Selective classification can worsen accuracy disparities between groups.
problem Selective classification can magnify existing accuracy disparities between various groups.
method Study of margin distribution and distributionally-robust models.
result Selective classification can uniformly improve each group on distributionally-robust models.
The paper derives uniform stability-based coverage bounds for conformal prediction methods.
problem Establishing theoretical guarantees for conformal prediction methods.
method Uniform stability perspective applied to full-conformal, jackknife+, and CV+ prediction regions.
result Coverage bounds for finite-dimensional models derived using a concentration argument.
Improves random forest quantile estimation and prediction intervals.
problem Excessive bias in quantile estimates from random forests.
method Minimizes quantile coverage loss (QCL) by adjusting RF parameters.
result QCL-tuned RFs produce more accurate and narrower prediction intervals.
New privacy-preserving method for conformal prediction without splitting data.
problem Privacy and uncertainty quantification in data-driven decision making.
method Proposes a full-data privacy-preserving conformal prediction framework using differential privacy.
result Demonstrates improved prediction sets compared to split-based private baselines.
CTI produces efficient prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.
problem Efficient and reliable uncertainty quantification in regression.
method CTI estimates conditional density for interval length, then thresholds intervals based on this density.
result CTI achieves smaller prediction sets with guaranteed coverage compared to existing methods.
A third of adults in America use the Internet to diagnose medical concerns, and online symptom checkers are increasingly part of this process. These tools are powered by diagnosis models similar to clinical decision support systems, with the primary difference being the coverage of symptoms and diagnoses. To be useful …
The paper tackles entry prediction in row/column-exchangeable matrices with arbitrary missing data.
problem Prediction in matrices with arbitrary missing data.
method Proposes two practical algorithms: one for fast emulation and another for acceleration using algorithmic stability.
result Demonstrates superior performance in synthetic and real-world data sets.
This work introduces COLA, a strategy to aggregate conformal prediction sets efficiently.
problem Efficiently combining multiple conformity scores to reduce prediction set size.
method Introduces COnfidence-Level Allocation (COLA) to optimally allocate confidence levels across sets.
result COLA achieves smaller prediction sets than state-of-the-art methods while maintaining valid coverage.
BCCP uses bandit feedback to provide reliable predictions with limited labeled data.
problem Limited labeled data and bandit feedback challenge online set-valued classification.
method BCCP uses stochastic gradient descent to train model and make set-valued inferences with unbiased estimation of true label.
result BCCP offers coverage guarantees on a class-specific granularity.
TARP tests accuracy of generative posterior estimators.
problem Assessing the accuracy of posterior estimators from generative models.
method TARP coverage testing method.
result TARP can detect inaccurate inferences in high-dimensional spaces.
A new method for selective classification trades off accuracy for coverage.
problem Selective classification allows a classifier to abstain from predicting some instances.
method Optimizes a collection of class-wise decoupled one-sided empirical risks.
result The method achieves near-optimal coverage in high target accuracy regimes.
CPPO learns policies from partial offline data in MDPs with structural assumptions.
problem Offline Reinforcement Learning with partial coverage assumption.
method Constrained Pessimistic Policy Optimization (CPPO) using a function class and model class constraint.
result CPPO achieves PAC guarantee with partial coverage, learning competitive policies.
Adaptive coverage policies improve conformal prediction accuracy.
problem Fixed coverage levels in traditional conformal prediction lead to uninformative predictions.
method Optimizes adaptive coverage policy using a neural network trained on leave-one-out calibration.
result Adaptive coverage policies produce more informative and flexible prediction sets.
New method uses label-weighted conformal prediction for macro-coverage guarantees in classification.
problem Finding a balance between class-conditional and marginal coverage in long-tailed datasets.
method Label-weighted conformal prediction for macro-coverage guarantees.
result Validated prediction sets with macro-coverage guarantees on large-scale image datasets.
New method improves conditional coverage of conformal prediction.
problem Improving conditional coverage in conformal prediction.
method Trainable transformation of conformity scores to improve conditional coverage.
result Highly adaptive to local data structure, outperforming existing methods.
New online conformal prediction methods minimize strongly adaptive regret and achieve near-optimal coverage.
problem Uncertainty quantification in online settings with changing data distributions.
method Developed new online conformal prediction methods that minimize strongly adaptive regret.
result Achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret and approximately valid coverage.
Two methods improve Gaussian process predictive distributions' calibration.
problem Improving the reliability of Gaussian process predictive intervals.
method Introduces two methods: cps-gp and bcr-gp, both adapting conformal predictive systems to GP interpolation.
result Both methods provide finite-sample marginal calibration and smooth predictive distributions.
The paper introduces uncertainty quantification for NER models.
problem Current NER models lack uncertainty measures, leading to downstream errors.
method Full-Sequence and Subsequence Conformal Prediction framework.
result The method provides formal guarantees about the reliability of model predictions.
Enhances conformal prediction for better uncertainty estimates in armed conflict fatalities.
problem Lack of individual-level uncertainty estimates in existing forecasting models.
method Introduces bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) to improve coverage rates across subsets of the outcome variable.
result Demonstrates improved local coverage and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across various ranges of fatalities.
Bayesian method estimates coverage from sketching imperfect data.
problem Estimating coverage probabilities from compressed data.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach using Dirichlet process prior.
result Estimators accurately recover distinct counts and frequencies.
Oracle-efficient algorithm for offline RL with partial data coverage.
problem Offline reinforcement learning with partial data coverage and constraints.
method PDOCRL, a primal-dual algorithm with decomposed linear-programming formulation.
result Near-optimal, near-feasible policy with \(\widetilde{\mathcal O}(ε^{-2})\) sample guarantee.
C-SymmPI provides near-conditional coverage for structured data with group symmetries.
problem Establishing near-conditional coverage guarantees for structured data with group symmetries.
method Developed a framework C-SymmPI that achieves near-conditional coverage under general data structures with group symmetries.
result Near-conditional coverage guarantees for structured data with group symmetries.
Proposes a new method for improved conformal prediction.
problem Inability to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees.
method Partition Learning Conformal Prediction (PLCP) framework to improve conditional validity through learning uncertainty-guided features.
result PLCP provides superior performance in terms of coverage and length compared to state-of-the-art methods.
The paper tackles temporal coverage bias in financial panel data, proposing a structuring framework to correct for incomplete histories.
problem Incomplete histories of financial instruments lead to biased panel data.
method Formalizes the problem and proposes a coverage-aware structuring framework using structured metadata and an availability matrix.
result The framework reveals substantial distortions in return dynamics and volatility when naive temporal alignment is used.
A method for constructing tight prediction intervals for multiple numerical outputs.
problem Constructing tight prediction intervals for multiple related numerical outputs.
method A novel coordinate-wise standardization procedure that makes residuals comparable across output dimensions, estimating suitable scaling parameters using calibration data.
result The method produces tighter prediction intervals than existing baselines while maintaining valid simultaneous coverage.
Develop a framework to evaluate the reliability of probabilistic emulation of physical systems.
problem Evaluating the reliability of probabilistic forecasts in physical systems.
method Developing a framework to assess the reliability of probabilistic emulation across diverse 2D spatiotemporal systems.
result CRPS-trained ensembles achieve more reliable uncertainties on single-step prediction and autoregressive rollouts.
Efficient PI for neural networks without distributional assumptions.
problem No distributional assumptions for efficient predictive inference.
method Differential privacy and linear approximation for leave-one-out models.
result Rigorous coverage guarantees with reduced computation.
Making recommendations in the presence of sparsity is known to present one of the most challenging problems faced by collaborative filtering methods. In this work we tackle this problem by exploiting the innately hierarchical structure of the item space following an approach inspired by the theory of Decomposability. W…
Method quantifies uncertainty in full ranking with new CP approach.
problem Uncertainty quantification in full ranking with unknown ground truth.
method Transductive Conformal Prediction (CP) method to construct distribution-free bounds.
result Valid prediction sets and false coverage proportion control for full ranking.
CoCP optimizes prediction intervals by jointly learning center and radius, improving efficiency and coverage.
problem Inefficient conformal prediction intervals under heteroscedasticity and skewness.
method Co-optimization framework that learns center and radius through alternating optimization steps.
result CoCP yields consistently shorter intervals and state-of-the-art conditional coverage diagnostics.
CIR method constructs efficient prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.
problem Efficiently constructing near-minimal prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.
method Conditional Interquantile Regression (CIR) and CIR+ (enhanced version).
result Optimal balance between predictive accuracy and computational efficiency.
CPATTA uses conformal prediction for efficient test-time adaptation.
problem Low data selection efficiency in existing ATTA methods.
method Conformal Prediction, online weight-update algorithm, domain-shift detector, staged update scheme.
result CPATTA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 5% in accuracy.
WR-CP reduces prediction set size and coverage gap under distribution shift.
problem Guaranteed coverage under distribution shift not achievable with i.i.d. assumption.
method Wasserstein distance, probability measure pushforwards, importance weighting, regularized representation learning.
result Reduces coverage gap to 3.2% across different confidence levels.
BLISS optimizes GNN training by adaptively sampling nodes.
problem High computational costs in training GNNs on large graphs.
method Uses Bandit Layer Importance Sampling to dynamically select nodes.
result Improves GNN performance with reduced computational cost.
COLEP improves robustness of conformal prediction via probabilistic circuits.
problem Adversarial perturbations can undermine the coverage guarantees of conformal prediction.
method COLEP uses probabilistic circuits to learn and reason about different semantic concepts, providing certifiable coverage guarantees.
result COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy than a single model, especially with non-trivial knowledge models.
Locally Valid and Discriminative prediction intervals for deep learning models.
problem Efficient and theoretically sound uncertainty quantification for deep learning models.
method Locally Valid and Discriminative prediction intervals (LVD) using kernel regression.
result Locally Valid and Discriminative prediction intervals (LVD) offer better performance and scalability compared to existing methods.
Develops methods for dynamic pricing in incomplete data settings.
problem Incomplete historical data makes optimal pricing difficult.
method Nonparametric partial identification framework for offline dynamic pricing.
result Pessimistic and opportunistic policies with regret bounds.
Algorithm speeds up search for stationary targets with guaranteed accuracy.
problem Minimize search time while ensuring high detection accuracy of stationary targets.
method Multi-fidelity Gaussian process model and EMTS algorithm.
result Guaranteed performance in target detection accuracy and search time.
This study calculates the maximum error of a famous estimation method.
problem Estimating rare items not seen in a sample.
method Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
result Characterizes the maximal mean-squared error of the Good-Turing estimator.
Method predicts NAFLD risk with high accuracy and distribution-free coverage guarantees.
problem Insufficient population-level screening tools for NAFLD.
method Gradient-boosted decision trees with conformal prediction.
result Method achieves AUROC of 0.912 internally and 0.891 externally, superior to other models.
Article addresses practical challenges in conformal prediction.
problem Challenges in determining, computing, and controlling conformal prediction regions.
method Proposes a quadratic-polynomial non-conformity measure.
result Allows circumventing three challenges in full conformal prediction framework.
PRISM integrates diverse rewards in MORL, improving sample efficiency and Pareto coverage.
problem Heterogeneous MORL where dense objectives dominate, leading to poor sample efficiency.
method PRISM uses reflectional symmetry and ReSymNet to reconcile temporal-frequency mismatches and accelerate exploration.
result PRISM consistently outperforms sparse-reward baselines and oracles, achieving significant Pareto gains.
Small satellite constellations provide daily global coverage of the earth's landmass, but image enrichment relies on automating key tasks like change detection or feature searches. For example, to extract text annotations from raw pixels requires two dependent machine learning models, one to analyze the overhead image …
A framework to quantify deployment risk in ML systems, especially for rare states.
problem Under-supported rare states in ML models lead to unreliable performance in unseen data.
method Blind-Spot Mass (B_n(tau)) using Good-Turing unseen-species estimation.
result Identifies and quantifies the risk of under-supported states in ML models.
A hybrid algorithm fuses significance-based splitting with honest sample-splitting for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects while maintaining valid inference.
method Significance-first splitting using a squared t-statistic for treatment imes side interaction. result Achieves approximately 90% CI coverage at the 90% nominal level across various synthetic designs and datasets.
Bayesian X-Learner calibrates uncertainty and robustness for CATE estimation under heavy-tailed data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with calibrated uncertainty and robustness to heavy-tailed outcomes.
method Bayesian X-Learner using cross-fitted doubly robust pseudo-outcomes and MCMC for a full posterior over CATE.
result Bayesian X-Learner achieves robust and calibrated CATE estimation on real and contaminated data.
Paper accelerates conformal prediction by using approximate leave-one-out estimators.
problem Limited computational cost for conformal prediction.
method Incorporates approximate leave-one-out estimators to accelerate conformal prediction.
result ALO-based methods achieve comparable coverage and efficiency to exact methods but with significantly reduced runtime.
New method provides formal uncertainty guarantees for image classifiers.
problem Uncertainty quantification for image classifiers without formal guarantees.
method Adapts conformal prediction to give stable, formal coverage guarantees.
result Method outperforms existing approaches in coverage and set size.