Paper proposes embedding models to capture semantic similarities of categorical attributes in financial bonds.
problem Challenges in finding similar bonds due to overshadowing of categorical non-financial attributes.
method Embedding models to capture semantic similarities of categorical attributes.
result Improves risk modeling and curve construction via sparse-issuer augmentation.
New method for interpreting financial model risks.
problem Fairly allocating risk in financial models.
method Extending Shapley value framework for axiomatic risk attribution.
result Risk can be well allocated in financial models.
This paper analyzes text in financial disclosures to improve financial analysis.
problem Insufficient analysis of unstructured text in financial disclosures.
method Reviews and explores methods in computational linguistics and NLP.
result Highlights limitations of sentiment metrics and suggests future research areas.
RESHAPE explains financial statement anomalies by aggregating explanations from AENNs.
problem Detecting and explaining accounting anomalies in financial audits is challenging.
method Proposes RESHAPE to explain model output on an aggregated attribute-level.
result RESHAPE provides more comprehensible explanations compared to existing methods.
TimeTrail detects financial fraud patterns through temporal correlation analysis.
problem Detecting and explaining complex financial fraud patterns.
method Temporal data enrichment, dynamic correlation analysis, interpretable pattern visualization.
result TimeTrail outperforms conventional methods in accuracy and interpretability.
Proposes a comprehensive framework for financial product lead recommendations using graph representation learning and link prediction.
problem Challenges in surface lead recommendations for financial products due to changing market scenarios and difficulty in capturing holder's mindset.
method Bi-partite graph representation of financial holders and funds, GraphSage model for learning representations, link prediction model for ranking recommendations.
result The proposed graph ML solution outperforms baseline by 42%, 22%, and 14% in hit rate for top-k recommendations (50, 100, 200) and 18%, 19%, and 18% on unseen holders.
Framework learns dynamic graph attributes and links co-evolution.
problem Forecasting change of node attributes and link formation in dynamic graphs.
method CoEvoGNN framework with temporal self-attention and joint optimization.
result Framework outperforms baselines on predicting unseen graph snapshots.
New risk measures for financial and ESG risks using utility functions.
problem Assessing financial and ESG risks using traditional risk measures.
method Developed new risk measures based on utility functions.
result Properties of utility functions translate into properties of risk measures.
LSTM networks improve stock price prediction accuracy.
problem Enhancing stock price forecasting accuracy.
method LSTM networks with hyperparameter tuning and feature selection.
result 53% improvement in predictive accuracy.
Model predicts default risk based on company's financial forecasts and credit conditions.
problem Estimating the risk of a company defaulting on its financial obligations.
method Developed an equilibrium model linking interest rates to corporate performance and credit supply.
result Estimates idiosyncratic default risk and provides forward-looking probability of default (PD).
Attributing forecast gaps to component models in complex model suites
problem Attributing forecast gaps between model-suite forecasts and realized outcomes
method Formalizing walk analysis and adapting order-independent attribution frameworks
result Deriving efficient formulas for elementwise and vectorized gap attribution
The paper tackles attributing forecast gaps in complex model suites.
problem Attributing forecast gaps to individual component models in complex model suites.
method Formalized walk analysis, adapted LMDI and Shapley value approaches.
result Developed efficient formulas for gap attribution in practical portfolio-scale examples.
Anomaly detection aims to distinguish observations that are rare and different from the majority. While most existing algorithms assume that instances are i.i.d., in many practical scenarios, links describing instance-to-instance dependencies and interactions are available. Such systems are called attributed networks. …
Study proposes a data-driven CBR system for improved bankruptcy prediction.
problem Lack of interpretability in machine learning models for bankruptcy prediction.
method Data-driven explainable case-based reasoning (CBR) system.
result Proposed CBR system outperforms existing CBR and machine learning models.
ReGEN-TAD detects anomalies in financial time series with interpretable models.
problem Detecting anomalies in complex financial time series with high-dimensional data.
method Integrates machine learning with econometric diagnostics in a refined convolutional--transformer architecture.
result Unified anomaly score without labeled data, robust to structured deviations.
Graph Prototypical Networks improve few-shot node classification on attributed networks.
problem Few-shot node classification in attributed networks with limited labeled instances.
method Graph Prototypical Networks (GPN) using meta-learning to extract meta-knowledge and identify informative labeled instances.
result GPN achieves superior performance in few-shot node classification.
Shapley values explain financial language models, aligning with domain knowledge.
problem Lack of explainability in financial applications of large language models.
method Shapley value analysis for financial textual data.
result Shapley values provide consistent explanations with financial reasoning.
Study uses synthetic data to estimate credit risk for underbanked consumers in Istanbul.
problem Estimating credit risk for underbanked consumers lacking formal credit records.
method Created synthetic dataset, used retrieval augmented generation, trained CatBoost, LightGBM, and XGBoost models.
result Alternative financial data improves credit risk estimation, raising AUC by 13%.
Graphs are widely adopted for modeling complex systems, including financial, biological, and social networks. Nodes in networks usually entail attributes, such as the age or gender of users in a social network. However, real-world networks can have very large size, and nodal attributes can be unavailable to a number of…
AI enhances financial services but humans are irreplaceable for empathy, presence, and ethics.
problem AI's limitations in financial services, especially with small datasets and human judgment.
method EPOCH framework highlighting five irreplaceable human capabilities: Empathy, Presence, Opinion, Creativity, and Hope.
result Humans are essential for trust, innovation, and consumer experience in financial services.
AI agent improves performance attribution analysis with high accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in performance attribution analysis.
method Leveraging large language models and advanced prompt engineering techniques.
result Achieves accuracy rates exceeding 93% in analyzing performance drivers.
FinDiff generates synthetic financial data for regulatory tasks.
problem Sharing microdata for research due to privacy regulations.
method Diffusion model using embedding encodings for mixed modality financial data.
result FinDiff excels in generating high-fidelity, privacy-preserving synthetic financial data.
Algorithm optimizes a single attribute in multi-armed bandits with constraints.
problem Optimizing a single attribute under multiple constraints in multi-armed bandits.
method Successive Rejects framework, information theoretic lower bound.
result Upper bound on probability of error decays exponentially with budget, nearly optimal in certain cases.
Framework quantifies financial NLP robustness under regime shifts.
problem Semantic and causal drift in financial news narratives.
method Four metrics: FCAS, PCS, TSV, NLICS.
result Transformer models are more affected by semantic drift.
We study a dynamical Ising model of agents' opinions (buy or sell) with coupling coefficients reassessed continuously in time according to how past external news (magnetic field) have explained realized market returns. By combining herding, the impact of external news and private information, we test within the same mo…
Benchmark evaluates LLM trading agents by masking identifiers to prevent memory leaks.
problem Evaluate LLM trading agents without relying on market memory or noise.
method Data-side masking protocol, Barra-style performance attribution framework.
result LLM agents' returns are largely explained by market and style exposure, not stock selection.
Regshock visualizes financial risks to help regulators manage systemic shocks.
problem Managing systemic risks in financial networks.
method Risk-island visualization algorithm and regshock visual exploration approach.
result Demonstrated improved risk management and control capabilities.
The study examines how board diversity and CSR committee composition affect corporate governance and financial performance.
problem The relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and corporate governance.
method Theoretical model development based on management and corporate governance theories, focusing on board diversity and CSR committee composition.
result Cognitive and demographic characteristics of board members provide more insights into the link between corporate governance and CSR.
GG-SAGE predicts links in directed graphs with attributes, outperforming existing methods.
problem Predicting links in directed graphs with node attributes.
method Gravity-GraphSAGE, a modified GraphSAGE model with a gravity-inspired decoder.
result GG-SAGE outperforms state-of-the-art GDL link prediction techniques.
In general, anomaly detection is the problem of distinguishing between normal data samples with well defined patterns or signatures and those that do not conform to the expected profiles. Financial transactions, customer reviews, social media posts are all characterized by relational information. In these networks, fra…
Financial networks have become extremely useful in characterizing the structure of complex financial systems. Meanwhile, the time evolution property of the stock markets can be described by temporal networks. We utilize the temporal network framework to characterize the time-evolving correlation-based networks of stock…
New framework analyzes pre-stock jump trading behaviors using multivariate time series analysis.
problem Understanding micro-trading behaviors before stock price jumps.
method Multivariate time series analysis considering temporal information.
result Identifies highly informative attributes for predicting price jumps.
News attention to financial intermediaries and crises predicts excess bond premium and macroeconomic movements.
problem Drivers of the excess bond premium (EBP).
method News attention to 180 topics captures up to 80% of EBP variation and forecasts macroeconomic movements.
result News attention to financial intermediaries and crises drives up the EBP and predicts macroeconomic downturns.
Study shows group structures are crucial for financial model explanations.
problem Inconsistent explanations from existing explainable machine learning methods.
method Examined group structures in financial datasets and developed group versions of Shapley values.
result Group versions of Shapley values provide consistent explanations.
Algorithm minimizes regret in multi-criteria bandits with constraints.
problem Optimize primary attribute while respecting secondary constraints.
method Con-LCB algorithm that guarantees logarithmic regret and feasibility identification.
result Logarithmic regret and feasibility identification with high probability.
FinAI-BERT classifies AI disclosures in financial reports with high accuracy.
problem Systematic detection of AI-related disclosures in financial reports.
method Fine-tuned transformer-based model on a curated dataset.
result Achieved near-perfect classification performance (99.37% accuracy).
CSHT predicts financial returns from news using a novel transformer model on a sphere.
problem Financial forecasting from news and sentiment.
method Granger-causal hypergraph structure, Riemannian geometry, causally masked Transformer attention.
result CSHT outperforms baselines in return prediction, regime classification, and asset ranking.
The paper models reciprocity in interbank markets using a statistical null model.
problem Understanding the importance of individual banks in financial networks.
method Developed an exponential random graph model to account for reciprocal links on both topological and weighted levels.
result Weighted reciprocity in interbank markets is more significant than network size and volume before the financial crisis.
Debt-financed collateral in DeFi increases stability risks.
problem Financial stability risks in DeFi ecosystems due to debt-financed collateral.
method Categorization and classification algorithm to measure debt-financed collateral.
result Wide-spread use of stablecoins as debt-financed collateral increases financial stability risks.
Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
problem Timeliness of write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific issues.
method Comparative analysis of write-downs driven by macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific outcomes.
result Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
High frequency trading has led to widespread efforts to reduce information propagation delays between physically distant exchanges. Using relativistically correct millisecond-resolution tick data, we document a 3-millisecond decrease in one-way communication time between the Chicago and New York areas that has occurred…
Large language models learn company embeddings from SEC filings.
problem Lack of a rigorous definition of company similarity.
method Pre-trained and finetuned large language models (LLMs) to learn embeddings from SEC filings.
result LLMs can reproduce GICS classifications and indicate similar financial performance.
The paper analyzes algorithmic trading in cryptocurrency exchanges, finding a profitable strategy involving indirect conversions.
problem Lack of empirical analysis of algorithmic trading in cryptocurrency exchanges.
method Empirical analysis using historical trades data from Binance.
result A triangular arbitrage strategy yields a 14.4 basis point advantage over direct exchanges.
SAGE-FIN detects financial fraud using GNNs and Granger causality.
problem Detecting fraud in financial networks with limited labeled data and lack of explainability.
method Semi-supervised GNN approach with Granger causal explanations.
result SAGE-FIN outperforms on real-world financial network dataset with explainable flagged items.
Central Counterparties (CCPs) are widely promoted as a requirement for safe banking with little dissent except on technical grounds (such as proliferation of CCPs). Whilst CCPs can have major operational positives, we argue that CCPs have many of the business characteristics of Rating Agencies, and face similar busines…
FinGPT democratizes financial data for LLMs, enabling innovation.
problem Limited financial text datasets and disparities between general and financial text data.
method Automates collection and curation of real-time financial data from diverse Internet sources, fine-tuning with RLSP and LoRA.
result Democratizes access to financial data for LLMs, enabling innovation.
Model captures asymmetric extreme events in financial returns.
problem Capturing asymmetric extreme events in financial returns.
method Two-tailed peak-over-threshold Hawkes model.
result Extreme losses contribute twice as much as gains but decay more quickly.
Study compares Bitcoin, gold, and gas price complexity using multifractal and multiscale entropy methods.
problem Quantifying complexity of financial time series for market analysis.
method Employed MF-DFA and RCMSE to analyze Bitcoin, GBP/USD, gold, and natural gas price log-return time series.
result Bitcoin shows higher complexity compared to other markets, linked to higher nonlinear correlations.