Deep neural networks forecast financial return distributions accurately.
problem Forecasting probability distributions of financial returns.
method Used 1D CNN and LSTM architectures with custom loss functions to optimize distribution parameters.
result LSTM with skewed Student's t distribution outperformed classical models in multiple evaluation metrics.
A new method models financial returns by separating sign and magnitude, improving forecasting accuracy.
problem Capturing nonlinear predictability in financial return dynamics.
method Decomposes returns into sign and magnitude components, using a joint distribution model.
result Significantly outperforms traditional linear models in forecasting U.S. stock market returns.
A3T-GCN model forecasts FTSE100 stock prices using technical indicators and financial ratios.
problem Forecasting closing stock prices of FTSE100 constituents.
method Hybrid A3T-GCN architecture using technical indicators, financial ratios, and sector correlations.
result A3T-GCN model improves prediction accuracy with annualized log-returns and shorter sequence lengths.
Novel framework uses causality for financial forecasting.
problem Balancing invariance and prediction accuracy in financial time series.
method Causality-inspired models for forecasting asset returns.
result Efficacy in stable and accurate predictions, especially in turbulent markets.
Study forecasts cryptocurrency returns using LOB data and Hawkes model.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency returns due to their chaotic nature.
method Hawkes model applied to LOB data with COE model.
result Outperforms benchmarks in cryptocurrency return sign forecasting.
Network analysis improves stock return forecasting.
problem Improving stock return forecasting using network properties.
method Network analysis of stock return correlations, using individual and global properties of stocks.
result 50% improvement in R2 score for long-term stock returns forecasting, 3% for short-term.
Improved Hawkes model forecasts extreme financial returns more accurately.
problem Forecasting extreme tail events in financial log-returns.
method 2T-POT Hawkes model with multiple exceedance thresholds.
result 2T-POT Hawkes model outperforms GARCH-EVT model in risk forecasting.
The paper introduces a new method for forecasting financial risk using quantile-based modeling.
problem Forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for financial returns.
method Semiparametric approach using restricted quantile regression to model the conditional scale of financial returns.
result The method provides robust, distribution-free estimates of extreme losses and captures risk dynamics.
This paper fine-tunes LLMs for stock return prediction using financial news.
problem Improving stock return forecasting accuracy using LLMs.
method Fine-tuning LLMs with text and forecasting modules, comparing encoder-only and decoder-only models, and integrating token-level representations.
result LLMs' aggregated token-level embeddings enhance return predictions for long-only and long-short portfolios.
Pretrained time-series models outperform train-from-scratch baselines in financial return forecasting.
problem Financial return forecasting
method Pretrained time-series foundation models
result Pretrained TSFMs dominate the ranking distribution, accounting for 8 of 10 task-level wins.
HANET combines LSTM and attention mechanisms for better financial forecasting.
problem Lack of distinct macroeconomic regimes in financial datasets.
method Hierarchical Cross-Attention mechanism integrating long-run macro contexts with high-frequency market dynamics.
result HANET outperforms neural forecasters, especially during turbulent periods.
CSHT predicts financial returns from news using a novel transformer model on a sphere.
problem Financial forecasting from news and sentiment.
method Granger-causal hypergraph structure, Riemannian geometry, causally masked Transformer attention.
result CSHT outperforms baselines in return prediction, regime classification, and asset ranking.
In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to traditional approaches such as GARCH. We compare the forecasting power of three approac…
Online learning rbfnet improves multi-horizon returns forecasts for financial time series.
problem Nonstationarity and concept drift in financial time series.
method Combines feature representation transfer with sequential optimisation.
result Online learning rbfnet outperforms random-walk and batch learners.
The study compares differencing methods for financial data and finds fractional differencing improves model performance.
problem Improving financial time series forecasting models using appropriate data transformation techniques.
method Comparative analysis of traditional logarithmic returns and fractional differencing methods, including tempered extensions.
result Fractional differencing methods improve model forecasting performance and trading strategy effectiveness.
Diffolio uses a diffusion model for multivariate financial forecasting and portfolio construction.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate financial time-series with complex cross-sectional dependencies.
method Diffolio employs a denoising network with hierarchical attention architecture, incorporating asset-level and market-level layers and a correlation-guided regularizer.
result Diffolio outperforms various probabilistic forecasting baselines in multivariate forecasting accuracy and portfolio performance.
Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are predictable on the short term. Examining a range of different types of returns and th…
Enhanced financial forecasting using supervised autoencoders with noise augmentation and triple labeling.
problem Improving investment strategy performance on noisy financial data.
method Supervised autoencoders with noise augmentation and triple barrier labeling.
result Supervised autoencoders with balanced noise augmentation and bottleneck size significantly boost strategy effectiveness.
Enhanced financial forecasting with supervised autoencoders for S&P 500 and cryptocurrencies.
problem Improving investment strategy performance in financial markets.
method Supervised autoencoders with noise augmentation and triple barrier labeling.
result Supervised autoencoders with balanced parameters significantly boost strategy effectiveness.
ChatGPT predicts stock market reactions from news headlines without financial training.
problem Predicting stock price movements using non-financial data.
method Used post-knowledge-cutoff headlines to train ChatGPT-4, which forecasts stock market reactions.
result ChatGPT-4 can predict stock market reactions with high accuracy, especially for small stocks and negative news.
DBNs improve VaR forecasting compared to traditional models, but SVaR forecasts are conservative.
problem Forecasting VaR and SVaR using dynamic Bayesian networks.
method DBN framework applied to S&P 500 index returns, comparing to autoregressive models and historical simulation.
result DBNs achieve comparable VaR forecasting accuracy to historical simulation models, but SVaR forecasts remain conservative.
The study examines how posterior drift affects forecasting accuracy in overparametrized models, particularly in financial markets.
problem Impact of posterior drift on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy in overparametrized models.
method Investigation of posterior drift and its effect on model performance in financial markets.
result Overparametrized models can be sensitive to sub-periods and bandwidth parameters, leading to inconsistent returns.
Volatility forecasting and return prediction in high-frequency Chinese equity markets.
problem Improving statistical forecasting performance and economic strategy outcomes in equity markets.
method Developing a sequential two-stage framework combining realized volatility modeling and XGBoost return prediction.
result Regime-aware volatility forecasting outperforms baseline models.
Neural Lévy model improves risk and density forecasting for financial returns.
problem Financial returns exhibit heavy tails, volatility clustering, and jumps.
method Proposes a neural Lévy jump-diffusion framework that learns conditional drift, diffusion, jump intensity, and size distribution.
result Demonstrates improved calibration, sharper tail control, and risk reduction.
The realized GARCH framework is extended to incorporate the two-sided Weibull distribution, for the purpose of volatility and tail risk forecasting in a financial time series. Further, the realized range, as a competitor for realized variance or daily returns, is employed in the realized GARCH framework. Further, sub-s…
BOA improves financial forecasting by combining expert models.
problem Challenges in choosing between multiple machine learning models for financial forecasting.
method Online aggregation of expert models using Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA) procedure.
result BOA leads to better portfolio performance, higher Sharpe Ratio, and lower shortfall.
Paper proposes a joint quantile regression for VaR and ES forecasting.
problem Forecasting Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of multiple assets simultaneously.
method Multivariate quantile regression framework with time-varying process for VaR and ES.
result The proposed method outperforms other models in risk measure forecasts.
Study improves cryptocurrency price prediction using unlabeled text data.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency returns from unlabelled text data.
method Introduced weak learning approach to finetune BERT on unlabeled text data.
result Finetuning pretrained NLP models with weak labels enhances forecast accuracy.
Foundation models improve volatility forecasting in finance.
problem Improving volatility forecasting in financial markets.
method Evaluation of TimesFM model, incremental fine-tuning, comparison with econometric benchmarks.
result Incremental fine-tuning improves forecast accuracy and outperforms traditional models.
Optimizes forecast distributions for financial risk management.
problem Improving risk management through better forecast distributions.
method Optimizes forecast distributions using scoring rules relevant to financial risk management.
result Tail-focused predictive distributions yield better outcomes in hedging strategies involving VIX futures.
Quantum-enhanced method improves stock return prediction accuracy.
problem Improving precision of stock return forecasting.
method Quantum Gramian Angular Field (QGAF) combining quantum computing and CNNs.
result Significantly improved prediction accuracy (25% MAE, 48% MSE reduction).
Adaptive volatility method improves probabilistic financial forecasting.
problem Probabilistic forecasting in financial markets.
method Adapts classical time-varying volatility models with online stochastic optimization.
result Ranked 5th in M6 financial forecasting competition.
A new model forecasts Value-at-Risk using NIG distribution and dynamic scores.
problem Forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) in financial markets.
method Proposes a parametric forecasting model based on the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG) incorporating intraday information.
result The model outperforms traditional GARCH models, especially in high-risk scenarios.
Three adaptive methods improve financial forecasting and portfolio management.
problem Improving financial forecasting and portfolio management in volatile markets.
method Dynamic Model Selection (DMS), Adaptive Ensemble (AE), Dynamic Asset Allocation (DAA).
result Adaptive methods outperform long-only benchmarks in US market returns.
Bayesian model improves asset price forecasting using realized volatility.
problem Improving asset price forecasting accuracy.
method Integrates dynamic gamma process with DLMs for price and realized volatility.
result Significant improvements in asset price forecasting compared to standard models.
Machine learning models outperform traditional CAPM in forecasting financial asset prices.
problem Predicting and forecasting financial asset prices and returns.
method Comparison of modern Machine Learning algorithms with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) on U.S. equities data.
result Implemented Machine Learning models significantly outperform the CAPM on out-of-sample test data.
GP-LSTM model predicts stock returns and volatility more accurately.
problem Forecasting conditional returns and volatility in financial markets.
method Gaussian Process with LSTM kernel, hyper-parameter optimization.
result GP-LSTM model outperforms benchmarks in highly volatile periods.
Forecast future volatilities and correlations based on current trends.
problem Predict future volatilities and correlations in financial markets.
method Use cubic and quadratic polynomials of current trend strengths.
result Accurate quantification of trend effects on volatilities and correlations.
Long short-term memory network outperforms seasonal model in JSE Top 40 forecasting.
problem Comparing neural network performance to traditional models in financial forecasting.
method Used long short-term memory network for JSE Top 40 return data forecasting.
result Long short-term memory network outperforms seasonal model in forecasting.
This paper forecasts cryptocurrency log-returns using LASSO-VAR and sentiment analysis.
problem Forecasting log-returns of cryptocurrencies using social media sentiment.
method LASSO-VAR model combined with Twitter and Reddit sentiment data.
result The model predicts the correct direction of cryptocurrency returns more than 50% of the time.
The leverage effect refers to the well-established relationship between returns and volatility. When returns fall, volatility increases. We examine the role of the leverage effect with regards to generating density forecasts of equity returns using well-known observation and parameter-driven volatility models. These mo…
TSFMs improve financial forecasting from diverse datasets.
problem Challenges in forecasting financial time series due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data.
method Empirical study of TSFMs in global financial markets, evaluating zero-shot inference, fine-tuning, and pre-training from scratch.
result Pre-trained TSFMs on financial data achieve substantial forecasting and economic improvements, highlighting the value of domain-specific adaptation.
Transformer-based models overfit financial time series data, leading to increased prediction variance.
problem Forecast collapse of transformer-based models under squared loss in financial time series.
method Theoretical analysis and numerical experiments on high-frequency EUR/USD exchange rate data.
result Increased model expressivity in Transformer-based models leads to spurious fluctuations without reducing bias, resulting in higher prediction variance.
A new model captures financial asset returns' tail behaviors and outperforms GARCH family.
problem Capturing the dynamic tail behaviors of financial asset returns.
method Combines LSTM with a novel parametric quantile function.
result Out-of-sample forecasts of conditional quantiles or VaR outperform GARCH family.
This paper evaluates various loss functions for Transformer models in stock ranking.
problem Evaluating loss functions for Transformer models in stock ranking.
method Systematic evaluation of advanced loss functions (pointwise, pairwise, listwise) on S&P 500 data.
result Different loss functions impact a model's ability to discern profitable relative orderings among assets.
Dynamic models improve CoVaR forecasts for financial system risks.
problem Improving forecasts of systemic risk measures like CoVaR.
method Two-step M-estimator using bivariate scoring functions for VaR and CoVaR.
result CoCAViaR models generate superior CoVaR predictions.
Hybrid GARCH-GRU model improves volatility forecasting for financial assets.
problem Improving volatility and risk forecasting for financial assets.
method Combining GARCH models with GRU neural networks.
result Hybrid models produce more accurate volatility forecasts.
Model forecasts market structure from financial networks using machine learning.
problem Predicting market correlation structure from financial networks.
method Dynamic Asset Graph (DAG), Dynamic Minimal Spanning Tree (DMST), Dynamic Threshold Networks (DTN).
result Model improves market structure forecasting by up to 40% over benchmarks.