Algorithm selects variables and bandwidths for geographically weighted regression.
problem Estimating variable subsets and bandwidths for geographically weighted regression.
method Mathematical programming-based approach integrating variable selection and bandwidth estimation.
result Proposed algorithm provides stable spatially varying patterns with competitive explanatory power.
GWRBoost improves GWR for better spatial relationship quantification.
problem Underfitting in GWR for complex data and lack of explainable quantification.
method Geographically weighted gradient boosting model using localized additive model and gradient boosting optimization.
result Significant improvement in RMSE and AICc compared to classic GWR.
GeoConformal predicts spatial uncertainty without relying on specific models.
problem Measuring uncertainty in spatial predictions to enhance model credibility.
method GeoConformal Prediction integrates geographical weighting into conformal prediction.
result GeoConformal achieves higher coverage rates in uncertainty assessment compared to Bootstrap methods.
We define a class of Euclidean distances on weighted graphs, enabling to perform thermodynamic soft graph clustering. The class can be constructed form the "raw coordinates" encountered in spectral clustering, and can be extended by means of higher-dimensional embeddings (Schoenberg transformations). Geographical flow …
This paper begins to explore the determinants of the topological properties of the international - trade network (ITN). We fit bilateral-trade flows using a standard gravity equation to build a "residual" ITN where trade-link weights are depurated from geographical distance, size, border effects, trade agreements, and …
SXL embeds spatial autocorrelation into neural networks for better geographic data learning.
problem Difficulties in learning spatial effects for neural networks in geographic data.
method SXL uses auxiliary tasks and autoregressive embeddings to learn spatial autocorrelation.
result SXL improves neural network training in unsupervised and supervised learning tasks.
The paper predicts an Efficient Market Property for the equity market, where stocks, when denominated in units of the growth optimal portfolio (GP), have zero instantaneous expected returns. Well-diversified equity portfolios are shown to approximate the GP, which explains the well-observed good performance of equally …
SX-GeoTree improves spatially coherent explanations in geospatial regression trees.
problem Capturing spatial dependence and producing robust explanations in tabular prediction models.
method Integrates three objectives: impurity reduction, spatial residual control, and explanation robustness via modularity maximization on a consensus similarity network.
result Improves residual spatial evenness and doubles attribution consensus (modularity: Fujian 0.19 vs 0.09; Seattle 0.10 vs 0.05).
New core inflation measure predicts future headline inflation.
problem Creating a better measure of core inflation for timely policy decisions.
method Assemblage Regression, a nonnegative ridge regression that optimizes subcomponent weights.
result Significant improvements in forecasting medium-term inflation developments.
Spatially weighted conformal prediction improves uncertainty quantification in house price models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in automated valuation models with spatial dependencies.
method Survey and demonstration of various spatially weighted approaches to adjust conformal prediction confidence sets.
result Spatially weighted CP makes confidence sets more consistently calibrated across geographical regions.
This paper explores the relationships between migration and trade using a complex-network approach. We show that: (i) both weighted and binary versions of the networks of international migration and trade are strongly correlated; (ii) such correlations can be mostly explained by country economic/demographic size and ge…
In this paper, we consider the problem of predicting demographics of geographic units given geotagged Tweets that are composed within these units. Traditional survey methods that offer demographics estimates are usually limited in terms of geographic resolution, geographic boundaries, and time intervals. Thus, it would…
Mathematical analysis shows Delisle-Euler map methods are optimal.
problem Comparing ancient and modern map drawing methods.
method Analyzing similarities and differences between ancient and modern map drawing methods.
result Delisle-Euler map methods are optimal among conical maps.
Study improves motor insurance claim prediction using geographic data.
problem Limited location identifiers in public actuarial datasets.
method Zone-level modeling framework with environmental and orthoimagery data.
result Geographic information improves MTPL claim prediction accuracy.
Neural networks are capable of learning rich, nonlinear feature representations shown to be beneficial in many predictive tasks. In this work, we use such models to explore different geographical feature representations in the context of predicting colorectal cancer survival curves for patients in the state of Iowa, sp…
Study analyzes global public sentiment on DeFi from 2012-2022.
problem Global public sentiment on DeFi is understudied.
method Sentiment analysis, spatial econometrics, clustering, topic modeling.
result Economic development significantly influences DeFi engagement, especially after 2015.
Accurately predicting when and where ambulance call-outs occur can reduce response times and ensure the patient receives urgent care sooner. Here we present a novel method for ambulance demand prediction using Gaussian process regression (GPR) in time and geographic space. The method exhibits superior accuracy to MEDIC…
Cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects know no geographical limits, overruns are a global phenomenon. Nevertheless, the size of cost overruns varies with location. In the Netherlands, cost overruns appear to be smaller compared to the rest of the world. This paper tests whether Dutch projects perform signif…
Paper presents a method for geographic ratemaking using spatial embeddings.
problem Lack of historical loss data in areas with high exposures.
method Construct spatial features within a complex representation model and use them as inputs to a predictive model.
result Predictions have smaller bias and variance than other spatial interpolation models.
SE-KGE embeds spatial data into KGs for better spatial reasoning.
problem Spatially explicit KG embeddings for geographic tasks.
method Location-aware KG embedding model SE-KGE.
result SE-KGE outperforms baselines on DBGeo dataset.
Image compression techniques reveal network structure for shipping box optimization.
problem Designing and planning shipping box networks between nodes.
method Image transformations and Bayesian reinforcement learning.
result Learned network structure can recommend future connectivity.
WBCP improves conformal prediction for distribution shifts using weighted Dirichlet posteriors.
problem Handling distribution shifts in conformal prediction.
method Generalizes Bayesian Quadrature Conformal Prediction (BQ-CP) to arbitrary importance-weighted settings.
result WBCP maintains coverage guarantees while providing richer uncertainty information.
A scalable Bayesian linear regression framework for spatial data.
problem Scalable methodologies for analyzing large spatial datasets.
method Conjugate Bayesian linear regression framework.
result Exact sampling from joint posterior distribution without iterative algorithms.
STICC clusters geographic objects considering both spatial contiguity and attributes.
problem Discovering repeated geographic patterns with spatial contiguity.
method Spatial Toeplitz Inverse Covariance-Based Clustering (STICC) method.
result STICC significantly outperforms baseline methods in adjusted rand index and macro-F1 score.
Meta-data from photo-sharing websites such as Flickr can be used to obtain rich bag-of-words descriptions of geographic locations, which have proven valuable, among others, for modelling and predicting ecological features. One important insight from previous work is that the descriptions obtained from Flickr tend to be…
We give an explicit algorithm and source code for combining alpha streams via bounded regression. In practical applications typically there is insufficient history to compute a sample covariance matrix (SCM) for a large number of alphas. To compute alpha allocation weights, one then resorts to (weighted) regression ove…
A new SBM for non-negative zero-inflated edge weights in networks.
problem Modeling international trading networks with non-negative zero-inflated edge weights.
method Restricted Tweedie distribution and nodal information accounting.
result Efficient two-step algorithm for estimating covariate effects.
Study uses trajectory embedding to measure place function similarity at fine spatial granularity.
problem Measuring place function similarity at fine spatial granularity.
method Trajectory embedding to reduce dimensions and measure similarity of place functions.
result Embedding similarity can be a metric proxy for place functions at fine spatial granularity.
We develop a cross-sectional research design to identify causal effects in the presence of unobservable heterogeneity without instruments. When units are dense in physical space, it may be sufficient to regress the "spatial first differences" (SFD) of the outcome on the treatment and omit all covariates. The identifyin…
In the multiple linear regression setting, we propose a general framework, termed weighted orthogonal components regression (WOCR), which encompasses many known methods as special cases, including ridge regression and principal components regression. WOCR makes use of the monotonicity inherent in orthogonal components …
Enhances linear regression with Kalman filter for loss minimization.
problem Minimizing loss in linear regression models.
method Integrates Kalman filter and SGD for optimal weight updates.
result Develops optimal linear regression equation with minimum area under curve.
Improved RTM uses integer weights to reduce computation and increase interpretability.
problem Lack of interpretability in nonlinear regression models.
method Integer weighted RTM clauses, combined with a novel learning scheme.
result Significantly reduced computation cost with improved accuracy.
Gradient boosting for spatial regression models improves prediction accuracy.
problem Spatial data with autoregressive disturbances.
method Model-based gradient boosting algorithm for spatial regression models.
result Improves prediction accuracy on out-of-sample spatial data.
Adversarial training makes logistic regression weight loss landscapes sharper.
problem Understanding why adversarial training sharpens the weight loss landscape in logistic regression.
method Theoretical analysis of linear logistic regression model with L2 norm constraints, and experiments on ResNet18.
result Adversarial training sharpens the weight loss landscape in linear logistic regression models.
Gradient descent with random weights in linear regression analyzed for various noise types.
problem Analyzing the impact of random noise on gradient descent in linear regression.
method Gradient descent with randomly weighted data points, various weighting distributions, geometric moment contraction.
result Characterization of implicit regularization and non-asymptotic convergence bounds.
Geography effect is investigated for the Chinese stock market including the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, based on the daily data of individual stocks. The Shanghai city and the Guangdong province can be identified in the stock geographical sector. By investigating a geographical correlation on a geographical pa…
The effects of weather on agriculture in recent years have become a major global concern. Hence, the need for an effective weather risk management tool (i.e., weather derivatives) that can hedge crop yields against weather uncertainties. However, most smallholder farmers and agricultural stakeholders are unwilling to p…
Study reveals centralization in Bitcoin transactions involving retail users.
problem Centralization and bias in Bitcoin transaction data.
method Heuristic classification of Bitcoin users, weekly activity pattern analysis.
result Most real transactions involve Frequent Receivers, centralizing the ecosystem.
New method generates geolocated synthetic populations from real data.
problem Generating synthetic populations with explicit geographic coordinates.
method Mapping coordinates into a latent space using Normalizing Flows (NF), then combining with other features in a Variational Autoencoder (VAE).
result NF+VAE architecture outperforms existing methods in generating geolocated synthetic populations.
Proposes a new method to improve regression models with reweighted samples.
problem Improves regression models' performance under low sample sizes and covariate perturbations.
method Reparametrizes sample weights using a doubly non-negative matrix and solves the reweighted estimate efficiently.
result Adversarial reweighting strategy delivers promising results on various datasets.
The objective of this paper is to fill a gap in the literature on internationalization, in relation to the absence of objective and measurable performance indicators on the process of how firms sequentially enter external markets. To that end, this research develops a quantitative tool that can be used as a performance…
Novel characterization of augmented balancing weights combining outcome and weighting models.
problem Improving estimation accuracy in machine learning models with balancing weights.
method Characterization of augmented balancing weights as linear models, extending to ridge and lasso regression.
result Equivalence and closed-form expressions for specific model choices, providing insights into performance.
Proposes FSM-IRL to learn invariant network representations considering feature and structural shifts.
problem Spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics lead to OOD generalization issues in geographic networks.
method Introduces FSM-IRL model that accounts for feature and structural distribution shifts using causal attention and reweighting.
result Demonstrates strong learning capabilities on geographic and social network datasets in OOD scenarios.
In the economic literature, geographic distances are considered fundamental factors to be included in any theoretical model whose aim is the quantification of the trade between countries. Quantitatively, distances enter into the so-called gravity models that successfully predict the weight of non-zero trade flows. Howe…
We analyze optimal weighted ridge regression in overparameterized linear models.
problem Optimal regularization in overparameterized linear regression models.
method Generalized ridge regression with weighted regularization.
result The optimal regularization parameter can be negative in overparameterized settings.
Unified approach to linear regression using covariance fitting for optimal weights.
problem Finding optimal weights for linear regression models when weights are unknown.
method Covariance fitting SPICE-methodology to obtain data-adaptive weights.
result Tuned versions of known regularized estimators are unified under a common approach.
Lagrange's map construction ideas influenced later mathematicians.
problem Improving geographical map construction methods.
method Analyzing the impact of Lagrange's memoir on subsequent mathematical works.
result Lagrange's ideas were influential in later mathematical developments, particularly in geography.
Study predicts adverse events in Afghanistan using time series data.
problem Predicting the number of negative events in Afghanistan's theater of war.
method Regression analysis on time series data, non-conventional aggregation of districts, machine learning models.
result Predictive models show reasonable performance on historical data, but other variables do not improve prediction quality.