Investigates chaotic financial time series with monthly contributions and devaluation.
problem Analyzing chaotic behavior in financial processes with piecewise contributions and negative interest rates.
method Examines a financial process with monthly contributions and devaluation, showing dichotomy in behavior.
result Financial time series exhibit either periodic sequences or Cantor set of ω-limit points, with chaotic behavior at points of a Cantor attractor.
Model financial time series with MOGP for imputation and prediction.
problem Impute missing financial data due to dependencies among multiple series.
method Use a multi-output Gaussian process (MOGP) with expressive covariance functions.
result The model outperforms other MOGPs and independent Gaussian process on real financial data.
FinTSBridge evaluates financial time series models for asset pricing.
problem Lack of effective evaluation methods for financial time series models.
method Developed FinTSBridge suite with new metrics and tasks.
result Showcased new metrics for financial time series models.
This paper studies concept drift detectors for financial time series.
problem Improving accuracy on financial time series with concept drifts.
method Three simple concept drift detectors tailored to financial time series.
result Two of the detectors are as effective as state-of-the-art detectors.
GANs can learn stylized facts of financial time series, but performance varies by architecture.
problem Capturing stylized facts of financial time series using GANs.
method Examination of GANs' ability to learn stylized facts of financial time series, focusing on univariate and multivariate data.
result GANs can capture stylized facts of financial time series, but performance varies by architecture.
We investigate the local fractal properties of the financial time series based on the evolution of the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) connected with the largest developing financial market in Europe. Calculating the local Hurst exponent for the WIG time series we find an interesting dependence between the behavior o…
An analysis of the stylized facts in financial time series is carried out. We find that, instead of the heavy tails in asset return distributions, the slow decay behaviour in autocorrelation functions of absolute returns is actually directly related to the degree of clustering of large fluctuations within the financial…
Delphyne improves financial time series models with pre-trained language models.
problem Lack of financial data and negative transfer effect in existing time-series pre-trained models.
method Delphyne is a pre-trained model for financial time series that addresses the lack of financial data and negative transfer effect.
result Delphyne achieves competitive performance and superior performances on various financial tasks.
Quantum model generates financial data with fewer parameters.
problem Generating financial data with fewer parameters.
method Applied time-series quantum generative model to financial data.
result Fewer parameters required compared to classical methods.
Fine-tuning a time series model improves financial price prediction accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting financial market prices using large models.
method Continual pre-training of a time series foundation model on financial data to fine-tune its performance for price prediction.
result The fine-tuned model outperforms the baseline in various financial metrics.
Generates financial time series with stylized facts using diffusion models.
problem Generating realistic synthetic financial time series with statistical properties like fat tails, volatility clustering, and seasonality.
method Utilizes denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) with wavelet transformation to convert and generate financial time series.
result Demonstrates that the proposed approach satisfies stylized financial time series properties.
Modeling financial time series with LSTM and trainable initial states.
problem Extracting patterns and information from financial time series.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network with trainable initial hidden states.
result Model captures relative similarity and predicts future stock trends.
FinZero improves financial time series forecasting accuracy with multimodal modeling.
problem Lack of interpretability, uncertainty, and scalability in financial time series forecasting.
method Developed a multimodal pre-trained model FinZero using UARPO method for reasoning, prediction, and uncertainty analysis.
result FinZero achieves an approximate 13.48% improvement in prediction accuracy over GPT-4o in high-confidence group.
The paper discovers and evaluates support and resistance levels in financial time series.
problem Understanding and predicting support and resistance levels in financial markets.
method Developed a heuristic discovery algorithm to identify SR levels in intraday price series.
result Discovered SR levels statistically significantly reverse price trends and have a decay aspect over time.
Prices of commodities or assets produce what is called time-series. Different kinds of financial time-series have been recorded and studied for decades. Nowadays, all transactions on a financial market are recorded, leading to a huge amount of data available, either for free in the Internet or commercially. Financial t…
Precise financial series predicting has long been a difficult problem because of unstableness and many noises within the series. Although Traditional time series models like ARIMA and GARCH have been researched and proved to be effective in predicting, their performances are still far from satisfying. Machine Learning,…
Persistence norms explain financial uncertainty better than volatility.
problem Capturing financial instability and predictability.
method Applied topological data analysis to financial markets.
result Persistence norms are significant in explaining financial uncertainty, while volatility is less effective.
Generative adversarial networks with attention improve financial time series simulation.
problem Limited real financial data for training and evaluation of trading strategies.
method Two generative adversarial networks (GANs) using convolutional networks with attention and transformers.
result Attention-based GANs better reproduce stylized facts and smooth returns autocorrelation.
MegazordNet combines stats and ML for better financial time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting financial time series is challenging due to its chaotic nature.
method MegazordNet integrates statistical features with a deep learning model.
result MegazordNet outperforms single statistical and machine learning methods in S&P 500 stock price prediction.
HHT feature generation enhances financial time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting nonstationary financial time series.
method CEEMD and HHT for decomposition, machine learning integration.
result HHT-enhanced models outperform traditional models in forecasting.
We present a comparative analysis of multifractal properties of financial time series built on stock indices from developing (WIG) and developed (S&P500) financial markets. It is shown how the multifractal image of the market is altered with the change of the length of time series and with the economic situation on the…
Paper uses agent-based simulation to identify investor types in financial markets.
problem Identifying investor types in real financial markets.
method Computational adaptation of PCA with agent-based simulation.
result A reduced set of investor models can approximate financial time series.
Paper presents a novel time series clustering algorithm for financial inclusion.
problem Difficulty in understanding consumer financial behavior without restrictive credit scoring.
method Developed a novel time series clustering algorithm.
result Allows institutions to offer unique financial products based on customer needs.
This research evaluates measures of dependence for financial time-series data.
problem Accurately preparing time series data and selecting an appropriate measure of dependence is challenging.
method Review and establishment of a comprehensive analysis framework for shaping time-series data and evaluating measures of dependence.
result A method, framework, and example for selecting and evaluating a suitable measure of dependence are presented.
Paper uses Time Series Transformer for bank stability prediction.
problem Predicting bank stability using complex financial data.
method Time Series Transformer model with self-attention mechanism.
result Time Series Transformer model outperforms other models in MSE and MAE.
FinCast is a foundation model for financial time-series forecasting that outperforms existing methods.
problem Challenges in financial time-series forecasting due to temporal non-stationarity, multi-domain diversity, and varying temporal resolutions.
method FinCast is a foundation model specifically designed for financial time-series forecasting, trained on large-scale financial datasets.
result FinCast exhibits robust zero-shot performance, effectively capturing diverse patterns without domain-specific fine-tuning.
Graph Neural Networks improve financial time series forecasting accuracy.
problem Forecasting univariate financial time series with statistical significance.
method Introducing the Time-Geometric model combining geometric and temporal patterns.
result Statistically significant improvements in forecasting accuracy through geometric patterns.
TS-K-means improves financial data clustering with dynamic time warping.
problem Inadequate handling of temporal dependencies in financial time series data.
method Integrates Dynamic Time Warping into Time Series K-means for financial data.
result TS-K-means outperforms traditional K-means in financial data analysis.
ReGEN-TAD detects anomalies in financial time series with interpretable models.
problem Detecting anomalies in complex financial time series with high-dimensional data.
method Integrates machine learning with econometric diagnostics in a refined convolutional--transformer architecture.
result Unified anomaly score without labeled data, robust to structured deviations.
A clustering procedure, based on the Hausdorff distance, is introduced and tested on the financial time series of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index.
New method uses nested optimal transport for financial time series evaluation.
problem Lack of consensus metric for evaluating generative models in finance.
method Nested optimal transport distance for time-causal tasks, with a parallelizable algorithm.
result Substantial speedups and robustness to financial tasks.
BiN normalizes financial time-series for better forecasting.
problem Non-stationarity and multimodality in financial time-series data.
method Bilinear Normalization (BiN) incorporated into TABL networks.
result BiN-TABL outperforms other normalization methods in financial forecasting.
TSFMs improve financial forecasting across diverse tasks with strong transferability.
problem Complex nonlinear relationships, temporal dependencies, and limited data in financial time series forecasting.
method Pretraining on diverse time series corpora followed by task-specific adaptation.
result Tiny Time Mixers (TTM) achieved 25-50% better performance on limited data and 15-30% improvements on longer datasets.
The authors seek financial datasets to benchmark feature engineering methods on US market data.
problem Improving predictive models for financial data science competitions.
method Feature engineering methods applied to multivariate time-series data from the US market.
result Predictive power of models tested against Numerai-Signals targets.
A method uses image processing and deep learning for financial market state prediction.
problem Low signal-to-noise ratio in financial time series data.
method Wavelet transform for denoising, convolutional neural network for pattern extraction.
result Competitive prediction accuracy of market states 'Up' and 'Down' on S&P 500 data.
Chronos models improve financial forecasting by integrating multivariate data.
problem Improving financial forecasting accuracy using multivariate data.
method Evaluation of Chronos-2 on multivariate and univariate financial forecasting models.
result Multivariate forecasts consistently outperform univariate forecasts, especially for interest rates.
Paper uses diffusion model to denoise financial time series data.
problem Low signal-to-noise ratio in financial time series data.
method Conditional diffusion model for progressive noise addition and removal.
result Denoised financial time series improve future return classification and trading performance.
Generative model uses random convolutional features to create financial time series.
problem Generating realistic financial time series with limited data and avoiding overfitting.
method Train generators by matching random convolutional features of real and generated time series, using SOCK (SOft Competing Kernels) feature map.
result Generators trained with random SOCK features outperform baselines across various financial datasets.
StockEmotions dataset for financial sentiment and emotion analysis.
problem Limited resources for financial sentiment analysis.
method Collects 10,000 English comments from StockTwits, categorizes emotions into 12 classes.
result DistilBERT outperforms other models in sentiment classification, and Temporal Attention LSTM model achieves best performance in multivariate time series forecasting.
TC-VAE generates robust financial time series data with causal constraints.
problem Generating realistic financial time series data with causal relationships.
method TC-VAE with causality constraint, RealNVP prior, and Wasserstein distance.
result TC-VAE loss controls discrepancy between market and generated distributions.
Unified framework for generating synthetic financial time series that accurately capture both marginal distributions and temporal dynamics.
problem Generating synthetic financial time series that reproduce both marginal distributions and temporal dynamics.
method SBBTS: A unified Schrödinger-Bass framework for synthetic financial time series.
result SBBTS accurately recovers stochastic volatility and correlation parameters that prior methods fail to capture.
Financial time series have been investigated to follow fat-tailed distributions. Further, an empirical probability distribution sometimes shows cut-off shapes on its tails. To describe this stylized fact, we incorporate the cut-off effect in superstatistics. Then we confirm that the presented stochastic model is capabl…
Generative model for financial time series using structured noise and signature learning.
problem Creating synthetic financial data to reflect real-world market dynamics.
method Structured noise, moving average model, signature transform, reinforcement learning.
result Model effectively captures key financial characteristics and outperforms existing methods.
A new contrastive learning method extracts asset embeddings from financial time series.
problem Extracting meaningful latent features from noisy financial data.
method Contrastive learning framework using hypothesis testing for positive and negative samples.
result Effective asset embeddings significantly outperform existing methods on financial tasks.
Study compares LSTM and Transformer models in financial time series prediction.
problem Comparing LSTM and Transformer models for financial time series prediction.
method Various LSTM-based and Transformer-based models compared on financial tasks; DLSTM and new Transformer architecture designed.
result Transformer-based models show limited advantage in absolute price sequence prediction, while LSTM-based models perform better on difference sequences.
Study shows TAR model captures leverage effect in financial series.
problem Capturing leverage effect in financial series.
method Threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with Bayesian approach.
result Analytical expressions for TAR model moments derived.
Financial time-series classification (FTC) is extremely valuable for investment management. In past decades, it draws a lot of attention from a wide extent of research areas, especially Artificial Intelligence (AI). Existing researches majorly focused on exploring the effects of the Multi-Scale (MS) property or the Tem…
In this work, we develop a novel framework to measure the similarity between dynamic financial networks, i.e., time-varying financial networks. Particularly, we explore whether the proposed similarity measure can be employed to understand the structural evolution of the financial networks with time. For a set of time-v…