This paper quantifies and mitigates a bias in the Hayashi-Yoshida estimator causing data loss.
problem Formulaic bias in the Hayashi-Yoshida estimator leading to data loss.
method Formalizes and quantifies the data loss, introduces (a,b)-asynchronous adversary, and provides algorithms.
result Proves that for equal rates, the minimal average cumulative data loss is 25%.
New RL algorithms correct bias in dynamic data analysis.
problem Dynamic data generation and analysis create endogeneity issues.
method Instrument variable (IV)-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms.
result Established theoretical properties of IV-RL algorithms.
Deep learning improves causal effect estimation from complex observational data.
problem Estimating causal effects from complex observational data with low bias.
method Unified deep learning framework using multitask recurrent neural networks.
result Deep learning estimator shows lower bias in causal effect estimates.
Proposes a new algorithm to estimate invariant subspaces across multilayer networks.
problem Estimating invariant subspaces across heterogeneous multiple networks.
method Bias-corrected joint spectral embedding algorithm that recursively calibrates diagonal bias and iteratively updates the subspace estimator.
result Established entrywise subspace perturbation bound and entrywise eigenvector central limit theorem for the algorithm.
Extended Gauss-Markov theorem for linear estimation with bounded bias.
problem Linear estimation with bounded bias operator.
method Derive optimal estimator formulas for Nuclear and Spectral norms, analyze generalization error.
result Cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors outperform Ridge regression in simulations.
We prove the main rules of causal calculus (also called do-calculus) for i/o structural causal models (ioSCMs), a generalization of a recently proposed general class of non-/linear structural causal models that allow for cycles, latent confounders and arbitrary probability distributions. We also generalize adjustment c…
This work explores the importance of model weights and Hessian bias in pruning.
problem Understanding the relative importance of model weights for efficient pruning.
method A principled exploration of pruning, focusing on linear models and neural networks.
result Asymptotic formulas reveal the performance of different pruning methods.
Study links neural network inductive bias, feature learning, and generalization on Boolean functions.
problem Understanding how neural networks learn and generalize on Boolean data.
method End-to-end analysis of depth-2 discrete fully connected networks and DNF formulas, using Monte Carlo learning.
result Predictable training dynamics and interpretable features emerge, linking inductive bias and generalization.
Developed a flexible Bayesian g-formula for causal survival analysis with time-dependent confounding.
problem Estimating causal survival curves in longitudinal observational studies with time-varying treatments and confounding.
method Incorporated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into the g-formula to model time-evolving generative components and mitigate bias due to model misspecification.
result Demonstrated improved empirical performance and practical utility of the proposed method through simulations and real-world data analysis.
An efficient conditioning technique, the so-called Brownian Bridge simulation, has previously been applied to eliminate pricing bias that arises in applications of the standard discrete-time Monte Carlo method to evaluate options written on the continuous-time extrema of an underlying asset. It is based on the simple a…
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure that is being used extensively in various domains. We develop a new formula for the gradient of the CVaR in the form of a conditional expectation. Based on this formula, we propose a novel sampling-based estimator for the CVaR gradient, in the spirit of the l…
New analysis reveals optimal regularization for ESNs, avoiding double descent.
problem Characterizing and optimizing Echo State Networks (ESNs) for precise bias-variance.
method Random matrix theory applied to ESNs in a teacher-student setting.
result ESNs achieve lower MSE with limited training samples and teacher memory.
New method separates model and non-model risks for more practical asset pricing.
problem Asset pricing under model-uncertainty.
method Binary model-risks and constraints over preferences; unique model-risk pricing formula.
result Unique model-risk pricing formula with dynamically conserved constant.
This paper is on the normal approximation of singular subspaces when the noise matrix has i.i.d. entries. Our contributions are three-fold. First, we derive an explicit representation formula of the empirical spectral projectors. The formula is neat and holds for deterministic matrix perturbations. Second, we calculate…
Develops unbiased averaging methods for second order optimization in distributed systems.
problem Computing the Hessian is challenging and communication is a bottleneck in distributed optimization.
method Unbiased parameter averaging methods using sampling and sketching of the Hessian.
result Provably minimizes bias for sketched Newton directions.
We characterize the small-time asymptotic behavior of the exit probability of a Lévy process out of a two-sided interval and of the law of its overshoot, conditionally on the terminal value of the process. The asymptotic expansions are given in the form of a first-order term and a precise computable error bound. As an …
One of the distinguishing characteristics of modern deep learning systems is that they typically employ neural network architectures that utilize enormous numbers of parameters, often in the millions and sometimes even in the billions. While this paradigm has inspired significant research on the properties of large net…
Modeling risk and performance with Levy-stable distributions.
problem Understanding risk and performance in financial markets with non-Gaussian distributions.
method Developed a finite-horizon model using Levy-stable scaling, identified parameters from data, derived formulas for various financial ratios.
result Horizon-correct formulas for risk measures are derived and validated across different horizons.
Siegel's paradox is a fundamental question in international finance about exchange rates for futures contracts and has puzzled many scholars for over forty years. The unorthodox approach presented in this article leads to an arbitrage-free solution which is invariant under currency re-denominations and is symmetric, as…
FJS method improves multinomial classification accuracy.
problem Improving multinomial classification accuracy under dataset shift.
method Derive FJS representation and propose alternative methods.
result Factorizable joint shift is not fully identifiable without additional assumptions.
DNF-Net tackles tabular data challenges with neural architecture.
problem Handling tabular data efficiently using neural networks.
method DNF-Net uses a neural architecture with inductive bias corresponding to logical Boolean formulas in disjunctive normal form over affine soft-threshold decision terms.
result DNF-Net significantly outperforms fully connected networks on tabular data.
In this paper we introduce a family of stochastic gradient estimation techniques based of the perturbative expansion around the mean of the sampling distribution. We characterize the bias and variance of the resulting Taylor-corrected estimators using the Lagrange error formula. Furthermore, we introduce a family of va…
Kristensen and Mele (2011) developed a new approach to obtain closed-form approximations to continuous-time derivatives pricing models. The approach uses a power series expansion of the pricing bias between an intractable model and some known auxiliary model. Since the resulting approximation formula has closed-form it…
Research shows bias in machine learning can be due to algorithmic flaws, not just data.
problem Underestimation bias in machine learning algorithms.
method Initial research to understand factors contributing to bias in classification algorithms.
result Regularization methods to address overfitting can also accentuate bias.
Kernel Density Estimation is a very popular technique of approximating a density function from samples. The accuracy is generally well-understood and depends, roughly speaking, on the kernel decay and local smoothness of the true density. However concrete statements in the literature are often invoked in very specific …
Financial LLMs need explicit bias consideration to avoid invalid results.
problem Finance-specific biases inflate performance and contaminate backtests.
method Identified five recurring biases and proposed a Structural Validity Framework.
result Explicit bias consideration is necessary for valid deployment claims.
We study the phenomenon of bias amplification in classifiers, wherein a machine learning model learns to predict classes with a greater disparity than the underlying ground truth. We demonstrate that bias amplification can arise via an inductive bias in gradient descent methods that results in the overestimation of the…
It has been noticed that some external CVIs exhibit a preferential bias towards a larger or smaller number of clusters which is monotonic (directly or inversely) in the number of clusters in candidate partitions. This type of bias is caused by the functional form of the CVI model. For example, the popular Rand index (R…
Optimizes wide low-rank neural networks for reduced parameters and cost.
problem Reducing the number of learnable parameters in wide neural networks.
method Analyzed edge-of-chaos dynamics and derived formulae for optimal weight and bias variances.
result Optimal weight and bias variances for low-rank networks follow from multiplicative scaling.
Mitigates gender bias amplification in model predictions.
problem Gender bias amplification in model predictions.
method Posterior regularization to mitigate bias.
result Almost removes gender bias amplification in model predictions.
Depth uncertainty networks don't improve with bias correction, contrary to expectations.
problem Improving performance in active learning with overparameterised models like NNs.
method Depth uncertainty networks, compared to underparameterised models, show no improvement in performance with bias correction.
result Depth uncertainty networks do not improve with bias correction, unlike underparameterised models.
We quantify causal bias in continuous treatment settings.
problem Identifying and quantifying causal bias in continuous treatment scenarios.
method Developed a novel characterization of causal bias in structural causal models, proving conditions for zero bias and efficient estimation.
result Causal bias can be estimated efficiently under certain structural equation restrictions, allowing for causal regularization of predictive models.
The paper introduces Relative Bias to quantify LLM bias systematically.
problem Quantifying bias in LLMs is challenging due to ambiguity and rapid model emergence.
method Relative Bias framework using Embedding Transformation and LLM-as-a-Judge methodologies.
result The two scoring methods show strong alignment, providing a systematic approach.
Interpolated-MLPs control inductive bias for better performance in low-compute tasks.
problem Low-compute performance gap between MLPs and CNNs.
method Introduced Interpolated MLP (I-MLP) approach to control inductive bias incrementally.
result Continuous logarithmic relationship between inductive bias and performance in low-compute tasks.
SSMs have a built-in bias towards low-frequency components, which can be adjusted.
problem Frequency bias in SSMs affects their performance on long-range sequences.
method Proposed two mechanisms to tune frequency bias: scaling initialization or applying a Sobolev-norm-based filter.
result Tuning frequency bias improves SSMs' performance on long-range sequence learning tasks.
A bias classifier is introduced to resist adversarial attacks.
problem Resisting adversarial attacks on deep neural networks (DNNs).
method Introducing the bias part of a DNN with Relu as the activation function as a classifier, and adding a random first-degree part to make it information-theoretically safe.
result The bias classifier is more robust than DNNs of similar size against adversarial attacks.
UBM transfers bias mitigation from upstream to downstream tasks efficiently.
problem Bias in fine-tuned language models across various tasks.
method Apply bias mitigation to an upstream model, then fine-tune a downstream model on this mitigated model.
result UBM effects transfer to new downstream tasks, creating less biased models.
Social bias in machine learning has drawn significant attention, with work ranging from demonstrations of bias in a multitude of applications, curating definitions of fairness for different contexts, to developing algorithms to mitigate bias. In natural language processing, gender bias has been shown to exist in contex…
Active learning introduces bias; this paper fixes it.
problem Bias in active learning due to non-representative training data.
method Formalized bias, identified situations where it's harmful/helpful, introduced corrective weights.
result Corrective weights can improve active learning, especially with overparameterized models.
Bias correction improves language model training performance.
problem Stochastic update bias in preconditioned optimizers.
method Cross-fitted preconditioning and variance-corrected inversion.
result Reduces held-out pretraining loss by 0.15 nats.
Ensembles improve classifier performance by reducing bias, not variance.
problem Improving classifier performance through ensemble methods.
method Extended bias-variance decomposition for classification tasks, introducing dual reparameterization.
result Ensembling reduces bias in classifiers, contrary to the traditional view.
Study finds gender bias in human evaluators and shows how machine learning can mitigate it.
problem Gender bias in human decision-making on micro-lending platforms.
method Structural econometric model and machine learning algorithms trained on real-world data.
result Machine learning algorithms can mitigate both preference-based and belief-based biases.
Reduces gender bias in patient notes while maintaining medical classification accuracy.
problem Bias in natural language processing of patient notes.
method Identifying and removing gendered language using BERT-based classifiers, then augmenting data to maintain performance.
result Minimal degradation in health condition classification tasks with data augmentation.
Develops a method to quantify racial bias in law enforcement systems.
problem Quantify racial bias in law enforcement systems considering criminality and multi-stage interactions.
method Multi-stage causal framework incorporating criminality.
result Identifies three canonical scenarios of racial bias in law enforcement.
Study analyzes bias interactions in multimodal models using simulation-based methods.
problem Analyzing dynamic bias interactions in multimodal models to ensure fairness and equity.
method Simulation-based heuristic approach to compute bias scores for text-only, image-only, and multimodal embeddings.
result Multimodal bias interactions can be amplification, mitigation, or neutral, with text bias often dominant.
Study uncovers bias in image classification models using attribution maps.
problem Data bias in image classification models.
method Created an artificial dataset with known bias, trained CNNs, and used attribution maps to inspect decisions.
result Different attribution map techniques highlight bias better than others, and metrics support bias identification.
Study on bias and extrapolation in LSA with Markovian data, showing bias reduction with Richardson-Romberg extrapolation.
problem Bias in LSA with constant stepsizes and Markovian data.
method Viewing LSA as a Markov chain, proving convergence and bias expansion, and applying Richardson-Romberg extrapolation.
result Bias is proportional to the stepsize up to higher order terms, and Richardson-Romberg extrapolation reduces the bias.
The paper detects and identifies bias in data using a counterfactual approach.
problem Detecting and identifying bias in data, especially in medical image classification.
method A global explanation framework using the counterfactual approach to identify bias causing artifacts.
result Black frames significantly influence Convolutional Neural Network's prediction, changing benign to malignant.