arXiv research

Investment horizon approach has been used to analyze indexes of Polish stock market.Optimal time horizon for each return value is evaluated by fitting appropriate function form of the distribution. Strong asymmetry of gain-loss curves is observed for WIG index, whereas gain and loss curves look similar for WIG20 and fo…

Previous research has shown that for stock indices, the most likely time until a return of a particular size has been observed is longer for gains than for losses. We establish that this so-called gain/loss asymmetry is present also for individual stocks and show that the phenomenon is closely linked to the well-known …

Bayesian analysis reveals asymmetry in financial data.

We demonstrate that the gain/loss asymmetry observed for stock indices vanishes if the temporal dependence structure is destroyed by scrambling the time series. We also show that an artificial index constructed by a simple average of a number of individual stocks display gain/loss asymmetry - this allows us to explicit…

Study shows gain-loss asymmetry in stock indices using a q-spin Potts model.

Inverse statistics in economics is considered. We argue that the natural candidate for such statistics is the investment horizons distribution. This distribution of waiting times needed to achieve a predefined level of return is obtained from (often detrended) historic asset prices. Such a distribution typically goes t…

In recent publications, the authors have considered inverse statistics of the Dow Jones Industrial Averaged (DJIA) [1-3]. Specifically, we argued that the natural candidate for such statistics is the investment horizons distribution. This is the distribution of waiting times needed to achieve a predefined level of retu…

By decomposing asset returns into potential maximum gain (PMG) and potential maximum loss (PML) with price extremes, this study empirically investigated the relationships between PMG and PML. We found significant asymmetry between PMG and PML. PML significantly contributed to forecasting PMG but not vice versa. We furt…

Modified Jones-Faddy skew t-distribution captures asymmetry in stock returns.

Study of historic stock returns distributions, highlighting asymmetry and outliers.

The gain-loss asymmetry, observed in the inverse statistics of stock indices is present for logarithmic return levels that are over $2\%$, and it is the result of the non-Pearson type auto-correlations in the index. These non-Pearson type correlations can be viewed also as functionally dependent daily volatilities, ext…

The inverse statistics is the distribution of waiting times needed to achieve a predefined level of return obtained from (detrended) historic asset prices \cite{optihori,gainloss}. Such a distribution typically goes through a maximum at a time coined the {\em optimal investment horizon}, $τ^*_ρ$, which defines the most…

Researchers have studied the first passage time of financial time series and observed that the smallest time interval needed for a stock index to move a given distance is typically shorter for negative than for positive price movements. The same is not observed for the index constituents, the individual stocks. We use …

We extend return extrapolation to incorporate asymmetry and saturation, finding that asymmetric nonlinear extrapolation leads to lower welfare loss.

We review a resent {\em time-dependent} performance measure for economical time series -- the (optimal) investment horizon approach. For stock indices, the approach shows a pronounced gain-loss asymmetry that is {\em not} observed for the individual stocks that comprise the index. This difference may hint towards an sy…

Model captures asymmetric extreme events in financial returns.

Extends return extrapolation to nonlinear, asymmetric functions under stochastic volatility.

Study shows short exposure and systematic risk exposure affect disposition effect asymmetries.

QBVAR improves oil price forecasting across quantiles, especially for downside risk.

We show that time-dependent fluctuations $\{Δx\}$ in foreign exchange rates are accurately described by a random walk in a complex plane that is demarcated into the gain (+) and loss (-) sectors. $\{Δx\}$ is the outcome of $N$ random steps from the origin and $|Δx|$ is the square of the Euclidean distance of the final …

We solve exactly a simple model of trend following strategy, and obtain the analytical shape of the profit per trade distribution. This distribution is non trivial and has an option like, asymmetric structure. The degree of asymmetry depends continuously on the parameters of the strategy and on the volatility of the tr…

The gain-loss ratio is known to enjoy very good properties from a normative point of view. As a confirmation, we show that the best market gain-loss ratio in the presence of a random endowment is an acceptability index and we provide its dual representation for general probability spaces. However, the gain-loss ratio w…

It is known that asset exchange models with symmetric interaction between agents show either a Gibbs/log-normal distribution of assets among the agents or condensation of the entire wealth in the hands of a single agent, depending upon the rules of exchange. Here we explore the effects of introducing asymmetry in the i…

Chinchilla Approach 2 biases neural scaling law estimates, leading to unnecessary compute costs.

Two new algorithms improve performance in adversarial bandits with unbounded losses.

Study adds investment gains and losses to recursive utility model, proving existence and uniqueness of utility process.

We consider the problem of concurrent portfolio losses in two non-overlapping credit portfolios. In order to explore the full statistical dependence structure of such portfolio losses, we estimate their empirical pairwise copulas. Instead of a Gaussian dependence, we typically find a strong asymmetry in the copulas. Co…

A spring-block chain placed on a running conveyor belt is considered for modeling stylized facts observed in the dynamics of stock indexes. Individual stocks are modeled by the blocks, while the stock-stock correlations are introduced via simple elastic forces acting in the springs. The dragging effect of the moving be…

We present an agent based model of a single asset financial market that is capable of replicating several non-trivial statistical properties observed in real financial markets, generically referred to as stylized facts. While previous models reported in the literature are also capable of replicating some of these stati…

Researchers study spectral asymmetry using pseudodifferential projections on the massless Dirac operator.

Fan tokens surged before World Cup matches, but declined during them, revealing cognitive biases.

Develops a new approach to spectral asymmetry using microlocal analysis.

New measures detect asymmetries, non-linearity in stock returns.

Research builds an index measuring analysts' perception of informational asymmetry.

We develop a tractable model of realization utility that studies the role of reference-dependent S-shaped preferences in a dynamic investment setting with reinvestment. Our model generates both voluntarily realized gains and losses. It makes specific predictions about the volume of gains and losses, the holding periods…

This paper discusses a novel explanation for asymmetric volatility based on the anchoring behavioral pattern. Anchoring as a heuristic bias causes investors focusing on recent price changes and price levels, which two lead to a belief in continuing trend and mean-reversion respectively. The empirical results support ou…

An econometric or statistical model may undergo a marginal gain if we admit a new variable to the model, and a marginal loss if we remove an existing variable from the model. Assuming equality of opportunity among all candidate variables, we derive a valuation framework by the expected marginal gain and marginal loss i…

This paper optimizes cryptocurrency portfolios by clustering price correlations and improving risk-return profiles.

Study asset pricing with reference-dependent preferences, finding matching equity premia.

Least squares kernel based methods have been widely used in regression problems due to the simple implementation and good generalization performance. Among them, least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR) and extreme learning machine (ELM) are popular techniques. However, the noise sensitivity is a major bottlene…

Loss-calibrated EP improves Bayesian decision-making by focusing on utility-sensitive posterior approximations.

The paper tackles multi-player information asymmetry bandits in metric spaces.

Study finds time-varying volatility and multifractality in Bitcoin, with asymmetry weakening as market efficiency increases.

We demonstrate that, in the classical non-stochastic regret minimization problem with $d$ decisions, gains and losses to be respectively maximized or minimized are fundamentally different. Indeed, by considering the additional sparsity assumption (at each stage, at most $s$ decisions incur a nonzero outcome), we derive…

Study analyzes Nifty 50 returns over 34 years, showing P/E ratio predicts long-term gains.

Research shows that information asymmetry affects how quickly companies adjust their capital structure and expected returns.

The Finslerian extension of the Euclidean metric is proposed and studied under rigorous conditions that the associated indicatrix is regular and convex. The relativistic pseudo-Euclidean metric is extended, too. The extensions show distinct violation of the $T-$parity, so that the future-past asymmetry of the physical …

We consider a financial contract that delivers a single cash flow given by the terminal value of a cumulative gains process. The problem of modelling and pricing such an asset and associated derivatives is important, for example, in the determination of optimal insurance claims reserve policies, and in the pricing of r…