arXiv research

A new method calculates fractional moments using the moment-generating function.

Paper derives analytical formulas for NLD-CEV moments with regime switching.

New initialization schemes preserve fractional moments of weights in deep networks, improving training and test performance.

Develops a robust GMM estimator for outlier-tolerant inference.

We develop a general framework for applying the Kelly criterion to stock markets. By supplying an arbitrary probability distribution modeling the future price movement of a set of stocks, the Kelly fraction for investing each stock can be calculated by inverting a matrix involving only first and second moments. The fra…

This paper investigates analytic properties of American option prices under the finite moment log-stable (FMLS) model. Under this model the price of American options is characterised by the free boundary problem of a fractional partial differential equation (FPDE) system. Using the technique of approximation we prove t…

Investment strategy using fractional Kelly portfolios for better growth expectations.

We consider a class of fractional stochastic volatility models (including the so-called rough Bergomi model), where the volatility is a superlinear function of a fractional Gaussian process. We show that the stock price is a true martingale if and only if the correlation $ρ$ between the driving Brownian motions of the …

Reinforcement learning addresses the dilemma between exploration to find profitable actions and exploitation to act according to the best observations already made. Bandit problems are one such class of problems in stateless environments that represent this explore/exploit situation. We propose a learning algorithm for…

Study tests rough fractional volatility model across different time scales, revealing new volatility patterns.

We address the problem of computing approximate marginals in Gaussian probabilistic models by using mean field and fractional Bethe approximations. We define the Gaussian fractional Bethe free energy in terms of the moment parameters of the approximate marginals, derive a lower and an upper bound on the fractional Beth…

We address the problem of computing approximate marginals in Gaussian probabilistic models by using mean field and fractional Bethe approximations. As an extension of Welling and Teh (2001), we define the Gaussian fractional Bethe free energy in terms of the moment parameters of the approximate marginals and derive an …

Composite likelihood inference of fractional Gaussian processes with sequentially optimal subset selection

This article deals with the problem of optimal allocation of capital to corporate bonds in fixed income portfolios when there is the possibility of correlated defaults. Using a multivariate normal Copula function for the joint default probabilities we show that retaining the first few moments of the portfolio default l…

We introduce a criterion, resilience, which allows properties of a dataset (such as its mean or best low rank approximation) to be robustly computed, even in the presence of a large fraction of arbitrary additional data. Resilience is a weaker condition than most other properties considered so far in the literature, an…

We review some aspects, especially those we can tackle analytically, of a minimal model of closed economy analogous to the kinetic theory model of ideal gases where the agents exchange wealth amongst themselves such that the total wealth is conserved, and each individual agent saves a fraction (0 < lambda < 1) of wealt…

Polynomial-time algorithm learns high-dimensional halfspaces without labels.

NeuroMemFPP uses LSTM to estimate FPP parameters with high accuracy.

Analyzed a generalized voter model with power-law herding intensity, revealing anomalous diffusion and long-range memory.

Modeling joint log-volatility dynamics with multivariate fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

The paper proposes estimators for bid-ask spreads with and without serial dependence.

A new distribution family extends the $\alpha$-stable distribution with a degree of freedom parameter.

We consider the problem of sparsity-constrained $M$-estimation when both explanatory and response variables have heavy tails (bounded 4-th moments), or a fraction of arbitrary corruptions. We focus on the $k$-sparse, high-dimensional regime where the number of variables $d$ and the sample size $n$ are related through $…

Unified framework for mean testing under truncation bias.

Many complex systems generate multifractal time series which are long-range cross-correlated. Numerous methods have been proposed to characterize the multifractal nature of these long-range cross correlations. However, several important issues about these methods are not well understood and most methods consider only o…

We study optimal investment strategies that maximize expected utility from consumption and terminal wealth in a pure-jump asset price model with Markov-modulated (regime switching) jump-size distributions. We give sufficient conditions for existence of optimal policies and find closed-form expressions for the optimal v…

In this paper we propose a new model for pricing stock and dividend derivatives. We jointly specify dynamics for the stock price and the dividend rate such that the stock price is positive and the dividend rate non-negative. In its simplest form, the model features a dividend rate that is mean-reverting around a consta…

Paper presents robust confidence sequences for means with known moment bounds and arbitrary corruption.

MuML models predict molecular dipole moments using atomic partial charges and dipoles.

We test for departures from normal and independent and identically distributed (NIID) returns, when returns under the alternative hypothesis are self-affine. Self-affine returns are either fractionally integrated and long-range dependent, or drawn randomly from an L-stable distribution with infinite higher-order moment…

Improved CR Sobolev inequalities on CR sphere established.

Volterra square-root process boundary behavior and martingale measures

New estimator tackles multi-task linear regression with outliers, avoiding eigenvalue lower bounds.

New robust regression method works with fewer data points than previous methods.

Fast simulates Volterra processes using RFF, focusing on S-fBM.

This paper proposes a novel model of financial prices where: (i) prices are discrete; (ii) prices change in continuous time; (iii) a high proportion of price changes are reversed in a fraction of a second. Our model is analytically tractable and directly formulated in terms of the calendar time and price impact curve. …

Robust Q-learning algorithm resists corrupted rewards.

New algorithm for batch list-decodable linear regression with stronger guarantees.

In order to model volatile real-world network behavior, we analyze phase-flipping dynamical scale-free network in which nodes and links fail and recover. We investigate how stochasticity in a parameter governing the recovery process affects phase-flipping dynamics, and find the probability that no more than q% of nodes…

This paper investigates multiscaling in the rough Bergomi model, finding it primarily due to fat-tailed returns.

Polynomial-time private algorithm for robust estimation of mean and covariance in the presence of outliers.

New method for estimating covariance with robustness to outliers.

In this work we present a new approach on studying dynamical systems. Combining the two ways of expressing the uncertainty, using probabilistic theory and credibility theory, we have research the generalized fractional hybrid equations. We have introduced the concepts of generalized fractional Wiener process, generaliz…

Methods from the geometry of nonholonomic manifolds and Lagrange-Finsler spaces are applied in fractional calculus with Caputo derivatives and for elaborating models of fractional gravity and fractional Lagrange mechanics. The geometric data for such models are encoded into (fractional) bi-Hamiltonian structures and as…

Introduces fractional k-dimensional measure bridging fractional length and area.

New method generates realistic financial price paths with drawdowns.

The theory of derivative of noninteger order goes back to Leibniz, Liouville and Riemann. Derivatives of fractional order have found many applications in recent studies in mechanics, physics, economics. In this paper we define the fractional tangent bundle on a manifold, using a method of Radu Miron. The fractional Lei…

Let $S_g$ be a closed orientable surface of genus $g \geq 2$ and $C$ a simple closed nonseparating curve in $F$. Let $t_C$ denote a left handed Dehn twist about $C$. A \textit{fractional power} of $t_C$ of \textit{exponent} $\fraction{\ell}{n}$ is an $h \in \Mod(S_g)$ such that $h^n = t_C^{\ell}$. Unlike a root of a $t…