We describe dynamics of financial market observables and apply to portfolio performance.
problem Lack of mathematical description of financial market observables.
method Rank-based models and functionally generated portfolios.
result Performance of functionally generated portfolios studied over short and medium-term horizons.
A new method uses diffusion models to simulate financial markets accurately.
problem Generating realistic synthetic financial market data.
method Diffusion model approach with efficient numerical integration.
result Synthetic data closely matches observed market data in key aspects.
The ultimate value of theories of the fundamental mechanisms comprising the asset price in financial systems will be reflected in the capacity of such theories to understand these systems. Although the models that explain the various states of financial markets offer substantial evidences from the fields of finance, ma…
We present a simple model of a stock market where a random communication structure between agents gives rise to a heavy tails in the distribution of stock price variations in the form of an exponentially truncated power-law, similar to distributions observed in recent empirical studies of high frequency market data. Ou…
Study optimizes financial market disclosure by analyzing withheld information.
problem Optimizing financial market disclosure in partially observed, privately held firms.
method Analyzes geometric-Brownian state processes with Poisson observation times, derives filtering formulas for withheld information.
result Explicit formulas for downgrading valuations in the absence of disclosures.
Examines financial market patterns across 150 years and regions.
problem Evaluating stylized facts in financial markets.
method Testing 11 stylized facts across 150 years and multiple regions.
result Robustness and generalizability of stylized facts confirmed.
Consensual model explains spurious long-range memory in financial markets.
problem Understanding the origin of long-range memory in financial volatility.
method Non-linear stochastic differential equations.
result Empirical burst and inter-burst duration statistics can be explained by non-linear models.
Modeling financial markets as gas molecules, the paper predicts phase transitions similar to water and steam.
problem Understanding the dynamics of financial markets through phase transitions.
method Developed a lattice gas model equivalent to the Ising model on a social network, analyzing critical exponents and auto-correlations.
result Financial market dynamics exhibit phase transition-like behavior, with critical exponents analogous to water and steam.
A three-state model based on the Potts model is proposed to simulate financial markets. The three states are assigned to "buy", "sell" and "inactive" states. The model shows the main stylized facts observed in the financial market: fat-tailed distributions of returns and long time correlations in the absolute returns. …
New model simulates financial market price dynamics with realistic fat tails.
problem Simulate price evolution in financial markets with realistic features.
method Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) model on multilayer network of traders, considering order book dynamics.
result Fat tails in return distributions observed, matching real markets.
We discuss the statistical properties of index returns in a financial market just after a major market crash. The observed non-stationary behavior of index returns is characterized in terms of the exceedances over a given threshold. This characterization is analogous to the Omori law originally observed in geophysics. …
Study compares forecasting models for European financial markets and cryptocurrencies, finding hybrid ETS-ANN model best.
problem Challenges in predicting financial market fluctuations and cryptocurrency prices.
method Comparative analysis of ARIMA, hybrid ETS-ANN, and kNN models on European financial markets and cryptocurrency data.
result Hybrid ETS-ANN model performs best over extended periods, with moderate accuracy.
Model simulates financial time series with volatility clustering and cross correlations.
problem Simulate financial time series with volatility clustering and cross correlations.
method Introduced an Ising model with interactions between financial time series.
result Simulated financial time series exhibit volatility clustering and cross correlations.
PRIME models cryptocurrency exchange market impact.
problem Understanding and predicting market impact in cryptocurrency exchanges.
method Developed a multi-agent simulation to model market impact.
result Allows better estimation of market slippage and knock-on consequences.
Study causal financial signals for non-stationary markets, improving short-term forecasts.
problem Short-term forecasting in non-stationary financial markets under causal constraints.
method Construct causal signals from heterogeneous micro-features using causal centering, linear aggregation, Kalman filter, and forward-like operator.
result Causally constructed observables can exhibit substantial economic relevance in specific regimes but degrade under regime shifts.
Model financial markets with social media influences using hierarchical networks.
problem Understanding social media's impact on financial markets.
method Agent-based model with hierarchical influence network.
result Model accurately simulates real-world financial market behaviors.
Modeling financial markets with endogenous and exogenous noise.
problem Understanding long-range dependence and volatility in financial markets.
method Agent-based and stochastic modeling combining endogenous and exogenous noise.
result Exogenous noise is crucial for comprehensive financial market modeling.
MarS simulates financial markets using generative models.
problem Simulating realistic financial market effects.
method Order-level generative foundation model (LMM) for realistic, interactive, and controllable order generation.
result Strong scalability and robust realism in MarS.
A new approach to the understanding of complex behavior of financial markets index using tools from thermodynamics and statistical physics is developed. Physical complexity, a magnitude rooted in Kolmogorov-Chaitin theory is applied to binary sequences built up from real time series of financial markets indexes. The st…
A new approach to the understanding of the complex behavior of financial markets index using tools from thermodynamics and statistical physics is developed. Physical complexity, a magnitude rooted in the Kolmogorov-Chaitin theory is applied to binary sequences built up from real time series of financial markets indices…
Generative model creates realistic financial paths.
problem Training deep learning models on financial data with limited observations and high dimensionality.
method Proposes a generative model for financial time series.
result Generative model creates realistic financial paths.
We investigate whether fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and invest- ment horizons give reasonable predictions about dynamics of the financial markets during the turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, fractal markets hy…
Paper develops framework for AI agents in financial markets.
problem Systemic implications of AI in finance depend on agent architectures.
method Four-layer architecture and AFMM model for analysis.
result AI agents can improve market efficiency and resilience.
Model predicts risk-adjusted returns across various financial markets.
problem Stationary models fail in predicting risk-adjusted returns due to market regime changes.
method Asset-independent regime-switching model using hidden Markov models.
result Accurately detects bull, bear, and high volatility periods for improved risk-adjusted returns.
The financial market and turbulence have been broadly compared on account of the same quantitative methods and several common stylized facts they shared. In this paper, the She-Leveque (SL) hierarchy, proposed to explain the anomalous scaling exponents deviated from Kolmogorov monofractal scaling of the velocity fluctu…
Study examines stock market connections before, during, and after the 2008 financial crisis.
problem Effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on stock market connectivity.
method Generated complex networks from cross-correlation matrices, using threshold networks and minimal spanning trees.
result During the crisis, countries in different zones had varying levels of connectivity.
Forecast future volatilities and correlations based on current trends.
problem Predict future volatilities and correlations in financial markets.
method Use cubic and quadratic polynomials of current trend strengths.
result Accurate quantification of trend effects on volatilities and correlations.
Improved ABFMs capture market complexities, aiding policy decisions.
problem Limited usefulness of current ABFMs due to missing microstructure and agent behaviors.
method Developed ABMMS with realistic market structure, communication, and auction mechanisms; populated with adaptive agents.
result Generated data from ABMMS more accurately reflects real market phenomena.
Deep learning mimics successful traders in financial markets.
problem Tackling profitable trading behavior in financial markets.
method Using deep learning neural networks to replicate adaptive trading behavior.
result Deep learning can outperform human traders and even improve performance.
Model financial time series with MOGP for imputation and prediction.
problem Impute missing financial data due to dependencies among multiple series.
method Use a multi-output Gaussian process (MOGP) with expressive covariance functions.
result The model outperforms other MOGPs and independent Gaussian process on real financial data.
FinSMART uses reinforcement learning to analyze financial sentiment, outperforming existing methods.
problem Limited adaptability of financial sentiment analysis to evolving market conditions.
method Market-aligned reinforcement learning framework that optimizes sentiment signals using realized market outcomes.
result Significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in profitability and sentiment signal quality.
Multifractal analysis reveals complex patterns in financial markets.
problem Understanding the complex nonlinear nature of financial time series.
method Multifractal analysis methods and models applied to financial markets.
result Multifractality is ubiquitously observed in financial markets.
New method identifies uncertainty shocks in financial markets using revised VIX.
problem Traditional VIX fails to capture non-Gaussian, heavy-tailed asset returns.
method Fit a double-subordinated Normal Inverse Gaussian Levy process to S&P 500 option prices to construct a revised VIX.
result Revised VIX provides a more comprehensive measure of volatility reflecting extreme movements and heavy tails.
In this paper we study the price dynamics in a simple model of financial markets with heterogeneous agents. We concentrate on how increases in the total number of active traders influences fluctuations of asset prices. We find that a curious route to chaos is observed when the total number of [active traders] increases…
Machine learning improves financial stress testing in Indian markets.
problem Conventional stress testing limitations in Indian financial markets.
method Dimensionality reduction, latent factor modeling, Variational Autoencoders, Monte Carlo simulation.
result Improved flexibility, robustness, and realism in financial stress testing.
Estimates financial market impacts of COVID-19 using time-varying kernel density.
problem Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets over time.
method Time-varying kernel density estimation with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.
result Determines the chronology and regional disparities of financial market impacts.
Explains financial market simulation mechanisms and agent behaviors.
problem Necessity of including fundamental value in multiagent financial market simulations.
method Discusses three methods for generating fundamental value and illustrates one Bayesian agent's estimation process.
result Presentation of two widely examined agents: Zero Intelligence and Heuristic Belief Learning.
CLVSA predicts financial market trends using LSTM and attention mechanisms.
problem Predicting trends in financial markets due to complex interactions.
method Hybrid model combining LSTM, sequence-to-sequence, attention, and convolutional LSTM.
result CLVSA outperforms basic models in predicting financial market trends.
Modern physics has demonstrated that matter behaves very differently as it approaches the speed of light. This paper explores the implications of modern physics to the operation and regulation of financial markets. Information cannot move faster than the speed of light. The geographic separation of market centers means…
Modeling high-frequency traders' behavior in financial markets using microscopic dynamics.
problem Capturing the collective motion of high-frequency traders in financial markets.
method Developed a microscopic model based on direct observation of HFTs' trajectories and derived Boltzmann-like and Langevin-like equations.
result First microscopic model validated through data analysis, exhibiting quantitative agreements with empirical results.
The financial market is nonpredictable, as according to the Bachelier, the mathematical expectation of the speculator is zero. Nevertheless, we observe in the price fluctuations the two distinct scales, short and long time. Behaviour of a market in long terms, such as year intervals, is different from that in short ter…
Study models opaque financial markets using multi-agent simulation.
problem Challenges in financial markets with obscured data availability.
method Multi-agent simulation with small-scale meta-heuristic methods.
result Captures bilateral market dynamics of OTC trading.
Study market efficiency under partial information using SDEs and optimization.
problem Market efficiency under partial information constraints.
method McKean-Vlasov-type SDEs, Wasserstein barycenters, KL divergence, convex optimization, optimal control, nonlinear filtering.
result Convergence of reduced-information market price processes to true price process under increasing information flow.
Lab experiment reveals market imitation and win-stay lose-shift patterns in financial decision-making.
problem Understanding how people make decisions in financial markets.
method Lab-in-the-field experiment with financial information, statistical analysis, and cohort analysis.
result Market imitation and win-stay lose-shift strategies emerge as dominant behaviors in financial decision-making.
Analyzes how order flow affects price formation in financial markets.
problem Understanding how prices are formed by order flow in financial markets.
method Critical discussion of modeling approaches and empirical observations, focusing on market impact and transaction costs.
result Algorithmic trading impacts the quality and cost of trading.
Study uses topological signatures to quantify financial market complexity.
problem Capturing temporal organization beyond volatility measures.
method Null validated topological approach using L1 norm of persistence landscapes. result Persistence landscape norms reveal dynamical structure during market stress.
The paper introduces a new volatility model for state heterogeneous financial markets using high-frequency data.
problem State heterogeneity in financial volatility processes.
method Developed a state heterogeneous GARCH-Ito (SG-Ito) model based on continuous Ito diffusion process.
result Empirical studies reveal various state heterogeneities in S&P 500 index volatility.
New financial dataset and model detect claims affecting market returns.
problem Detecting analyst claims' impact on financial markets.
method Constructed new dataset, used weak-supervision model with SME knowledge.
result Outperformed existing models in claim detection and market analysis.