A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper measures the intensity of implicit government guarantees using PMC index model.
Study examines how governance, corruption, and R&D affect economic development.
Adaptive AI delegation framework for dynamic decision authority allocation.
Proposes a method to learn policies from offline data with reduced bias.
We investigate the relationship between market efficiency of rice futures transaction in Osaka and the Japanese government intervention in rice distributions by directly buying and selling rice during the interwar period, from the middle 1910s to 1939, considering the context of "discretion versus rules." We use a time…
AI framework for automated policy-making connects with econometrics and social choice.
Proposes a taxonomy for economic policies.
Money analyzed as a multidimensional tensor for better economic policy.
Analyzes securitization impacts on monetary and fiscal policies.
Agents buy and sell services. All services are of equal quality. Buyers choose sellers at random. Monetary and fiscal policies are imposed by a central bank and a central government. Credit is supplied by a commercial banking system. Propensities to buy, sell, and lend depend on account balances, interest rates, tax ra…
This study evaluates prewar Japanese financial market efficiency using time-varying models.
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…
Study examines UK firms' financial performance linked to corporate governance.
Consider the problem of a government that wants to reduce the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio of a country. The government aims at choosing a debt reduction policy which minimises the total expected cost of having debt, plus the total expected cost of interventions on the debt ratio. We model this problem as…
Study finds implicit government guarantee improves municipal investment bond ratings.
Optimal bailout policies identified for financial institutions using AI.
This study analyzes public debts and deficits between European countries. The statistical evidence here seems in general to reveal that sovereign debts and government deficits of countries within European Monetary Unification-in average- are getting worse than countries outside European Monetary Unification, in particu…
News on inflation and monetary policy impacts US household inflation expectations.
On-policy reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have high sample complexity while off-policy algorithms are difficult to tune. Merging the two holds the promise to develop efficient algorithms that generalize across diverse environments. It is however challenging in practice to find suitable hyper-parameters that gove…
Optimization methods are used to determine equilibria of investment in cryptocurrencies. The basic assumptions involve existence of a core group (the "wealthy") that fears the loss of substantial assets through government seizure. Speculators constitute another group that tends to introduce volatility and risk for the …
In the current environment of financial distress, many governments are likely to soon become major holders of financial assets, but the policy debate focuses only on the likelihood and extent of short-term market stabilization. This paper shows that government intervention and propping up are likely to lead to long-ter…
Corporate governance struggles to curb fraud in a globalized economy.
To achieve the ambitious aims of the Paris climate agreement, the majority of fossil-fuel reserves needs to remain underground. As current national government commitments to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are insufficient by far, actors such as institutional and private investors and the social movement on divestmen…
We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal dynamic framework. Central bank policies are designed for growth without excess inflation. However, unemployment, investment, consumption, and inflation are interlinked. Understanding dynamic…
We empirically test the effects of unanticipated fiscal policy shocks on the growth rate and the cyclical component of real private output and reveal different types of asymmetries in fiscal policy implementation. The data used are quarterly U.S. observati ons over the period 1967:1 to 2011:4. In doing so, we use both …
DeepPPMNet forecasts EMS demand and performs causal analyses for policy-making.
New AI governance framework tackles risks in finance.
GAICF proposes a framework for governing generative AI in banking.
GAICF proposes a framework for managing generative AI risks in banking.
Policy gradient converges to globally optimal policy in nearly linear-quadratic systems.
We present an elementary analysis of the dynamical aspects of the GDP / government surplus multiplier with relevance to the assessment of a country's debt repayment policy. We show the (at first) counter intuitive result that in order to reduce the Debt/GDP ratio, countries with high Debt to GDP should go into further …
Paper proposes FPG algorithm for unbiased off-policy PG estimation.
Adaptive policies for multi-agent RL improve adaptiveness in changing environments.
Feed in tariff (FiT) is one of the most efficient ways that many governments throughout the world use to stimulate investment in renewable energies (REs) technology. For governments, financial management of the policy is very challenging as that it needs a considerable amount of budget to support RE producers during th…
We study a risk sensitive control version of the lifetime ruin probability problem. We consider a sequence of investments problems in Black-Scholes market that includes a risky asset and a riskless asset. We present a differential game that governs the limit behavior. We solve it explicitly and use it in order to find …
We study a model of a corporation which has the possibility to choose various production/business policies with different expected profits and risks. In the model there are restrictions on the dividend distribution rates as well as restrictions on the risk the company can undertake. The objective is to maximize the exp…
Wasserstein Policy Learning for Distributional Outcomes
Policy shifts between Trump and Biden impact ESG investments, creating volatility.
Recent trends in Agent Computational Economics research, envelop a government agent in the model of the economy, whose decisions are based on learning algorithms. In this paper we try to evaluate the performance of simulated annealing in this context, by considering a model proposed earlier in the literature, which has…
Foreign policy analysis has been struggling to find ways to measure policy preferences and paradigm shifts in international political systems. This paper presents a novel, potential solution to this challenge, through the application of a neural word embedding (Word2vec) model on a dataset featuring speeches by heads o…
Bayesian method infers local rules for collective animal movement.
Developed a neural topic model for classifying COVID-19 disinformation.
A government has to finance a risk for its population. It shares the charges among the population with a fixed scale based on economic criteria. Various organisms have to collect and to redistribute fairly the subsidies. Under these conditions, when the size of the organisms is varied, the distribution's laws of the cr…
Study explores reinforcement learning in a complex game environment, analyzing rule inference and policy learning.
The paper tackles safe reinforcement learning with convex regularization.
New trading policies preserve robust gains in presence of transaction costs.
We propose a neural information processing system which is obtained by re-purposing the function of a biological neural circuit model, to govern simulated and real-world control tasks. Inspired by the structure of the nervous system of the soil-worm, C. elegans, we introduce Neuronal Circuit Policies (NCPs), defined as…
This study shows how trade policy uncertainty affects stock-T bill correlations.