arXiv research

The average economic agent is often used to model the dynamics of simple markets, based on the assumption that the dynamics of many agents can be averaged over in time and space. A popular idea that is based on this seemingly intuitive notion is to dampen electric power fluctuations from fluctuating sources (as e.g. wi…

Predicting absolute magnitude of fluctuations of price, even if their sign remains unknown, is important for risk analysis and for option prices. In the present work, we display our predictions about absolute magnitude of daily fluctuations of the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA), utilizing the original theory of c…

In a recent Nature paper, Gabaix et al. \cite{Gabaix03} presented a theory to explain the power law tail of price fluctuations. The main points of their theory are that volume fluctuations, which have a power law tail with exponent roughly -1.5, are modulated by the average market impact function, which describes the r…

We study the nature of fluctuations in variety of price indices involving companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The fluctuations at multiple scales are extracted through the use of wavelets belonging to Daubechies basis. The fact that these basis sets satisfy vanishing moments conditions makes them ideal to …

In structural credit risk models, default events and the ensuing losses are both derived from the asset values at maturity. Hence it is of utmost importance to choose a distribution for these asset values which is in accordance with empirical data. At the same time, it is desirable to still preserve some analytical tra…

Sornette et al. claimed that the optimal supply does not agree with the average demand, by analyzing a bakery model where a daily demand fluctuates with a uniform distribution. In this note, we extend the model to general probability distributions, and obtain the formula of the optimal supply for Gaussian distribution,…

The paper shows Gaussian fluctuations in eigenvalue statistics of random hyperbolic surfaces.

Study shows cryptocurrency price fluctuations become more similar to national currencies over time.

We introduce a microscopic model for the dynamics of the order book to study how the lack of liquidity influences price fluctuations. We use the average density of the stored orders (granularity $g$) as a proxy for liquidity. This leads to a Price Impact Surface which depends on both volume $ω$ and $g$. The dependence …

We analyze the daily stock data of the Nasdaq Composite index in the 22-year period 1992-2013 and identify market states as clusters of correlation matrices with similar correlation structures. We investigate the stability of the correlation structure of each state by estimating the statistical fluctuations of correlat…

We study the average shape of a fluctuation of a time series x(t), that is the average value <x(t)-x(0)>_T before x(t) first returns, at time T, to its initial value x(0). For large classes of stochastic processes we find that a scaling law of the form <x(t) - x(0)>_T = T^αf(t/T) is obeyed. The scaling function f(s) is…

In this manuscript we present a comprehensive study on the multifractal properties of high-frequency price fluctuations and instantaneous volatility of the equities that compose Dow Jones Industrial Average. The analysis consists about quantification of dependence and non-Gaussianity on the multifractal character of fi…

A time series that represents daily values of the WIG index (the main index of Warsaw Stock Exchange) over last 5 years is examined. Non-Gaussian features of distributions of fluctuations, namely returns, over a time scale are considered. Some general properties like exponents of the long range correlation estimated by…

Stochastic gradient descent's long-term fluctuations are described by a diffusion limit.

We analyze the constituents stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA30) and the Standard & Poor's 100 index (S&P100) of the NYSE stock exchange market. Surprisingly, we discover the data collapse of the histograms of the DJIA30 price fluctuations and of the S&P100 price fluctuations to the universal non-paramet…

The time average of geometric Brownian motion plays a crucial role in the pricing of Asian options in mathematical finance. In this paper we consider the asymptotics of the discrete-time average of a geometric Brownian motion sampled on uniformly spaced times in the limit of a very large number of averaging time steps.…

A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm and sector level. We describe such fluctuations as independent Lévy-stable fluctu…

Study classifies stock price data into stationary and non-stationary periods for mechanical trading.

We extend our previous study of scaling range properties done for detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) \cite{former_paper} to other techniques of fluctuation analysis (FA). The new technique called Modified Detrended Moving Average Analysis (MDMA) is introduced and its scaling range properties are examined and compared…

Notwithstanding the significant efforts to develop estimators of long-range correlations (LRC) and to compare their performance, no clear consensus exists on what is the best method and under which conditions. In addition, synthetic tests suggest that the performance of LRC estimators varies when using different genera…

An average instantaneous cross-correlation function is introduced to quantify the interaction of the financial market of a specific time. Based on the daily data of the American and Chinese stock markets, memory effect of the average instantaneous cross-correlations is investigated over different price return time inte…

Based on the daily data of American and Chinese stock markets, the dynamic behavior of a financial network with static and dynamic thresholds is investigated. Compared with the static threshold, the dynamic threshold suppresses the large fluctuation induced by the cross-correlation of individual stock prices, and leads…

Paper finds significant impact of stock market swings on equity risk premium predictability.

The possibility that price dynamics is affected by its distance from a moving average has been recently introduced as new statistical tool. The purpose is to identify the tendency of the price dynamics to be attractive or repulsive with respect to its own moving average. We consider a number of tests for various models…

The financial market is nonpredictable, as according to the Bachelier, the mathematical expectation of the speculator is zero. Nevertheless, we observe in the price fluctuations the two distinct scales, short and long time. Behaviour of a market in long terms, such as year intervals, is different from that in short ter…

In this study, the fluctuation-dissipation theory is invoked to shed light on input-output interindustrial relations at a macroscopic level by its application to IIP (indices of industrial production) data for Japan. Statistical noise arising from finiteness of the time series data is carefully removed by making use of…

The cluster analysis methods are used in order to perform a comparative study of 15 EU countries in relation with the fluctuations of some basic macroeconomic indicators. The statistical distances between countries are calculated for various moving time windows, and the time variation of the mean statistical distance i…

From the stock markets of six countries with high GDP, we study the stock indices, S&P 500 (NYSE, USA), SSE Composite (SSE, China), Nikkei (TSE, Japan), DAX (FSE, Germany), FTSE 100 (LSE, Britain) and NIFTY (NSE, India). The daily mean growth of the stock values is exponential. The daily price fluctuations about the me…

The purpose of this paper is to derive the anisotropic averaged Euler equations and to study their geometric and analytic properties. These new equations involve the evolution of a mean velocity field and an advected symmetric tensor that captures the fluctuation effects. Besides the derivation of these equations, the …

Records of the traded value f_i(t) of stocks display fluctuation scaling, a proportionality between the standard deviation sigma(i) and the average <f(i)>: sigma(i) ~ f(i)^alpha, with a strong time scale dependence alpha(dt). The non-trivial (i.e., neither 0.5 nor 1) value of alpha may have different origins and provid…

The paper proves local laws for non-separable sample covariance matrices.

Intertrade duration of equities is an important financial measure characterizing the trading activities, which is defined as the waiting time between successive trades of an equity. Using the ultrahigh-frequency data of a liquid Chinese stock and its associated warrant, we perform a comparative investigation of the sta…

Multifractal detrended cross-correlation methodology is described and applied to Foreign exchange (Forex) market time series. Fluctuations of high frequency exchange rates of eight major world currencies over 2010-2018 period are used to study cross-correlations. The study is motivated by fundamental questions in compl…

The paper provides exact multivariate amplitude distributions for non-stationary Gaussian or algebraic fluctuations.

We examine several recently suggested methods for the detection of long-range correlations in data series based on similar ideas as the well-established Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). In particular, we present a detailed comparison between the regular DFA and two recently suggested methods: the Centered Moving A…

We introduce a stochastic price model where, together with a random component, a moving average of logarithmic prices contributes to the price formation. Our model is tested against financial datasets, showing an extremely good agreement with them. It suggests how to construct trading strategies which imply a capital g…

The optimization of large portfolios displays an inherent instability to estimation error. This poses a fundamental problem, because solutions that are not stable under sample fluctuations may look optimal for a given sample, but are, in effect, very far from optimal with respect to the average risk. In this paper, we …

We report on a study of the Tehran Price Index (TEPIX) from 2001 to 2006 as an emerging market that has been affected by several political crises during the recent years, and analyze the non-Gaussian probability density function (PDF) of the log returns of the stocks' prices. We show that while the average of the index…

Masanao Aoki developed a new methodology for a basic problem of economics: deducing rigorously the macroeconomic dynamics as emerging from the interactions of many individual agents. This includes deduction of the fractal / intermittent fluctuations of macroeconomic quantities from the granularity of the mezo-economic …

We use variational Gaussian approximations to analyze parametric models with unknown data-generating distributions.

We consider the roughness properties of NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) stock-price fluctuations. The statistical properties of the data are relatively homogeneous within the same day but the large jumps between different days prevent the extension of the analysis to large times. This leads to intrinsic finite size effe…

Study finds intrinsic multifractality in maize and barley spot markets, but not in wheat and rice.

CNN predicts stock fluctuations using company news headlines.

We present a family of models for the term structure of interest rates which describe the interest rate curve as a stochastic process in a Hilbert space. We start by decomposing the deformations of the term structure into the variations of the short rate, the long rate and the fluctuations of the curve around its avera…

We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the corre…

Using Trades and Quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delicate interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to super-diffusion (or persistence), and mean reverting limit orders that lead to sub-diffu…

We study, using Mean Curvature Flow methods, 2+1 dimensional cosmologies with a positive cosmological constant and matter satisfying the dominant and the strong energy conditions. If the spatial slices are compact with non-positive Euler characteristic and are initially expanding everywhere, then we prove that the spat…

We study the multi-scale temporal correlations and causality connections between the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) monthly average closing price indexes for a period of 300 months, encompassing the time period of the liberalisation of the Indian economy and its gradual global exposure. …