Study bounds variance modulation function for K-spider distributions.
problem Bounding variance modulation function for K-spider distributions.
method Used folded moments and total probabilities of spider legs.
result Gave an interval for the variance modulation function.
Paper proposes variance reduction for Markov chains, especially useful in MCMC.
problem Reducing variance in Markov chain additive functionals.
method Minimizes asymptotic variance of functionals over control variates.
result Significantly reduces overall finite sample variance in simulations.
We study confidence intervals based on hard-thresholding, soft-thresholding, and adaptive soft-thresholding in a linear regression model where the number of regressors k may depend on and diverge with sample size n. In addition to the case of known error variance, we define and study versions of the estimators when…
Improved mean estimation for symmetric distributions with finite-sample guarantees.
problem Estimating the mean of a symmetric distribution from samples.
method Using Fisher information rate for finite-sample guarantees.
result Finite-sample convergence close to subgaussian with variance 1/(n * I_r), where I_r is r-smoothed Fisher information.
Estimates Markov chain variance efficiently without storing samples.
problem Estimating the asymptotic variance of Markov chain functions.
method Linear stochastic approximation of Poisson equation solution.
result Optimal MSE convergence rate with finite sample guarantees.
We provide a simple explicit estimator for discretely observed Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models, prove rigorously consistency and asymptotic normality based on the single assumption that all moments of the stationary distribution of the variance process are finite, and give explicit expressions for the asymptotic …
This paper shows how to carry out efficient asymptotic variance reduction when estimating volatility in the presence of stochastic volatility and microstructure noise with the realized kernels (RK) from [Barndorff-Nielsen et al., 2008] and the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) studied in [Xiu, 2010]. To obtain …
The paper studies stochastic gradient descent with infinite variance gradients.
problem Theoretical properties of SGD with infinite variance gradients.
method Establish asymptotic behavior of SGD with infinite variance gradients.
result Asymptotic distribution of SGD is characterized as a stationary distribution of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a stable Lévy process.
A new method improves robustness and efficiency of Bayesian LOO-CV.
problem Computational expense and unreliability of classical LOO-CV in high-dimensional Bayesian models.
method Proposes a mixture estimator to compute Bayesian LOO-CV criteria with finite asymptotic variance.
result Improved robustness and efficiency in high-dimensional problems.
New IS methods fail to reduce variance in long-horizon MDPs.
problem High variance in off-policy evaluation for long-horizon domains.
method Conditional Monte Carlo analysis of IS methods.
result No strict variance reduction for per-decision or stationary IS methods in finite horizon MDPs.
Risk management in dynamic decision problems is a primary concern in many fields, including financial investment, autonomous driving, and healthcare. The mean-variance function is one of the most widely used objective functions in risk management due to its simplicity and interpretability. Existing algorithms for mean-…
Bayesian ReLU nets fix asymptotic overconfidence with infinite features.
problem Bayesian ReLU nets can be asymptotically overconfident far from training data.
method Extend finite ReLU BNNs with infinite ReLU features via a Gaussian process.
result The resulting model is asymptotically maximally uncertain far from the data.
The paper analyzes SW-SGD for MSE in biased and variance-reduced gradient estimators.
problem Analyzing MSE of SW-SGD in biased and variance-reduced gradient estimators.
method Using asymptotic normality, the paper characterizes SW-SGD's mean and variance, proving convergence and showing SW-SGD's superiority over SGD.
result SW-SGD incurs lower MSE than SGD on quadratic and convex problems.
PPI++ outperforms gold-standard labels only if pseudo-labels are highly correlated.
problem Optimizing statistical estimation using noisy pseudo-labels.
method Exact finite-sample analysis of PPI++ on mean estimation problem.
result PPI++ has provably worse estimation error than gold-standard labels alone in some settings.
Study on geodesics on random hyperbolic surfaces, showing variance asymptotic to X log X.
problem Distribution of closed geodesics on random hyperbolic surfaces.
method Viewing surfaces as random points in moduli space, studying weighted counting function.
result Variance in large genus limit is asymptotic to X log X, with exceptions.
Normal distributions ensure asymptotic variance reduction in moment matching Monte Carlo.
problem Asymptotic variance reduction in general integration problems.
method Characterization of conditions for asymptotic variance reduction using normal distributions.
result Asymptotic variance reduction is guaranteed for normal distributions in moment matching Monte Carlo.
RMDA trains structured neural networks with regularization and variance reduction.
problem Training structured neural networks with desired properties.
method RMDA algorithm for structured NNs with regularization and variance reduction.
result RMDA achieves desired structures identical to regularizer's at stationary points.
Paper develops methods for statistical inference in SGD with infinite variance.
problem Challenges in statistical inference for SGD with infinite variance.
method Model-agnostic methodology based on weak convergence and subsampling calibration.
result Asymptotically valid confidence regions for SGD in both finite and infinite variance regimes.
The study investigates the consistency of k-means clustering under finite expectation assumptions.
problem Consistency of k-means clustering under finite expectation assumptions. method Investigates the conditions under which k-means clustering is consistent, considering finite expectation instead of finite variance. result Inconsistency can arise due to extreme cluster imbalance, leading to some clusters having few points.
This paper introduces the first asymptotically optimal strategy for a multi armed bandit (MAB) model under side constraints. The side constraints model situations in which bandit activations are limited by the availability of certain resources that are replenished at a constant rate. The main result involves the deriva…
This work provides a semi-analytic approximation method for decoupled forwardbackward SDEs (FBSDEs) with jumps. In particular, we construct an asymptotic expansion method for FBSDEs driven by the random Poisson measures with σ-finite compensators as well as the standard Brownian motions around the small-variance limit …
Study derives CEV volatility for SABR model, reducing approximation error.
problem Approximating SABR model volatility accurately.
method New analytic approximations of CEV volatility derived from SABR model.
result CEV volatility approximation yields finite value at zero strike.
Consider the problem of sampling sequentially from a finite number of N≥2 populations, specified by random variables Xki, i=1,…,N, and k=1,2,…; where Xki denotes the outcome from population i the kth time it is sampled. It is assumed that for each fixed i, $\{ X^i_k \}_{k …
The paper extends logistic regression for unbounded majority classes and derives asymptotic properties.
problem Infinitely imbalanced logistic regression inference.
method Derive a second order expansion for slope parameter under unbounded majority class.
result The second order term converges to a normal distribution with a variance depending only on the minority class's mean.
A new sampler speeds up Bayesian mixture models.
problem Sampling from Bayesian finite mixture models is slow and hard.
method Introduces a non-reversible sampling scheme for Bayesian finite mixture models.
result The new sampler outperforms classical samplers in many scenarios, especially during convergence.
We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empiric…
Optimizes MCMC chains with neural control variates.
problem Reducing variance in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations.
method Uses neural networks as control variates to minimize asymptotic variance.
result Derives optimal convergence rate under various ergodicity assumptions.
The paper examines logistic regression in sparse network settings, improving inference under varying degrees of dyadic dependence.
problem Improving inference in logistic regression with sparse network data.
method Sparse network asymptotics, martingale central limit theorem, variance decomposition.
result Sparse network asymptotics lead to better variance estimators for logistic regression.
Method improves treatment effect estimation in randomized experiments.
problem Estimating distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments.
method Distributional regression framework with machine learning for variance reduction.
result The proposed method reduces variance of distributional treatment effect estimators.
FQE with deep neural networks achieves asymptotic normality and finite-sample bounds.
problem Theoretical understanding of FQE with general differentiable function approximators.
method Z-estimation theory applied to FQE with deep neural networks.
result FQE estimation error is asymptotically normal with explicit variance.
The theme in this paper is the recombining binomial tree to price American put option when the underlying stock follows constant elasticity of variance(CEV) process. Recombining nodes of binomial tree are decided from finite difference scheme to emulate CEV process and the tree has a linear complexity. Also it is deriv…
UCB-V algorithm improves on UCB for MAB problems with variance estimates.
problem Optimizing arm selection in MAB problems with variance information.
method Asymptotic and high probability analysis of UCB-V algorithm.
result UCB-V can exhibit instability in arm-pulling rates but achieves refined regret bounds.
Study improves variance calculation for random zero sets on complex manifolds.
problem Improving the variance calculation for random zero sets on complex manifolds.
method Deriving an asymptotic expansion for the variance of linear statistics of zero divisors of random holomorphic sections.
result Sharpens leading-order asymptotics for the variance of random zero sets.
Confidence intervals based on penalized maximum likelihood estimators such as the LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and hard-thresholding are analyzed. In the known-variance case, the finite-sample coverage properties of such intervals are determined and it is shown that symmetric intervals are the shortest. The length of the sho…
Asymptotic analysis of short-maturity options on realized variance in local-stochastic volatility models.
problem Analyzing the behavior of short-maturity options on realized variance in local-stochastic volatility models.
method Large deviations theory and variational problems to solve rate functions for different cases.
result Explicit solutions for the rate function in the uncorrelated case and upper/lower bounds and expansions for the correlated case.
This paper analyzes M-estimators under infinite-variance noise in high dimensions.
problem High-dimensional M-estimation with infinite-variance noise.
method Study of the Fenchel conjugate domain and its impact on risk.
result Exact risk of M-estimators under infinite-variance noise is derived.
We study nonconvex finite-sum problems and analyze stochastic variance reduced gradient (SVRG) methods for them. SVRG and related methods have recently surged into prominence for convex optimization given their edge over stochastic gradient descent (SGD); but their theoretical analysis almost exclusively assumes convex…
New statistical methods improve TD learning for policy evaluation.
problem Improving statistical inference for reinforcement learning.
method Polyak-Ruppert averaging, refined high-dimensional Berry-Esseen bounds, online plug-in estimator, asymptotic covariance matrix.
result Guaranteed finite-sample coverage of confidence regions and simultaneous confidence intervals.
Applying standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to large data sets is computationally infeasible. The recently proposed stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) method circumvents this problem in three ways: it generates proposed moves using only a subset of the data, it skips the Metropolis-Hastings a…
New strategy optimally identifies best arm in unknown variance Gaussian bandits.
problem Identifying the best arm in two-armed Gaussian bandits with unknown variances.
method Proposes a Neyman Allocation (NA)-Augmented Inverse Probability weighting (AIPW) strategy to estimate variances and draw arms adaptively.
result Demonstrates asymptotic optimality of the proposed strategy in the small-gap regime.
Paper improves off-policy evaluation for reinforcement learning with asymptotically efficient estimators.
problem Estimating target policy performance using offline data collected by a different policy.
method Developed a modified marginalized importance sampling (MIS) estimator that achieves asymptotically efficient error bounds.
result Proved that a simple modification to the MIS estimator can achieve a Cramer-Rao lower bound in mean square error.
We study the problems related to the estimation of the Gini index in presence of a fat-tailed data generating process, i.e. one in the stable distribution class with finite mean but infinite variance (i.e. with tail index α∈(1,2)). We show that, in such a case, the Gini coefficient cannot be reliably estimated usin…
There are many models, often called unnormalized models, whose normalizing constants are not calculated in closed form. Maximum likelihood estimation is not directly applicable to unnormalized models. Score matching, contrastive divergence method, pseudo-likelihood, Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, and noise contrastive…
The paper identifies the minimum mean-variance spanning set and its importance in asset evaluation.
problem Estimating the minimum subset of assets that span the efficient frontier.
method Established identification conditions and developed a novel procedure for MSS estimation and inference.
result The MSS estimator accurately covers the true MSS and converges to it at any desired confidence level.
Kernel-smoothed scores improve diffusion models by reducing memorization.
problem Diffusion models can memorize training data, leading to biased samples.
method Interpret empirical score as noisy version of true score, kernel-smoothed.
result Kernel-smoothing reduces variance and improves generalization.
Large batch sizes reduce gradient variance in DP-SGD, improving privacy.
problem Understanding why large batch sizes work in DP-SGD.
method Decomposed total gradient variance into subsampling and noise-induced variances, proving batch size independence in the limit.
result Large batch sizes reduce effective total gradient variance, improving privacy in DP-SGD.
We develop generic and efficient importance sampling estimators for Monte Carlo evaluation of prices of single- and multi-asset European and path-dependent options in asset price models driven by Lévy processes, extending earlier works which focused on the Black-Scholes and continuous stochastic volatility models. Usin…
Paper proposes CIV estimator for categorical instruments in small sample settings.
problem Estimation with categorical instruments in settings with few observations per category.
method CIV estimator leveraging regularization assumption for latent categorical variable.
result CIV estimator is asymptotically normal, efficient, and semiparametrically efficient under homoskedasticity.