New method reduces high-dimensional data to key features.
problem Challenges of high-dimensional data analysis and interpretability.
method Randomized search to produce subspaces, ensemble of models for variable selection.
result Outperforms existing methods in prediction and variable selection.
Paper proposes a tensor data model for incomplete imaging data.
problem Prognostics models for incomplete imaging data.
method Supervised tensor dimension reduction with TTF supervision and optimization.
result Model effectively extracts low-dimensional features from incomplete data.
New safety measure reduces failures in learning systems.
problem Challenges in learning to control physical systems due to failures.
method Implicitly captures system dynamics to failure states using Gaussian processes for model-free active sampling.
result Significant reduction in failures during learning with estimated safety measure.
New method avoids failures in physics-constrained systems using active learning.
problem Handling fatal failures in systems governed by physics constraints.
method Develops a novel active learning method that considers implicit physics constraints.
result Achieves zero-failure in composite fuselage assembly process without explicit failure regions.
Proposes a federated learning approach for industrial asset failure prediction.
problem Lack of data and privacy concerns in industrial prognostics.
method Two-stage federated learning: dimension reduction and parameter estimation.
result Validated the approach using simulated and real data.
DFMR improves robustness of learning finite mixture models in distributed settings.
problem Learning finite mixture models in distributed settings with Byzantine failures.
method DFMR leverages pairwise L2 distances to filter and retain local estimates, ensuring robust aggregation.
result DFMR achieves optimal convergence rate and asymptotic equivalence to global maximum likelihood estimate.
Theory of symplectic reduction in infinite dimensions developed.
problem Challenges in symplectic reduction in infinite dimensions.
method Normal form of momentum map for infinite-dimensional equivariant maps.
result Theory of singular symplectic reduction in infinite dimensions.
A new dimension reduction method based on Gaussian finite mixtures is proposed as an extension to sliced inverse regression (SIR). The model-based SIR (MSIR) approach allows the main limitation of SIR to be overcome, i.e., failure in the presence of regression symmetric relationships, without the need to impose further…
Corrects an earlier theorem, establishing new facts about information structures and non-anticipative aggregation.
problem The nature of information structures and their impact on non-anticipative aggregation.
method Local reduction of pricing to the natural price filtration, stability properties, and the establishment of new facts.
result Non-anticipative signals can reveal future information, requiring dependence among signals (masking relation) and not independence.
Deep learning predicts heart failure readmission from clinical notes.
problem Predicting and preventing heart failure readmission.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) trained on clinical notes.
result Deep learning models outperform traditional machine learning methods in readmission prediction.
This work explains RL policies using causal models, revealing important patterns and failures.
problem Understanding why RL policies succeed or fail in complex, high-dimensional systems.
method Developed a nonlinear Causal Model Reduction framework to learn simplified causal models from RL policy actions and rewards.
result The approach can uncover important behavioral patterns and failure modes in trained RL policies.
A simple banking network model is proposed which features multiple waves of bank defaults and is analytically solvable in the limiting case of an infinitely large homogeneous network. The model is a collection of nodes representing individual banks; associated with each node is a balance sheet consisting of assets and …
We introduce an algorithm to locate contours of functions that are expensive to evaluate. The problem of locating contours arises in many applications, including classification, constrained optimization, and performance analysis of mechanical and dynamical systems (reliability, probability of failure, stability, etc.).…
Reinforcement learning (RL) constitutes a promising solution for alleviating the problem of traffic congestion. In particular, deep RL algorithms have been shown to produce adaptive traffic signal controllers that outperform conventional systems. However, in order to be reliable in highly dynamic urban areas, such cont…
Over-the-counter markets are at the center of the postcrisis global reform of the financial system. We show how the size and structure of such markets can undergo rapid and extensive changes when participants engage in portfolio compression, a post-trade netting technology. Tightly-knit and concentrated trading structu…
The U.S. water distribution system contains thousands of miles of pipes constructed from different materials, and of various sizes, and age. These pipes suffer from physical, environmental, structural and operational stresses, causing deterioration which eventually leads to their failure. Pipe deterioration results in …
Economics tool predicts failure times in reliability systems.
problem Predicting optimal failure times in weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems with heterogeneous component failure.
method Using rational expectations to analyze and predict failure times in reliability systems with heterogeneous component failure.
result Different measures are optimal for predicting system failure depending on component failure distributions.
Unified model predicts multi-mode failure with multi-sensor data.
problem Independent failure mode and RUL prediction ignores inherent relationship.
method Hierarchical Bayesian framework with Cox model, Gaussian process, and multinomial distributions.
result Robust uncertainty quantification and accurate prediction of multi-mode failure.
Framework classifies machine learning failures into intentional and unintentional.
problem Understanding and preventing failures in machine learning systems.
method Developed a taxonomy of machine learning failure modes.
result Stakeholders found the framework useful for discussing machine learning failures.
GAN-FP uses GANs to predict equipment failures from imbalanced data.
problem Accurately predicting equipment failures with limited data and high imbalance.
method GAN-FP employs two GAN networks to generate and classify imbalanced data, optimizing a weighted loss objective and a consistency GAN.
result GAN-FP outperforms traditional methods in imbalanced failure prediction.
Parametric t-SNE improves generalization for streaming data.
problem Training neural networks for t-SNE objective function fails due to gradient exploding.
method Applied gradient clipping to solve gradient exploding problem.
result Parametric t-SNE achieves quality compatible with non-parametric t-SNE while generalizing to new data.
PAGER detects failures in deep regression models using a new framework.
problem Detecting failures in deep regression models.
method PAGER uses a combination of epistemic uncertainty and manifold non-conformity scores.
result PAGER accurately characterizes and detects failures in deep regressors.
Risk Advisor predicts and mitigates ML deployment failures.
problem Predicting and mitigating test-time failure risks of ML systems.
method Post-hoc meta-learner for estimating failure risks and uncertainties.
result Reliably predicts deployment-time failure risks across various ML models.
A method to minimize regret in multi-agent control systems with adversarial disturbances.
problem Optimal control of dynamical systems with adversarial disturbances and multiple agents.
method Reduction from online convex optimization to a distributed algorithm for multi-agent control.
result The resulting distributed algorithm has low regret relative to the optimal precomputed joint policy.
CalNF models rare failures with limited data, improving safety in autonomous systems.
problem Challenges in modeling and debugging rare safety-critical failures due to limited data.
method CalNF, a self-regularized framework for posterior learning from limited data.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance on data-limited failure modeling and inverse problems.
This work improves safety validation of autonomous vehicles by finding interpretable failures.
problem Finding interpretable failures of autonomous systems in simulation.
method Signal temporal logic expressions optimized for high likelihood and human interpretability.
result Our methodology finds more interpretable failures with higher likelihood compared to baseline approaches.
Framework predicts remaining useful life of DSH subsystems under unknown failure modes.
problem Predicting remaining useful life of DSH subsystems with unknown failure modes.
method Unsupervised framework using mixture of Gaussian regressions and Expectation-Maximization algorithm.
result Improved prediction accuracy and interpretability of RUL.
The paper calculates the likelihood of a financial market failure involving multiple major banks.
problem Estimating the probability of a market failure involving multiple globally important banks.
method Multivariate Cox process across G-SIBs, deriving various theorems on market failure probabilities.
result The probability of a market failure increases with the number of G-SIBs and is inevitable if there are too many.
Paper proposes a method to predict disk failures using multi-layer domain adaptive learning.
problem Traditional machine learning models struggle to predict disk failures due to limited data.
method Multi-layer domain adaptive learning with source and target domains.
result The proposed method improves failure prediction accuracy on disk data with few failure samples.
We aim to predict and explain service failures in supply-chain networks, more precisely among last-mile pickup and delivery services to customers. We analyze a dataset of 500,000 services using (1) supervised classification with Random Forests, and (2) Association Rules. Our classifier reaches an average sensitivity of…
GE finds failures in autonomous systems without domain heuristics.
problem Finding failures in autonomous systems without domain-specific heuristics.
method Adaptive stress testing using go-explore (GE) algorithm.
result GE finds failures in scenarios other RL techniques cannot solve.
One of the key issues for imitation learning lies in making policy learned from limited samples to generalize well in the whole state-action space. This problem is much more severe in high-dimensional state environments, such as game playing with raw pixel inputs. Under this situation, even state-of-the-art adversary-b…
Method distinguishes between failures and domain shifts in industrial data streams.
problem Confusing domain shifts with failures in industrial data.
method Modified Page-Hinkley changepoint detector and supervised domain-adaptation-based anomaly detection.
result Allows differentiation between failures and domain shifts.
System predicts respiratory failure up to 8 hours early.
problem Early detection of respiratory failure in ICU patients.
method Machine learning on ICU patient monitoring data.
result System outperforms traditional clinical decision-making.
This paper addresses the problem of evaluating learning systems in safety critical domains such as autonomous driving, where failures can have catastrophic consequences. We focus on two problems: searching for scenarios when learned agents fail and assessing their probability of failure. The standard method for agent e…
In this paper we present a Recurrent neural networks (RNN) based architecture that achieves an AUCROC of 0.9147 for predicting the onset of Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) 15 months in advance using a 12-month observation window on a large cohort of 216,394 patients. We believe this to be the largest study in CHF onset …
DeepSIP predicts network failures' impact using CNN from syslog and traffic data.
problem Predicting service impact from network failures.
method Temporal multimodal CNN for predicting time to recovery and traffic loss.
result DeepSIP reduced prediction error by approximately 50%.
New insights link diverse statistical problems via secret leakage planted clique.
problem Statistical-computational gaps in inference problems.
method Secret leakage planted clique as a new hardness assumption for reductions.
result Establishes tight statistical-computational tradeoffs for various problems.
Deep learning improves oilfield equipment maintenance and reduces downtime.
problem Predicting equipment failure in oilrigs to minimize downtime.
method Developed and tested neural networks on oilfield datasets, using data processing and feature extraction.
result Deep learning can predict oilfield equipment failure with reduced downtime.
RODMAN improves ML-based disk failure prediction accuracy in cloud environments.
problem Imperfect data quality in real-world cloud environments degrades ML-based disk failure prediction accuracy.
method RODMAN uses three data preprocessing techniques: failure-type filtering, spline-based data filling, and automated pre-failure backtracking.
result RODMAN significantly improves prediction accuracy compared to no preprocessing.
Two BO methods improve reliability optimization for rare failures.
problem Maximizing reliability of designs subject to random perturbations.
method Bayesian optimization with Thompson sampling and knowledge gradient.
result Proposed methods outperform existing techniques in extreme failure probability scenarios.
New method finds failures in high-fidelity simulators with fewer steps.
problem Finding failures in high-fidelity simulators is expensive and impractical.
method Adaptive stress testing with backward algorithm adaptation from low-fidelity to high-fidelity.
result Significantly fewer high-fidelity simulation steps needed to find failures.
Entropy-based GP adaptive design improves failure probability estimation.
problem Limited accuracy in failure probability estimation due to model evaluation costs.
method Entropy-based Gaussian process (GP) adaptive design combined with multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS).
result More accurate failure probability estimates and higher confidence.
Geometric derivation of quantum dynamics from Lie group actions.
problem Deriving quantum dynamics from geometric principles.
method Euler-Poincaré reduction on adjoint-coupled semidirect products.
result Reproduces the Lindblad equation from geometric reduction.
Brain uses synaptic failure to sample from posterior distributions.
problem Bayesian inference in the brain's probabilistic computations.
method Adapting synaptic failure to sample posterior predictive distributions.
result Synaptic failure enables sampling of complete posterior predictive distributions.
Study constructs balanced datasets for seismic failure prediction.
problem Imbalanced datasets limit machine learning performance in seismic failure prediction.
method Framework with three steps: GMF identification, probability density estimation, and sample transformation.
result Framework improves machine learning performance in seismic failure mode prediction.
Proposes a deep neural network for early disk drive failure prediction.
problem Early prediction of disk drive failure using multivariate time series sensor data.
method Enriched features derived from sensor data through transformations, combined with ensemble learning and deep neural network architecture.
result Significantly improved classification accuracy in predicting disk drive failure.
Automatic methods for generating state-of-the-art neural network architectures without human experts have generated significant attention recently. This is because of the potential to remove human experts from the design loop which can reduce costs and decrease time to model deployment. Neural architecture search (NAS)…