A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Modeling market dynamics with informed and uninformed traders and fads.
problem Optimizing market making in a market with fads, informed, and uninformed traders.
method Characterizing the optimal liquidity provision problem in a market with fads, informed, and uninformed traders, considering both complete and partial information.
result The price of liquidity is a function of the proportion of informed traders, and strategies ignoring fads underperform.
The estimation of probabilities of default (PDs) for low default portfolios by means of upper confidence bounds is a well established procedure in many financial institutions. However, there are often discussions within the institutions or between institutions and supervisors about which confidence level to use for the…
We extend the theory of asymmetric information in mispricing models for stocks following geometric Brownian motion to constant relative risk averse investors. Mispricing follows a continuous mean--reverting Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process. Optimal portfolios and maximum expected log--linear utilities from terminal wealth f…
A technique called 'prior laundering' uses legacy reconstructions to create uncertainty in Bayesian inverse problems.
problem Uncertainty in Bayesian inverse problems when data is uninformative.
method Using an archive of legacy reconstructions to create uncertainty in the posterior distribution, averaging the legacy posterior over measurements.
result The uncertainty reported in the posterior is inherited from the legacy reconstructions, not from the data itself.
We propose a new family of optimization criteria for variational auto-encoding models, generalizing the standard evidence lower bound. We provide conditions under which they recover the data distribution and learn latent features, and formally show that common issues such as blurry samples and uninformative latent feat…
This paper investigates the equilibrium interactions between trading targets and private information in a multi-period Kyle (1985) market. There are two investors who each follow dynamic trading strategies: A strategic portfolio rebalancer who engages in order splitting to reach a cumulative trading target and an uncon…
Traditional market makers are losing their importance as automated systems have largely assumed the role of liquidity provision in markets. We update the model of Glosten and Milgrom (1985) to analyze this new world: we add multiple securities and introduce an automated market maker who uses the relationships between s…
We implement a market microstructure model including informed, uninformed and heuristic-driven investors, which latter behave in line with loss-aversion and mental accounting. We show that the probability of informed trading (PIN) varies significantly during 2008. In contrast, the probability of heuristic-driven tradin…
Variational inference is a powerful tool for approximate inference. However, it mainly focuses on the evidence lower bound as variational objective and the development of other measures for variational inference is a promising area of research. This paper proposes a robust modification of evidence and a lower bound for…
This paper studies an optimal trading problem that incorporates the trader's market view on the terminal asset price distribution and uninformative noise embedded in the asset price dynamics. We model the underlying asset price evolution by an exponential randomized Brownian bridge (rBb) and consider various prior dist…
We consider trading against a hedge fund or large trader that must liquidate a large position in a risky asset if the market price of the asset crosses a certain threshold. Liquidation occurs in a disorderly manner and negatively impacts the market price of the asset. We consider the perspective of small investors whos…
We consider a continuous-time financial market that consists of securities available for dynamic trading, and securities only available for static trading. We work in a robust framework where a set of non-dominated models is given. The concept of semi-static completeness is introduced: it corresponds to having exact re…
Consumers with low demand, like households, are generally supplied single-phase power by connecting their service mains to one of the phases of a distribution transformer. The distribution companies face the problem of keeping a record of consumer connectivity to a phase due to uninformed changes that happen. The exact…