FedSight AI predicts federal funds rate using LLMs and multi-agent reasoning.
problem Predicting Federal Open Market Committee's decisions on federal funds rate.
method Multi-agent framework with large language models, structured and unstructured inputs, and CoD extension for efficient reasoning.
result Achieved 93.75% accuracy and 93.33% stability in predicting FOMC outcomes.
The paper models SOFR and EFFR dynamics, reconciling diffusive and piecewise paths.
problem Updating interest rate models for SOFR, which is becoming a key benchmark.
method Calibrates a model to SOFR and EFFR futures prices, reconciling diffusive and piecewise paths.
result The model reflects key empirical features of SOFR dynamics and reconciles diffusive and piecewise paths.
The model of this paper gives a convenient strategy that a bank in the federal funds market can use in order to maximize its profit in a contemporaneous reserve requirement (CRR) regime. The reserve requirements are determined by the demand deposit process, modelled as a Brownian motion with drift. We propose a new mod…
Study uses ML to analyze how interest rates affect fund returns, finding gradient boosting is effective.
problem Understanding how interest rate changes impact fund returns.
method Combines Machine Learning and causal inference, using Double Machine Learning framework.
result Gradient boosting is useful for predicting fund returns, showing a significant negative effect of interest rate increases.
Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in…
We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analogue of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify th…
Paper finds funding rates on BitMEX predict Bitcoin inverse swap contracts.
problem Understanding the relationship between BitMEX funding rates and Bitcoin derivatives.
method Examined Heteroskedasticity of funding rates, established Granger causality, developed GARCH models for prediction.
result Funding rates on BitMEX predict Bitcoin inverse swap contracts.
This paper examines the risk-adjusted performance and differential fund flows for socially responsible mutual funds (SRMF). The results show that SRMF rated high on ESG, perform better than lower rated ESG funds during the period of economic crisis. The findings also show that low ESG rated SRMF had higher differential…
Study optimizes funding rates for cryptocurrency perpetual futures to maintain price alignment.
problem Maintaining alignment between perpetual future prices and target values in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed replicating portfolios and path-dependent funding rates using path-dependent infinite-horizon BSDEs and arbitrage pricing theory.
result Appropriate funding rate design can keep perpetual future prices aligned with target values.
This paper examines interest rates and market efficiency in DeFi loanable funds protocols.
problem Equilibrium of supply and demand for loanable funds in DeFi protocols.
method Review of interest rate mechanisms in Compound, Aave, and dYdX; empirical analysis of market efficiency and inter-connectedness.
result Interest rate rules in DeFi protocols do not always equilibrate supply and demand.
This paper optimizes perpetual contract liquidity by accounting for funding rates.
problem Optimal liquidity provision for perpetual contracts with stochastic funding rates.
method Formulated a control problem, solved with a HJB scheme, and calibrated on real data.
result Funding-aware market making improves performance and reduces inventory risk.
The study shows interest rates impact investment and funding negatively but positively on dividend decisions.
problem The effect of interest rates on financial decisions like investment, funding, and dividend.
method Correlation coefficient analysis and descriptive methods.
result Interest rates have a negatively insignificant effect on investment and funding decisions, but positively moderate effect on dividend decisions.
We discuss the binary nature of funding impact in derivative valuation. Under some conditions, funding is either a cost or a benefit, i.e., one of the lending/borrowing rates does not play a role in pricing derivatives. When derivatives are priced, considering different lending/borrowing rates leads to semi-linear BSDE…
Model estimates LIBOR rates and finds COVID-19 spread spike due to credit risk.
problem Estimating LIBOR rates and understanding the factors affecting them.
method Developed a joint model for various LIBOR-related rates and used it to decompose spreads.
result Credit risk mainly caused the spike in LIBOR-OIS spread during the COVID-19 onset, with equal contributions from credit and funding-liquidity risks on average.
The paper explores perpetual contracts in a financial market without arbitrage.
problem Modeling perpetual contracts in a continuous-time financial market.
method Derive model-free and semi-robust expressions for perpetual contracts' funding and discount rates.
result Explicit replication strategies for perpetual contracts are derived, relating them to traditional financial instruments.
New federated learning protocols resist Byzantine failures and offer privacy guarantees.
problem Resisting Byzantine failures in federated learning.
method Proposes robust federated learning protocols with optimal statistical rates and privacy guarantees.
result Achieves nearly optimal statistical rates and tight rate in terms of all parameters for strongly convex losses.
The study highlights the importance of Wrong-Way Risk in FVA calculations during financial market turmoil.
problem The relevance of Wrong-Way Risk in Funding Valuation Adjustments (FVA) during financial market uncertainty.
method The study examines the impact of various modelling choices, including default times and stochastic/deterministic funding spreads, on FVA calculations.
result WWR effects are non-negligible in FVA modelling from a risk-management perspective.
EM algorithm speeds up convergence in federated learning with heterogenous data.
problem Understanding convergence rates of federated learning algorithms under data heterogeneity.
method Characterized convergence rate of EM algorithm for FMLR model under various regimes.
result EM algorithm converges to ground truth with SNR ≥ √K in all regimes.
Study improves U.S. monetary policy forecasting by integrating text and data.
problem Forecasting central bank policy decisions, especially the Fed's rate changes.
method Multi-modal approach combining structured data and unstructured text from Fed communications.
result Hybrid models outperform unimodal baselines, achieving a test AUC of 0.83.
Private cancer prediction model trained on federated genomic data.
problem Train a private cancer prediction model on federated genomic data.
method Differentially private federated learning (FL) for genomic cancer prediction.
result Ranked 3rd in a competition for private cancer prediction.
An option market maker incurs funding costs when carrying and hedging inventory. To hedge a net long delta inventory, for example, she pays a fee to borrow stock from the securities lending market. Because of haircuts, she posts additional cash margin to the lender which needs to be financed at her unsecured debt rate.…
The study proposes a framework to assess sustainability of firms using fund-level classifications and portfolio holdings.
problem To capture market-based sustainability assessments of firms.
method Exploiting fund-level sustainability classifications and granular portfolio holdings to construct Market-Implied Sustainability (MIS) scores.
result MIS scores capture sustainability dimensions different from conventional ESG ratings and improve portfolio performance.
Muon optimizer improves federated learning performance.
problem Improving federated learning performance with Muon optimizer.
method Proposed FedMuon algorithm with orthonormalized update direction.
result FedMuon's learning rate is independent of problem-specific parameters.
The paper uses CPI growth rates to improve LGD predictions for CRE loans.
problem Challenges in forecasting LGD for CRE loans due to extended resolution times and restricted data.
method Combines internal and public data, including CPI growth rates, to forecast CRE LGD.
result Incorporating CPI at the time of default improves LGD prediction accuracy.
Perpetual futures offer leverage without maturity, with prices influenced by funding rates.
problem Understanding and pricing perpetual futures with funding rates.
method Derive no-arbitrage prices and bounds in markets with trading costs. Empirically analyze deviations and Sharpe ratios of implied arbitrage strategies.
result Implied arbitrage strategies in crypto markets yield high Sharpe ratios, indicating significant pricing inefficiencies.
New methods reduce private federated learning communication automatically.
problem Reducing communication in private federated learning.
method Automatic compression rate adjustment based on training error, using secure aggregation and differential privacy.
result Provable instance-optimal for mean estimation, achieving favorable compression rates.
Study on optimal fees in hedge funds with first-loss compensation.
problem Determining the best fee structure for hedge funds with first-loss compensation.
method Solved the manager's non-concave utility maximization problem, calculated Pareto optimal first-loss schemes, and maximized a decision criterion on this set.
result Traditional fees are not Pareto optimal, and the preferred first-loss coverage guarantee varies with investor and market factors.
New adaptive SGD algorithms for federated learning over physical channels.
problem Reducing communication cost in federated learning over physical channels.
method Proposed adaptive federated SGD algorithms considering channel noise and hardware constraints.
result Demonstrated convergence rates adaptive to stochastic gradient noise level.
FedBuff improves federated learning scalability with asynchronous updates.
problem Limited scalability of federated learning with synchronous updates.
method Introduces asynchronous updates (staleness) in federated learning.
result Theoretical analysis shows improved convergence rate with boundedness removed.
Optimizes communication in federated learning using rate-distortion theory.
problem Reduces communication cost in federated learning while maintaining model accuracy.
method Applies rate-distortion theory to model updates, proposing distortion as a proxy for accuracy.
result Near-optimal communication reduction, outperforming other methods on a FL benchmark.
Modeling climate change costs with stochastic interest rates shows inequality, but funding abatement can reduce this.
problem Evaluating the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation with uncertain discount rates.
method Amended DICE model with stochastic interest rates and funding abatement costs.
result Introducing funding abatement can reduce intergenerational inequality in climate change costs.
Paper develops Gaussian approximations and bootstrap for federated LSA with trade-off bounds.
problem Analyzing convergence rates and trade-offs in federated linear stochastic approximation.
method Established Berry-Esseen-type bounds for federated LSA, developed multiplier bootstrap for inference.
result First federated Gaussian approximations with explicit trade-off terms and non-asymptotic validity guarantees.
Investigates optimal withdrawal strategies in VA contracts with tax and ratchet mechanisms.
problem Optimizing withdrawal strategies and behavior of policyholders in VA contracts with tax and ratchet mechanisms.
method Solving a backward dynamic programming problem to optimize cash flows from VA contracts, considering hybrid products and taxation effects.
result Tax-shielding effect of the cash fund enhances contract attractiveness, ratchet mechanism discourages early surrender, and cash fund discourages active withdrawals.
A novel decentralized algorithm improves minimax optimization in federated learning.
problem Minimax optimization in federated learning with data heterogeneity.
method Decentralized Gradient Tracking (K-GT-Minimax) for nonconvex-strongly-concave optimization.
result Demonstrates superior convergence rate for NC-SC minimax optimization.
Unified view of federated learning and distributed RL using local stochastic approximation.
problem Finding the root of an operator composed of local operators in a network of agents with dependent data.
method Local stochastic approximation over a network of agents with Markov process-dependent data.
result Convergence rates of local stochastic approximation for both constant and time-varying step sizes, within a logarithmic factor of independent data.
In this note we sketch an initial tentative approach to funding costs analysis and management for contracts with bilateral counterparty risk in a simplified setting. We depart from the existing literature by analyzing the issue of funding costs and benefits under the assumption that the associated risks cannot be hedge…
We determine the optimal investment strategy in a Black-Scholes financial market to minimize the so-called {\it probability of drawdown}, namely, the probability that the value of an investment portfolio reaches some fixed proportion of its maximum value to date. We assume that the portfolio is subject to a payout that…
Optimizes pension fund management under funding risks.
problem Managing DB pension fund under underfunded and overfunded conditions.
method Stochastic model with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck interest rate, geometric Brownian motion for benefits, and cash, bond, stock investments.
result Optimal wealth process, portfolio, and efficient frontier obtained under various tolerance levels for solvency risk.
FedDuA adapts global learning rate for federated learning.
problem Slow convergence in federated learning due to dataset and parameter space heterogeneity.
method FedDuA uses mirror descent to adaptively select global learning rate based on inter-client and coordinate-wise heterogeneity.
result FedDuA achieves minimax optimal convergence for convex objectives and outperforms baselines in various settings.
Paper optimizes federated PCA for covariance estimation under privacy constraints.
problem Privacy-preserving covariance estimation in federated learning.
method Federated PCA, matrix version of van Trees' inequality, three-layer spectral decomposition.
result Optimal rates of convergence for central server's estimation, robust to inconsistent local estimators.
Agent optimizes perpetual contract liquidation with transaction costs and risk.
problem Optimizing perpetual contract liquidation with transaction costs and risk.
method Solving stochastic control problem for optimal trading strategy.
result Closed-form expression and approximations for optimal strategy.
This dissertation advances the theoretical foundation of local optimization methods in Federated Learning.
problem Theoretical understanding of local optimization methods in Federated Learning is lacking.
method The dissertation proposes and analyzes new methods to improve convergence rates and communication efficiency in Federated Learning.
result Sharp bounds and convergence rates for FedAvg are established, and new methods like FedAc and Federated Dual Averaging are proposed.
Paper tackles federated learning with privacy, enhancing target data analysis.
problem Heterogeneity and privacy of distributed data in federated learning.
method Formulates federated differential privacy, studies statistical problems under privacy constraints.
result Federated differential privacy offers a balance between privacy and knowledge transfer.
Paper studies federated nonparametric testing with privacy constraints, achieving optimal rates and adaptive testing.
problem Federated nonparametric goodness-of-fit testing under distributed differential privacy constraints.
method Establishes matching lower and upper bounds on minimax separation rate, constructs adaptive testing procedure.
result Achieves optimal rates and demonstrates phase transition phenomena in federated testing.
New algorithm achieves linear speedup in non-i.i.d. federated bilevel learning.
problem Linear speedup in convergence for non-i.i.d. datasets in federated bilevel optimization.
method Proposes FedMBO with a novel client sampling scheme for non-i.i.d. datasets.
result Achieves a convergence rate of O(1/√(nK) + 1/K + √n/K³/²).
FedLion improves Federated Learning by speeding up convergence and reducing communication costs.
problem Slow convergence and high communication costs in Federated Learning.
method Integrates Lion's adaptive approach into Federated Learning framework, using signed gradients.
result FedLion outperforms existing adaptive algorithms in convergence rate and communication efficiency.
Study measures investment funds' climate transition risk, finds moderate losses.
problem Measuring the impact of climate transition on investment portfolios.
method Comprehensive framework using geographical, sectoral, company and ISIN-level data.
result Investment funds suffer a moderate 5.7% loss in high transition risk scenario.
Study uses put-call parity to estimate cost of funding in equity derivatives markets.
problem Estimating the cost of funding in active equity derivative markets.
method Develops a method using European put and call prices to recover the implicit discount factor and cost of funding.
result Identifies the cost of funding in major equity markets, showing it is typically around 34 basis points above OIS.