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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,236 papers · 148 categories

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66132197263 · May 202619922001200920182026
48 results for frequentist consistency

Theoretical framework for M-posteriors connects Bayesian and frequentist statistics.

problem Connecting Bayesian and frequentist approaches in statistical inference.
method Developed a theoretical framework for M-posteriors, showing asymptotic normality and frequentist consistency.
result M-posteriors are robust and contract around M-estimators under mild conditions.

The paper analyzes distributed Bayesian inference and its Frequentist guarantees.

problem Analyzing large decentralized datasets with distributed Bayesian inference.
method Establishes Frequentist properties for distributed (non-)Bayesian inference.
result Distributed Bayesian inference retains parametric efficiency and enhances robustness.

Proposes a new method to control FDR using frequentist-assisted horseshoe for high-dimensional testing.

problem Designing tests with frequentist false discovery rate control using horseshoe prior.
method Frequentist-assisted horseshoe procedure for high-dimensional normal means testing.
result Consistently achieves robust finite-sample FDR control in various sparse cases.

OOD-trained Bayesian neural networks perform similarly to frequentist methods in uncertainty quantification.

problem Bayesian neural networks struggle in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection tasks.
method Incorporated out-of-distribution data into Bayesian inference through four different methods.
result OOD-trained Bayesian neural networks are competitive with frequentist baselines.

A new sequential method estimates Poisson means in streaming data, achieving optimality and efficiency.

problem Estimating Poisson means in a streaming, or online, framework.
method A quasi-Bayesian approach based on Newton's algorithm for a sequential estimate.
result Established frequentist guarantees including consistency and asymptotic optimality.

We revisit the classical decision-theoretic problem of weighted expert voting from a statistical learning perspective. In particular, we examine the consistency (both asymptotic and finitary) of the optimal Nitzan-Paroush weighted majority and related rules. In the case of known expert competence levels, we give sharp …

2013-12-02abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper bridges statistical and machine learning approaches to variational inference.

problem Statisticians struggle to understand variational inference from a Frequentist perspective.
method Explains VI, VAEs, and DDMs from a Frequentist viewpoint, starting with EM.
result VI emerges as a scalable solution for intractable E-steps in VAEs and DDMs.

The paper addresses frequentist regret of Linear Thompson Sampling in stochastic linear bandits.

problem The frequentist regret of Linear Thompson Sampling (LinTS) is worse than its Bayesian counterpart.
method The paper proves the fundamental nature of the frequentist regret bound for LinTS and proposes a data-driven version of LinTS to achieve minimax optimal frequentist regret.
result The frequentist regret bound for LinTS is O~(ddT)\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d\sqrt{dT}), which is the best possible under certain conditions.

Paper analyzes frequentist coverage and convergence rates in Gaussian process regression.

problem Understanding frequentist coverage and convergence rates in Gaussian process regression.
method Develops a Bernstein von-Mises type result and compares posterior distributions to population level GPs.
result Frequentist coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals and bands converge to a non-degenerate value.

A new algorithm reduces frequentist regret in multi-agent bandit problems with sparse hypergraphs.

problem Deriving a frequentist regret bound for Thompson sampling in multi-agent settings with sparse hypergraphs.
method Proposed εε-exploring Multi-Agent Thompson Sampling (εε-MATS) algorithm that combines exploration and exploitation strategies.
result Achieves a worst-case frequentist regret bound sublinear in time horizon and local arm size, optimal up to constants and logarithms for sparse hypergraphs.

Study compares ABM calibration methods, finds Bayesian estimation superior.

problem Criticism of ABM rigour, particularly in calibration practices.
method Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist ABM calibration methods through computational experiments.
result Bayesian estimation outperforms frequentist methods in producing reasonable parameter estimates.

The study compares Bayesian and frequentist approaches in deep learning.

problem Comparing Bayesian and frequentist inference in deep learning.
method Conducts a comparative analysis of point and posterior estimators across various settings.
result Amortized point estimators generally outperform posterior inference, though posterior inference remains competitive in some low-dimensional problems.

Automatically differentiable estimation for BLP model reduces bias in demand estimation.

problem Estimating the BLP model with reduced bias and improved performance.
method Phrasing BLP as an automatically differentiable moment function, using CUE for estimation, and incorporating MCMC credible intervals.
result CUE estimation shows lower bias but higher MAE compared to 2S-GMM, with MCMC providing closest empirical coverage.

SBI with ML helps solve complex problems in science and engineering.

problem Solving inverse problems in science and engineering.
method Bayesian and frequentist statistical frameworks with machine learning.
result Machine learning methods can be applied to Bayesian and frequentist inference.

DBPA assesses LLM perturbations using frequentist hypothesis testing.

problem Quantifying input perturbation impacts on LLM outputs.
method DBPA reformulates perturbation analysis as frequentist hypothesis testing, using Monte Carlo sampling for empirical null and alternative distributions.
result DBPA provides interpretable p-values and scalar effect sizes for LLM perturbations.

Improved Thompson Sampling reduces regret in contextual bandits and reinforcement learning.

problem Thompson Sampling's exploration is insufficient in some contexts.
method Developed Feel-Good Thompson Sampling to address exploration issues.
result Feel-Good Thompson Sampling reduces regret compared to standard Thompson Sampling.

Frequentist method estimates uncertainty in RNNs without altering architecture.

problem Uncertainty quantification in RNNs for decision-making.
method Jackknife resampling and influence functions to estimate variability.
result The method provides theoretical coverage guarantees on uncertainty intervals.

Study evaluates posterior covariance matrix W for frequentist evaluation of Bayesian estimators.

problem Evaluating variability of posterior estimates in Bayesian models.
method Use of Bayesian Infinitesimal Jackknife approximation and W-kernel.
result Principal space of W is central to frequentist evaluation of Bayesian models.

Proposes a method to learn sparse deep neural networks with theoretical guarantees.

problem Over-parameterized deep neural networks cause training, prediction, and interpretation difficulties.
method Frequentist-like method for sparse DNNs under Bayesian framework.
result Consistent sparse DNNs with at most O(n/log(n))O(n/\log(n)) connections.

We have recently proposed a new information-based approach to model selection, the Frequentist Information Criterion (FIC), that reconciles information-based and frequentist inference. The purpose of this current paper is to provide a simple example of the application of this criterion and a demonstration of the natura…

2015-06-19abs ↗pdf ↗

A new framework uses matrix flows to unify frequentist and Bayesian approaches for sparse GGMs.

problem Challenges in studying conditional independence among many variables with few observations.
method General framework for variational inference with matrix-variate Normalizing Flow in Gaussian Graphical Models.
result Unified benefits of frequentist and Bayesian frameworks for sparse GGMs.

Improved RL algorithm reduces regret in large state spaces.

problem Exploration in large or continuous state spaces.
method Optimistically-initialized randomized least-squares value iteration (RLSVI) with function approximation.
result Frequentist regret bound of O~(d2H2T) \widetilde O(d^2 H^2 \sqrt{T}) for low-rank transition dynamics.

Efficient batch optimization with deterministic regret bounds for frequentist kernel methods.

problem Efficient batch optimization for frequentist kernel methods.
method Proposes a novel batch optimization algorithm that jointly maximizes the acquisition function and selects points from a whole batch.
result Theoretical regret bounds for noise-free and perturbation settings are derived, and adversarial regret bounds decrease with a smaller covering radius.

Bayesian neural networks improve RUL estimation accuracy compared to frequentist methods.

problem Uncertainty in training data leads to poor RUL predictions in DL models.
method Apply Bayesian and frequentist neural networks to RUL estimation on the C-MAPSS dataset.
result Bayesian neural networks provide more reliable RUL predictions by quantifying parameter uncertainty.

Deep ensembles effectively capture epistemic uncertainty through training stochasticity, providing a frequentist perspective.

problem Understanding and quantifying epistemic uncertainty in machine learning models.
method Bootstrap-based estimator and decomposition of deep ensembles into data variability and training stochasticity.
result Deep ensembles primarily capture training stochasticity, explaining their effectiveness in quantifying epistemic uncertainty.

We analyze consistency of αα-Rényi approximate posteriors for Bayesian models.

problem Consistency of variational Bayesian methods for intractable posteriors.
method We study αα-Rényi approximate posteriors, focusing on α>1α > 1 and characterizing good sequences.
result Sufficient conditions for consistency are identified, including the existence of a good sequence of distributions.

Paper introduces a new method for calibrating ESGs to both historical and forward-looking data.

problem Lack of a generally accepted methodology for calibrating ESGs to forward-looking information.
method Conditional Scenario Simulator framework for consistent calibration of economic and financial variables.
result Framework can embed various financial and macroeconomic models and demonstrate practical examples in frequentist and Bayesian settings.

The paper presents an R package for learning Bayesian networks from epidemiological data.

problem Learning Bayesian networks from messy, highly correlated datasets in epidemiology.
method The paper introduces an R package abn that implements multiple frequentist scoring rules for learning Bayesian networks from observational data, addressing data separation and adjustment issues.
result The package abn is robust and efficient for learning Bayesian networks from epidemiological data.

Study improves machine learning for estimating survival treatment effects.

problem Estimating heterogeneous survival treatment effects in observational data.
method Flexible machine learning methods in the counterfactual framework, including AFT-BART-NP.
result AFT-BART-NP consistently yields best performance in terms of bias, precision, and frequentist coverage.

Bayesian deep learning improves maintenance planning uncertainty quantification.

problem Estimating the remaining useful life of physical systems with uncertainty quantification.
method Stein variational gradient descent for training Bayesian neural networks.
result Bayesian deep learning models trained via Stein variational gradient descent outperform other methods in convergence speed and predictive performance.

Bayesian online learning algorithm for one-pass data, achieving frequentist validity and uncertainty quantification.

problem Theoretical limitations in Bayesian online learning, especially in the one-pass setting.
method Proposed a new Bayesian online learning algorithm with a warm-start phase for the one-pass regime, establishing convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification.
result The sequentially updated posterior attains optimal convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification without diverging mini-batch sample sizes.

New meta-learning framework for minimizing simple regret in bandits.

problem Minimizing simple regret in a sequence of bandit tasks with unknown distributions.
method Developed Bayesian and frequentist meta-learning algorithms for bandits, analyzing their meta simple regret.
result Bayesian algorithm achieves ildeO(m/n) ilde{O}(m / \sqrt{n}) meta simple regret, frequentist algorithm ildeO(mn+m/n) ilde{O}(\sqrt{m} n + m/ \sqrt{n}).

Bayes optimal algorithm under certain conditions doesn't achieve exponential simple regret.

problem Best arm identification with normal rewards over time.
method Fixed-budget best arm identification problem with rewards from normal distributions. Evaluates performance via simple regret.
result Bayes optimal algorithm does not yield exponential decrease in simple regret.

Early-stopped aggregation improves computational efficiency in adaptive statistical inference.

problem Computational inefficiency in model selection and aggregation for adaptive inference.
method Early-stopped aggregation (ESA) framework: compute only a few simpler models using early-stopping criteria.
result ESA achieves optimal adaptive contraction rates in variational Bayes and frequentist settings.