Classifies load forecasting studies by forecasting problem.
problem Selecting appropriate load forecasting techniques and methodologies.
method Classification based on two forecasting problem parameters.
result Synthetic view of relevant forecasting techniques and methodologies.
In this article, we propose a novel ensemble technique with a multi-scheme weighting based on a technique called coopetitive soft gating. This technique combines both, ensemble member competition and cooperation, in order to maximize the overall forecasting accuracy of the ensemble. The proposed algorithm combines the …
This paper compares forecasting techniques for sales data, focusing on profit-driven models.
problem Choosing the best forecasting technique for sales data is challenging.
method Compares various forecasting methods including ML, statistics, and econometrics.
result Simple seasonal models consistently outperform other methodologies.
Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.
problem Inability to assess intrinsic uncertainties and capture dynamic changes in consumption patterns.
method Adaptive online learning of hidden Markov models for recursive parameter updates and sequential prediction.
result Significant improvement in performance compared to existing techniques across various scenarios.
Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions. However, if the demand function is lumpy in nature, then the general demand foreca…
Study compares forecasting methods for distribution grid loads.
problem Improving load prediction accuracy in distribution grids.
method Evaluation of probabilistic forecasting techniques on distribution grid load prediction.
result Hierarchical techniques enhance bottom-level forecast accuracy.
In machine learning, a nonparametric forecasting algorithm for time series data has been proposed, called the kernel spectral hidden Markov model (KSHMM). In this paper, we propose a technique for short-term wind-speed prediction based on KSHMM. We numerically compared the performance of our KSHMM-based forecasting tec…
This study assesses the influence of the forecast horizon on the forecasting performance of several machine learning techniques. We compare the fo recast accuracy of Support Vector Regression (SVR) to Neural Network (NN) models, using a linear model as a benchmark. We focus on international tourism demand to all sevent…
This paper compares traditional econometric and contemporary machine/deep learning techniques for forecasting foreign exchange rates.
problem Accurate prediction of foreign exchange rates for investment purposes.
method Multivariate time series analysis using Vector Auto Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Recurrent Neural Networks.
result Contemporary machine/deep learning techniques outperform traditional econometric methods in forecasting foreign exchange rates.
New technique improves time series forecasting with less data.
problem Challenges in time series forecasting with limited data.
method Random sampling of non-consecutive time steps to increase training samples and capture finer temporal dependencies.
result Competitive results achieved compared to state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.
Enhances load forecasting for multiple entities with dynamic similarities.
problem Inaccurate probabilistic load predictions due to uncertainties and dynamic changes.
method Online multi-task learning for probabilistic load forecasting.
result Significantly enhances load forecasting accuracy across various scenarios.
We derive generalization error bounds for traditional time-series forecasting models. Our results hold for many standard forecasting tools including autoregressive models, moving average models, and, more generally, linear state-space models. These non-asymptotic bounds need only weak assumptions on the data-generating…
The paper evaluates various forecasting methods for inflation, finding ML models superior.
problem Forecasting inflation using disaggregated data and machine learning.
method Examines traditional and machine learning models, including random forest, for disaggregated and aggregated inflation forecasts.
result Aggregating disaggregated forecasts performs similarly to survey-based expectations and aggregate models.
A new framework detects forecast model inadequacies using online monitoring of forecast errors.
problem Inaccurate forecasts lead to poor decision-making in complex models.
method Sequential changepoint techniques on forecast errors for real-time identification of process changes.
result The framework identifies shifts in forecast errors faster than in the original models, indicating process changes.
Improved sales forecasting at various levels using ensemble methods.
problem Enhancing sales forecasting accuracy at different levels of e-commerce data.
method Hierarchical robust aggregation of sales forecasts using exponential smoothing and Holt's linear trend method.
result Better forecasts at subsubfamily, subfamily, and family levels compared to individual techniques.
This paper examines how different data normalization techniques affect DNN performance in time series forecasting.
problem Improving DNN performance for time series forecasting with nonlinear, dynamic data.
method Different data normalization techniques were applied to time series data before feeding it into a DRNN model for forecasting.
result Data normalization significantly impacts the DNN's performance in time series forecasting.
New method uses nearest neighbors quantile filter for probabilistic energy forecasting.
problem Creating accurate probabilistic energy forecasts using complex data mining techniques.
method Uses a new nearest neighbors quantile filter to create quantile regressions without a non-differentiable cost function.
result Demonstrates superior performance in Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014.
Deep learning models predict solar irradiance for short-term forecasts.
problem Accurate prediction of solar irradiance for renewable energy integration.
method Sequence-to-sequence LSTM models for GHI forecasting, incorporating spatial-temporal features.
result LSTM models outperform traditional techniques in short-term GHI forecasting.
The study compares differencing methods for financial data and finds fractional differencing improves model performance.
problem Improving financial time series forecasting models using appropriate data transformation techniques.
method Comparative analysis of traditional logarithmic returns and fractional differencing methods, including tempered extensions.
result Fractional differencing methods improve model forecasting performance and trading strategy effectiveness.
New data set and method for BTO supply chain demand forecasting.
problem Lack of demand forecasting methods for BTO supply chains.
method Proposes a novel data transformation technique for BTO products.
result Approach compares well to state-of-the-art methods and is easy to implement.
Two new methods improve forecasting of functional time series data.
problem Forecasting of functional time-dependent data.
method Functional Singular Spectrum Analysis (FSFA) based forecasting methods.
result Our methods outperform existing algorithms for periodic stochastic processes.
This study enhances sales forecasts by integrating market indicators into forecasting models.
problem Traditional forecasting models rely solely on historical demand data.
method Automated integration of macroeconomic time series data (GDP growth) into forecasting models using feature selection methods.
result Feature selection methods, especially Forward Feature Selection, significantly improve forecasting accuracy.
Improves demand forecasting accuracy through recurrent transform learning.
problem Challenging task of building demand forecasting.
method Developed two versions of recurrent transform learning (RTL and R2TL) for feature extraction and regression.
result Both RTL and R2TL techniques outperform state-of-the-art methods.
A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilber…
This study evaluates methods to measure traffic forecasting model confidence.
problem Lack of consensus on uncertainty types and techniques for traffic forecasting models.
method Reviews and compares different uncertainty estimation techniques using real traffic data.
result Empirical evidence shows benefits and caveats of various techniques.
The problem of probabilistic forecasting and online simulation of real-time electricity market with stochastic generation and demand is considered. By exploiting the parametric structure of the direct current optimal power flow, a new technique based on online dictionary learning (ODL) is proposed. The ODL approach inc…
Study predicts bond yields using machine learning and ultimate forward rates.
problem Forecasting bond yields using ultimate forward rates.
method Applied de Kort-Vellekooptype methodology for UFR estimation, used linear and nonlinear machine learning techniques.
result Nonlinear machine learning models outperform linear models in bond yield forecasting.
Quantum kernel improves probabilistic time series forecasting.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in probabilistic time series predictions.
method Integrates quantum kernel with Gaussian process regression.
result Quantum kernel enhances forecasting performance.
This review explores probabilistic forecasting methods in evolving energy markets.
problem Volatility and uncertainty in renewable energy markets require probabilistic forecasting for risk assessment.
method Traces evolution from Bayesian and distribution-based approaches to conformal prediction.
result Probabilistic forecasting offers a more comprehensive approach to risk assessment and market participation.
Forecasting US stock market indices during COVID-19 using machine learning models.
problem Predicting stock market behavior during the pandemic.
method Used Random Forest and LSTM models on historical stock prices.
result Improved accuracy in forecasting stock market returns.
Proposes LSTM for financial market trend forecasting.
problem Challenges in financial market trend forecasting.
method Uses LSTM for financial market trend forecasting.
result Improves performance compared to traditional methods.
Improved county-level COVID-19 forecasting model using LSTM and data augmentation.
problem Accurately forecasting county-level COVID-19 cases to optimize medical resources.
method Adapted TDEFSI-LONLY model, utilized LSTM, data augmentation, and inter-county mixing.
result CLEIR-Net model provides better forecasts than TDEFSI-LONLY.
DeepPPMNet forecasts EMS demand and performs causal analyses for policy-making.
problem Accurate prediction and causal analysis of EMS demand for effective policy-making.
method DeepPPMNet, a LSTM-based framework, globally forecasts and analyzes causal relationships using Granger causality.
result DeepPPMNet outperforms traditional methods in forecasting EMS demand and policy-making.
Bayesian methods detect and forecast inclinometer anomalies in UK rail data.
problem Detecting and predicting dangerous movements in earthwork slopes.
method Bayesian UQ techniques applied to latent Markov process and non-linear Bayesian filter.
result Anomaly detection and forecasting demonstrated on large real-world data.
A model-based approach to forecasting chaotic dynamical systems utilizes knowledge of the physical processes governing the dynamics to build an approximate mathematical model of the system. In contrast, machine learning techniques have demonstrated promising results for forecasting chaotic systems purely from past time…
CMoS improves time series forecasting with minimal parameters.
problem Efficiently forecasting time series data with limited resources.
method CMoS directly models chunk-wise spatial correlations, using Correlation Mixing and Periodicity Injection techniques.
result CMoS outperforms state-of-the-art models with minimal parameters.
Paper proposes a method for estimating tropical cyclone intensity distribution using deep learning.
problem Lack of full accounting of prediction variability in single-point forecasts.
method Smooth model over target and covariates, logistic transformation for conditional density, case-control sampling approximation.
result Method provides insights into predicted response behavior, improving decision-making and policy.
Across numerous applications, forecasting relies on numerical solvers for partial differential equations (PDEs). Although the use of deep-learning techniques has been proposed, actual applications have been restricted by the fact the training data are obtained using traditional PDE solvers. Thereby, the uses of deep-le…
Deep learning improves macroeconomic forecasting and risk assessment.
problem Improving accuracy in macroeconomic forecasting and sovereign risk assessment.
method Nowcasting and forecasting using deep learning techniques.
result Deep learning methods outperform traditional econometric techniques in out-of-sample performance.
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (power-TGARCH) model. The mo…
New method improves forecast accuracy using CRPS for probabilistic predictions.
problem Improving forecast accuracy for probabilistic predictions, especially in the tails of distributions.
method Introduces a new weighting method for pointwise CRPS learning, optimizing across quantiles.
result Proposed fully adaptive Bernstein online aggregation (BOA) method for pointwise CRPS online learning has optimal convergence properties.
I introduce Forecastable Component Analysis (ForeCA), a novel dimension reduction technique for temporally dependent signals. Based on a new forecastability measure, ForeCA finds an optimal transformation to separate a multivariate time series into a forecastable and an orthogonal white noise space. I present a converg…
Framework for renewable energy forecasting and feature engineering.
problem Forecasting and feature extraction for multivariate processes in renewable energy.
method Derivative-free optimization, ensemble of sequence-to-sequence networks, additive resampling, Bootstrap aggregating.
result The proposed method outperforms other machine learning techniques in long-term forecasts and feature selection.
Zero Initialization improves short-term load forecasting accuracy.
problem Improving the learning speed and accuracy of neural networks for load forecasting.
method Proposed and tested Zero Initialization (ZI) for weights of a single layer network, comparing with Xavier, He, and Identity initialization.
result ZI reduces the number of epochs and improves accuracy in short-term load forecasting.
Forecast reconciliation improves portfolio risk forecasts, especially when true covariance is known.
problem Improving portfolio risk forecasts using multivariate GARCH models.
method Combining univariate and multivariate forecasts with forecast reconciliation techniques.
result Forecast reconciliation improves over standard multivariate approaches, especially when true covariance is known.
Simple models outperformed sophisticated ones in forecasting Turkish lira exchange rates.
problem Forecasting Turkish lira exchange rates through univariate techniques.
method Used several models including simple exponential smoothing to predict daily exchange rates.
result Simple exponential smoothing model outperformed all other alternatives.
AverageTime uses simple averaging to enhance long-term time series forecasting.
problem Long-term time series forecasting with improved intra-sequence and cross-channel dependencies.
method Proposes AverageTime, a simple, efficient, and scalable forecasting model that reframes channel extraction as a stackable architecture.
result AverageTime surpasses state-of-the-art models in forecasting performance with near-linear complexity.
We refute Taleb's claim that election forecasts are arbitrage-violating.
problem The validity of probabilistic election forecasts using no-arbitrage pricing techniques.
method We use mild assumptions to show all forecasts are arbitrage-free.
result Taleb's heuristic for evaluating forecasts is incorrect.