Develops a new method for financial term structure modeling.
problem Analyzing financial term structures with discontinuities.
method Cylindrical stochastic integration approach.
result Establishes a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework.
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48 results for “financial term-structures”
New method for financial term-structure interpolation with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in building financial term-structures due to market information gaps.
method Generalized kriging models with linear and shape-preserving constraints.
result Efficient construction of term-structures and confidence intervals for various financial rates.
Unified framework models multiple financial and insurance term structures.
problem Modeling multiple term structures in various markets.
method Extended Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) approach under real-world probability.
result Characterization of local martingale deflators and existence of affine realizations.
Develops Bilateral Gamma processes for financial market modeling.
problem Modeling financial market fluctuations with Lévy processes.
method Exploration of bilateral Gamma distributions and their Lévy processes.
result Validates Bilateral Gamma processes on real financial data.
Study uncovers CDS anomalies leading to arbitrage profits.
problem Identifying arbitrage opportunities in CDS term structures.
method Derive No-arbitrage conditions for CDS term structures, analyze extensive dataset.
result Presented 2,416 pairs of anomalous CDS contracts.
Identifies smooth curves for financial models.
problem Consistent term structures with flexible diffusion.
method Analyzes manifolds of curves for Heath-Jarrow-Morton models.
result Term structures cannot be affine but must be linear-rational.
In this paper, we consider a discrete time economy where we assume that the short term interest rate follows a quadratic term structure of a regime switching asset process. The possible non-linear structure and the fact that the interest rate can have different economic or financial trends justify the interest of Regim…
Regularization approach for arbitrage-free HJM-type model selection in financial markets.
problem Learning the closest arbitrage-free HJM-type model to a prespecified factor-model.
method Asymptotic solution through a 1-parameter family of optimizers, with penalties to detect local martingale measures.
result A deep-learning approach to arbitrage-free affine term-structure modeling is formulated.
Modeling defaultable bonds with minimal assumptions.
problem Modeling term structures under default risk with minimal assumptions.
method Introducing an additional term in the forward rate approach to account for default at predictable times.
result Deriving necessary and sufficient conditions for a local martingale measure in credit risky bonds.
The article explores Gaussian processes and Bayesian optimization in financial applications.
problem Modeling financial markets and optimizing strategies.
method Gaussian processes and Bayesian optimization methods.
result Gaussian processes and Bayesian optimization are effective in financial modeling and strategy construction.
Extends credit risky bond market models to include jumps and general semimartingales.
problem Modeling credit risky bonds with jumps and general semimartingales under minimal assumptions.
method Extends Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to include jumps and generalizes recovery scheme.
result Derives generalized drift conditions for local martingale measures, ensuring no asymptotic free lunch.
Unified model for financial derivatives pricing with stochastic interest rates.
problem Pricing and hedging financial derivatives with stochastic interest rates.
method Volterra Stein-Stein model with correlated Gaussian Volterra processes.
result Explicit formulas for bond and cap/floor pricing, and characteristic function for log-forward index.
Study forecasts commodity options' implied volatility using Nelson-Siegel factors.
problem Predicting implied volatility in commodity markets.
method Rolling out-of-sample forecasting with Nelson-Siegel factors.
result Nelson-Siegel factors improve forecasting accuracy for energy and precious metals options.
Are multi-factor Gaussian term structure models still useful? An empirical analysis on Italian BTPsq-fin.PM
Study Italian sovereign bonds pricing using multi-factor models.
problem Empirical analysis of multi-factor models for Italian sovereign bonds.
method Calibration of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross and Vasicek models using Kalman filter and maximum likelihood estimation.
result Optimization algorithms improve term structure fitting over 12 years, including financial crises.
This article presents an empirical study of thirteen derivative markets for commodity and financial assets. It compares the statistical properties of futures contracts's daily returns at different maturities, from 1998 to 2010 and for delivery dates up to 120 months. The analysis of the fourth first moments of the dist…
Paper proves existence of Lévy term structure models.
problem Existence proof for Lévy term structure models.
method Proof of existence and uniqueness for Heath-Jarrow-Morton type equation.
result Full proof of existence and uniqueness of Lévy term structure models.
Paper proposes an alternative method to price American options using HJM approach.
problem Price American options efficiently and accurately.
method Utilizes HJM technique to model term structure of volatility for equity markets.
result Proposes a new value function, stopping criteria, and stopping time for American options.
Neural model improves option pricing by calibrating additive process term structure.
problem Calibrating additive process models for option pricing with time-dependent parameters.
method Proposes neural term structure model using feedforward neural networks to represent term structure.
result Improves option pricing accuracy with neural term structure model.
Revisits Jarrow & Turnbull model for credit and liquidity risk.
problem Modeling credit and liquidity risk in financial markets.
method Uses foreign exchange analogy and partially observable exchange rate.
result Derives tractable term structure models and explicit valuation formulae.
Investigates existence of affine models for Lévy-driven term structures.
problem Existence of affine realizations for term structure models with jumps.
method Analyzes term structure models driven by Lévy processes, focusing on restrictions on volatility.
result More severe restrictions on volatility compared to diffusion models.
Price Impact on Term Structureq-fin.TR
Theory of price impact on bond term structure.
problem Understanding price impact in interest rate markets.
method Formulated instantaneous and transient price impact on bonds with different maturities, connecting to no-arbitrage theory.
result Price impact can be embedded in the pricing measure and no-arbitrage preserved.
Divides state space into regions with identical term structure shapes.
problem Classifying term structure shapes in the two-factor Vasicek model.
method Using envelopes and winding numbers to divide and classify the state space.
result Nearly complete classification of parameter space regarding term structure shapes.
The paper models term structures under volatility uncertainty using G-Brownian motion.
problem Modeling term structures with volatility uncertainty.
method Modeling instantaneous forward rates as a diffusion process driven by G-Brownian motion.
result Derives a sufficient condition for the absence of arbitrage under volatility uncertainty.
The additive Bachelier model with an application to the oil option market in the Covid periodq-fin.MF
A new Bachelier model explains oil option volatility during the pandemic.
problem Describing and predicting the volatility surface of oil options during the pandemic.
method Additive Bachelier model with three parameters: volatility term structure, vol-of-vol, and skew.
result The model accurately describes the volatility surface and supports efficient pricing of exotic options.
Modelling the term-structure of default risk under IFRS 9 within a multistate regression frameworkq-fin.RM
Study improves loan default risk estimation using advanced regression models.
problem Modeling loan default risk over time is challenging and affects financial reserves.
method Comparative study of three multistate regression techniques: Markov chain, beta regression, and multinomial logistic regression.
result Each successive model outperforms the previous, indicating greater sophistication.
The paper proposes a new method to calibrate option pricing models that accurately match both volatility surfaces and variance term structures.
problem Calibrated models often produce inaccurate variance term structures relative to market observations.
method The paper introduces a joint calibration framework that augments the conventional objective function with a penalty term for variance term structure deviations, using a hyperparameter to balance volatility surface and variance term structure weights.
result The proposed method accurately fits observed option prices while delivering realistic term structures of variance.
The paper compares long forward probabilities to bond risk premiums, finding the latter predicts a different term structure.
problem The term structure of bond risk premiums is inconsistent with martingale assumptions.
method Analyzes the stochastic discount factor and long-term factorization.
result Long forward probabilities predict an upward sloping term structure, contradicting martingale assumptions.
We give a comprehensive review of credit term structure modeling methodologies. The conventional approach to modeling credit term structure is summarized and shown to be equivalent to a particular type of the reduced form credit risk model, the fractional recovery of market value approach. We argue that the corporate p…
The study explains why signature methods work in commodity futures term structure classification.
problem Lack of interpretability in signature methods for term structure classification.
method Introducing signature perturbations to explain the success of signature-based classification.
result The volatility of the convenience yield is the major discriminant for commodity markets classification.
Model shows how banks' fears of future defaults can cause immediate financial stress.
problem How banks' future default worries cause immediate financial stress.
method Dynamic interbank model with endogenous distress contagion, mark-to-market valuation adjustment, forward-backward approach.
result Distress contagion acts as a stochastic volatility term leading to clustering and down-market spikes.
Study analyzes bond price covariation robustly under no-arbitrage conditions.
problem Identifying the number of statistically relevant factors in the bond market.
method Nonparametric analysis of realized covariations in a general no-arbitrage setting.
result A high number of factors is needed to describe term structure evolution and term structure of volatility varies over time.
Study the Hull-White model with volatility uncertainty, finding an arbitrage-free term structure.
problem Finding an arbitrage-free term structure in the Hull-White model with volatility uncertainty.
method Representing volatility uncertainty with sublinear expectation and G-Brownian motion; adjusting the model to find an arbitrage-free term structure.
result The resulting term structure is affine with respect to the short rate and the adjustment factor, consistent with the traditional Hull-White model after fitting the yield curve.
A quantum field theory generalization, Baaquie, of the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (HJM) term structure model parsimoniously describes the evolution of imperfectly correlated forward rates. Field theory also offers powerful computational tools to compute path integrals which naturally arise from all forward rate models. …
Develops a statistical model for SOFR term structure in incomplete markets.
problem Incomplete liquidity and completeness in SOFR derivatives market.
method Statistical model incorporating macroeconomic factors and jumps in SOFR rates.
result Model is well-suited for risk management and derivatives pricing.
Interest-Rate Modelling in Collateralized Markets: Multiple curves, credit-liquidity effects, CCPsq-fin.PR
The market practice of extrapolating different term structures from different instruments lacks a rigorous justification in terms of cash flows structure and market observables. In this paper, we integrate our previous consistent theory for pricing under credit, collateral and funding risks into term structure modellin…
Modeling longevity bonds with a Vasicek model for better risk management.
problem Managing future uncertainty related to population longevity.
method Developed a state-space Vasicek model for zero-coupon longevity bonds.
result Unobserved instantaneous interest rate shows mean reverting behavior.
Anomalous diffusions in option prices: connecting trade duration and the volatility term structureq-fin.PR
Anomalous diffusions explain market behavior of implied volatility better than standard models.
problem Reconciling market behavior with standard financial models.
method Analyzed continuous-time random walks with power-law distributed innovation times.
result Anomalous diffusions provide a more consistent fit for implied volatility.
We derive caplet volatilities for quadratic models, providing an asymptotic approximation.
problem Calculating caplet volatilities for quadratic term-structure models.
method Asymptotic approximation for caplet volatilities under quadratic models.
result Asymptotic accuracy of the derived caplet volatilities.
ARBITER learns SPX-VIX term structures without arbitrage constraints.
problem Arbitrage-free modeling of SPX-VIX term structures.
method Risk-neutral neural operator mapping market states to operator outputs enforcing static arbitrage constraints.
result ARBITER outperforms other models in derivatives term structure evaluation metrics.
An alternative approach on the existence of affine realizations for HJM term structure modelsmath.PR
Proposes an alternative method for HJM models' existence.
problem Existence of affine realizations for HJM term structure models.
method Alternative approach applicable to various models, conceptually clear.
result Provides insights into term structure model geometry.
New model predicts credit spreads using stochastic CIR++ intensities.
problem Lack of continuous stochastic credit spread models and limited term structure models.
method Stochastic CIR++ model for default intensities in risk-neutral space.
result Model produces realistic credit spread term structure curves and consistent diffusion over time.
Develops a framework for modeling interest rate markets with jumps.
problem Stochastic discontinuities in interest rate markets.
method Extended HJM framework with stochastic discontinuities, affine semimartingales.
result Fundamental theorem of asset pricing based on NAFLVR.
New encoding improves volatility surface generation and risk management.
problem Generating accurate synthetic volatility surfaces from limited data.
method PCA variational auto-encoder model to encode surface descriptors into a latent space.
result Better scenario generation, volatility extrapolation, and direct stock surface inference.
Pricing extremely long-dated liabilities market consistently deals with the decline in liquidity of financial instruments on long maturities. The aim is to quantify the uncertainty of rates up to maturities of a century. We assume that the interest rates follow the affine mean-reverting Vasicek model. We model paramete…
The study classifies term structure shapes in the two-factor Vasicek model using total positivity.
problem Classifying all possible term structure shapes in the two-factor Vasicek model of interest rates.
method Total positivity theory pioneered by Samuel Karlin.
result Four additional shapes can be produced in certain parameter regimes.
Characterizes term structure models driven by Lévy processes.
problem Modeling non-negative short rates with Lévy processes.
method Analyzes affine term structure models driven by independent Lévy martingales.
result All possible solutions of the models can be obtained using stable processes.
Trading Signals In VIX Futuresq-fin.CP
Proposes a new VIX futures trading strategy based on term structure modeling.
problem Optimizing VIX futures trading based on term structure.
method Assumes VIX futures term structure follows a Markov model. Uses a deep neural network to model the functional dependence between VIX futures curve, positions, and expected utility.
result Backtests show reasonable portfolio performance and optimal long/short positions.
This study models Burundi's bond market yield curve using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models.
problem Modeling the yield curve of Burundian bond market for financial analytics.
method Collected treasury securities auction reports, computed zero-coupon rates, and applied Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models.
result Nelson-Siegel model is optimal for Burundian yield curve modeling.