Elevating houses to flood risk increases uncertainty, leading to higher optimal elevations.
problem Deciding how high to elevate houses to manage riverine flood risks is complex due to uncertainties.
method Used a multi-objective robust decision-making framework to analyze uncertainties.
result Optimal house elevation can be significantly higher than FEMA's recommendation due to deep uncertainties.
Study finds more flood risk strategies can improve outcomes in NYC.
problem Managing future flood risks with complex models.
method Used an intermediate complexity model to analyze flood risk strategies.
result More combinations of risk mitigation strategies expand the solution set and improve outcomes.
This paper analyzes extreme flooding risks and proposes insurance and bond solutions.
problem Severe rise in magnitude and frequency of floods causing catastrophic losses.
method Extremes analysis using Peaks-Over-Threshold method and Point Process model; Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional VaR (CVaR) estimation; Flood zoning insurance and catastrophic bond design.
result Developed flood risk vulnerability and threat analysis considering geography and economic factors; Proposed flood zoning insurance and catastrophic bond design.
Framework improves ML flood mapping generalization.
problem Improving machine learning models' ability to generalize to new conditions.
method Dimensionless, multi-scale features constrained by the Buckingham Π theorem.
result Model outperformed dimensional features, improving AUC in unmapped areas.
Neural network model forecasts extreme flood risk.
problem Accurately estimating high quantiles of extreme events.
method EQRN model combining neural networks and extreme value theory.
result Forecasting flood risk with improved adaptability.
Develops a climate risk model for asset managers.
problem Climate-related risks affecting asset performance and productivity.
method Uses the Vasicek model with downward jumps to represent climate impacts on asset dynamics.
result Expected losses increase over time due to climate-related extreme events.
Predicting flood for any location at times of extreme storms is a longstanding problem that has utmost importance in emergency management. Conventional methods that aim to predict water levels in streams use advanced hydrological models still lack of giving accurate forecasts everywhere. This study aims to explore arti…
Study improves flood loss risk models using historical data and rainfall data.
problem Predicting financial losses from flooding events.
method Used neural networks, decision trees, and kernel-based regressors on NFIP dataset, incorporating rainfall data.
result Extreme Gradient Boosting provided the best results, and bias correction improved model performance.
Geospatial framework assesses climate risks for California's banking and exposed sectors.
problem Evaluating climate risks on banking and exposed sectors in California.
method Integrates hazard mapping, exposure analysis, and scenario-based financial risk assessment.
result Framework supports portfolio monitoring and institutional readiness under new standards.
LSTM model predicts rainfall runoff with high temporal resolution.
problem Accurate and efficient rainfall runoff simulations for flood risk management.
method Data-driven rainfall runoff model using Long-short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks.
result LSTM model achieves high-resolution discharge predictions with improved performance.
Novel Orlicz regrets consistently bound environmental variable statistics.
problem Consistent evaluation of stochastic environmental variables like water quality indices.
method Proposed novel Orlicz regrets for upper and lower bounds.
result Explicit linkage between Orlicz regrets and divergence risk measures.
Study optimal risk sharing in decentralized peer-to-peer markets with robust risk measures.
problem Optimizing risk sharing in decentralized markets with non-convex risk measures.
method Characterization of Pareto-optimal allocations using robust distortion risk measures and probabilistic risk aversion.
result Shape of allocations depends on agents' tail risk assessments.
Flooding is a destructive and dangerous hazard and climate change appears to be increasing the frequency of catastrophic flooding events around the world. Physics-based flood models are costly to calibrate and are rarely generalizable across different river basins, as model outputs are sensitive to site-specific parame…
We consider an optimal control problem of a property insurance company with proportional reinsurance strategy. The insurance business brings in catastrophe risk, such as earthquake and flood. The catastrophe risk could be partly reduced by reinsurance. The management of the company controls the reinsurance rate and div…
Flood extent mapping plays a crucial role in disaster management and national water forecasting. Unfortunately, traditional classification methods are often hampered by the existence of noise, obstacles and heterogeneity in spectral features as well as implicit anisotropic spatial dependency across class labels. In thi…
Forecast dam inflow using sea surface feature weights.
problem Accurate dam inflow forecasting for flood mitigation.
method Extracted sea surface features, applied L2-norm ensemble weighting, used PCA and t-SNE for dimensionality reduction, and calibrated regression models.
result The proposed method improves predictor stability and accuracy in dam inflow forecasting.
Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, which are highly complex to model. The research on the advancement of flood prediction models contributed to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimization of the loss of human life, and reduction the property damage associated with floods. To mimic the complex …
Study optimizes climate adaptation strategies for NYC.
problem Catastrophic damages from extreme weather in NYC.
method Real options analysis and extreme value theory.
result Optimal adaptation pathways identified for NYC.
HydroNets use river structure to improve hydrologic predictions.
problem Scalable and accurate hydrologic models are needed for climate change impacts.
method HydroNets are deep neural networks that incorporate river network structure.
result HydroNets improve predictions with fewer data, especially at longer horizons.
New method provides reliable high-confidence prediction intervals for high-impact events.
problem High-impact events require very high confidence prediction intervals, but classical methods provide uninformative intervals.
method Bridge extreme value statistics and conformal prediction to provide reliable and informative prediction intervals.
result Provides reliable and informative prediction intervals with high-confidence coverage.
Hybrid deep learning model predicts urban floods with high accuracy.
problem Urban flood prediction and situation awareness using channel network sensors data.
method FastGRNN-FCN hybrid deep learning model trained on Harris County, Texas flood data.
result Test accuracy and F-measure reach 97.8% and 0.792, respectively.
Modeling supply chain disruptions from climate hazards with adaptive firms.
problem Systemic physical climate risk in supply chains.
method Agent-based model integrating geospatial hazards and firm adaptation.
result Firms' adaptive strategies reduce disruption by 48%.
Deep learning framework predicts streamflow and flood probabilities in Australian catchments.
problem Large-scale flooding prediction challenges due to model calibration and missing data.
method Ensemble quantile-based deep learning framework using quantile regression and CAMELS dataset.
result Notable efficacy and uncertainties in streamflow forecasts with varied catchment properties.
Flood forecasts are crucial for effective individual and governmental protective action. The vast majority of flood-related casualties occur in developing countries, where providing spatially accurate forecasts is a challenge due to scarcity of data and lack of funding. This paper describes an operational system provid…
CNN model predicts fluvial floods quickly and accurately.
problem Real-time flood prediction is computationally demanding.
method Deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) trained on 2D hydraulic model outputs.
result CNN model outperforms SVR in predicting flood inundation.
Physically-based overland flow models are computationally demanding, hindering their use for real-time applications. Therefore, the development of fast (and reasonably accurate) overland flow models is needed if they are to be used to support flood mitigation decision making. In this study, we investigate the potential…
A new model predicts spatially varying inland flooding from time-varying inputs.
problem Ignoring time series and spatial correlations in flood models leads to inaccurate predictions.
method Introduced a multioutput Gaussian process model with separable kernels for functional inputs and spatial locations.
result The model provides accurate predictions of spatially varying inland flooding with minimal computational time.
Study tackles criterion collapse in learning criteria, showing conditions for loss minimization.
problem Criterion collapse in optimization, focusing on error probability minimizers.
method Analyzes various learning criteria, including DRO, OCE risks, and non-monotonic criteria.
result Non-monotonic criteria can avoid collapse, while monotonic ones cannot.
Flooding prevents deep networks from achieving zero training loss, improving test performance.
problem Deep networks can achieve zero training error but often have zero training loss, leading to overconfidence and poor test performance.
method Flooding prevents training loss from reaching zero by applying gradient ascent when loss is below a preset flood level.
result Flooding improves test performance and induces a double descent curve of the test loss.
This paper uses VAE to generate extreme events from multivariate data.
problem Generating accurate extremes from observational data for risk assessment.
method Variational Autoencoder (VAE) approach for multivariate heavy-tailed distributions.
result Improves learning of dependency structure between extremes.
Model shows how heterogeneity in strategies and risk tolerance affects financial market stability.
problem Understanding how heterogeneity impacts financial market dynamics.
method Agent-based model incorporating heterogeneous investment strategies and risk tolerance.
result Heterogeneity in strategies and risk tolerance suppresses price fluctuations.
SoftAD improves classification accuracy with less fine-tuning and fewer computational costs.
problem Improving classification accuracy with less fine-tuning and fewer computational costs.
method SoftAD is a softened, pointwise mechanism that downweights borderline points and limits the effects of outliers.
result SoftAD achieves classification accuracy competitive with flooding and SAM, with a smaller loss generalization gap and model norm.
New protocol reduces communication costs for heterogeneous bandits over complex networks.
problem Minimizing group regret in a multi-agent, heterogeneous bandit setting over complex networks.
method Flooding with Absorption (FwA) protocol for heterogeneous bandits over complex networks.
result FwA protocol significantly reduces communication costs compared to flooding while maintaining similar regret performance.
Paper introduces a framework for managing cyber risk with insurance and cybersecurity models.
problem Pervasive challenges in managing cyber risk, especially for capital allocation.
method Combines insurance frequency-severity models with cybersecurity cascade models for comprehensive cyber risk assessment. Facilitates informed capital allocation through a two-pillar framework.
result Demonstrates the necessity of comprehensive cost-benefit analysis for budget-constrained companies.
This research develops a dynamic risk management system for industrial companies.
problem Risk assessment and management in industrial enterprises.
method Qualitative and quantitative analysis, systematic risk classification, dynamic system development.
result Effective risk management strategies formed through dynamic risk management system and risk assessment methods.
Framework for managing cyber risks in networks.
problem Managing systemic cyber risks in digital networks.
method Three components: acceptable configurations, risk mitigation interventions, and cost function.
result Effective decision-making for network resilience.
Satellite imaging is a critical technology for monitoring and responding to natural disasters such as flooding. Despite the capabilities of modern satellites, there is still much to be desired from the perspective of first response organisations like UNICEF. Two main challenges are rapid access to data, and the ability…
Though machine learning has achieved notable success in modeling sequential and spatial data for speech recognition and in computer vision, applications to remote sensing and climate science problems are seldom considered. In this paper, we demonstrate techniques from unsupervised learning of future video frame predict…
This paper explores portfolio management strategies to maximize alpha and minimize beta.
problem Maximizing returns while minimizing risk in investment portfolios.
method Examines asset allocation, diversification, active management, and risk management strategies.
result Combining these strategies optimizes portfolio performance.
Research identifies risks in selecting project managers for civil engineering projects.
problem Lack of awareness of project manager selection criteria and associated risks.
method Combined ANP-FMEA approach for risk analysis.
result ANP-FMEA model identifies more significant risks than traditional FMEA.
Machine learning predicts dam-break flood wave behavior accurately.
problem Predicting long-term wave behavior in dam-break floods.
method Solved Saint-Venant equations using Lax-Wendroff scheme, trained RC-ESN with flow depth data.
result RC-ESN model predicts 286 time-steps ahead with RMSE < 0.01, outperforming LSTM.
Paper proposes real-time risk metrics for stablecoin protocols.
problem Lack of risk management frameworks for stablecoins.
method Developed two risk metrics: capitalization and liquidity.
result Demonstrated practical benefits of real-time on-chain data.
Paper presents a risk management framework for blockchain protocols.
problem Blockchain protocol risks affecting DLT and digital assets.
method Developed a comprehensive risk management framework using traditional taxonomy.
result Structured approach to identify, measure, monitor and report blockchain protocol risks.
This review classifies electricity price models for risk management.
problem Choosing suitable models for risk management in electricity markets.
method Classification of models based on their ability to represent price behavior.
result Helps users select appropriate models for risk management.
The paper examines the feasibility of managing aggregate cyber-risk in IoT environments.
problem Determining sustainable conditions for providing aggregate cyber-risk coverage.
method Developed a rigorous general theory and validated it with real data.
result Conditions for sustainable aggregate cyber-risk management under heavy-tailed distributions.
Risk is part of the fabric of every business; surprisingly, there is little work on establishing best practices for systematic, repeatable risk identification, arguably the first step of any risk management process. In this paper, we present a proposal that constitutes a more holistic risk management approach, a method…
Recently developed machine learning techniques, in association with the Internet of Things (IoT) allow for the implementation of a method of increasing oil production from heavy-oil wells. Steam flood injection, a widely used enhanced oil recovery technique, uses thermal and gravitational potential to mobilize and dilu…
Effective riverine flood forecasting at scale is hindered by a multitude of factors, most notably the need to rely on human calibration in current methodology, the limited amount of data for a specific location, and the computational difficulty of building continent/global level models that are sufficiently accurate. M…