A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Forecast predicts US recession in 2017, global economic slowdown, and eventual growth.
The accurate characterization of the business cycles in the nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems in the time of globalization represents a formidable research problem. The central banks and other financial institutions make their decisions on the minimum capital requirements, countercyclical capital buffer …
Paper introduces economic Carnot cycles in Roegenian economics.
Emerging economies use countercyclical policies to manage crises and dominant currencies.
Modeling business cycles via collective risk fluctuations in economic agents' risk space.
The paper analyzes early signs of the 2007-2008 financial crisis in world trade.
Machine learning predicts US and EuroZone business cycles with high accuracy.
Study finds economic cycle affects bank loan recovery rates.
Study uses geometric algebra to analyze credit cycles, revealing dangerous feedback loops.
We have analyzed the Indices of Industrial Production (Seasonal Adjustment Index) for a long period of 240 months (January 1988 to December 2007) to develop a deeper understanding of the economic shocks. The angular frequencies estimated using the Hilbert transformation, are almost identical for the 16 industrial secto…
A microscopic approach to macroeconomic features is intended. A model for macroeconomic behavior under heterogeneous spatial economic conditions is reviewed. A birth-death lattice gas model taking into account the influence of an economic environment on the fitness and concentration evolution of economic entities is nu…
Current economic theories miss most of economic dynamics.
In this study, the fluctuation-dissipation theory is invoked to shed light on input-output interindustrial relations at a macroscopic level by its application to IIP (indices of industrial production) data for Japan. Statistical noise arising from finiteness of the time series data is carefully removed by making use of…
Business cycles affect startup valuations, both directly and indirectly.
We propose a dynamical model for business cycle based on an optimal DI model. In the model there exists a conserved quantity, which corresponds to the total energy in a dynamical system. We found that the business cycle with the period 6 or 7 years is nicely reproduced, since the model predicts a periodic motion in the…
Modeling GDP growth rates using Lévy flights with confining potential.
Masanao Aoki developed a new methodology for a basic problem of economics: deducing rigorously the macroeconomic dynamics as emerging from the interactions of many individual agents. This includes deduction of the fractal / intermittent fluctuations of macroeconomic quantities from the granularity of the mezo-economic …
The paper proposes a mechanism for business cycles using coupled real economy and stock market dynamics.
Unified theory explains housing cycle across metros, showing credit expansion impacts.
Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of …
Tall wheatgrass outperforms rye in energy and environmental metrics, marginally improving economic viability.
We study association between macroeconomic news and stock market returns using the statistical theory of copulas, and a new comprehensive measure of news based on the indexing of news wires. We find the impact of economic news on equity returns to be nonlinear and asymmetric. In particular, controlling for economic con…
The major study by Bordo and Helbing (2003) analyses the business cycle in Western economies 1881-2001. They examine four distinct periods in economic history, and conclude that there is a secular trend towards greater synchronisation for much of the 20th century. Their analysis, in common with the standard economic li…
Is the present economic and financial crisis similar to some previous one? It would be so nice to prove that universality laws exist for predicting such rare events under a minimum set of realistic hypotheses. First, I briefly recall whether patterns, like business cycles, are indeed found, and can be modeled within a …
We educe a perspective on how best to regulate the bank of tomorrow in frames of debate launched by the International Centre for Financial Regulation and Financial Times. Our goal is to create a conceptual framework for policymakers and regulators to shape the international financial system in century of globalization …
Concurrent engineering taking into account product life-cycle factors seems to be one of the industrial challenges of the next years. Cost estimation and management are two main strategic tasks that imply the possibility of managing costs at the earliest stages of product development. This is why it is indispensable to…
This paper proposes an alternative to the classical price-adjustment mechanism (called "tâtonnement" after Walras) that is second-order in time. The proposed mechanism, an analogue to the damped harmonic oscillator, provides a dynamic equilibration process that depends only on local information. We show how such a proc…
The sectoral synchronization observed for the Japanese business cycle in the Indices of Industrial Production data is an example of synchronization. The stability of this synchronization under a shock, e.g., fluctuation of supply or demand, is a matter of interest in physics and economics. We consider an economic syste…
We describe the innovations in finances, introduced over the recent decades, and analyze most of the business and regulatory challenges, faced by the financial industry, because of the present disruptive changes in the global capital markets. We use the integrative thinking approach to formulate the new central bank st…
The aim of this paper is to construct a natural Riemann-Lagrange differential geometry on 1-jet spaces, in the sense of nonlinear connections, generalized Cartan connections, d-torsions, d-curvatures, jet electromagnetic fields and jet Yang-Mills energies, starting from some given non-linear evolution DEs systems model…
The determinants of the velocity of money have been examined based on life-cycle hypothesis. The velocity of money can be expressed by reciprocal of the average value of holding time which is defined as interval between participating exchanges for one unit of money. This expression indicates that the velocity is govern…
The article proposes a dynamic model for a company's life cycle under competitive influence.
We show that a simple model of a spatially resolved evolving economic system, which has a steady state under simultaneous updating, shows stable oscillations in price when updated asynchronously. The oscillations arise from a gradual decline of the mean price due to competition among sellers competing for the same reso…
We consider dynamics of financial markets as dynamics of expectations and discuss such a dynamics from the point of view of phenomenological thermodynamics. We describe a financial Carnot cycle and the financial analogue of a heat machine. We see, that while in physics a perpetuum mobile is absolutely impossible, in ec…
ML models predict stock prices poorly during recessions.
Model explains stock price bubbles through debt crises and financial crashes.
Early warning signs of Greece's economic crisis were present in GDP growth rate instability.
Model quantifies how global economic shocks propagate through interconnected trade and investment networks.
Model credit ratings using economic states with Markov chains.
Unified framework models credit cycles and systemic risk.
Financial volatility risk and its relation to a business cycle-related intrinsic time is addressed through a multiple round evolutionary quantum game equilibrium leading to turbulence and multifractal signatures in the financial returns and in the risk dynamics. The model is simulated and the results are compared with …
The paper proposes a new model for predicting and analyzing economic variables.
Paper uses non-linear dimension reduction for better economic forecasting.
The study examines tail dependence between global economic uncertainty and BRICS currencies using high-frequency data.
In the current era of worldwide stock market interdependencies, the global financial village has become increasingly vulnerable to systemic collapse. The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the necessity of understanding and quantifying interdependencies among the world's economies, developing new effective …
Study proposes a new resilience metric for stock market performance analysis.
Study shows EU countries have worsening debts and deficits.
This work presents an empirical study of the evolution of the personal income distribution in Brazil. Yearly samples available from 1978 to 2005 were studied and evidence was found that the complementary cumulative distribution of personal income for 99% of the economically less favorable population is well represented…