FFCP improves FCP's speed without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Inefficient feature transformation in FCP.
method Introduces FFCP using Taylor expansion for faster computation.
result FFCP achieves a 50x speedup with comparable accuracy.
Essential principal components simplify spectral analysis with minimal training data.
problem Accurate spectral quantification from complex mixtures.
method Identifying essential principal components and using molar extinction coefficients.
result Near one-to-one projection from principal components to mixture constituents.
Bayesian hierarchical models are increasing popular in economics. When using hierarchical models, it is useful not only to calculate posterior expectations, but also to measure the robustness of these expectations to reasonable alternative prior choices. We use variational Bayes and linear response methods to provide f…
BODE enhances deep neural network predictions and uncertainty quantification in safety modeling.
problem Uncertainty in deep neural network predictions for safety-critical applications.
method Bayesian optimization combined with deep ensembles (BODE).
result BODE reduces total uncertainty by over 30% compared to a manually tuned baseline ensemble.
Fast algorithm solves BVPs in linear time with probabilistic uncertainty.
problem Solving boundary value problems efficiently and accurately.
method Gauss--Markov prior tailored to BVPs, linear-time computation.
result Probabilistic solution with linear time complexity and comparable quality.
A GAN method for stochastic boundary conditions in fast dynamics.
problem Uncertainty quantification in fast dynamics and wave propagation.
method Physics-informed GANs for stochastic boundary conditions.
result Improved convergence and better stochastic boundary conditions.
Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of myelin water content quantification using fast dual-echo steady-state (DESS) scans and machine learning with kernels. Methods: We optimized combinations of steady-state (SS) scans for precisely estimating the fast-relaxing signal fraction ff of a two-compartment signal model, …
Survey and framework for consistent uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
problem Partial uncertainty coverage and inconsistencies in deep learning uncertainty quantification.
method Bayes' theorem and conditional probability densities applied to all major sources of uncertainty.
result Improved robustness and reliability of neural network predictions in real-world scenarios.
The paper introduces a method to quantify uncertainty in neural networks without parametric assumptions.
problem Uncertainty quantification for neural network predictions.
method Nonparametric estimation of conditional label distribution using Nadaraya-Watson kernel.
result The method effectively disentangles aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
NBE method speeds up Lévy process parameter estimation.
problem Challenging parameter estimation for Lévy processes with unavailable or costly likelihoods.
method Neural Bayes estimation (NBE) framework using permutation-invariant neural networks.
result NBE provides accurate and consistent estimators with reduced runtime.
Probabilistic SR method speeds up high-fidelity simulations with reliable uncertainty estimates.
problem Lack of reliable uncertainty quantification in deep-learning based SR methods.
method Statistical Finite Element Method and energy-based generative modeling.
result Efficient high-resolution predictions with inherent uncertainty estimates.
Neural networks estimate spatial process likelihoods efficiently.
problem Challenges in estimating spatial processes with slow or intractable likelihoods.
method Convolutional neural networks trained on a classification task to learn likelihood function.
result Neural likelihood surfaces provide fast and accurate parameter estimation.
Efficiently quantifies uncertainty in DeepONets for function spaces.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep operator networks.
method Randomized prior ensembles for frequentist inference.
result Improved robustness and accuracy, reliable uncertainty estimates, out-of-distribution detection, and model bias quantification.
Cheap methods improve uncertainty in SGD solutions.
problem Uncertainty quantification in SGD solutions.
method Two resampling-based methods: parallel resampling with replacement and online resampling.
result Significantly reduced computation effort in constructing confidence intervals.
The paper introduces algorithms for uncertainty quantification in metric spaces.
problem Uncertainty quantification in regression models defined on metric spaces.
method Proposes conformal and kNN prediction algorithms for metric spaces.
result Both algorithms provide finite-sample guarantees and improve local coverage calibration.
A method to reduce memory usage in deep learning models by adding inducing weights.
problem Memory inefficiency in Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles.
method Augmenting the weight matrix with inducing weights and using Matheron's conditional Gaussian sampling rule.
result Reduces parameter size to 24.3% of a single neural network while maintaining competitive performance.
In point-based sensing systems such as coordinate measuring machines (CMM) and laser ultrasonics where complete sensing is impractical due to the high sensing time and cost, adaptive sensing through a systematic exploration is vital for online inspection and anomaly quantification. Most of the existing sequential sampl…
INNs produce interval-valued uncertainty scores for DNNs.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks.
method Data-driven interval propagating network using interval arithmetic.
result INNs produce sensible lower and upper bounds for prediction error.
Bayesian emulator tackles models with discontinuities efficiently.
problem Uncertainty quantification of models with multiple discontinuities.
method TENSE framework, designed correlation structures, single emulator object.
result Efficient emulation of complex models with multiple discontinuities.
In this paper, we study the problem of deriving fast and accurate classification algorithms with uncertainty quantification. Gaussian process classification provides a principled approach, but the corresponding computational burden is hardly sustainable in large-scale problems and devising efficient alternatives is a c…
New algorithms for fast online decision making using neural networks and martingale posteriors.
problem Online sequential decision making under uncertainty.
method Martingale posterior neural networks for fast online learning and decision making.
result Achieves competitive performance-speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization.
New method quantifies uncertainty in denoising models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in denoising models.
method Derives a relation between posterior moments and derivatives, uses it for efficient uncertainty quantification.
result Efficient computation of principal components and full marginal distributions of the posterior.
Unified Bayesian framework for uncertainty quantification in mechanics.
problem Propagation of input uncertainties and inference of unknown parameters.
method Bayesian probability theory for forward and inverse problems.
result Unified theoretical framework for both forward and inverse UQ.
Scalable algorithm for sampling Gaussian processes using sparse grids and preconditioners.
problem Generating high-dimensional Gaussian random vectors for GP sampling is computationally challenging.
method Proposes a scalable algorithm using inducing points approximation with sparse grids and additive Schwarz preconditioners.
result Demonstrates the efficacy and accuracy of the proposed method through experiments and comparisons.
NIPA aims to translate brain learning mechanisms into scalable Bayesian inference.
problem Scalable Bayesian inference for large-scale statistical machine learning problems.
method Neural-inspired algorithm combining model-based, model-free, and episodic-control modules.
result Advances Bayesian methods and facilitates their application to deep learning.
A fast method combines deep mixtures of sparse GPs for flexible modeling.
problem Flexible modeling with changing output densities.
method Designing gating network with DNN for selecting sparse GPs, using CCR algorithm.
result The method outperforms competing methods in accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
ParaMonte::Python streamlines Bayesian data analysis with fast Monte Carlo and MCMC routines.
problem Efficiently sampling posterior distributions in Bayesian modeling and data science.
method Serial and MPI-parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) routines.
result Automated model calibration and uncertainty quantification in Bayesian analysis.
Enhances XGBoost for better uncertainty quantification in ML predictions.
problem Uncertainty in ML predictions, especially for XGBoost.
method Quantile Extreme Gradient Boosting (QXGBoost) using Huber norm in quantile regression.
result QXGBoost produces more accurate 90% prediction intervals.
This thesis advances algorithms and software for QMC, GP, and sciML.
problem Efficient high-dimensional integration, interpolation, and PDE modeling.
method Developed new algorithms and software for QMC, GP, and sciML.
result Efficient and accurate methods for high-dimensional problems.
Efficient neural network ensembles improve image classification reliability and uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in neural network predictions for industrial image classification.
method Investigated efficient neural network ensembles (snapshot, batch, multi-input multi-output) for image classification reliability and uncertainty quantification.
result Batch ensemble is a cost-effective and competitive alternative to deep ensembles, offering savings in training and test time.
New method speeds up uncertainty estimation for large datasets in causal inference.
problem Computational infeasibility of bootstrap-based uncertainty quantification for large datasets.
method Extends cBLB algorithm to kernel methods, combining subsampling and resampling.
result Achieves computational scalability with nominal coverage.
New method provides formal uncertainty guarantees for image classifiers.
problem Uncertainty quantification for image classifiers without formal guarantees.
method Adapts conformal prediction to give stable, formal coverage guarantees.
result Method outperforms existing approaches in coverage and set size.
SBMC method improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.
problem Improving uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method A scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo method using a model and parallel SMC/MCMC algorithm.
result SBMC achieves comparable or better accuracy and improved uncertainty quantification compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Graph neural networks extend neural Bayes estimators to irregular spatial data.
problem Estimating parameters from irregular spatial data with computational efficiency.
method Employing graph neural networks to approximate Bayes estimators for irregular spatial data.
result Extending neural Bayes estimation to irregular spatial data with computational benefits.
RETINA Benchmark evaluates Bayesian deep learning on diabetic retinopathy detection.
problem Reliable uncertainty quantification for deep learning models in medical applications.
method Design and evaluation of a real-world diabetic retinopathy dataset and tasks.
result Benchmarking of Bayesian deep learning methods on diabetic retinopathy detection tasks.
New algorithm tracks deep RL value functions with uncertainty.
problem Static RL algorithms ignore uncertainty in agent-environment interactions.
method Langevinized Kalman Temporal-Difference (LKTD) algorithm using SGMCMC.
result LKTD algorithm converges to posterior distribution of deep RL parameters.
New algorithm quantifies uncertainty in regression models for complex data types.
problem Uncertainty quantification in regression models for complex data types.
method Model-free uncertainty quantification algorithm based on conditional depth measures and kernel mean embeddings.
result Provides faster convergence rates and non-asymptotic guarantees for prediction regions.
GenUQ uses generative models to estimate uncertainty in operator learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in stochastic operator models.
method Introduces a measure-theoretic approach with a generative hyper-network.
result Outperforms other UQ methods in various example problems.
CoNBONet improves reliability analysis of complex systems with fast, energy-efficient predictions.
problem Time-dependent reliability analysis of nonlinear systems under stochastic excitations is computationally demanding.
method CoNBONet combines deep operator networks with neuroscience-inspired neuron models for fast, energy-efficient inference.
result CoNBONet provides reliable coverage of failure probabilities with theoretical guarantees.
Develops a neural surrogate for proton dose calculation using Monte Carlo dropout uncertainty.
problem Computational demand in proton therapy workflows requiring repeated evaluations.
method Integrates Monte Carlo dropout into a neural network surrogate for fast, differentiable dose predictions and uncertainty quantification.
result Shows significant speedups over MC while retaining uncertainty information.
Novel approach for estimating conditional expectations using Bayesian quadrature.
problem Estimating conditional expectations with costly evaluations.
method Probabilistic numerical methods incorporating prior smoothness knowledge.
result Fast convergence rate and uncertainty quantification.
Simplifies IV regression for high-dimensional instruments.
problem Nonlinear instrumental variable regression with high-dimensional instruments.
method Combines kernelized IV methods with an adaptive regression algorithm.
result Faster convergence and adaptability to feature dimensionality.
A framework learns multiscale dynamics from single trajectories using normalizing flows.
problem Learning effective stochastic dynamics from single observed paths of slow variables.
method Data-driven approach based on coupled multiscale SDEs, stochastic averaging, and normalizing flows for density modeling.
result Scalable approach to capturing epistemic uncertainty in multiscale systems.
A new method optimizes complex engineering designs under uncertainty efficiently.
problem Optimizing large, uncertain engineering designs with limited resources.
method Multi-level informed optimization via decomposed Kriging.
result Significantly faster and more accurate optimization compared to state-of-the-art methods.
UA-SABI uses surrogates to speed up Bayesian inference for expensive models.
problem Inference for computationally expensive models is slow and uncertain.
method Combines surrogate modeling with Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) to propagate uncertainties.
result Reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for expensive models is achieved.
Stochastic image reconstruction is a key part of modern digital rock physics and materials analysis that aims to create numerous representative samples of material micro-structures for upscaling, numerical computation of effective properties and uncertainty quantification. We present a method of three-dimensional stoch…
Efficient method for high confidence level inference using parallel stochastic optimization.
problem Uncertainty quantification for online estimation.
method Small number of independent multi-runs to construct t-based confidence intervals.
result Rigorous theoretical guarantee for exact coverage of confidence intervals.
Neural point estimators improve parameter estimation from replicated data.
problem Making inference from replicated data in weakly-identified and highly-parameterised models.
method Permutation-invariant neural networks for likelihood-free parameter estimation.
result Neural point estimators can quickly and optimally estimate parameters.