The paper calculates the likelihood of a financial market failure involving multiple major banks.
problem Estimating the probability of a market failure involving multiple globally important banks.
method Multivariate Cox process across G-SIBs, deriving various theorems on market failure probabilities.
result The probability of a market failure increases with the number of G-SIBs and is inevitable if there are too many.
Two BO methods improve reliability optimization for rare failures.
problem Maximizing reliability of designs subject to random perturbations.
method Bayesian optimization with Thompson sampling and knowledge gradient.
result Proposed methods outperform existing techniques in extreme failure probability scenarios.
We develop a new method to estimate failure probabilities in complex systems.
problem Estimating failure probabilities in safety-critical autonomous systems is challenging due to the rarity of failures and large state spaces.
method We propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm that minimizes forward Kullback-Leibler divergence and uses Markov score ascent methods.
result Our method provides more accurate failure probability estimates than existing techniques.
Entropy-based GP adaptive design improves failure probability estimation.
problem Limited accuracy in failure probability estimation due to model evaluation costs.
method Entropy-based Gaussian process (GP) adaptive design combined with multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS).
result More accurate failure probability estimates and higher confidence.
Active Kriging Monte Carlo simulation method with conformal certification for failure probability estimation
problem Failure probability estimation in structural reliability analysis
method Active learning framework with conformal prediction
result Improved uncertainty quantification and reliability of failure probability estimates
A new machine learning method calculates failure probability efficiently and accurately.
problem Computing the probability of failure for complex systems.
method Penalized Profile Support Vector Machine with adaptive sampling and clustering.
result The method minimizes model evaluations while preserving decision boundary geometry.
Improves FI-PINNs by combining re-sampling and subset simulation for better failure probability estimation.
problem Estimating failure probability in physics-informed neural networks (PINNs).
method Adaptive sampling with re-sampling and subset simulation, using cosine-annealing for uniform to adaptive transition.
result Significant improvement in estimating failure probability and generating new training points in the failure region.
A new method estimates rare failure events in complex systems.
problem Estimating the probability of rare failure events in non-linear systems.
method Stochastic Spectral Embedding (SSE) combined with modifications for efficient rare event estimation.
result Rare failure probability decomposed into conditional probabilities for easier computation.
This paper addresses the problem of evaluating learning systems in safety critical domains such as autonomous driving, where failures can have catastrophic consequences. We focus on two problems: searching for scenarios when learned agents fail and assessing their probability of failure. The standard method for agent e…
Adaptive PINNs improve accuracy by adding points where solutions are uncertain.
problem Inadequate sampling in PINNs leads to inaccurate solutions, especially near singularities.
method FI-PINNs use failure probability to dynamically add points, improving numerical accuracy.
result FI-PINNs achieve better accuracy through adaptive sampling, as proven by rigorous error bounds.
Brain uses synaptic failure to sample from posterior distributions.
problem Bayesian inference in the brain's probabilistic computations.
method Adapting synaptic failure to sample posterior predictive distributions.
result Synaptic failure enables sampling of complete posterior predictive distributions.
DG separates successes and failures by gating updates with advantage and surprisal.
problem Negative learning from surprising data in distributed reinforcement learning.
method DG gates each update with the product of advantage and surprisal, suppressing failures and preserving successes.
result DG outperforms other methods in various challenging reinforcement learning tasks.
New framework assesses extreme errors in machine learning models.
problem Current validation methods fail to quantify extreme errors in high-stakes domains.
method Uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate worst-case failures.
result Establishes EVT as a fundamental tool for assessing model reliability.
Study constructs balanced datasets for seismic failure prediction.
problem Imbalanced datasets limit machine learning performance in seismic failure prediction.
method Framework with three steps: GMF identification, probability density estimation, and sample transformation.
result Framework improves machine learning performance in seismic failure mode prediction.
Locally learned synaptic failure enables complete Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference in neural networks.
method Biologically constrained neural network with synaptic failure and lateral inhibition.
result Synaptic failure allows sampling from both epistemic and aleatoric distributions.
New method calculates sensitivity of system failure probability.
problem Difficulty in computing sensitivity of failure probability.
method Monte Carlo strategy using response gradient and kernel smoothing.
result Single Monte Carlo run for sensitivity estimates.
Assessing reliably the confidence of a deep neural network and predicting its failures is of primary importance for the practical deployment of these models. In this paper, we propose a new target criterion for model confidence, corresponding to the True Class Probability (TCP). We show how using the TCP is more suited…
We derive a closed form solution for an optimal control problem related to an interbank lending schemes subject to terminal probability constraints on the failure of banks which are interconnected through a financial network. The derived solution applies to a real banks network by obtaining a general solution when the …
While machine learning systems show high success rate in many complex tasks, research shows they can also fail in very unexpected situations. Rise of machine learning products in safety-critical industries cause an increase in attention in evaluating model robustness and estimating failure probability in machine learni…
While autonomous vehicle (AV) technology has shown substantial progress, we still lack tools for rigorous and scalable testing. Real-world testing, the de-facto evaluation method, is dangerous to the public. Moreover, due to the rare nature of failures, billions of miles of driving are needed to statisticall…
Method quantifies sensitivity of reliability analysis to uncertainty sources.
problem Computational expense in reliability analysis of complex models.
method Gaussian process surrogate model, active learning, sensitivity analysis.
result Reduces main source of error in estimating rare event probabilities.
The goal of this paper is to prove a result conjectured in Föllmer and Schachermayer [FS07], even in slightly more general form. Suppose that S is a continuous semimartingale and satisfies a large deviations estimate; this is a particular growth condition on the mean-variance tradeoff process of S. We show that S then …
Credit networks represent a way of modeling trust between entities in a network. Nodes in the network print their own currency and trust each other for a certain amount of each other's currency. This allows the network to serve as a decentralized payment infrastructure---arbitrary payments can be routed through the net…
New sampling bounds improve uniform coverage verification in machine learning.
problem Conservative bounds in classical coverage analyses at small failure probabilities.
method Variance-based analysis of uniform random sampling on a d-dimensional unit hypercube. result Sample complexity bound with logarithmic dependence on failure probability.
When will a server fail catastrophically in an industrial datacenter? Is it possible to forecast these failures so preventive actions can be taken to increase the reliability of a datacenter? To answer these questions, we have studied what are probably the largest, publicly available datacenter traces, containing more …
Forward-Euler fails for simulating Wasserstein gradient flows with KL divergence.
problem Simulating Wasserstein gradient flows with forward-Euler discretization fails for KL divergence.
method Forward-Euler discretization for Wasserstein gradient flows with KL divergence.
result Forward-Euler discretization can be incorrect for Wasserstein gradient flows with KL divergence.
Revisits PPO design choices, exposing failure modes and proposing alternatives.
problem Failure modes of standard PPO in new environments.
method Revisits standard PPO design choices, exposes failure modes, and proposes alternative approaches.
result Alternative design choices prevent failure modes in new environments.
The 2008 financial crisis illustrated the need for a thorough, functional understanding of systemic risk in strongly interconnected financial structures. Dynamic processes on complex networks being intrinsically difficult, most recent studies of this problem have relied on numerical simulations. Here we report analytic…
New bounds on trajectory safety in training models with Langevin Dynamics.
problem Bounding the probability of a model's trajectory staying away from a designated failure region.
method Analyzes Langevin dynamics on smooth, strongly convex loss landscapes, introducing shape-free and local relaxation bounds.
result The in-set probability relaxes to the static value after a burn-in time of order d, using only the global spectral gap of the loss.
Paper introduces a novel method for estimating model confidence in deep neural classifiers.
problem Reliable confidence estimation for deep neural classifiers in safety-critical applications.
method Proposes a novel target criterion (true class probability) and learns it from data with an auxiliary model.
result The proposed method outperforms strong baselines in various tasks and network architectures.
K-means fails catastrophically in high dimensions, Hartigan's avoids it.
problem K-means algorithm's failure in high-dimensional data.
method Proof of k-means failure and Hartigan's algorithm success.
result Hartigan's algorithm avoids the catastrophic failure of k-means in high dimensions.
Proposes a federated learning approach for RUL prediction from nonparametric degradation and failure signals.
problem Cost-effective RUL prediction from limited, non-shared CM signals with unknown parametric forms.
method Joint modeling of nonlinear degradation signals and failure events using federated learning.
result Superior RUL prediction compared to alternatives, validated through simulations and real data.
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure---systemic ri…
Machine learning models fail due to concept and data drift during pandemic.
problem Machine learning models trained before the pandemic are unreliable during the pandemic.
method Detect and diagnose concept and data drift in models.
result Model resilience and robustness are crucial for future predictions.
Network analysis improves risk assessment for surety bonds.
problem Network effects in surety bonds increase risk assessment complexity.
method Modelled contractor network as directed graph, extended Friedkin-Johnsen model with stochastic process.
result Network effects increase average risk for surety organizations.
Link invariants fail to detect most links with high probability.
problem Detecting specific link types using invariants.
method Mathematical proof and big-data analysis.
result Link invariants have a zero probability of detecting alternating links.
In survival analysis, estimating the failure time distribution is an important and difficult task, since usually the data is subject to censoring. Specifically, in this paper we consider current status data, a type of data where all of the observations are censored. The format of the data is such that the failure time …
The aim of the present paper is to develop a strategy for solving reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problems that remains applicable when the performance models are expensive to evaluate. Starting with the premise that simulation-based approaches are not affordable for such problems, and that the most-probab…
Neural Networks are being integrated into safety critical systems, e.g., perception systems for autonomous vehicles, which require trained networks to perform safely in novel scenarios. It is challenging to verify neural networks because their decisions are not explainable, they cannot be exhaustively tested, and finit…
We give the first efficient algorithm for learning the structure of an Ising model that tolerates independent failures; that is, each entry of the observed sample is missing with some unknown probability p. Our algorithm matches the essentially optimal runtime and sample complexity bounds of recent work for learning Is…
Structural reliability methods aim at computing the probability of failure of systems with respect to some prescribed performance functions. In modern engineering such functions usually resort to running an expensive-to-evaluate computational model (e.g. a finite element model). In this respect simulation methods, whic…
Margin trading in which investors purchase shares with money borrowed from brokers is blamed to be a major cause of the 2015 Chinese stock market crash. We propose a cascading failure model and examine how an increase in margin trading increases share price vulnerability. The model is based on a bipartite graph of inve…
New method identifies subgroups in censored data.
problem Identifying meaningful patterns in heterogeneous populations.
method Combining inverse probability weighting, M-estimation, and concave pairwise fusion penalization.
result Robust approach for censored data under heterogeneous AFT models.
Study uses satellite data to predict tailings dam collapse risk.
problem Detecting early signs of tailings dam instability.
method Spectral analysis of satellite InSAR displacement time series data.
result Algorithm detects risk milestones up to 5 months before dam collapse.
This paper presents a method to efficiently estimate rare event probabilities using a combination of high and low-fidelity models.
problem Estimating the probability of failure for complex systems using high-fidelity models is expensive and inaccurate for rare events.
method The paper introduces a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy using active learning and subset simulation to merge high and low-fidelity models.
result The method significantly reduces computational cost while maintaining high accuracy in estimating rare event probabilities.
Extends CRR model with q-binomial random walks for asset pricing.
problem Asset pricing with time-varying probabilities and trend parameters.
method Introduces a q-binomial extension of the CRR model with non-self-similar binomial trees.
result Convergence to Black-Scholes formula with rate O(N^(-1/2)).
One of the key challenges in predictive maintenance is to predict the impending downtime of an equipment with a reasonable prediction horizon so that countermeasures can be put in place. Classically, this problem has been posed in two different ways which are typically solved independently: (1) Remaining useful life (R…
K-means fails in high dimensions with noise and few samples.
problem Clustering in high-dimensional data with noise and limited samples.
method Simple Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) analysis.
result Almost every partition becomes a fixed point of k-means in high dimensions.