The paper introduces GAER to assess market feasibility under geopolitical and institutional constraints.
problem Feasibility of adaptive market efficiency under heterogeneous institutional and geopolitical conditions.
method Structural framework integrating adaptive market theory, institutional economics, and political economy.
result GAER as a diagnostic indicator for portfolio construction feasibility.
Geopolitical and geoeconomic shocks affect sovereign risk differently, with distinct transmission channels.
problem Understanding how geopolitical and geoeconomic shocks impact sovereign credit risk.
method Daily panel data of 42 economies over 2018-2025; semistructural framework; Shapley-Taylor decomposition; machine learning predictions; placebo and sign-restricted SVAR evidence.
result Geopolitical shocks primarily increase sovereign credit spreads through direct repricing, while geoeconomic shocks mainly affect spreads through financial conditions and policy uncertainty.
This study analyzes oil market dynamics using information-theory metrics and finds geopolitical events impact market structure.
problem Analyzing informational efficiency of crude oil market during geopolitical events.
method Used information-theory-derived quantifiers (permutation entropy and permutation statistical complexity) to capture market dynamics.
result Geopolitical events impact the underlying dynamical structure of the oil market.
Identifies community structure in international food trade networks.
problem Understanding how international food trade networks connect countries.
method Analysis of multi-layer network, econometric models.
result Probability of country pairs being in the same food trade community depends more on geopolitical and economic factors than on economic size.
Study models systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
problem Systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
method Dynamic Time Warping, Temporal Graph Neural Network, Agent-Based Model.
result Geopolitical shocks cause more systemic damage than bank failures.
Study analyzes global public sentiment on DeFi from 2012-2022.
problem Global public sentiment on DeFi is understudied.
method Sentiment analysis, spatial econometrics, clustering, topic modeling.
result Economic development significantly influences DeFi engagement, especially after 2015.
Hybrid model improves geopolitical conflict forecasting.
problem Forecasting geopolitical events from sparse, bursty data.
method Sparse Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) + Variational Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (VNNGP).
result Consistently outperforms standalone TFT in long-range horizons.
Analyzes Indian chemical industry post-Covid.
problem Global uncertainty impacts chemical industry performance.
method Fundamental analysis of key players and trends.
result Various geopolitical and macroeconomic trends shape industry performance.
Study finds multifractal cross-correlations between agricultural markets and external uncertainties.
problem Investigating relationships between agricultural spot markets and external uncertainties.
method Multifractal detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis (MF-X-DMA).
result Maize exhibits intrinsic joint multifractality with all uncertainty proxies.
Study shows negative war news correlates with increased stock market volatility.
problem Understanding the impact of geopolitical events on financial markets.
method Used BERT model for sentiment analysis and GARCH model for volatility forecasting.
result Negative news sentiment during geopolitical crises is associated with increased stock market volatility.
Study improves carbon price forecasting using quantile regression and feature selection.
problem Accurately predicting carbon prices influenced by geopolitical, social, and economic factors.
method Collect and analyze various influencing factors, select significant features, and use Sparse Quantile Group Lasso and Adaptive Sparse Quantile Group Lasso for robust predictions.
result Proposed methods outperform existing ones and provide a complete profile of future carbon prices.
The paper uses machine learning to predict the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
problem Quantifying the impact of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
method Selected economic indexes, created datasets, and used machine learning (Linear Regression) for forecasting.
result The model accurately predicted the effects of the Ukraine crisis on financial markets.
Study uses APT and QR to identify risk factors affecting crude oil returns.
problem Determining the risk factors impacting crude oil returns.
method Employed Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Quantile Regression.
result Identified key risk factors: industrial production, inflation, energy prices, yield curve shape, and economic policy uncertainty.
Export bans during pandemic worsen medical supply shortages globally.
problem Impact of export restrictions on medical goods during pandemic.
method Model of shock diffusion through international trade network.
result Export bans are counterproductive, making most countries worse off.
Research uses PGMs to forecast crude oil prices by condensing data into a graphical model.
problem Forecasting the price of crude oil due to its economic significance and numerous influencing factors.
method Condensing various crude oil factors into a graphical model using probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). Experimented with Python libraries to construct models.
result Developed a probabilistic framework for accurate crude oil price forecasting.
Study examines business costs of Gulf crisis on Qatar and neighbors.
problem Implications of the 2017 Gulf Crisis on regional business and geopolitics.
method Comparative analysis of stock market performances before and after the blockade, focusing on volatility and financial interconnectedness.
result The Gulf crisis had adverse impacts on Qatar and its neighbors, but Qatar's resilience strategy was successful.
Study creates a global living index to assess quality of life.
problem Long-term impacts of global economic changes on living conditions.
method Machine learning framework combining socio-economic factors.
result Developed a practical tool for policymakers to identify areas needing improvement.
Study examines Bitcoin price formation beyond fundamental sources.
problem Understanding Bitcoin price formation beyond traditional factors.
method Bayesian quantile regression to analyze Bitcoin price and its determinants.
result Identified three groups of determinants influencing Bitcoin price under different market conditions.
Investor attention predicts global equity market volatility during Ukraine invasion.
problem Predicting global equity market volatility during geopolitical events.
method Event-specific attention indices based on Google Trends, analyzed across 51 global equity markets.
result Investor attention significantly predicts volatility in countries with higher economic openness to Russia and closer to it.
Study quantifies financial contagion risks in supply chains.
problem Supply chain shocks contribute to financial losses.
method Multi-layer network framework, micro-dataset of Hungarian firms.
result Supply chain shocks amplify financial losses by 4-3x.
PAGAN uses GANs to model market uncertainty for better portfolio optimization.
problem High market efficiency makes traditional prediction models ineffective.
method Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to model market uncertainty.
result PAGAN optimizes portfolios by minimizing risk and maximizing returns.
LexNLP processes legal and regulatory texts for structured information.
problem Processing structured information from legal and regulatory texts.
method Natural language processing and machine learning for legal and regulatory text.
result LexNLP extracts over eighteen types of structured information from legal and regulatory texts.
Understanding international trade is a fundamental problem in economics -- one standard approach is via what is commonly called the "gravity equation", which predicts the total amount of trade Fij between two countries i and j as Fij=GDijMiMj, where G is a constant, Mi,Mj denote …
This paper develops dynamic risk measures for fluctuating market volatility.
problem Complex and heightened market volatility requires new risk measures.
method Introduces risk measures on Lp(⋅) space with variable exponent. result Established dual representations for these risk measures.
SQR Averaging improves probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate short-term price forecasting in electricity markets.
method Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging.
result SQR Averaging leads to profit increases of up to 3.5% in day-ahead power trading.
Study examines grain futures connectedness during Russia-Ukraine conflict.
problem Quantile return connectedness of grain futures markets during geopolitical instability.
method Dynamic quantile VAR combined with frequency-domain decomposition.
result Heterogeneous spillovers across quantiles, with strong transmitters and persistent receivers.
Study examines how Trump tariffs and COVID-19 affected financial market efficiency.
problem Impact of geopolitical and systemic shocks on financial market efficiency.
method Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis applied to financial asset returns.
result Trump tariffs had moderate but observable effects on market efficiency, while COVID-19 induced substantial changes.
Orchestrating the Twin Transition in GBS: A Socio-Technical Framework
problem MNCs' need to harmonize digital efficiency with environmental stewardship
method Technology Roadmapping (TRM) with ICT-centric innovation ecosystem toolkit
result Central 'operational airlock' for GBS in harmonizing digital and environmental transformation
The Financial Chaos Index models stock market volatility across three regimes based on mutual price fluctuations.
problem Capturing regime-dependent volatility in stock markets.
method Developed a regime-switching framework using the Financial Chaos Index (FCIX) and elastic net regression.
result Identified three market regimes: low-chaos, intermediate-chaos, and high-chaos, each with distinct volatility characteristics.
This paper measures financial market resilience in China and identifies key uncertainties.
problem Measuring financial market resilience in China.
method Quantitative analysis of total financial market and sub-markets, Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness approach.
result Financial market resilience in China is event-driven and influenced by geopolitical risks, economic and trade policy uncertainty, and U.S.-China tensions.
Study analyzes market co-movements in critical mineral investments using change point detection and cross-sectional analysis.
problem Market dynamics in critical mineral investments during significant global events.
method Combines change-point detection (PELT algorithm) with cross-sectional analysis on ESG-ranked ETFs.
result Investors herded during market downturns and shifted to anti-herding after positive news and geopolitical shocks.
Study analyzes crude oil futures markets using visibility graphs to understand their structure and dynamics.
problem Understanding the structure and dynamics of crude oil futures markets during global challenges.
method Visibility graph analysis of daily and high-frequency data.
result Crude oil futures markets exhibit small-world properties and assortative mixing, with unique sensitivities to global disruptions.
Understanding the mutual relationships between information flows and social activity in society today is one of the cornerstones of the social sciences. In financial economics, the key issue in this regard is understanding and quantifying how news of all possible types (geopolitical, environmental, social, financial, e…
This paper analyzes DeepWalk and node2vec for community detection in large networks.
problem Community detection in large, sparse networks.
method Low-dimensional network embedding algorithms (DeepWalk and node2vec) applied to random walk segments.
result The performance of DeepWalk and node2vec in recovering communities depends on the length of random walk segments and sparsity of the network.
Study shows how firms adapt to systemic risk during crises, revealing key players and trade volume predictors.
problem Understanding systemic risk in local production networks during crises.
method Analyzing Hungarian production network dynamics from 2015 to 2022 using a null model and empirical data.
result Firms' adaptive behavior during crises leads to more resilient economies, with trade volume being a significant predictor.
This paper analyzes ETFs with Taiwan exposure, finding heavy tails and asymmetric volatility.
problem Heavy tails and asymmetric volatility in Taiwan-related ETFs.
method Tail-risk diagnostics, asymmetric volatility modeling, and portfolio optimization under mean--variance and CVaR criteria.
result CVaR optimization produces more concentrated allocations, favoring SMH during the post-COVID AI-driven expansion.
Paper evaluates deadline-ILS on insider trading contracts, finding it distinguishes signals from noise.
problem Deadlines in insider trading contracts and information leakage detection.
method Empirical evaluation using FFIC dataset, hazard-rate estimation, cross-market wallet analysis.
result Deadline-ILS distinguishes signal from proxy artefact, with a significant shift in magnitude.
We present the symmetric thermal optimal path (TOPS) method to determine the time-dependent lead-lag relationship between two stochastic time series. This novel version of the previously introduced TOP method alleviates some inconsistencies by imposing that the lead-lag relationship should be invariant with respect to …
Proposes a method to incorporate current market conditions in VaR and stress testing.
problem Inaccurate VaR and stress testing under changing market conditions.
method Clusters market conditions using Variational Inference (VI) and historical data weighting.
result Proposed approach provides more accurate insights into portfolio risk under near-term market changes.
Develops a deep multi-factor model for factor investing with clear financial insights.
problem Lack of interpretability and unclear financial insights in non-linear factor models.
method Industry and market neutralization modules, graph attention modules, factor-attention module.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in factor investing with real-world stock market data.
Factor Engine simplifies financial factor computation and analysis in Python.
problem Efficient computation and analysis of financial factors.
method Modular, extensible Python library with decorators, integrates with data science ecosystem.
result Mispricing factors computed by Factor Engine and Stata implementation are highly similar.
New risk factors improve stress testing accuracy.
problem Improving stress testing accuracy with new risk factors.
method Adapted PCA and autoencoders for dimension reduction and interpretation.
result Aggregated risk factors enhance stress testing outcomes.
New criterion ensures recovery of latent factors in NMF with mild conditions.
problem Identifying latent factors in nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) under mild conditions.
method Proposed a new identification criterion based on the scatteredness of one factor's rows in the nonnegative orthant.
result Latent factors can be provably identified from the NMF model with minimal structural assumptions.
New statistical factors improve portfolio risk estimation.
problem Improving estimation of portfolio risk using new statistical factors.
method Matrix factor models and statistical methods (partial F test, double selection LASSO).
result New statistical factors add explanatory power in asset pricing.
Introduces factor risk measures to assess risk relative to multiple factors.
problem Measuring risk relative to multiple factors.
method Introduces a double-argument mapping as a risk measure to assess risk relative to a vector of factors.
result Characterizes various types of factor risk measures including distortion, quantile, linear, and coherent measures.
AlphaLogics mines market logic to generate interpretable alpha factors.
problem Complex, opaque alpha factors from factor mining overlook market logic.
method Market Logic Mining, Factor Generation and Optimization, Market Logic Generation and Optimization.
result AlphaLogics improves predictive metrics and risk-adjusted returns over baselines.
This work tackles fast and accurate low-rank factorization of compressed data.
problem Accurately and efficiently computing low-rank matrix or tensor factorizations from compressed data.
method Factorization in the compressed domain followed by reconstruction of original factors.
result Provable recovery of original factors under certain conditions.
Method learns shared and specific factors in multi-study gene expression data.
problem Understanding shared and specific factors in high-dimensional multi-study data.
method Nonlinear multi-study factor model with sparse variational autoencoder.
result Method recovers meaningful shared and specific factors in platelet gene expression data.