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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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74149223297 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for fast prior

Meta-learning bounds derived using PAC-Bayes theory for improved generalization.

problem Uncertainty in generalization performance for meta-learning with new tasks.
method PAC-Bayes relative entropy bounds and empirical risk minimization (ERM) method.
result Competitive generalization performance and rapid convergence with data-dependent prior.

Develops a fast variational approximation for high-dimensional empirical Bayes posteriors.

problem Optimal posterior computation in high-dimensional settings with prior tails effect.
method Variational approximation of empirical Bayes posterior with data-driven centers and thin-tailed conjugate priors.
result Retains optimal concentration rate properties and superior performance compared to existing methods.

Fast Bayesian inference with adaptable priors for real-time applications.

problem Intractable exact posterior computation limits Bayesian inference's adoption.
method Distribution Transformer architecture that learns mappings between priors and posteriors.
result Significant reduction in computation time from minutes to milliseconds.

Bayesian hierarchical models are increasing popular in economics. When using hierarchical models, it is useful not only to calculate posterior expectations, but also to measure the robustness of these expectations to reasonable alternative prior choices. We use variational Bayes and linear response methods to provide f…

2016-06-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified derivation of PAC-Bayes and MI bounds for general VC classes with fast rates.

problem Generalization bounds for machine learning models with VC classes.
method Unified derivation of conditional PAC-Bayesian and mutual information bounds, including MAC-Bayesian bounds.
result Nontrivial bounds for general VC classes and faster rates for specific conditions.

New method finds all thin film structures from reflectometry data.

problem Computational prohibitive for standard algorithms, leading to unreliable analysis.
method Prior-Amortized Neural Posterior Estimation (PANPE) combining simulation-based inference and adaptive priors.
result Identifies all realistic structures in seconds, setting new standards in reflectometry.

We consider a single security market based on a limit order book and two investors, with different speeds of trade execution. If the fast investor can front-run the slower investor, we show that this allows the fast trader to obtain risk free profits, but that these profits cannot be scaled. We derive the fast trader's…

2011-10-21abs ↗pdf ↗

New learning dynamics achieve fast convergence in games without needing to know utility scales.

problem Fast convergence guarantees in learning games require prior knowledge of utility scales.
method Developed scale-free and scale-invariant learning dynamics using optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader with adaptive learning rates and clipping techniques.
result Achieved fast convergence rates to Nash and correlated equilibria without prior utility scale knowledge.

Flexible empirical Bayes for large-scale multiple linear regression.

problem Large-scale multiple linear regression with flexible priors and efficient computation.
method Adaptive shrinkage priors combined with variational approximations for hyperparameter estimation.
result The posterior mean from the empirical Bayes method solves a penalized regression problem.

We compute the expected value of the Kullback-Leibler divergence to various fundamental statistical models with respect to canonical priors on the probability simplex. We obtain closed formulas for the expected model approximation errors, depending on the dimension of the models and the cardinalities of their sample sp…

2012-07-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Patch priors have become an important component of image restoration. A powerful approach in this category of restoration algorithms is the popular Expected Patch Log-Likelihood (EPLL) algorithm. EPLL uses a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) prior learned on clean image patches as a way to regularize degraded patches. In th…

2018-02-05abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper introduces a novel theoretically sound approach for the celebrated CMA-ES algorithm. Assuming the parameters of the multi variate normal distribution for the minimum follow a conjugate prior distribution, we derive their optimal update at each iteration step. Not only provides this Bayesian framework a justi…

2019-04-02abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the problem of learning the inhomogeneous intensity of a counting process, under a sparse segmentation assumption. We introduce a weighted total-variation penalization, using data-driven weights that correctly scale the penalization along the observation interval. We prove that this leads to a sharp tuning …

2015-07-02abs ↗pdf ↗

GS-B3^3SE improves label shift estimation by smoothing priors on a graph.

problem Label shift adaptation when source and target distributions share conditional but not marginal probabilities.
method Graph-Smoothed Bayesian Black-Box Shift Estimator (GS-B3^3SE) places Laplacian-Gaussian priors on log-priors and confusion-matrix columns tied by a label-similarity graph.
result GS-B3^3SE produces a tractable posterior with HMC or Newton-CG schemes, proving identifiability, contraction, and robustness.

We consider the problem of fast time-series data clustering. Building on previous work modeling the correlation-based Hamiltonian of spin variables we present an updated fast non-expensive Agglomerative Likelihood Clustering algorithm (ALC). The method replaces the optimized genetic algorithm based approach (f-SPC) wit…

2019-08-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Recently, Mahoney and Orecchia demonstrated that popular diffusion-based procedures to compute a quick \emph{approximation} to the first nontrivial eigenvector of a data graph Laplacian \emph{exactly} solve certain regularized Semi-Definite Programs (SDPs). In this paper, we extend that result by providing a statistica…

2011-10-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian l0l_0-regularized least squares is a variable selection technique for high dimensional predictors. The challenge is optimizing a non-convex objective function via search over model space consisting of all possible predictor combinations. Spike-and-slab (a.k.a. Bernoulli-Gaussian) priors are the gold standard f…

2017-05-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved RL algorithm stabilizes unknown linear systems with polynomial regret.

problem Learning and stabilizing unknown linear dynamical systems.
method Proposes an algorithm with an improved exploration strategy for fast stabilization.
result Achieves ildeO(T) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}) regret after TT time steps.

A fast method estimates Gaussian mixture components without iterative fitting.

problem Estimating the number of components in high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures.
method Center data, compute singular values, and count above a threshold.
result The estimator consistently recovers the true number of components under mild separation condition.

In this publication, we combine two Bayesian non-parametric models: the Gaussian Process (GP) and the Dirichlet Process (DP). Our innovation in the GP model is to introduce a variation on the GP prior which enables us to model structured time-series data, i.e. data containing groups where we wish to model inter- and in…

2014-01-08abs ↗pdf ↗

We give a fast oblivious L2-embedding of ARnxdA\in \mathbb{R}^{n x d} to BRrxdB\in \mathbb{R}^{r x d} satisfying (1ε)Ax22Bx22<=(1+ε)Ax22.(1-\varepsilon)\|A x\|_2^2 \le \|B x\|_2^2 <= (1+\varepsilon) \|Ax\|_2^2. Our embedding dimension rr equals dd, a constant independent of the distortion ε\varepsilon. We use as a black-box any L2-embedding $Π…

2019-09-27abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm reduces regret in multi-armed bandit problems with Gaussian rewards.

problem Optimizing decisions in multi-armed bandit problems with Gaussian rewards.
method Proposed TSCG and UTSCG algorithms using Thompson Sampling with Gaussian prior.
result Achieved lower regret bounds for optimal arm selection.

GP model for time series forecasting with priors.

problem Automatic selection of optimal kernels and reliable estimation of hyperparameters.
method Fixed composition of kernels, automatic relevance determination (ARD), empirical Bayes priors.
result GP model is more accurate than state-of-the-art models.