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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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285583110 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for gradual shifts

Self-training improves gradual domain adaptation with unlabeled data.

problem Improving machine learning models' adaptability to gradually shifting data distributions.
method Proved upper bounds on self-training error, highlighted the importance of regularization and label sharpening, and demonstrated algorithmic insights.
result Self-training works well for gradual shifts, especially with small Wasserstein-infinity distance.

IUPM monitors machine learning models under gradual shifts using optimal transport and active labeling.

problem Gradual distribution shifts lead to unnoticed accuracy declines in machine learning models.
method Incremental Uncertainty-aware Performance Monitoring (IUPM) using optimal transport and active labeling.
result IUPM outperforms existing baselines in gradual shift scenarios and guides label acquisition more effectively.

Paper proposes a method to design molecules with specific properties.

problem Designing molecules with desired chemical and biological properties.
method Energy-based model in latent space, SGDS algorithm for gradual distribution shifting.
result Method achieves strong performances on various molecule design tasks.

BRPC online Bayesian calibration handles gradual and abrupt system changes.

problem Aligning model outputs with field observations in evolving systems.
method Bayesian Recursive Projected Calibration (BRPC) for streaming data under simulator mismatch and nonstationarity.
result Improves calibration accuracy under gradual changes and robustness under abrupt regime shifts.

The paper tackles gradual domain adaptation with manifold-constrained DRO, showing error bounds across distributions.

problem Gradual domain adaptation challenge with manifold-constrained data distributions.
method Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) with an adaptive Wasserstein radius.
result Theoretical bounds on classification error across distributions, demonstrating error propagation dynamics.

A new method uses normalizing flows for gradual domain adaptation.

problem Difficulty in domain adaptation when source and target domains have a large gap.
method Proposes using normalizing flows to learn a transformation from target to Gaussian mixture distribution.
result Improves classification performance and mitigates the problem of gradual self-training failure.

STAD adapts models to evolving time-based data shifts.

problem Gradual distribution shifts over time challenge existing test-time adaptation methods.
method Bayesian filtering method that learns time-varying dynamics in hidden features.
result STAD excels in handling small batch sizes and label shift on real-world data.

Gradual domain adaptation improves model transfer between domains with intermediate training.

problem Challenges in unsupervised domain adaptation when distribution shifts are large.
method Gradual self-training using intermediate domains along the Wasserstein geodesic.
result GOAT framework generates intermediate domains for improved adaptation.

A feature-weighted mean shift algorithm improves clustering in high-dimensional data.

problem Clustering high-dimensional data with traditional mean shift algorithms.
method Feature-weighted mean shift algorithm.
result The algorithm outperforms conventional mean shift and preserves computational simplicity.

DeRegiME forecasts with regime structure, improving probabilistic predictions across various time series.

problem Probabilistic forecasting discards residual uncertainty, and distribution shifts are hard to capture.
method DeRegiME uses a sparse variational Gaussian process with a nonstationary regime-mixing kernel to separate latent uncertainty regimes.
result DeRegiME improves NLPD by 20.3% on average across benchmarks, with gains on CRPS and MSE.

DGSAM improves domain generalization by minimizing individual sharpness.

problem Improving domain generalization models that perform well on unseen target domains.
method Shifts DG paradigm toward minimizing individual sharpness across source domains.
result DGSAM reduces performance variance across domains with less computational overhead.

Drift-Resilient TabPFN learns to adapt to changing data distributions.

problem Real-world data often shifts over time, degrading model performance.
method In-Context Learning with a Prior-Data Fitted Network, using structural causal models.
result Significant performance improvements across various datasets.

First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…

2016-08-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep neural networks have excelled on a wide range of problems, from vision to language and game playing. Neural networks very gradually incorporate information into weights as they process data, requiring very low learning rates. If the training distribution shifts, the network is slow to adapt, and when it does adapt…

2018-02-28abs ↗pdf ↗

A TTA framework improves forecasting accuracy in non-stationary time series.

problem Improving forecasting accuracy in non-stationary time series.
method Normalization-based test-time adaptation for causal timeseries forecasting and direction classification.
result Normalization-based TTA improves forecasting error in synthetic gradual drift and can even hurt in aggressive norm-only adaptation in financial markets.

New model detects gradual changes in processes more accurately.

problem Traditional change-point models fail to identify gradual changes effectively.
method Introduces a Bayesian change-dynamic model using hierarchical models for gradual change detection.
result The model identifies gradual changes faster and more accurately than traditional models.

Study tackles distribution shift in combinatorial settings using matrix completion techniques.

problem Tackling distribution shift in combinatorial settings with rigorous statistical guarantees.
method Develops novel algorithms and theoretical results for extrapolating to test distributions not covered in training.
result Achieves bilinear combinatorial extrapolation under gradual spectral decay in high-dimensional data.

A new method guides neural networks to focus on specific features of input data.

problem Training neural networks to consider specific features of input data.
method Focus-and-Expand ( ax) method: Gradual manipulation of input features.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results in bias removal and image classification tasks.

Gradually Truncated Log-normal distribution - Size distribution of firms Abstract Many natural and economical phenomena are described through power law or log- normal distributions. In these cases, probability decreases very slowly with step size compared to normal distribution. Thus it is essential to cut-off these di…

2001-11-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Usually considered as a classification problem, entity resolution (ER) can be very challenging on real data due to the prevalence of dirty values. The state-of-the-art solutions for ER were built on a variety of learning models (most notably deep neural networks), which require lots of accurately labeled training data.…

2018-10-29abs ↗pdf ↗

This study develops a dynamic inverse optimization framework to recover hidden, time-varying preferences from observed allocation trajectories.

problem The gap between classical optimization theory and real-world practice, especially in the presence of drift and shocks.
method Dynamic inverse optimization framework using a drift-aware estimator grounded in convex analysis and online learning theory.
result Sharp static and dynamic regret bounds for the framework, demonstrating its responsiveness to gradual drift and sudden shocks.

The state-of-the-art solutions for Aspect-Level Sentiment Analysis (ALSA) were built on a variety of deep neural networks (DNN), whose efficacy depends on large amounts of accurately labeled training data. Unfortunately, high-quality labeled training data usually require expensive manual work, and may thus not be readi…

2019-06-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimizing news headlines is important for publishers and media sites. A compelling headline will increase readership, user engagement and social shares. At Yahoo Front Page, headline testing is carried out using a test-rollout strategy: we first allocate equal proportion of the traffic to each headline variation for a…

2019-08-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved analysis of gradual domain adaptation with better generalization bounds.

problem Improving generalization in target domain through intermediate unlabeled domains.
method Analyzed gradual self-training under more general assumptions, proving a new generalization bound.
result Proved a significantly improved generalization bound of ε0 + O(TΔ + T/√n) + ˜O(1/√nT).

ProteuS generates synthetic financial data with regime changes for testing drift detection.

problem Simulating concept drift in financial markets for model evaluation.
method ARMA-GARCH models fitted to ETF data, generating synthetic time series with predefined regime changes.
result Generated datasets reveal the complexity of detecting and adapting to market regime changes.

This paper describes audEERING's submissions as well as additional evaluations for the One-Minute-Gradual (OMG) emotion recognition challenge. We provide the results for audio and video processing on subject (in)dependent evaluations. On the provided Development set, we achieved 0.343 Concordance Correlation Coefficien…

2018-05-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Algorithm balances learning and coverage for multi-robots over unknown fields.

problem Balancing learning and coverage for multi-robots over unknown, nonuniform sensory fields.
method DSLC algorithm that schedules learning and coverage epochs, using Gaussian Process modeling and coverage regret analysis.
result Upper bound on expected cumulative coverage regret provided for DSLC.

Dark Experience improves continual learning with a simple, strong baseline.

problem General Continual Learning in scenarios where tasks are not sequential and offline training is not possible.
method Mixing rehearsal with knowledge distillation and regularization.
result Dark Experience outperforms consolidated approaches and leverages limited resources.

We develop a mixture procedure for multi-sensor systems to monitor data streams for a change-point that causes a gradual degradation to a subset of the streams. Observations are assumed to be initially normal random variables with known constant means and variances. After the change-point, observations in the subset wi…

2015-09-01abs ↗pdf ↗

New concept of mixture complexity helps detect gradual clustering changes.

problem Determining the number of clusters in mixture models with overlaps and weight biases.
method Introducing mixture complexity (MC) as a new measure of cluster size, defined from information theory.
result MC can detect gradual clustering changes, allowing earlier detection and finer distinction.

Meta-SAGE improves deep RL scalability for CO tasks by adapting pre-trained models to larger-scale problems.

problem Improving scalability of deep reinforcement learning models for combinatorial optimization tasks.
method Meta-SAGE combines a scale meta-learner and scheduled adaptation with guided exploration to adjust model parameters for larger-scale problems.
result Meta-SAGE outperforms previous methods and significantly improves scalability in CO tasks.

Paper models entropy-based impact of soft errors on neural network inference.

problem Estimating impact of radiation-induced faults on neural network inference.
method Entropy-based statistical models for SEU and MBU across layers.
result Accurate models to evaluate error-resiliency of neural network topologies.

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) achieve state-of-the-art results in many sequence-to-sequence modeling tasks. However, RNNs are difficult to train and tend to suffer from overfitting. Motivated by the Data Processing Inequality (DPI), we formulate the multi-layered network as a Markov chain, introducing a training met…

2017-08-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Despite the advancement of supervised image recognition algorithms, their dependence on the availability of labeled data and the rapid expansion of image categories raise the significant challenge of zero-shot learning. Zero-shot learning (ZSL) aims to transfer knowledge from labeled classes into unlabeled classes to r…

2018-05-18abs ↗pdf ↗

It is challenging for stochastic optimizations to handle large-scale sensitive data safely. Recently, Duchi et al. proposed private sampling strategy to solve privacy leakage in stochastic optimizations. However, this strategy leads to robustness degeneration, since this strategy is equal to the noise injection on each…

2018-09-30abs ↗pdf ↗

HOPE uses Hilbert space to deconstruct deep network representations.

problem Deconstructing learned representations in deep networks is challenging.
method Introduces Hilbert Operator for Progressive Encoding (HOPE) to deconstruct network weights.
result HOPE provides an unbiased approach to network compression and fine-tuning.