A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
CODA simulates future data to generalize models across different datasets.
PDSim simulates and estimates commodity futures prices using polynomial diffusion models.
This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation to value quality options in agricultural futures contracts.
Study reveals stylized facts in German bond futures markets.
Improved stock selection through predictive fundamentals and uncertainty estimates.
Study predicts wind energy potential in Gulf of Oman using climate models.
Temporal prediction is critical for making intelligent and robust decisions in complex dynamic environments. Motion prediction needs to model the inherently uncertain future which often contains multiple potential outcomes, due to multi-agent interactions and the latent goals of others. Towards these goals, we introduc…
It has been suggested that marked point processes might be good candidates for the modelling of financial high-frequency data. A special class of point processes, Hawkes processes, has been the subject of various investigations in the financial community. In this paper, we propose to enhance a basic zero-intelligence o…
Model simulates Perpetual Futures market with agent behavior.
We study a series of static and dynamic portfolios of VIX futures and their effectiveness to track the VIX index. We derive each portfolio using optimization methods, and evaluate its tracking performance from both empirical and theoretical perspectives. Among our results, we show that static portfolios of different VI…
We analyze the time series of overnight returns for the bund and btp futures exchanged at LIFFE (London). The overnight returns of both assets are mapped onto a one-dimensional symbolic-dynamics random walk: The `bond walk'. During the considered period (October 1991 - January 1994) the bund-future market opened earlie…
Gaussian Processes enhance financial forecasting by predicting mean-reverting time series with probability distributions.
Study examines how arbitrage between ETF and futures affects market liquidity during crashes.
Since decades, the data science community tries to propose prediction models of financial time series. Yet, driven by the rapid development of information technology and machine intelligence, the velocity of today's information leads to high market efficiency. Sound financial theories demonstrate that in an efficient m…
Generative diffusion models improve financial LOB simulation and forecasting.
A simple approach improves performance on both past and future tasks in lifelong learning.
New simulation model predicts financial market dynamics with high accuracy.
PAMS is a Python-based platform for simulating artificial markets.
This paper speeds up PDV model calibration by learning SPX and VIX prices.
Flexible model captures commodity skews with maturity effects.
In this article we present a continuous time model for natural gas and crude oil future prices. Its main feature is the possibility to link both energies in the long term and in the short term. For each energy, the future returns are represented as the sum of volatility functions driven by motions. Under the risk neutr…
Machine learning (especially reinforcement learning) methods for trading are increasingly reliant on simulation for agent training and testing. Furthermore, simulation is important for validation of hand-coded trading strategies and for testing hypotheses about market structure. A challenge, however, concerns the robus…
Prognosticator improves performance in non-stationary MDPs.
We present GLASSES: Global optimisation with Look-Ahead through Stochastic Simulation and Expected-loss Search. The majority of global optimisation approaches in use are myopic, in only considering the impact of the next function value; the non-myopic approaches that do exist are able to consider only a handful of futu…
In commodity and energy markets swing options allow the buyer to hedge against futures price fluctuations and to select its preferred delivery strategy within daily or periodic constraints, possibly fixed by observing quoted futures contracts. In this paper we focus on the natural gas market and we present a dynamical …
Production forecasting is a key step to design the future development of a reservoir. A classical way to generate such forecasts consists in simulating future production for numerical models representative of the reservoir. However, identifying such models can be very challenging as they need to be constrained to all a…
Popular culture has contemplated societies of thinking machines for generations, envisioning futures from utopian to dystopian. These futures are, arguably, here now-we find ourselves at the doorstep of technology that can at least simulate the appearance of thinking, acting, and feeling. The real question is: now what…
On a periodic basis, publicly traded companies are required to report fundamentals: financial data such as revenue, operating income, debt, among others. These data points provide some insight into the financial health of a company. Academic research has identified some factors, i.e. computed features of the reported d…
Paper introduces a new method for calibrating ESGs to both historical and forward-looking data.
FinRL-Meta creates diverse market environments for DRL in finance.
Proposes a model for time-varying regression coefficients.
Diffusion models enhance SBI with flexible parameter and observation learning.
The paper uses a simulator and optimisation to defend against cyber threats.
PriorGuide adapts diffusion models to new priors at test time.
The paper calibrates SPX and VIX options using optimal transport.
Paper uses GANs to simulate consumer transactions with SKU constraints.
We introduce a new unsupervised anomaly detection ensemble called SPI which can harness privileged information - data available only for training examples but not for (future) test examples. Our ideas build on the Learning Using Privileged Information (LUPI) paradigm pioneered by Vapnik et al. [19,17], which we extend …
Given the lack of evidence for new particle discoveries at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), it is critical to broaden the search program. A variety of model-independent searches have been proposed, adding sensitivity to unexpected signals. There are generally two types of such searches: those that rely heavily on simul…
Inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments are designed using computer simulations that are approximations of reality, and therefore must be calibrated to accurately predict experimental observations. In this work, we propose a novel nonlinear technique for calibrating from simulations to experiments, or from low fi…
This study presents an agent-based computational cross-market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index futures to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions …
Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models still show many differences compared with observations. Machine learning has bee…
In risk management it is desirable to grasp the essential statistical features of a time series representing a risk factor. This tutorial aims to introduce a number of different stochastic processes that can help in grasping the essential features of risk factors describing different asset classes or behaviors. This pa…
Graph neural controlled differential equations learn graph dynamics from vertex observations.
ForecastQA creates a new QA task for event forecasting from text data.
Federated learning studies separate client data and distribution gaps.
Many recommendation algorithms rely on user data to generate recommendations. However, these recommendations also affect the data obtained from future users. This work aims to understand the effects of this dynamic interaction. We propose a simple model where users with heterogeneous preferences arrive over time. Based…
The long-term dependence of Bitcoin (BTC), manifesting itself through a Hurst exponent , is exploited in order to predict future BTC/USD price. A Monte Carlo simulation with geometric fractional Brownian motion realisations is performed as extensions of historical data. The accuracy of statistical inferen…
Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) has been widely applied in current communication systems. The artificial intelligence (AI)-aided OFDM receivers are currently brought to the forefront to replace and improve the traditional OFDM receivers. In this study, we first compare two AI-aided OFDM receivers, nam…