A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Model analyzes debt recycling strategies under various fiscal regimes and jurisdictions.
Study shows local governments smooth fiscal shocks from property tax revenues.
Analyzes securitization impacts on monetary and fiscal policies.
We empirically test the effects of unanticipated fiscal policy shocks on the growth rate and the cyclical component of real private output and reveal different types of asymmetries in fiscal policy implementation. The data used are quarterly U.S. observati ons over the period 1967:1 to 2011:4. In doing so, we use both …
We consider the relationship between economic activity and intervention, including monetary and fiscal policy, using a universal dynamic framework. Central bank policies are designed for growth without excess inflation. However, unemployment, investment, consumption, and inflation are interlinked. Understanding dynamic…
Georgia needs a new budget code to manage fiscal policies effectively.
During the Great Recession, Democrats in the United States argued that government spending could be utilized to "grease the wheels" of the economy in order to create wealth and to increase employment; Republicans, on the other hand, contended that government spending is wasteful and discouraged investment, thereby incr…
Deep RL solves complex macroeconomic models.
Venice used 'helicopter money' to subsidize during famine and plague, but it caused instability.
Framework ranks sectors influenced by Indian Union Budgets.
Paper uses 2-step Gradient Boosting to predict VAT tax gap.
We devise an optimal allocation strategy for the execution of a predefined number of stocks in a given time frame using the technique of discrete-time Stochastic Control Theory for a defined market model. This market structure allows an instant execution of the market orders and has been analyzed based on the assumptio…
Agents buy and sell services. All services are of equal quality. Buyers choose sellers at random. Monetary and fiscal policies are imposed by a central bank and a central government. Credit is supplied by a commercial banking system. Propensities to buy, sell, and lend depend on account balances, interest rates, tax ra…
Paper forecasts tax revenues in Bulgaria during pandemic.
This paper introduces a novel framework for designing fair and sustainable unemployment benefits, grounded in cooperative game theory and real-time fiscal policy. The labor market is modeled as a coalitional game, where a random subset of participants is employed, generating stochastic economic output. To ensure fairne…
This paper investigates the relevance of the No-Ponzi game condition for public debt (i.e. the public debt growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate, a necessary assumption for Ricardian equivalence) and of the transversality condition for the GDP growth rate (i.e. the GDP growth rate has to be lower than…
Study uses neural networks to predict firm earnings, outperforming benchmarks and analysts.
In this paper, we present own point of view how the unexpected fluctuations of the long-term real interest rate can be explained. We describe a macroeconomic environment by the modification of the fundamental macroeconomic equilibrium model called the IS-LM model. Last but not least, we suggest a possible cooperation b…
Study finds relevance of exchange and inflation rates to economic factors.
We present an elementary analysis of the dynamical aspects of the GDP / government surplus multiplier with relevance to the assessment of a country's debt repayment policy. We show the (at first) counter intuitive result that in order to reduce the Debt/GDP ratio, countries with high Debt to GDP should go into further …
We study distributions which have both fractal and non-fractal scale regions by introducing a typical scale into a scale invariant system. As one of models in which distributions follow power law in the large scale region and deviate further from the power law in the smaller scale region, we employ 2-dim quantum gravit…
This study examine the difference in the size of avalanches among industries triggered by demand shocks, which can be rephrased by control of the economy or fiscal policy, and by using the production-inventory model and observed data. We obtain the following results. (1) The size of avalanches follows power law. (2) Th…
The paper analyzes MENA region's energy consumption and policy needs for renewable energy.
IntraLayer connects digital finance platforms efficiently.
We analyze the distribution of income and income tax of individuals in Japan for the fiscal year 1998. From the rank-size plots we find that the accumulated probability distribution of both data obey a power law with a Pareto exponent very close to -2. We also present an analysis of the distribution of the debts owed b…
In this paper, we provide an integrated systems modeling approach to analyzing global externalities from a microeconomic perspective. Various forms of policy (fiscal, monetary, etc.) have addressed flaws and market failures in models, but few have been able to successfully eliminate modern externalities that remain an …
Study examines how governance, corruption, and R&D affect economic development.
This paper explores a real-world fundamental theme under a data science perspective. It specifically discusses whether fraud or manipulation can be observed in and from municipality income tax size distributions, through their aggregation from citizen fiscal reports. The study case pertains to official data obtained fr…
We show how bad and good volatility propagate through forex markets, i.e., we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on forex markets. Using high-frequency, intra-day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 - 2015 we document the dominating asymmetries in spillovers that are due to bad r…
Study maps interdependence of SDGs, finds complex, dynamic linkages.
This study analyzes public debts and deficits between European countries. The statistical evidence here seems in general to reveal that sovereign debts and government deficits of countries within European Monetary Unification-in average- are getting worse than countries outside European Monetary Unification, in particu…
JFR-rg model explains Japan's stable debt despite high interest rates and low growth.
The area of Handwritten Signature Verification has been broadly researched in the last decades, but remains an open research problem. In offline (static) signature verification, the dynamic information of the signature writing process is lost, and it is difficult to design good feature extractors that can distinguish g…
Kurdistan Region is a tourist hub. This research analyzes other Non-Oil Sectors that have huge attractions of Foreign Direct Investments into the Kurdistan Region from 2005 to 2013. Comparative analysis was carried out between Iraq and the Region, and among influential Sectors of the Economy. T-test and ANOVA are stati…
We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. …
NCoRE learns counterfactual representations for combined treatments.
A four-pronged approach to dealing with Social Science Phenomenon is outlined. This methodology is applied to Financial Services, Economic Growth and Well-Being. The four prongs are like the four directions for an army general looking for victory. Just like the four directions, we need to be aware that there is a degre…
The article detects market regimes from covariance matrices using VLSTAR and clustering models.
The study identifies and analyzes different market regimes in equity markets using advanced signal processing techniques.
Study on tax administration issues and their impact on Georgia's budget revenues.
Since governments give stimulus to firms and expect the spillover effect by fiscal policies, it is important to know the effectiveness that they can control the economy. To clarify the controllability of the economy, we investigate a firm production network observed exhaustively in Japan and what firms should be direct…
Machine learning improves invoice matching speed and accuracy.
Paper improves asset allocation using machine learning for regime detection.
Proposes methods for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes robust to unconfoundedness violations.
New model identifies regimes in non-stationary data.
Markov regime switching models have been used in numerous empirical studies in economics and finance. However, the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing the number of regimes in Markov regime switching models has been an unresolved problem. This paper derives the asymptotic distribu…
Algorithm classifies market regimes using time series signatures.
RegimeFolio optimizes portfolios by adapting to changing market regimes.