The paper uses machine learning to simulate financial markets and improve trading strategy backtesting.
problem Improving risk management of quantitative investment strategies.
method Simulates financial markets using Boltzmann Machines and Generative Adversarial Networks to preserve asset return distributions and dependencies.
result Developed a framework to estimate backtest statistics more accurately.
A new method for backtesting ES forecasts in banking.
problem Designing a model-free backtesting procedure for Expected Shortfall forecasts.
method Use e-values and e-processes to introduce backtest e-statistics for VaR and ES.
result The proposed method can be applied to various risk measures and statistical quantities.
The paper examines sizing strategies for algorithmic trading in volatile markets.
problem High volatility creates challenges for algorithmic traders.
method Investigates different sizing models and backtesting techniques for financial trading.
result Sizing models can lower Value at Risk (VaR) during crisis events.
Benchmark detects decision-time leakage in financial backtests.
problem Detecting decision-time leakage in financial machine-learning backtests.
method Toggles one evaluation convention at a time around a clean t+1-open reference, holding other factors fixed. result Inflation is highly selective, affecting specific features and execution methods.
Conditional forecasts of risk measures play an important role in internal risk management of financial institutions as well as in regulatory capital calculations. In order to assess forecasting performance of a risk measurement procedure, risk measure forecasts are compared to the realized financial losses over a perio…
The paper optimizes portfolios using clustering and Sharpe ratio-based optimization.
problem Optimizing portfolio performance in financial modeling.
method Combines K-Means clustering for asset segmentation and Sharpe ratio-based optimization.
result Optimized portfolios outperform traditional equal-weighted benchmarks.
SFAG generates realistic financial data that passes trading tests.
problem Financial generative models often produce unrealistic and unstable trading outcomes.
method Introduces SFAG, a GAN variant that aligns stylized facts and optimizes with adversarial loss.
result SFAG generates synthetic data that preserves stylized facts and supports robust trading strategies.
Survey examines LLMs in financial trading.
problem Using LLMs to outperform professional traders in finance.
method Comprehensive review of current research on LLMs in financial trading.
result LLMs can potentially outperform professional traders in backtesting.
This paper investigates bias in resampled backtests for financial portfolios, finding it often negligible.
problem Bias in resampled backtests for financial portfolio evaluation.
method Investigation of bias in rolling-window mean-variance portfolios using resampling techniques.
result The bias in Sharpe Ratio estimates from IID resampling is often a fraction of estimation noise, making it tolerable.
CNN model predicts financial market movement with better performance.
problem Difficult to predict financial markets due to complex dynamics.
method Proposes a novel one-dimensional CNN model for financial market prediction.
result CNN model achieves more robust and profitable performance than previous approaches.
LLMs struggle to outperform markets over long periods and diverse stocks.
problem Overstated effectiveness of LLM-based investing strategies due to biases.
method FINSABER framework for systematic backtests over two decades and 100+ symbols.
result Previously reported LLM advantages deteriorate significantly under broader evaluation.
This paper evaluates LLMs for technical market analysis, finding GPT-4 Turbo and FinGPT outperform passive benchmarks.
problem Evaluating LLMs for technical market analysis in financial markets.
method Structured evaluation of five LLMs (GPT-4 Turbo, Claude 3 Opus, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Llama 3 70B, FinGPT) on four tasks: candlestick pattern recognition, directional signal generation, backtesting, and financial report comprehension.
result GPT-4 Turbo and FinGPT outperform passive benchmarks in simulated backtesting, with GPT-4 Turbo achieving the highest annualized return and Sharpe ratio.
L2GMOM learns financial networks and optimizes momentum strategies.
problem Expensive databases and financial expertise limit network construction accessibility.
method End-to-end machine learning framework (L2GMOM) that learns networks and optimizes trading signals.
result Significant improvement in portfolio profitability and risk control with Sharpe ratio of 1.74.
We check the claims that data from Google Trends contain enough data to predict future financial index returns. We first discuss the many subtle (and less subtle) biases that may affect the backtest of a trading strategy, particularly when based on such data. Expectedly, the choice of keywords is crucial: by using an i…
Anonymizing company names in financial news improves trading performance, contrary to initial expectations.
problem Look-ahead and distraction biases in sentiment analysis of financial news.
method Investigated trading strategies based on original and anonymized headlines, comparing performance.
result Anonymized headlines outperform original in-sample, suggesting distraction effect is stronger.
Backtesting framework for CLMMs on Uniswap V3 reduces reward estimation error.
problem Estimating rewards for CLMMs in Uniswap V3 liquidity pools.
method Parametric model for liquidity distribution, historical data analysis.
result Error in reward estimation less than 1% for each pool.
AlphaEval evaluates alpha mining models efficiently and comprehensively.
problem Lack of systematic evaluation for alpha mining models.
method Unified, parallelizable evaluation framework assessing predictive power, stability, robustness, financial logic, and diversity.
result AlphaEval achieves evaluation consistency comparable to comprehensive backtesting, providing more comprehensive insights and higher efficiency.
This paper defines systematic value investing as an empirical optimization problem. Predictive modeling is introduced as a systematic value investing methodology with dynamic and optimization features. A predictive modeling process is demonstrated using financial metrics from Gray & Carlisle and Buffett & Clark. A 31-y…
Systematic trading strategies are rule-based procedures which choose portfolios and allocate assets. In order to attain certain desired return profiles, quantitative strategists must determine a large array of trading parameters. Backtesting, the attempt to identify the appropriate parameters using historical data avai…
The study uses machine learning to predict financial market trends.
problem Predicting financial market trends using low-frequency data.
method Modular online machine learning framework using stacked autoencoders and neural networks.
result The approach can predict financial market feature fluctuations effectively.
The study evaluates financial risk using copulas and statistical tests.
problem Validating bivariate forecasts in risk evaluation.
method Using copulas to characterize dependencies, applying statistical tests to validate forecasts, removing heteroskedasticity.
result A Student copula accurately describes financial time series dependencies.
The paper estimates CoVaR with various models for financial risk analysis.
problem Estimating conditional value-at-risk with financial time series data.
method Fitting multivariate parametric models and copula functions to capture stylized facts of equity returns.
result Backtesting shows that certain models provide better risk estimates than others.
Generative diffusion models improve financial LOB simulation and forecasting.
problem High noise and complexity in financial LOB data makes deep generative models ineffective.
method Convert LOB data to images, apply diffusion models with inpainting for long-term sequence generation.
result Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on LOB-Bench, improving coherence over local details.
Generative Adversarial Networks simulate realistic market interactions.
problem Lack of agent-level historical data limits market simulation realism.
method Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGANs) trained on real data.
result CGAN-based synthetic market generator outperforms previous methods in market responsiveness and realism.
The book chapter discusses tail risk analysis for financial data using extreme value statistics.
problem Serial dependence in financial time series complicates tail risk assessment.
method The approach involves unconditional and conditional quantile forecasting.
result Serial dependence impacts multivariate tail dependence.
We present a computational method for measuring financial risk by estimating the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from financial series. We have made two assumptions: First, that the predictive distributions of the values of an asset are conditioned by information on the way in which the variable evolves from simil…
We examine the efficiency of the Asymmetric Power ARCH (APARCH) model in the case where the residuals follow the standardized Pearson type IV distribution. The model is tested with a variety of loss functions and the efficiency is examined via application of several statistical tests and risk measures. The results indi…
AlphaX uses AI to outperform Brazilian stock market benchmarks.
problem AI strategies often overperform in backtests but underperform in real markets due to lookahead bias.
method Controlled simulations to mitigate lookahead bias, using Value Investing principles.
result AlphaX strategy outperforms major benchmarks and technical indicators.
Paper introduces a trading agent using LLMs for risk assessment and trading recommendations.
problem Developing a trading agent that can handle financial risks effectively.
method Extending CPPO algorithm with LLM-generated risk assessment and trading signals from financial news.
result Backtesting shows improved performance of the trading agent compared to benchmarks.
Audit financial machine learning workflows to detect spurious predictability.
problem Spurious predictability in financial machine learning models.
method Falsification audit testing predictive workflows against synthetic environments.
result Many apparent financial predictions are artifacts, not genuine.
Factor Engine simplifies financial factor computation and analysis in Python.
problem Efficient computation and analysis of financial factors.
method Modular, extensible Python library with decorators, integrates with data science ecosystem.
result Mispricing factors computed by Factor Engine and Stata implementation are highly similar.
The SV-GARCH-EVT model improves risk assessment in financial markets.
problem Inaccurate risk assessment in financial markets due to fat-tailed and leverage effects.
method Enhanced SV model with EVT for tail distribution, MCMC for parameter estimation.
result SV-EVT models outperform other models in backtesting and out-of-sample analysis.
New risk measures assess cryptocurrency market vulnerabilities during financial distress.
problem Capturing systemic risk in cryptocurrency markets during financial distress.
method Introducing Vulnerability Conditional Risk Measures (VCoES) and related measures.
result Validated theoretical insights and demonstrated practical relevance in cryptocurrency market.
Survey of determinism issues in financial AI systems.
problem Vulnerabilities in reproducibility of financial AI systems.
method Literature review and first-party experiments on public financial datasets.
result Proposed a layered evaluation framework linking modality-specific metrics to audit readiness.
GAS models have been recently proposed in time-series econometrics as valuable tools for signal extraction and prediction. This paper details how financial risk managers can use GAS models for Value-at-Risk (VaR) prediction using the novel GAS package for R. Details and code snippets for prediction, comparison and back…
New method tests risk measures for various distortions.
problem Testing risk measures for different distortions.
method Stratification and randomization of risk levels.
result Method performs well in numerical case studies.
Proposes TNCM-VAE for generating causal financial time series.
problem Lack of causal reasoning in market generators.
method Combines VAE with structural causal models, enforcing causal constraints through DAGs and using causal Wasserstein distance.
result Superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation, L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10.
Under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) capital charges for the trading book are based on the coherent expected shortfall (ES) risk measure, which show greater sensitivity to tail risk. In this paper it is argued that backtesting of expected shortfall - or the trading book model from which it is calcula…
New framework models stock relationships and investor expectations for better financial market predictions.
problem Limited by predefined stock relationships and immediate effects, current financial market analysis methods need improvement.
method Jointly models investor expectations and automatically mines latent stock relationships.
result Annual return exceeds 10%, surpassing existing benchmarks.
This paper explores the dependence modeling of financial assets in a dynamic way and its critical role in measuring risk. Two new methods, called Accelerated Moving Window method and Bottom-up method are proposed to detect the change of copula. The performance of these two methods together with Binary Segmentation \cit…
New methods for scoring function decomposition improve forecast evaluation.
problem Improving forecast evaluation and understanding forecast components.
method Linear recalibration of forecasts for miscalibration, discrimination, and uncertainty.
result Enhanced statistical power and deeper insights into forecast components.
GARCH-UGH improves VaR estimation for financial risk management.
problem Dynamic estimation of extreme VaR in financial time series.
method AR-GARCH filtering followed by a bias-reduced extreme value estimator.
result GARCH-UGH estimates are more accurate than conventional methods.
Financial LLMs need explicit bias consideration to avoid invalid results.
problem Finance-specific biases inflate performance and contaminate backtests.
method Identified five recurring biases and proposed a Structural Validity Framework.
result Explicit bias consideration is necessary for valid deployment claims.
This paper introduces novel backtests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) following the testing idea of Mincer and Zarnowitz (1969). Estimating a regression framework for the ES stand-alone is infeasible, and thus, our tests are based on a joint regression for the Value at Risk and the ES, which allows for dif…
Dual-CLVSA predicts financial markets using both trading data and sentiment measurements.
problem Predicting financial markets with complex interactions and emotional influences.
method Hybrid convolutional LSTM-based variational sequence-to-sequence model with attention.
result Dual-CLVSA effectively fuses trading data and sentiment measurements, improving prediction performance.
We study a class of backtests for forecast distributions in which the test statistic depends on a spectral transformation that weights exceedance events by a function of the modeled probability level. The weighting scheme is specified by a kernel measure which makes explicit the user's priorities for model performance.…
In recent years several trading platforms appeared which provide a backtest engine to calculate historic performance of self designed trading strategies on underlying candle data. The construction of a correct working backtest engine is, however, a subtle task as shown by Maier-Paape and Platen (cf. arXiv:1412.5558 [q-…
CLVSA predicts financial market trends using LSTM and attention mechanisms.
problem Predicting trends in financial markets due to complex interactions.
method Hybrid model combining LSTM, sequence-to-sequence, attention, and convolutional LSTM.
result CLVSA outperforms basic models in predicting financial market trends.