CAFL breaks feedback loops in recommender systems using causal inference.
problem Feedback loops in recommender systems compromise recommendation quality and homogenize user behavior.
method Causal Adjustment for Feedback Loops (CAFL) algorithm that breaks feedback loops using causal inference.
result CAFL improves recommendation quality compared to prior correction methods.
DFNets uses feedback-looped filters for better graph CNN performance.
problem Improving CNN performance on graph structured data.
method DFNets incorporates feedback-looped spectral graph filters.
result DFNets outperforms state-of-the-art methods in document and entity classification tasks.
Theoretical model for iterative user discovery in recommender systems.
problem Iterative feedback loops in recommender systems and their biases.
method Theoretical framework to model system evolution and convergence properties.
result Theoretical bounds and convergence properties on user discovery and blind spots.
Study uses geometric algebra to analyze credit cycles, revealing dangerous feedback loops.
problem Understanding and predicting dangerous feedback loops in credit cycles.
method Represent economic states as multi-vectors in Clifford algebra, focusing on bivector elements for rotational coupling.
result Geometric relationship between unemployment and credit contraction shifts from simple correlation to dangerous rotational dynamics during crises.
The study aims to prevent unfair content presentation in recommender systems.
problem Over- and under-presentation of content leads to biased user preference estimates.
method Two models are considered: one that ignores systematic and limited exposure, and another that conditions on limited exposure.
result Ignoring systematic presentations overestimates promoted options and underestimates censored alternatives.
The paper optimizes exceptions in a statistical production system using machine learning.
problem Lack of curated and labeled training data for machine learning in data quality assurance.
method Explainable supervised machine learning to identify and prioritize exceptions.
result Improvement in the quality and efficiency of exceptions generated and authenticated by users.
Self-reinforcing feedback loops in personalization systems are typically caused by users choosing from a limited set of alternatives presented systematically based on previous choices. We propose a Bayesian choice model built on Luce axioms that explicitly accounts for users' limited exposure to alternatives. Our model…
Online algorithms stabilize in feedback loops of performative prediction.
problem Feedback loops in algorithmic predictions influence data distributions.
method Martingale argument and randomization to avoid distributional assumptions.
result No-regret algorithms converge to performatively stable equilibria.
Predictive policing systems are increasingly used to determine how to allocate police across a city in order to best prevent crime. Discovered crime data (e.g., arrest counts) are used to help update the model, and the process is repeated. Such systems have been empirically shown to be susceptible to runaway feedback l…
We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and how prices move, the joint fluctuations of order flow and liquidity - and the way…
Superconducting circuit technologies have recently achieved quantum protocols involving closed feedback loops. Quantum artificial intelligence and quantum machine learning are emerging fields inside quantum technologies which may enable quantum devices to acquire information from the outer world and improve themselves …
Cycles in causal learning cause feedback loops under intervention.
problem Cyclic causal structures lead to feedback loops in causal inference.
method Theoretical observations about self-referential distributions and their factorizations.
result Cyclic causal dependence can exist even when observational data suggest independence.
Develops a framework for analyzing multi-agent and many-body systems with feedback loops.
problem Optimal order of multi-agent and general many-body systems
method Derive macroscopic properties and optimal degree of order
result Optimal degree of order balances productivity, stability, and adaptability
Machine learning is used extensively in recommender systems deployed in products. The decisions made by these systems can influence user beliefs and preferences which in turn affect the feedback the learning system receives - thus creating a feedback loop. This phenomenon can give rise to the so-called "echo chambers" …
We propose a method for learning cyclic causal models from a combination of observational and interventional equilibrium data. Novel aspects of the proposed method are its ability to work with continuous data (without assuming linearity) and to deal with feedback loops. Within the context of biochemical reactions, we a…
New algorithm mitigates affinity bias in hiring feedback loops.
problem Mitigating affinity bias in hiring decisions to avoid unconscious favoritism.
method Introducing affinity bandits, a new bandit variant that accounts for evolving biased feedback.
result Elimination-style algorithm nearly matches the derived regret bound, outperforming classical algorithms.
New method detects when models influence their own drift in real-time data streams.
problem Models can induce concept drift in real-time data streams.
method CheckerBoard Performative Drift Detection (CB-PDD)
result CB-PDD effectively detects performative drift in real-time data streams.
Retraining stabilizes model influence on data.
problem Performativity in predictive models leads to feedback loops.
method Developed the stable signal principle to address retraining dynamics.
result Repeated risk minimization converges geometrically to stable signal direction.
Financial models shape markets through performativity, creating self-fulfilling prophecies.
problem Lack of mathematical formulation for performativity in financial markets.
method Embedding the model in the market process, creating a closed feedback loop.
result Performative market makers can reverse engineer dominant strategies and arbitrage them.
Automated suggestions help train technicians diagnose incidents faster.
problem Manual and time-consuming incident diagnosis by train maintenance technicians.
method Developed and deployed a learning machine to suggest diagnostics to technicians.
result The model refines its accuracy through feedback from experts and uses feature engineering.
Recommendation systems are ubiquitous and impact many domains; they have the potential to influence product consumption, individuals' perceptions of the world, and life-altering decisions. These systems are often evaluated or trained with data from users already exposed to algorithmic recommendations; this creates a pe…
Feedback loops amplify dataset biases, affecting future model performance.
problem Feedback loops amplify biases in datasets, risking future model reliability.
method Formalized system where model interactions are recorded and reused, analyzed for bias amplification.
result Models that behave like samples from the training distribution are more stable and calibrated.
New method tackles complex systems with hidden confounders and feedback loops.
problem Understanding complex systems with hidden confounders and feedback loops.
method Robust Causal Analysis of Linear Cyclic Systems with Hidden Confounders (LLC)
result LLC method can robustly analyze cyclic systems with hidden confounders.
We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections between firms, contagion leading to avalanches and percolation phase transitions pr…
Study counterfactuals in cyclic systems with shifts and scales.
problem Counterfactual inference in cyclic systems with shifts and scales.
method Shift-scale interventions in cyclic SCMs.
result Valid inference in cyclic systems with shifts and scales.
Many recommendation algorithms rely on user data to generate recommendations. However, these recommendations also affect the data obtained from future users. This work aims to understand the effects of this dynamic interaction. We propose a simple model where users with heterogeneous preferences arrive over time. Based…
We first review empirical evidence that asset prices have had episodes of large fluctuations and been inefficient for at least 200 years. We briefly review recent theoretical results as well as the neurological basis of trend following and finally argue that these asset price properties can be attributed to two fundame…
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
problem Understanding how predictions influence real-world outcomes.
method Causal identifiability analysis of prediction-covariate-outcome relationships.
result Standard supervised learning can identify transferable relationships from predictions.
Edge language models show bias over time, especially on resource-constrained devices.
problem Bias in edge language models on resource-constrained devices.
method Comparative analysis of text-based bias across edge, cloud, and desktop environments; optimized Llama-2 model on Raspberry Pi 4; feedback loop mechanism to correct bias.
result Llama-2 on Raspberry Pi 4 shows 43.23% and 21.89% more bias over time compared to cloud and desktop models.
Proposes a model for clearing prices in financial markets due to margin calls.
problem Determining prices in financial markets following margin calls and short squeezes.
method Developed an explicit formulation for clearing prices after margin calls and short squeezes.
result Identified a threshold short interest ratio leading to discontinuity in clearing prices.
A predictor that is deployed in a live production system may perturb the features it uses to make predictions. Such a feedback loop can occur, for example, when a model that predicts a certain type of behavior ends up causing the behavior it predicts, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this paper we analyze p…
Autoregressive state transitions, where predictions are conditioned on past predictions, are the predominant choice for both deterministic and stochastic sequential models. However, autoregressive feedback exposes the evolution of the hidden state trajectory to potential biases from well-known train-test discrepancies.…
Improves search performance by transferring knowledge from recommender system.
problem Cold start and feedback loop problems in search retrieval.
method Zero-Shot Heterogeneous Transfer Learning framework.
result Significant improvements in relevance and user interactions over production system.
Generative models map simple samples to complex target samples.
problem Improving Monte-Carlo sampling techniques.
method Variational learning of dynamical maps between base and target measures.
result Improved sampling efficiency through feedback loops.
ATPboost is a system for solving sets of large-theory problems by interleaving ATP runs with state-of-the-art machine learning of premise selection from the proofs. Unlike many previous approaches that use multi-label setting, the learning is implemented as binary classification that estimates the pairwise-relevance of…
Model shows how relaxed leverage can lead to asset price bubbles.
problem Understanding how financial leverage affects asset prices and growth.
method Developed a macro-finance model with feedback loops between investment and land prices.
result Relaxed leverage can cause unbalanced growth and asset price bubbles.
New framework ensures valid uncertainty estimates for any data stream changes.
problem Challenges of distribution shifts and adversarial actors in real-world data streams.
method Leveraging Blackwell approachability from game theory, the framework guarantees calibrated uncertainties for any compact space.
result Improves calibration and decision-making for energy systems.
Online learning with delayed feedback has received increasing attention recently due to its several applications in distributed, web-based learning problems. In this paper we provide a systematic study of the topic, and analyze the effect of delay on the regret of online learning algorithms. Somewhat surprisingly, it t…
New approach optimizes sales process for B2B businesses.
problem Optimizing the sales process for B2B businesses.
method Causal Predictive Optimization and Generation with three layers: prediction, optimization, and serving.
result Significant wins over legacy systems in LinkedIn implementation.
Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical studies suggest that large price jumps cannot be explained by news and are the …
In this paper we present Horizon, Facebook's open source applied reinforcement learning (RL) platform. Horizon is an end-to-end platform designed to solve industry applied RL problems where datasets are large (millions to billions of observations), the feedback loop is slow (vs. a simulator), and experiments must be do…
This paper models financial contagion with endogenously determined market liquidity.
problem Financial contagion and its impact on market liquidity during price drops.
method Developed a joint clearing system for interbank payments, asset prices, and market liquidity, with endogenous market capacity.
result Endogenous market liquidity significantly affects system risk during financial contagion.
Proposes a new fairness definition based on equity for machine learning classification.
problem Machine learning systems can perpetuate societal biases.
method Formalizes a new fairness definition based on equity, operationalizes it for classification, and evaluates its effectiveness.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the new fairness definition for equitable classification.
The study examines how model predictions hold up under model extensions.
problem Model predictions may not be robust under model extensions, limiting their applicability.
method The study uses causal ordering to assess robustness of qualitative model predictions and characterizes model extensions that preserve predictions.
result Conditions and techniques are provided to assess robustness of model predictions under model extensions.
MissNODAG learns cyclic causal graphs from incomplete data.
problem Causal discovery in systems with feedback loops and missing data.
method Differentiable framework integrating additive noise model and expectation-maximization.
result MissNODAG uncovers cyclic structures and missingness mechanisms from partially observed data.
The study explains how market-makers' hedging affects stock volatility during gamma-squeeze events.
problem Endogenous volatility amplification in option markets during gamma-squeeze events.
method Developed a theoretical framework linking hedging behavior and market turbulence, incorporating beta-normalized volatility.
result Low-beta stocks amplify volatility more during gamma-squeeze events.
This research improves interpretability in sequential explanations using mental models.
problem Improving interpretability in sequential explanations between two parties.
method A reinforcement learning framework that selects explanations based on the explainee's mental model.
result Mental model-based policies increase interpretability over random selection in multiple sequential explanations.
In this chapter we review some recent results on the dynamics of price formation in financial markets and its relations with the efficient market hypothesis. Specifically, we present the limit order book mechanism for markets and we introduce the concepts of market impact and order flow, presenting their recently disco…