Generic model for commodity derivatives pricing.
problem Modeling forward curves in commodity derivatives.
method Theoretical demonstration of multiple components driving commodity prices; empirical validation.
result Model accurately prices commodity derivatives, close to market prices.
We study the forward price dynamics in commodity markets realized as a process with values in a Hilbert space of absolutely continuous functions defined by Filipović. The forward dynamics are defined as the mild solution of a certain stochastic partial differential equation driven by an infinite dimensional Lévy proces…
Two new models for forward power prices capture clustering jumps.
problem Describing forward power prices with clustering jumps.
method Continuous branching processes with immigration and Hawkes processes with exponential kernel.
result Models adequately describe forward prices evolution in French power market.
A new model captures forward curve dynamics with stochastic volatility.
problem Modeling continuous-time evolution of forward curves in financial markets.
method Affine stochastic volatility model with modulated dynamics.
result Model allows for maturity-specific risk and volatility clustering.
This work optimizes reservoir computing models by linking recurrence and non-linear dynamics.
problem Understanding how recurrence and non-linear dynamics in cortical networks contribute to their function.
method Transformed time-continuous, recurrent dynamics into an effective feed-forward structure of linear and non-linear temporal kernels.
result Optimal time-series classifiers can be built from random reservoir networks, demonstrating significant performance gains.
In this paper we show how to approximate a Heath-Jarrow-Morton dynamics for the forward prices in commodity markets with arbitrage-free models which have a finite dimensional state space. Moreover, we recover a closed form representation of the forward price dynamics in the approximation models and derive the rate of c…
Improves predictions by integrating forward-looking views into dynamic factor models.
problem Poor forecasts from historical data when dynamics change.
method Combines historical data with forward-looking views using a dynamic factor model.
result Derives optimal portfolio strategies influenced by both myopic and intertemporal factors.
New method for dynamic valuation in markets with random endowments.
problem Dynamic valuation in markets with random endowments.
method Developed new FBSDE systems and established optimality conditions.
result Established necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality.
Study optimal investment and reinsurance for insurance companies in a dynamic market model.
problem Optimal investment and reinsurance strategies for insurance companies in a regime-switching market model.
method Forward dynamic exponential utility, value function construction, proportional reinsurance optimization.
result Characterization of optimal investment strategy and proportional reinsurance level.
Model interest rates and energy futures with regime-switching dynamics.
problem Modeling interest rates and energy futures with regime-switching dynamics.
method HJM model with Markov-chain modulated forward rates, proving affine structure for term structure.
result Explicit solutions for forward curves in many cases.
Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite dimensional) Wiener process and a compensated Poisson random measure. A major innovation of the paper is t…
TOLD++ improves convergence of diffusion models by critically damping the forward transition matrix.
problem Improving the convergence of Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models.
method Critically damping the Third-Order Langevin Dynamics (TOLD) forward transition matrix using eigen-analysis.
result TOLD++ converges faster than TOLD, verified on toy and real datasets.
Study variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives under stochastic volatility.
problem Variance-optimal hedging of forward curve derivatives with stochastic volatility.
method Assumes HJM-Musiela dynamics modulated by stochastic covariance, uses Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe projection.
result Density of finite-maturity strategies, convergence of finite-rank projections, decomposition of hedging error.
Extended flatness approach for discrete-time systems considers forward and backward shifts.
problem Defining flatness for discrete-time systems with forward-shifts.
method Introducing backward-shifts to extend flatness definition.
result Extended flat systems maintain key properties like reachability and controllability.
Paper proposes BMPO to optimize policies using bidirectional models.
problem Model-based reinforcement learning's reliance on forward model accuracy.
method Develops BMPO using both forward and backward models for policy optimization.
result BMPO outperforms state-of-the-art methods in sample efficiency and asymptotic performance.
We derive a forward partial integro-differential equation for prices of call options in a model where the dynamics of the underlying asset under the pricing measure is described by a -possibly discontinuous- semimartingale. A uniqueness theorem is given for the solutions of this equation. This result generalizes Dupire…
New method uses neural nets in Hilbert space for option pricing on flow forwards.
problem Pricing options on flow forwards with neural networks in Hilbert space.
method Optimization problem in Hilbert space solved by a novel feedforward neural network architecture.
result Excellent numerical efficiency and superior performance over classical methods.
A new dual test for forward-flatness simplifies computations.
problem Checking forward-flatness in discrete-time systems.
method A unique sequence of integrable codistributions.
result Computational efficiency and comparison with dynamic feedback linearization.
Neural Flow Diffusion Models improve diffusion models by learning flexible forward processes.
problem Fixed forward processes in diffusion models complicate reverse processes and increase inference costs.
method Introduces NFDM, a framework supporting flexible forward processes and a novel parameterization technique.
result Demonstrates strong performance in likelihood estimation and learning generative dynamics.
Proposes a new framework for discount models.
problem Arbitrage-free dynamic framework for discount models.
method Derives general consistency conditions for factor models.
result Alternative to Heath--Jarrow--Morton framework for forward rates.
We construct a no-arbitrage model of bond prices where the long bond is used as a numeraire. We develop bond prices and their dynamics without developing any model for the spot rate or forward rates. The model is arbitrage free and all nominal interest rates remain positive in the model. We give examples where our mode…
ACI identifies cause-effect relationships and causal influence ranges in dynamical systems.
problem Detecting and quantifying causal influence ranges in complex systems.
method Bayesian data assimilation and assimilative causal inference (ACI) to trace causes back from observed effects.
result Mathematically rigorous formulations of forward and backward causal influence ranges (CIRs) for nonlinear dynamical systems.
Study on feature learning dynamics in infinite-depth neural networks, focusing on ResNets.
problem Understanding how features evolve during training in deep neural networks, especially in the large-depth limit.
method Conditional Gaussian representations and SDE system with decoupled backward weights.
result Depth-induced suppression of forward-backward coupling in infinite-depth networks, leading to a decoupled forward-backward SDE system.
Study of portfolio management under relative performance concerns using mean field games.
problem Portfolio management problems under relative performance concerns.
method Forward utilities of CARA type, mean field games, best response and equilibrium strategies.
result Solve forward-utility finite player game and mean-field game under asset specialization.
The article constructs a forward utility for markets with multiple default risks.
problem Characterizing forward performance processes in a market with multiple default risks.
method Using Jacod-Pham decomposition and recursive BSDEs, the article constructs a forward utility and proves its existence and uniqueness.
result The article identifies the risk-sensitive long-run growth rate of the optimal wealth process in a stochastic factor model with ergodic dynamics.
A new model for forward curves captures behavior through a single equation.
problem Modeling forward curves in a complex function space.
method Developed a stochastic partial differential equation with locally state-dependent coefficients.
result The model retains simplicity while capturing entire forward curve behavior.
We describe a model for evolving commodity forward prices that incorporates three important dynamics which appear in many commodity markets: mean reversion in spot prices and the resulting Samuelson effect on volatility term structure, decorrelation of moves in different points on the forward curve, and implied volatil…
Optimal insurance and investment strategy under exponential preferences in a correlated market model.
problem Optimal investment and reinsurance strategy for an insurance company under exponential preferences.
method Stochastic control techniques to construct a forward dynamic exponential utility and characterize the optimal strategy.
result Characterization of the optimal investment and reinsurance strategy in a correlated market model.
In conventional ODE modelling coefficients of an equation driving the system state forward in time are estimated. However, for many complex systems it is practically impossible to determine the equations or interactions governing the underlying dynamics. In these settings, parametric ODE model cannot be formulated. Her…
We consider the problem of optimal portfolio selection under forward investment performance criteria in an incomplete market. The dynamics of the prices of the traded assets depend on a pair of stochastic factors, namely, a slow factor (e.g. a macroeconomic indicator) and a fast factor (e.g. stochastic volatility). We …
Classifies shapes of yield curves in the Svensson family.
problem Classifying shapes of yield curves in the Svensson family.
method Complete classification of shapes using mathematical analysis.
result Certain complex shapes cannot appear after a deterministic time horizon.
Blade uses diffusion priors to accurately and calibratedly infer complex systems.
problem Derivative-free Bayesian inversion for high-dimensional, nonlinear problems with costly forward models.
method Blade employs an ensemble of interacting particles and diffusion models as priors, querying forward models only through evaluations.
result Blade produces well-calibrated posterior samples that existing methods cannot, improving with more iterations and particles.
The paper models SOFR and EFFR dynamics, reconciling diffusive and piecewise paths.
problem Updating interest rate models for SOFR, which is becoming a key benchmark.
method Calibrates a model to SOFR and EFFR futures prices, reconciling diffusive and piecewise paths.
result The model reflects key empirical features of SOFR dynamics and reconciles diffusive and piecewise paths.
FISAR uses neural networks to optimize safe reinforcement learning with forward-invariant constraints.
problem Safe reinforcement learning with constraints in safety-critical environments.
method Imposing linear constraints on policy parameters' updating dynamics, using a DNN-based optimizer to satisfy these constraints.
result The policy decreases constraint violation and maximizes cumulative reward monotonically.
We introduce two simple models of forward-backward stochastic differential equations with a singular terminal condition and we explain how and why they appear naturally as models for the valuation of CO2 emission allowances. Single phase cap-and-trade schemes lead readily to terminal conditions given by indicator funct…
Study pricing options on forward contracts using infinite-dimensional affine models.
problem Pricing European-style options on forward contracts in complex stochastic volatility models.
method Model forward price curves using stochastic partial differential equations modulated by stochastic volatility processes. Analyze two classes of affine stochastic volatility models: Gaussian and pure-jump. Derive conditions for existence of exponential moments and develop semi-closed pricing formulas.
result Developed semi-closed Fourier-based pricing formulas for vanilla call and put options in infinite-dimensional affine models.
We derive the price of a spread option based on two assets which follow a bivariate volatility modulated Volterra process dynamics. Such a price dynamics is particularly relevant in energy markets, modelling for example the spot price of power and gas. Volatility modulated Volterra processes are in general not semimart…
This paper offers a new class of models of the term structure of interest rates. We allow each instantaneous forward rate to be driven by a different stochastic shock, constrained in such a way as to keep the forward rate curve continuous. We term the process followed by the shocks to the forward curve ``stochastic str…
Model explains yield curve dynamics using order flow shocks.
problem Understanding the yield curve's fluctuations and their relation to order flows.
method Relates exogenous shocks to order flow surprises, creating a microstructural model that incorporates price and order flow dynamics.
result The model explains yield curve dynamics with fewer parameters and generates liquidity-dependent correlations.
LD-EnSF speeds up data assimilation with sparse observations.
problem Efficiently assimilate sparse and noisy data into complex dynamical systems.
method LD-EnSF uses latent dynamics networks and history-aware LSTM encoders to process sparse observations without full-space simulations.
result Achieves significant speedups over existing methods while maintaining high accuracy.
Paper introduces a new value function for state transitions and optimal policy learning.
problem Learning optimal policies from state transitions and actions.
method Develops a forward dynamics model to maximize a novel value function Q(s,s′). result Demonstrates benefits in value function transfer, redundant action spaces, and off-policy learning.
Paper introduces a new method for calibrating ESGs to both historical and forward-looking data.
problem Lack of a generally accepted methodology for calibrating ESGs to forward-looking information.
method Conditional Scenario Simulator framework for consistent calibration of economic and financial variables.
result Framework can embed various financial and macroeconomic models and demonstrate practical examples in frequentist and Bayesian settings.
Consider the problem of pricing options on forwards in energy markets, when spot prices follow a geometric multi-factor model in which several rates of mean reversion appear. In this paper we investigate the role played by slow mean reversion when pricing and hedging options. In particular, we determine both upper and …
Statistical finite elements use Langevin dynamics to efficiently handle uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in finite element models with observed data.
method Langevin dynamics, unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA), for sampling posterior distributions.
result ULA provides a scalable and efficient method for characterizing the posterior distribution of statFEM models.
We introduce the concept of forward rank-dependent performance processes, extending the original notion to forward criteria that incorporate probability distortions. A fundamental challenge is how to reconcile the time-consistent nature of forward performance criteria with the time-inconsistency stemming from probabili…
A new method uses higher-order Langevin dynamics with critical damping for better generative modeling.
problem Improving generative models using Langevin dynamics with auxiliary variables.
method Introducing higher-order Langevin dynamics with critical damping, providing closed-form solutions.
result Improved generative models with better performance as measured by FID metric.
We provide a unified framework for modeling LIBOR rates using general semimartingales as driving processes and generic functional forms to describe the evolution of the dynamics. We derive sufficient conditions for the model to be arbitrage-free which are easily verifiable, and for the LIBOR rates to be true martingale…
The paper introduces a new short rate model with memory components.
problem Modeling short rate dynamics with past values.
method Integrates memory (delay) components into Merton or Vasiček models.
result Analytical solutions for bond prices and forward rates.