based models with PMFs to sample large systems efficiently.
We approach the development of models and control strategies of susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic processes from the perspective of marked temporal point processes and stochastic optimal control of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with jumps. In contrast to previous work, this novel perspective is…
We present an algorithm for supervised learning using tensor networks, employing a step of preprocessing the data by coarse-graining through a sequence of wavelet transformations. We represent these transformations as a set of tensor network layers identical to those in a multi-scale entanglement renormalization ansatz…
DistPre predicts traffic speeds efficiently for large networks.
Geometrically reformulates GENERIC stochastic dynamics.
DiAMoNDBack models protein backmapping from coarse-grained Cα traces.
Deep learning improves anomaly detection across various fields.
Framework preserves emergent physics in non-equilibrium systems from particle trajectories.
Temporal aggregation reveals latent default correlation from monthly data.
ECN framework improves training on noisy structured labels.
New method uses normalizing flows to improve force fields for coarse-grained molecular dynamics.
Sporting events are extremely complex and require a multitude of metrics to accurate describe the event. When making multiple predictions, one should make them from a single source to keep consistency across the predictions. We present a multi-task learning method of generating multiple predictions for analysis via a s…
New method uses LLMs to generate detailed scientific hypotheses.