This paper examines how regional trade agreements affect global trade relationships.
problem The relationship between regional trade agreements and global trade purity.
method Defined and decomposed synthesized trade resistance, separated natural and artificial factors, used expectation maximization algorithm to optimize parameters, and quantified trade purity indicator.
result Regional trade agreements contribute to the relative prosperity of EU and NAFTA countries, but weaken the role of trade unions and accelerate multilateral trade liberalization.
Point source detection at low signal-to-noise is challenging for astronomical surveys, particularly in radio interferometry images where the noise is correlated. Machine learning is a promising solution, allowing the development of algorithms tailored to specific telescope arrays and science cases. We present DeepSourc…
All the connections, pure toward the nilpotent structure, are found. Examples of manifolds, for which the curvature tensor is pure or hybrid, are given. For a manifold of B-type a necessary and sufficient condition for purity of the curvature tensor is proved. It is verified that the conformal change of the metric of a…
Non-autoregressive method speeds up protein folding prediction 23 times.
problem Generating protein sequences with higher order interactions.
method Discrete diffusion conditioned on 3D structure using ProteinMPNN.
result 23 times speed up in inference without performance loss.
The paper proposes a method to identify high-quality financial patterns using entropy.
problem Extracting reliable short-term patterns from noisy financial data.
method Entropy-assisted framework for clustering and pruning patterns.
result High-quality patterns with low local entropy and historical profitability.
Graph auto-encoders improve financial clustering using news and stock data.
problem Improving clustering of financial entities using multiple data sources.
method Applying graph deep learning to a finance graph with news co-occurrence and stock price data.
result Dual data sources (news and stock price) improve clustering purity to 64% compared to 32% and 42% for single data sources.
We provide a new local class-purity theorem for Lipschitz continuous DNN classifiers. In addition, we discuss how to achieve classification margin for training samples. Finally, we describe how to compute margin p-values for test samples.
Optimal transport and neural networks improve trade modeling accuracy.
problem Capturing subtler drivers of trade beyond supply and demand.
method Employing optimal transport and deep neural networks to learn a time-dependent cost function from data.
result Consistently outperforms traditional gravity models in accuracy.
Trade finance history traced from medieval origins to modern markets.
problem Evolution and standardization of trade finance products.
method Historical analysis of market structures and regulatory changes.
result Global trade finance market evolved from local to centralized, then decentralized.
Many modern clustering methods scale well to a large number of data items, N, but not to a large number of clusters, K. This paper introduces PERCH, a new non-greedy algorithm for online hierarchical clustering that scales to both massive N and K--a problem setting we term extreme clustering. Our algorithm efficiently …
The large-scale organization of the world economies is exhibiting increasingly levels of local heterogeneity and global interdependency. Understanding the relation between local and global features calls for analytical tools able to uncover the global emerging organization of the international trade network. Here we an…
This study analyzes global oil trade networks to assess their efficiency and robustness.
problem Dynamic monitoring and warning of international trade risks in global oil trade.
method Constructing unweighted and weighted global oil trade networks (OTNs) using UN Comtrade data from 1988 to 2017, and applying complex network theories.
result Efficiency of oil flows increases with complexity of OTNs, and weighted efficiency indicators highlight major events.
QNA uses quantum-inspired density operators to diagnose market dependence and structural risk.
problem Lack of unified operator representation for market dependence and structural risk diagnostics.
method Quantum Network of Assets (QNA) framework using density operators.
result QNA entropy remains strongly related to covariance spectral entropy but becomes distinct with multi-feature rolling trajectories.
We examine how the structure of the world trade network has been shaped by globalization and recessions over the last 40 years. We show that by treating the world trade network as an evolving system, theory predicts the trade network is more sensitive to evolutionary shocks and recovers more slowly from them now than i…
We present a large catalog of optically selected galaxy clusters from the application of a new Gaussian Mixture Brightest Cluster Galaxy (GMBCG) algorithm to SDSS Data Release 7 data. The algorithm detects clusters by identifying the red sequence plus Brightest Cluster Galaxy (BCG) feature, which is unique for galaxy c…
Mathematical model predicts international trade and global economy dynamics.
problem Understanding complex international trade and economy interactions.
method Developed a mathematical model for non-equilibrium processes in open systems.
result Predicted model accurately reflects international trade and economy.
Model shows worldwide trade crises can be localized or global, depending on trade balance.
problem Understanding and predicting worldwide trade crises.
method Modeling worldwide trade network using Google matrix analysis and bankruptcy threshold.
result Crisis contagion is localized for high trade balance, global for low trade balance.
QuantNet learns global market trends to improve trading strategies.
problem Developing global trading strategies from multiple markets' data.
method QuantNet integrates transfer and meta-learning to learn market-agnostic trends and market-specific strategies.
result QuantNet outperformed top baseline strategies by 51% Sharpe and 69% Calmar ratios.
Our work sheds new light on the role of oil prices in shaping the world economy by investigating flows of goods and services through global value chains between 1960 and 2011, by means of Markov Chain and network analysis. We show that over that time period the international division of labor and trade patterns are tig…
Geometric observables detect financial regime shifts with high accuracy.
problem Detecting regime shifts in financial markets.
method Extracted four geometric observables from equity-index returns and evaluated them against various baseline methods.
result The Berry Phase Rate achieves an unbiased out-of-sample median Cohen's d of 0.72, significantly reducing false alarms.
The study classifies normal subgroups of mapping class groups of surfaces with Cantor subsets.
problem Understanding the structure of normal subgroups in mapping class groups of surfaces with specific subsets.
method Proves two structure theorems: purity and inertia, characterizing normal subgroups.
result Characterizes finite-type normal subgroups of mapping class groups of surfaces with Cantor subsets.
With globalization, countries are more connected than before by trading flows, which currently amount to at least 36 trillion dollars. Interestingly, approximately 30-60 percent of global exports consist of intermediate products. Therefore, the trade flow network of a particular product with high added values can be re…
Globalization processes interweave economic structures at a worldwide scale, trade playing a central role as one of the elemental channels of interaction among countries. Despite the significance of such phenomena, measuring economic globalization still remains an open problem. More quantitative treatments could improv…
RegMixMatch optimizes Mixup for semi-supervised learning by integrating high- and low-confidence samples.
problem Mixup degrades SSL performance by compromising artificial labels purity.
method RegMixMatch integrates high- and low-confidence samples, uses class-aware Mixup, and mitigates confirmation bias.
result RegMixMatch achieves state-of-the-art performance in SSL benchmarks.
Model forecasts global stock market volatility using dynamic graphs and all trading days.
problem Enhance forecasting accuracy and practical utility in global stock market volatility.
method Spatial-temporal graph neural network architecture to capture volatility spillover effect.
result Forecasting performance surpasses baseline models in all scenarios.
New method maps global value chains at product level from trade data.
problem Lack of detailed product-level value chain information in existing datasets.
method Machine learning and trade theory applied to international trade data.
result Approximate product-level value chain information inferred from trade patterns.
In this paper we develop a methodology to analyze and compare multiple global networks. We focus our analysis on the relation between human migration and trade. First, we identify the subset of products for which the presence of a community of migrants significantly increases trade intensity. To assure comparability ac…
Develops a new theory of localization in algebraic geometry.
problem Localization of cohomological theories on closed subsets.
method Categorical and algebro-geometric approach, focusing on torsors and translation groupoids.
result Found that localization often results in a torsor of supported refinements rather than a localized class.
Paper proposes a new MAR model for global economic forecasting.
problem Joint modeling of economic and financial variables across countries.
method Sparse matrix autoregressive model with trade network integration.
result Sparse component differentiates systematic and idiosyncratic cross-predictability.
WS-II algorithm segments trajectories with high accuracy.
problem Trajectory segmentation for diverse data sources.
method Supervised learning with sliding window analysis.
result WS-II outperforms other methods in all datasets.
Globalization is one of the central concepts of our age. The common perception of the process is that, due to declining communication and transport costs, distance becomes less and less important. However, the distance coefficient in the gravity model of trade, which grows in time, indicates that the role of distance i…
Analysis shows preference for Chinese yuan in global trade network.
problem Analyzing the preference of countries to trade in US dollars or Chinese yuan.
method Mathematical analysis of world trade network using Ising spin interactions.
result Majority of countries prefer trading in Chinese yuan due to network structure.
We address the problem of gauging the influence exerted by a given country on the global trade market from the viewpoint of complex networks. In particular, we apply the PWP method for computing indirect influences on the world trade network.
Graph learning categorizes DeFi services into similar functionalities.
problem Identifying similar financial services in decentralized finance protocols.
method Graph representation learning (GRL) to categorize smart contract blocks into clusters.
result Purity of clustering reaches .888 in the best-case scenario.
Quantifying the importance and power of individual nodes depending on their position in socio-economic networks constitutes a problem across a variety of applications. Examples include the reach of individuals in (online) social networks, the importance of individual banks or loans in financial networks, the relevance …
Trade is a fundamental pillar of economy and a form of social organization. Its empirical characterization at the worldwide scale is represented by the World Trade Web (WTW), the network built upon the trade relationships between the different countries. Several scientific studies have focused on the structural charact…
Decision trees can be biased towards minority class, contrary to belief.
problem Bias in decision trees towards minority class in imbalanced datasets.
method Critical evaluation of past literature, specific conditions analysis, tree-fitting adjustments, and post-hoc calibration methods.
result Decision trees can be biased towards minority class under specific conditions, not always towards majority.
Continuous-time model shows insider trading constraints impact market dynamics.
problem Trading constraints faced by insiders in continuous-time models.
method Proved global existence of equilibrium with terminal trading constraint.
result Equilibrium model aligns with empirical market behaviors.
Odd-dimensional Riemannian manifolds admit pure spin-c Killing spinors if and only if they are α-Sasakian.
problem Odd-dimensional Riemannian manifolds admitting pure spin-c Killing spinors
method Using complex spinorial forms
result Proving an extension of a well-known result by A. Moroianu
We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade imbalances of the European countries. These measures are the network (or indire…
Banks must manage their trading books, not just value them. Pricing includes valuation adjustments collectively known as XVA (at least credit, funding, capital and tax), so management must also include XVA. In trading book management we focus on pricing, hedging, and allocation of prices or hedging costs to desks on an…
Study predicts global trade impacts using deep learning during the COVID-19 period.
problem Forecasting global trade impacts during the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Developed a sustainable prediction process using Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning model.
result Accurately predicted daily imports and exports for the next 180 days during the pandemic.
Study reveals trade dynamics in dry bulk shipping networks, highlighting their randomness and periodic changes.
problem Understanding the randomness and periodic changes in dry bulk shipping networks.
method Analysis of micro-level trade flow data from 2015 to 2023, focusing on grain, coal, and iron ore networks.
result Dry bulk shipping networks exhibit small-world phenomena and periodic life cycles, influenced by importing ports and global events.
Brazil proposes a new BRICS trade currency to dominate international trade.
problem Dominance of BRICS currency in international trade.
method Mathematical model of influence battle between three currencies, using trade flows and weights in global trade.
result By 2012, about 58% of countries preferred trading with the BRICS currency.
We present a new model for prediction markets, in which we use risk measures to model agents and introduce a market maker to describe the trading process. This specific choice on modelling tools brings us mathematical convenience. The analysis shows that the whole market effectively approaches a global objective, despi…
In this note we study the bilateral merchandise trade flows between 186 countries over the 1948-2005 period using data from the International Monetary Fund. We use Pajek to identify network structure and behavior across thresholds and over time. In particular, we focus on the evolution of trade "islands" in the a world…
This paper shows hypercommutative algebras on Calabi-Yau manifolds are formal.
problem Formality of hypercommutative algebras on Calabi-Yau manifolds.
method Using purity of mixed Hodge structures.
result The canonical hypercommutative algebra on compact Calabi-Yau manifolds is formal.
Paper predicts international trade flows using machine learning and factorization models.
problem Predicting international bilateral trade flows with PTAs.
method Two-stage approach combining SHAP Explainer and Factorization Machine models.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy and deeper insights into trade dynamics.