The paper constructs optimal hedging strategies for options with price impact.
problem Optimal hedging strategies for options with temporary price impact.
method Combining analytic and probabilistic tools to establish feedback representation of the optimal strategy and derive utility indifference price.
result Explicit asymptotic expansion of utility indifference price quantifying price impact.
A consistency criterion for price impact functions in limit order markets is proposed that prohibits chain arbitrage exploitation. Both the bid-ask spread and the feedback of sequential market orders of the same kind onto both sides of the order book are essential to ensure consistency at the smallest time scale. All t…
Study shows visual feedback and monetary incentives reduce plugload energy consumption in commercial buildings.
problem Mitigating energy consumption in commercial buildings through occupant plugload control.
method Field experiments with visual feedback and monetary incentives in government and university buildings.
result Mean energy reduction of ~9.52% in office environments and ~21.61% in university environments with visual feedback.
We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and how prices move, the joint fluctuations of order flow and liquidity - and the way…
Platform learns user policies to avoid abandonment.
problem Personalized policies risk user abandonment.
method Thresholded learning model for personalized policies.
result Optimal policies and feedback impact results.
Study shows competition feedback can make ML predictors biased towards specific user groups.
problem How competition affects machine learning predictors and user prediction quality.
method Flexible model of competing ML predictors, empirical and mathematical analysis.
result Competition causes predictors to specialize for specific sub-populations at the cost of general performance.
Algorithmic recommendation systems can homogenize user behavior, reducing utility.
problem Algorithmic feedback loops homogenize user behavior in recommendation systems.
method Simulations of recommendation systems using confounded data.
result Using confounded data decreases utility without increasing diversity.
Study quantile reward identification with 1-bit feedback constraints.
problem Best arm identification with quantile reward and 1-bit communication.
method Proposes an algorithm using noisy binary search for quantile reward estimation.
result Derives upper and lower bounds on sample complexity for 1-bit feedback.
RPNN-EOFs model improves time series forecasting accuracy.
problem Improving time series forecasting accuracy for complex systems.
method Combines higher-order neural networks with error-output feedbacks.
result RPNN-EOFs outperformed other models in forecasting the Mackey-Glass time series.
Modeling option market making with hedging-induced price impact.
problem Tackles the challenge of market making in options markets with price impact.
method Models option order flow using Cox processes and studies the dynamics of inventory and price under hedging-induced impact.
result Establishes the well-posedness of the mixed control problem involving quoting and hedging.
This paper performs the numerical analysis and the computation of a Spread option in a market with imperfect liquidity. The number of shares traded in the stock market has a direct impact on the stock's price. Thus, we consider a full-feedback model in which price impact is fully incorporated into the model. The price …
Study shows how sentiment shocks affect equity markets, revealing asymmetries and state-dependent effects.
problem Understanding how sentiment shocks propagate through equity markets and their impact on different investor groups.
method Used four independent proxies with sign-aligned kappa-rho parameters, calibrated a structural model to link sentiment to returns.
result A one standard deviation sentiment shock has a 1.06 basis point impact, with effects amplified over 11.2 months and concentrated in retail-tilted stocks.
Paper addresses generalization error bounds for learning with censored feedback.
problem Impact of censored feedback on generalization error bounds.
method Derives an extension of DKW inequality for non-IID data due to censored feedback and uses it to bound generalization error.
result Existing generalization error bounds fail to account for censored feedback, necessitating new bounds.
Constant price impact functions, much used in financial literature, are shown to give rise to paradoxical outcomes since they do not allow for proper predictability removal: for instance the exploitation of a single large trade whose size and time of execution are known in advance to some insider leaves the arbitrage o…
Model shows how confidence feedback can lead to different crisis outcomes.
problem Characterizing the impact of economic recessions on different social strata.
method A self-reflexive DSGE model with heterogeneous households, varying parameters to analyze crisis typologies.
result Crisis propagation can be confined to high or low income households, depending on social network structure and income inequality.
We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by 4 kernels associated with respectively the trade arrival self-excitation, the price changes mean reversion…
Incentivized exploration improves MAB performance under reward drift.
problem Improving exploration in multi-armed bandits with biased feedback.
method Analysis of three MAB algorithms (UCB, ε-Greedy, Thompson Sampling) under drifted reward feedback.
result All algorithms achieve O(logT) regret and compensation under drifted reward. This work improves generative models by using feedback from multiple dependent models.
problem Improving the performance of generative models in multi-agent systems.
method Building a hierarchical set-up of multiple dependent generative models and using feedback to improve lower-level models.
result The technique improves the performance of lower-level generative models under certain conditions.
New RL algorithm handles delayed feedback with posterior sampling.
problem Challenges of delayed feedback in reinforcement learning with linear function approximation.
method Posterior sampling with delayed feedback for value-based RL.
result Achieves optimal regret guarantee with improved computational efficiency.
Study improves understanding and performance of FA learning rules in neural networks.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding and limited applications of Feedback Alignment (FA) methods.
method Introduces a unified framework linking synaptic weight changes to implicit regularization, providing convergence conditions and empirical evidence.
result Better alignment can enhance FA performance on complex multi-class tasks.
Predicting the efficacy of a drug for a given individual, using high-dimensional genomic measurements, is at the core of precision medicine. However, identifying features on which to base the predictions remains a challenge, especially when the sample size is small. Incorporating expert knowledge offers a promising alt…
Algorithm learns feature representations from randomized experiments to improve counterfactual inferences.
problem Measuring the impact of interventions with limited feedback.
method Feature learning algorithm from randomized experiments to identify effective and ineffective interventions.
result The algorithm leverages feature representations to derive the value of interventions for each instance, improving decision-making.
New algorithm for multi-armed bandits with delayed, partially observed rewards.
problem Sequential decision-making with delayed feedback.
method Proposed multi-armed bandits with generalized temporally-partitioned rewards, introducing β-spread property.
result Upper bound on performance of TP-UCB-FR-G algorithm improves state of the art.
We consider the stochastic control problem of a financial trader that needs to unwind a large asset portfolio within a short period of time. The trader can simultaneously submit active orders to a primary market and passive orders to a dark pool. Our framework is flexible enough to allow for price-dependent impact func…
A new personality-based recommender system tackles data sparsity without feedback.
problem Data sparsity without common feedback among users.
method Implicitly identifying users' personality type and incorporating it with personal interests and knowledge level.
result The model's effectiveness, especially in data sparsity situations, demonstrated on a real-world dataset.
This paper analyzes error feedback in compressed federated learning for non-convex optimization problems.
problem Reducing communication cost in federated learning with biased gradient compression.
method Proposes Fed-EF, a compressed federated learning scheme with error feedback, and analyzes its convergence rate and performance under partial client participation.
result Fed-EF can match the convergence rate of full-precision FL under data heterogeneity with a linear speedup and no extra slow-down factor due to stale error compensation.
Novel signature approach for pricing and hedging path-dependent options with market frictions.
problem Pricing and hedging path-dependent options with market frictions.
method Signature approach, mean-quadratic variation criterion, non-standard infinite-dimensional Riccati equations, time-augmented signature, non-Markovian stochastic control problem.
result Effective hedging strategies in frictional markets with low-truncated signature approximations.
Study learns optimal bidding strategy in auctions with dynamic values and aggregated feedback.
problem Optimizing bidding in auctions with time-dependent values and limited feedback.
method Combines plug-in estimators with differential-equation characterization of optimal policy.
result Achieves near optimal regret bounds for learning optimal policy.
New algorithm for bandits with delayed action effects, reducing regret.
problem Delayed impact of actions in multi-armed bandits.
method Formulated a new bandit setting with delayed action effects, proposed an algorithm with regret bound.
result Achieved a regret of ildeO(KT2/3) and showed a matching lower bound. Agent-based market shows herding cycles with square-root price impact.
problem Understanding herding cycles in agent-based markets.
method Agent-based model with 20,000 retail traders interacting with a single institutional agent.
result Agent discovers multi-cycle predatory strategy with 8-11 complete cycles over 2000 trading days.
We decompose, within an ARCH framework, the daily volatility of stocks into overnight and intra-day contributions. We find, as perhaps expected, that the overnight and intra-day returns behave completely differently. For example, while past intra-day returns affect equally the future intra-day and overnight volatilitie…
The paper enhances a virtual assistant's humor to improve user satisfaction.
problem Improving a virtual assistant's ability to deliver humorous responses.
method Combines traditional NLP techniques with self-attentional networks and multi-task learning, using implicit feedback for labeling.
result Deep-learning models outperform heuristic methods in real-world user satisfaction.
RL optimizes meta-order execution by adapting to market conditions.
problem Optimal execution of large orders while minimizing market impact.
method Data-driven, model-free reinforcement learning with Queue-Reactive Model.
result RL agent learns effective execution policies across various conditions.
Review of acoustic scene classification methods in a competition.
problem Categorizing audio sequences into classes based on spectral content.
method Competition involving students and external participants, ablation study, neural network baseline comparison.
result Improved classification over neural network baseline.
Study uses machine learning to optimize stock trading strategies.
problem Optimizing stock trading strategies with machine learning.
method Dynamic programming and deep learning for nonlinear price impact.
result NN surrogates accurately approximate optimal strategies.
IAL uses interactive learning to improve model performance with minimal human feedback.
problem Overfitting and high human interaction cost in training neural networks.
method IAL framework with NAP attention generator and reranking algorithm.
result IAL significantly outperforms baselines with less retraining and human interaction.
DFA trains deep networks by aligning weights then memorizing data.
problem Understanding why DFA works for some networks but not others.
method Two-step learning process: alignment followed by memorization.
result DFA aligns weights to maximize gradient alignment, breaking degeneracy.
Fairness criteria may harm over time, contrary to conventional wisdom.
problem The impact of fairness criteria on long-term population well-being.
method Study of fairness criteria in a one-step feedback model, analyzing long-term outcomes.
result Static fairness criteria do not necessarily promote improvement over time and may cause harm.
Study shows feedback effect between capital flows volatility and financial stability in DRC.
problem Volatility of capital flows can undermine financial stability in DRC.
method Dynamic regression model and vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze feedback effects and policy impacts.
result Feedback effect between capital flows volatility and financial stability exists in DRC, but policies do not effectively mitigate volatility.
Study predicts which patients will benefit from digital health interventions.
problem Unclear targeting of patients for digital care management programs.
method Analyzed claims data, combined with sociodemographic and app-generated data. Created two models: cost prediction and impactability classification.
result Random forest model accurately categorized patients as impactable or not, achieving 71.9% accuracy.
This research examines relationship between staging of Venture Capital (VC) investments and social feedback visible in publicly available data on the Web. We address the question of Venture Capital investment sensitivity to performance and prospects of new venture, given as likelihood of obtaining future financing, ava…
We study a dynamical Ising model of agents' opinions (buy or sell) with coupling coefficients reassessed continuously in time according to how past external news (magnetic field) have explained realized market returns. By combining herding, the impact of external news and private information, we test within the same mo…
Three ways synchronization in financial markets can cause contagion, using models of decision-making and oscillators.
problem Contagion in financial markets caused by synchronization of decision-making.
method Agent-based modeling, integrate-and-fire oscillators, and communication models.
result Synchronization in financial markets can lead to turbulent periods and contagion.
The QLBS model is enhanced with a large trader's impact, leading to optimal hedging strategies.
problem Finding an optimal hedging strategy with low transaction costs and fair price convergence.
method Extending the QLBS model, defining a hypothetical limit order book, and using batch-mode reinforcement learning.
result Optimal hedging strategy with lower transaction costs and fair price convergence.
New algorithm uses random matrices for neural network training without synaptic weight symmetries.
problem Training neural networks efficiently and without synaptic weight symmetries.
method Contrastive Hebbian learning with random feedback weights.
result Random contrastive Hebbian learning achieves better computational models for learning.
Simulates realistic execution and costs in limit order books.
problem Realistic simulation of limit order books for large-tick assets.
method Tractable representation of spread and volume imbalance; calibrated event timing; feedback mechanism for market impact.
result Simulator yields realistic behavior and sensitivity to execution parameters.
New insights into cascade feedback linearization of control systems.
problem Obtaining a cascade feedback linearization for invariant control systems.
method Introducing truncated versions of operators from the calculus of variations to prove new theorems.
result Established new geometry and foundational theorems for future work.
Following a long tradition of physicists who have noticed that the Ising model provides a general background to build realistic models of social interactions, we study a model of financial price dynamics resulting from the collective aggregate decisions of agents. This model incorporates imitation, the impact of extern…