Proposes a new method for fiducial inference using autoencoders.
problem Computational difficulty in extracting generalized fiducial distributions.
method Designs a fiducial autoencoder (FAE) to generate generalized fiducial samples and applies approximate fiducial computation (AFC) to improve accuracy.
result Effective and accurate fiducial inference achieved through FAE and AFC.
EFI automates statistical inference for big data.
problem Statistical inference for model parameters based on observations.
method EFI uses stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo and sparse deep neural networks.
result EFI provides higher fidelity in parameter estimation and automates the inference process.
New tools connect CP to GF inference for better probabilistic prediction.
problem Lack of versatility in conformal prediction for quantifying evidence.
method Imprecise probability theory and generalized fiducial inference.
result Establishes a formal connection between CP and GF inference.
New method for DP inference on categorical data using fiducial matching.
problem Differential privacy complicates statistical inference for categorical data.
method Simulation-based fiducial matching approach.
result Valid and efficient for inferential tasks on categorical data.
Due to their accuracies, methods based on ensembles of regression trees are a popular approach for making predictions. Some common examples include Bayesian additive regression trees, boosting and random forests. This paper focuses on honest random forests, which add honesty to the original form of random forests and a…
New method for PINNs uncertainty quantification without prior distribution.
problem Lack of reliable uncertainty quantification for PINNs.
method Extended fiducial inference with narrow-neck hyper-network.
result Construction of honest confidence sets based on observed data.
A new method uses deep neural networks for estimating individual treatment effects.
problem Estimating individual treatment effects in large models.
method Extended fiducial inference with Double Neural Network (Double-NN) method.
result The Double-NN method outperforms CQR in individual treatment effect estimation.
The paper analyzes the observability of relative pose estimation using dual quaternions.
problem Estimating relative pose in robotics applications.
method Lie algebraic nonlinear observability analysis on a dual quaternion system.
result Dual quaternion representation yields an observability matrix with a simple block triangular structure and full rank.
We introduce a new high dimensional algorithm for efficiency corrected, maximally Monte Carlo event generator independent fiducial measurements at the LHC and beyond. The approach is driven probabilistically using a Deep Neural Network on an event-by-event basis, trained using detector simulation and even only pure pha…
Quantum field theory connects Riemannian geometry to quantum fluctuations.
problem Generating Riemannian structures from quantum fluctuations.
method QFT approach to Riemannian Geometry, focusing on Ricci curvature.
result Ricci curvature is crucial in generating Riemannian structures.
Clarifies challenges in machine learning uncertainty quantification.
problem Inconsistent terminology and diverse technical requirements for trustworthy uncertainties.
method Examines estimation targets, uncertainty constructs, and problematic mappings.
result Advocates for alignment between intent and implementation in UQ.
TopoFisher learns topological summaries by maximizing Fisher information, improving parameter efficiency and inference quality.
problem Simulation-based inference misses key information in low-order statistics, especially for non-Gaussian fields.
method TopoFisher uses a differentiable persistent-homology pipeline that learns topological summaries by maximizing local Gaussian Fisher information.
result TopoFisher recovers much of the available information and outperforms fixed topological vectorizations in weak gravitational lensing.
Study on rank 2 Higgs bundles on 5-punctured sphere, proving P=W conjecture in lowest degree.
problem Proving the P=W conjecture for rank 2 Higgs bundles on a 5-punctured sphere. method Abelianization of Higgs bundles, fiducial solutions, and analysis of Fenchel--Nielsen co-ordinates.
result Proved the lowest degree weighted pieces of the P=W conjecture. In this work, we have proposed several enhancements to improve the performance of any facial emotion recognition (FER) system. We believe that the changes in the positions of the fiducial points and the intensities capture the crucial information regarding the emotion of a face image. We propose the use of the gradient…
New method extracts cosmological information from dark matter halo catalogues using graph neural networks.
problem Quantifying cosmological information from large-scale structure data.
method Implicit likelihood approach with Information Maximising Neural Networks (IMNNs) on graph representations of dark matter halo catalogues.
result Graph neural network summaries can extract information from noisy catalogues and improve parameter constraints.
Study asymptotics of hyperkähler geometry on singular fibers of Hitchin moduli space.
problem Asymptotic hyperkähler geometry of SL2(C)-Hitchin moduli space over singular fibers. method Extension of exponential convergence results to locally fiducial Higgs bundles and subintegrable systems.
result Hyperkähler metric converges exponentially to semi-flat metric on subintegrable systems.
Levy processes, which have stationary independent increments, are ideal for modelling the various types of noise that can arise in communication channels. If a Levy process admits exponential moments, then there exists a parametric family of measure changes called Esscher transformations. If the parameter is replaced w…
Study shows genericity of singularities in spacetimes with weakly trapped submanifolds.
problem Ensuring nonspacelike geodesic incompleteness in spacetimes with weakly trapped submanifolds.
method Use strong Whitney topologies on spaces of Lorentzian metrics and Hilbert manifold structures on initial data sets to prove genericity of null geodesic incompleteness.
result The phenomenon of nonspacelike geodesic incompleteness is generic in a precise technical sense.
Probabilistic inference procedures are usually coded painstakingly from scratch, for each target model and each inference algorithm. We reduce this effort by generating inference procedures from models automatically. We make this code generation modular by decomposing inference algorithms into reusable program-to-progr…
Generative Augmented Inference improves AI-generated data for causal inference.
problem Challenges in using AI-generated annotations for reliable causal inference.
method Generative Augmented Inference (GAI) treats AI outputs as informative features for learning true labels, flexibly modeling the relationship using nonparametric methods.
result GAI significantly reduces estimation error and improves confidence interval quality compared to human-only and PPI-based methods.
Improved Bayesian inference for neuronal ensemble inference reduces computational cost.
problem Efficient inference of neuronal ensembles from activity data.
method Modified MCMC algorithm with simulated annealing for hyperparameter control.
result Our method reduces computational cost while maintaining or improving inference accuracy.
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular model for density estimation and representation learning. Canonically, the variational principle suggests to prefer an expressive inference model so that the variational approximation is accurate. However, it is often overlooked that an overly-expressive inference model ca…
AGMs outperform EGMs in generalizing to unseen inference tasks.
problem Training graphical models for inference tasks not seen during training.
method Adversarial training of an ensemble of discrete graphical models.
result AGMs significantly outperform EGMs in generalization to unseen tasks.
PriorCVAE uses deep generative models to infer hyperparameters in MCMC.
problem Losing hyperparameter information in GP prior inference.
method Conditioning VAE on hyperparameters to encode and estimate them during inference.
result PriorCVAE enables efficient and distinct inference of hyperparameters.
ALFI improves likelihood-free inference for black-box generators.
problem Limitations of likelihood-free inference on black-box generators.
method Adversarial Likelihood-Free Inference (ALFI) to estimate posterior distributions.
result ALFI achieves best parameter estimation accuracy with limited simulation.
The paper improves Lasso inference methods for survey data.
problem Improving inference methods for survey data.
method Extends Lasso inferential methods to survey data.
result Establishes asymptotic validity of inference procedures in survey environments.
New framework improves robust inference in HMMs under model misspecification.
problem Inference in general state-space HMMs under likelihood misspecification.
method Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods.
result Improved performance in object tracking and Gaussian process regression.
Amortized variational inference (AVI) replaces instance-specific local inference with a global inference network. While AVI has enabled efficient training of deep generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAE), recent empirical work suggests that inference networks can produce suboptimal variational parameter…
We introduce the adversarially learned inference (ALI) model, which jointly learns a generation network and an inference network using an adversarial process. The generation network maps samples from stochastic latent variables to the data space while the inference network maps training examples in data space to the sp…
Exact Bayesian inference for discrete models using probability generating functions.
problem Discrete statistical models with infinite support and continuous priors.
method Probabilistic programming language with automatic differentiation and probability generating functions.
result Genfer tool provides exact solutions for a wide range of inference problems.
Posterior SBC validates inference conditionally on observed data.
problem Validating inference for specific observed data.
method Simulation-based calibration checking (SBC) adapted to use posterior parameters.
result Validates inference conditionally on observed data.
Unified framework for simulation-based inference learns a single model for multiple tasks.
problem Simulation-based inference for multiple tasks with limited model retraining.
method Unified flow-matching generative model with query-aware masking distribution.
result Competitive performance on various inference tasks and real-world problems.
The paper extends statistical inference methods for black-box generative models.
problem Understanding and validating black-box generative models without access to their internal data.
method Develops model-level statistical inference tasks using generative model representations.
result Model-level representations are effective for multiple inference tasks.
DALI improves inference for GANs by matching prior and conditional distributions.
problem Effective inference for generative adversarial models (GANs).
method Explicitly matches prior and conditional distributions in data and code spaces, constraining dependency structure.
result Significantly improves reconstruction and generation compared to other GAN inference models.
TARP tests accuracy of generative posterior estimators.
problem Assessing the accuracy of posterior estimators from generative models.
method TARP coverage testing method.
result TARP can detect inaccurate inferences in high-dimensional spaces.
New framework improves counterfactual predictions using causal inference.
problem Challenges in predicting counterfactual outcomes with limited covariates and high-dimensional outcomes.
method Variational Bayesian causal inference framework for counterfactual generative modeling.
result Framework encourages disentangled exogenous noise and correct identification of causal effects.
Inference models are a key component in scaling variational inference to deep latent variable models, most notably as encoder networks in variational auto-encoders (VAEs). By replacing conventional optimization-based inference with a learned model, inference is amortized over data examples and therefore more computatio…
UA-SABI uses surrogates to speed up Bayesian inference for expensive models.
problem Inference for computationally expensive models is slow and uncertain.
method Combines surrogate modeling with Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) to propagate uncertainties.
result Reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for expensive models is achieved.
GATSBI uses GANs for SBI, improving posterior estimation in high dimensions.
problem Statistical inference on stochastic models without likelihoods.
method Adversarial approach to variational objective, amortized inference, implicit priors.
result GATSBI returns well-calibrated posterior estimates in high dimensions.
Graphical models use graphs to compactly capture stochastic dependencies amongst a collection of random variables. Inference over graphical models corresponds to finding marginal probability distributions given joint probability distributions. In general, this is computationally intractable, which has led to a quest fo…
Improves neural relational inference for dynamic multi-agent trajectories.
problem Limited accuracy of NRI in short output sequences for relational inference in multi-agent trajectories.
method Proposes DYnamic multi-AgentRelational Inference (DYARI) model to handle changing interactions over time.
result DYARI model outperforms NRI in dynamic relational inference tasks.
Self-reflective VAE improves inference and generative modeling without complex components.
problem Limitations of typical VAEs in inference and generative modeling.
method Introduces self-reflective inference, a new hierarchical structure that matches variational posterior to exact posterior.
result Self-reflective inference achieves state-of-the-art performance on binarized MNIST without autoregressive layers.
New method improves generalization of VAEs by reducing overfitting.
problem Generalization issues in VAEs overfitting to training data.
method Proposed a new training objective to improve amortized inference.
result Improved performance in image modeling and lossless compression.
EVODiff optimizes DM inference by reducing conditional entropy, improving image generation.
problem Slow and inaccurate inference in diffusion models.
method Entropy-aware variance optimization for efficient inference.
result Significant improvement in image generation quality and efficiency.
A graphical model is a structured representation of the data generating process. The traditional method to reason over random variables is to perform inference in this graphical model. However, in many cases the generating process is only a poor approximation of the much more complex true data generating process, leadi…
MPM-ParVI uses particle sampling for variational inference.
problem Variational inference for complex probabilistic models.
method Material Point Method (MPM) for particle-based simulation.
result Deterministic sampling and inference for intractable densities.
Bayesian inference provides an attractive online-learning framework to analyze sequential data, and offers generalization guarantees which hold even with model mismatch and adversaries. Unfortunately, exact Bayesian inference is rarely feasible in practice and approximation methods are usually employed, but do such met…
Deep generative models are reported to be useful in broad applications including image generation. Repeated inference between data space and latent space in these models can denoise cluttered images and improve the quality of inferred results. However, previous studies only qualitatively evaluated image outputs in data…