Efficiently predicts worst-case force configurations for structural analysis.
problem Computational challenges in determining critical force locations with uncertainty.
method Experimental design method to select force locations, simple regression model, post-processing step.
result Significant improvements over existing methods and brute force approaches.
Study uses GPLFM to create Digital Twin for ferry quay health monitoring.
problem Deterioration of ferry quays due to harsh maritime environments and impacts.
method Gaussian Process Latent Force Model (GPLFM) integrating physics-based model and machine learning.
result GPLFM provides accurate acceleration response estimates, even under simplifying assumptions.
Proposes linking energy and force uncertainty in deep learning potentials.
problem Uncertainty in predicted energies and forces in machine learning models.
method Introduces a spatially correlated noise process to link energy and force uncertainty.
result Demonstrates the approach on molecular datasets, linking energy and force uncertainties.
TSCoNet forecasts correlated geophysical fields with uncertainty estimates.
problem Accurate and reliable forecasts of correlated geophysical fields across many locations.
method Two-stage CNN-LSTM coupled with Gaussian copula.
result Calibrated prediction intervals without sacrificing point accuracy.
New method reduces uncertainty in AI-driven Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Epistemic uncertainty in AI surrogate models affects Monte Carlo sampling outcomes.
method Penalty Ensemble Method (PEM) modifies Metropolis acceptance rule to increase rejection probability in uncertain regions.
result PEM enhances reliability of Monte Carlo simulations by reducing uncertainty propagation.
Framework predicts responses in misspecified systems using GPLFM and BNNs.
problem Predicting responses in dynamical systems with model misspecification.
method Integrates GPLFM and BNNs for uncertainty-aware inference and prediction.
result Systematic propagation of uncertainty from diagnosis to prediction.
Understanding how spatial configurations of economic activity emerge is important when formulating spatial planning and economic policy. A simple model was proposed by Simon, who assumed that firms grow at a rate proportional to their size, and that new divisions of firms with certain probabilities relocate to other fi…
This paper optimizes UAV and FeICIC locations in a three-tier LTE-Advanced network.
problem Optimizing UAV and FeICIC locations in a three-tier LTE-Advanced network.
method Integrates UAVs as both UE and BS in LTE-Advanced HetNet, uses CRE, ICIC, 3D beamforming, and genetic algorithms for optimization.
result Heuristic algorithms outperform brute-force techniques in achieving better 5pSE and coverage probability.
We introduce an algorithm to locate contours of functions that are expensive to evaluate. The problem of locating contours arises in many applications, including classification, constrained optimization, and performance analysis of mechanical and dynamical systems (reliability, probability of failure, stability, etc.).…
Optimizes seismic monitoring networks using Bayesian OED.
problem Improve seismic event identification and location.
method Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) to configure sensor networks.
result Optimized sensor network improves seismic event identification and location.
The conditional-mean barrier helps diagnose deterministic surrogates missing uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in deterministic surrogates for complex systems.
method Developed diagnostics to locate the conditional-mean barrier and prove its necessity for distributional objectives.
result Crossing the barrier requires a loss that scores distributions, not point predictions.
DeepONet accelerates reliability analysis of stochastic nonlinear systems.
problem Time-dependent reliability analysis of systems with stochastic forcing.
method DeepONet, a novel operator network, learns function-to-function mappings.
result DeepONet efficiently and accurately predicts system responses.
Bayesian model improves traffic prediction with uncertainty estimates.
problem Lack of uncertainty estimates in deep-learning traffic models.
method Proposes a Bayesian recurrent neural network with spectral normalization.
result Spectral normalization improves uncertainty estimates and generalizability.
Geometric approach solves maximum likelihood for Cauchy-like distributions.
problem Estimating center and scatter robustly from heavy-tailed data.
method Geodesic convexity and symmetry spaces of noncompact type.
result Efficient numerical solution for robust estimates of location and spread.
In the present paper the electrostatic of charges in non rotating BTZ black hole and wormhole space times is studied. In particular, the self force of a point charge in the geometry is characterized analitically. The differences between the self force in both cases is a theoretical experiment for distinguishing both ge…
PenduMAV is a 6-input omnidirectional MAV without internal forces.
problem Designing a MAV without internal forces and structural costs.
method Multibody dynamics derivation, SE(3) control, Lyapunov analysis, Gazebo simulations.
result Asymptotic stabilization of the closed-loop system under parametric uncertainty and actuator noise.
Active learning reduces SP calculations by 90%.
problem Efficiently calculating saddle points in energy functions.
method Active learning framework with GPR and GAD.
result Significant reduction in the number of expensive evaluations.
Locational Marginal Pricing aims to free UK power markets.
problem Unfree and regulated power markets.
method Implementing Locational Marginal Pricing.
result Increased economic freedom, reduced prices, decreased losses, incentivized investment.
Identifies conjugate points in spherical harmonics solutions of quasi-geostrophic equations.
problem Locating conjugate points in spherical harmonics solutions.
method Utilizing structure constants and quasi-geostrophic equations on the sphere, identifying conjugate points.
result Existence and location of conjugate points along spherical harmonics solutions.
Hybrid framework predicts Arctic permafrost decline, risks infrastructure, and provides tools.
problem Tackles permafrost decline and infrastructure risk assessment in Arctic territories.
method Hybrid physics-machine learning framework integrating 2.9 million observations.
result Projects mean permafrost fraction decline of -20.3 pp under RCP8.5 forcing, with high-risk zones identified.
New method improves sample diversity and efficiency from complex distributions.
problem Sampling from intractable un-normalized distributions with high auto-correlation.
method Stein self-repulsive dynamics using a repulsive force to push samples away from past trajectories.
result Significantly decreases auto-correlation and increases effective sample size.
A new method estimates uncertainty without explicit prediction models.
problem Costly data acquisition in machine learning.
method Distance-weighted Class Impurity method for uncertainty estimation.
result Distance-weighted Class Impurity effectively estimates uncertainty without prediction models.
This paper benchmarks Bayesian models' ability to estimate predictive correlations, especially for active learning.
problem Benchmarking how accurately Bayesian models estimate predictive correlations, especially in active learning.
method Considered transductive active learning as a benchmark, introduced meta-correlations and cross-normalized likelihoods.
result Meta-correlations and cross-normalized likelihoods can efficiently evaluate predictive correlations and are consistent with TAL performance.
DLFM models complex systems with uncertainty, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Modeling highly nonlinear dynamical systems with robust uncertainty quantification.
method Deep latent force model (DLFM) using physics-informed kernels derived from ODEs.
result DLFM achieves comparable performance to non-physics-informed models on univariate tasks and captures dynamics in real-world data.
Improves model-based control and exploration by estimating model uncertainty.
problem Inaccuracies in model predictions lead to frequent re-planning, inefficiency, and unreliability.
method Estimates model uncertainty using reconstruction error and uses it for better control and active exploration.
result Improves control performance and exploration efficiency by choosing confident model predictions and planning for high uncertainty.
We extend the lifecycle model (LCM) of consumption over a random horizon (a.k.a. the Yaari model) to a world in which (i.) the force of mortality obeys a diffusion process as opposed to being deterministic, and (ii.) a consumer can adapt their consumption strategy to new information about their mortality rate (a.k.a. h…
Bayesian ptychography method reduces overlap for faster imaging.
problem Reduced overlap leads to large data volumes and long acquisition times.
method Generative model combined with MCMC for posterior sampling.
result Framework consistently outperforms iterative reconstruction methods with reduced overlap.
Bayesian method finds robust optima in expensive black-box functions.
problem Optimizing expensive black-box functions with sensitivity to inputs.
method Bayesian optimisation using Gaussian process prior and evolutionary algorithm for sampling and evaluation.
result Locating a region of design space with relatively insensitive performance to inputs.
Deep neural network predicts multiphase flow in heterogeneous domains.
problem Predicting multiphase flow in complex, heterogeneous systems.
method Deep neural network model for handling permeability heterogeneity and learning interplay of forces.
result Highly accurate predictions of CO2 saturation distribution with computational efficiency.
The paper models reverse logistics network design considering product uncertainty and risk.
problem Maximizing profits from returned products of uncertain quality and quantity.
method Mixed Integer Non-linear Programming (MINLP) model with CVaR risk measure.
result Considering risk improves profits by more conservatively pricing and sorting products.
This work provides uncertainty intervals for semantic latent variables in disentangled latent spaces.
problem Challenges in providing meaningful uncertainty quantification for semantic information in disentangled latent spaces.
method Uses quantile regression to output heuristic uncertainty intervals, calibrates these intervals to contain true latent values, and propagates them through the generator.
result Reliably communicates semantically meaningful, principled, and instance-adaptive uncertainty in image super-resolution and image completion.
UAIL uses uncertainty estimation to improve control systems in safety-critical tasks.
problem Improving control systems in safety-critical domains like autonomous driving.
method UAIL applies Monte Carlo Dropout to estimate uncertainty in control output and selectively acquire new training data.
result UAIL can reliably predict infractions and outperforms existing algorithms.
Metrics assess uncertainty structure and distribution for regression models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in high-dimensional and nonlinear regression tasks.
method Two bounded comparison metrics for uncertainty structure and distribution.
result DNNs and DNOs provide encouraging uncertainty metric values in high dimensions.
New method provides valid confidence intervals for spatial associations.
problem Limited insight into covariate-response relationships in spatial settings.
method Lipschitz-driven uncertainty quantification for spatial association.
result Valid frequentist confidence intervals for associations in spatial settings.
New method for estimating spatial associations with discrete data, even under model misspecification.
problem Estimating associations between covariates and discrete responses with spatial variability and nonrandom sampling.
method Proposes a novel approach to handle spatially varying noise, provides a proof of consistency, and uses a delta method argument.
result Empirically shows reliable confidence intervals compared to standard methods, even with model misspecification.
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs, but inference in these models has proved challenging. Existing approaches to infe…
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE) of 0.8% at a two-year horizon for the period between 1965 and 2002 (the best amon…
Bayesian Gaussian process models handle uncertain data locations in PDE approximations.
problem Handling uncertainties in data locations for PDE approximations.
method Bayesian inference of uncertain inputs integrated into Gaussian process predictions.
result Substantial reduction in predictive uncertainties achieved through Bayesian inference.
Elevating houses to flood risk increases uncertainty, leading to higher optimal elevations.
problem Deciding how high to elevate houses to manage riverine flood risks is complex due to uncertainties.
method Used a multi-objective robust decision-making framework to analyze uncertainties.
result Optimal house elevation can be significantly higher than FEMA's recommendation due to deep uncertainties.
ε-shotgun optimizes expensive function evaluations in parallel.
problem Optimizing expensive black-box functions efficiently.
method ε-greedy batch Bayesian optimisation.
result ε-shotgun outperforms state-of-the-art batch methods.
CE improves climate uncertainty quantification using GCM ensembles and observational data.
problem Uncertainty in climate projections due to model inadequacies and variability.
method Conformal ensembles integrating GCM ensembles and observational data.
result CE generates statistically rigorous, easy-to-interpret uncertainty estimates.
Grey-box model combines GP with motion data to analyze skiing forces.
problem Analyzing forces in cross-country skiing races.
method Combines motion model formulae with Gaussian process regression.
result Grey-box approach reduces predictive uncertainty by 30-40%.
Proposes a new framework for uncertainty-aware LLM post-training.
problem Heterogeneous, conflicting data in large language models.
method α-Rényi variational framework for learning distributions over post-training parameters.
result Enables training examples to be softly routed across ensemble members, promoting model specialisation and providing uncertainty estimates.
Optimizes sampling in continuous domains by adjusting search distribution.
problem Improving sampling efficiency in continuous domains.
method Analyzes and refines the search distribution based on population size and dimension.
result Explicit values for reshaping the search distribution are provided.
Bayesian optimisation tackles uncertain inputs in noisy function evaluations.
problem Optimizing functions with uncertain query locations and noisy outcomes.
method Proposes a UCB algorithm for BO with uncertain inputs, using Gaussian process models.
result Theoretical and experimental results show the proposed algorithm outperforms conventional methods.
We consider unsupervised domain adaptation: given labelled examples from a source domain and unlabelled examples from a related target domain, the goal is to infer the labels of target examples. Under the assumption that features from pre-trained deep neural networks are transferable across related domains, domain adap…
New method uses biased MD to create accurate MLIPs.
problem Creating a comprehensive data set for MLIPs.
method Bias MD by MLIP's energy uncertainty, using gradient-based uncertainties.
result Develops uniformly accurate MLIPs with lower computational cost.
Dual random fields improve mineral potential predictions.
problem Limited understanding of multi-dimensional causalities and dependencies.
method Introduces dual random fields to pool response functions across the domain.
result Spatial inference and uncertainty assessment of response models and predictions.