New methods speed up fitting for large datasets with noisy observations.
problem Fitting large datasets with Gaussian noise and known covariance.
method Two minibatch variants of extreme deconvolution, online EM algorithm, and gradient-based optimisation.
result Methods can scale to larger models and fit larger datasets faster.
Algorithm improves multi-agent learning with noisy observations.
problem Challenges in learning optimal policies with noisy, weakly correlated observations.
method Enhanced multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient algorithm (MADDPG-M) with a communication medium.
result Algorithm performs well in complex, non-stationary environments, offering significant performance gains.
New acquisition function for extreme rewards in bandits.
problem Online decision making with extreme payoffs in multi-armed bandits.
method Modeling payoffs as Gaussian processes and using a novel UCB acquisition function.
result Demonstrated benefits across synthetic and real-world benchmarks.
Algorithm learns graph structure and weights from noisy epidemic cascade data.
problem Learning graph structure and weights from noisy infection times of multiple epidemics.
method Developed algorithms for two noisy settings: limited-noise and extreme-noise, with polynomial time complexity.
result Optimal sample complexity and efficient algorithms for various graph types.
Proposes a new model for noisy labels considering multiple labelers and adversarial attacks.
problem Real-world noisy label models with multiple labelers and adversarial attacks.
method Labeler-dependent noise model with adversarial attack vectors.
result State-of-the-art approaches for learning from noisy labels are defeated by adversarial label attacks.
Deep Learning (DL) methods have been transforming computer vision with innovative adaptations to other domains including climate change. For DL to pervade Science and Engineering (S&E) applications where risk management is a core component, well-characterized uncertainty estimates must accompany predictions. However, S…
Various problems in data analysis and statistical genetics call for recovery of a column-sparse, low-rank matrix from noisy observations. We propose ReFACTor, a simple variation of the classical Truncated Singular Value Decomposition (TSVD) algorithm. In contrast to previous sparse principal component analysis (PCA) al…
A corrected EI acquisition function handles noisy observations in Bayesian optimization.
problem Noisy observations in Bayesian optimization.
method Proposes a modified expected improvement (EI) acquisition function that incorporates covariance information from the Gaussian Process model.
result Achieves a sublinear convergence rate on cumulative regret bound under heteroscedastic observation noise.
Paper studies zero-sum games with noisy observations and identifies equilibrium conditions.
problem Zero-sum games with noisy observations of the leader's actions.
method Analyzes the equilibrium of games with noisy action observability, identifies necessary conditions for uniqueness, and investigates the cardinality of best responses.
result The noisy observations significantly impact the cardinality of the follower's set of best responses, and under certain conditions, this set becomes a singleton almost surely.
Study efficient graph optimization with noisy data.
problem Optimizing functions on graphs with noisy observations.
method Best-arm identification and simulated annealing variants.
result Near-optimal solutions found with small query numbers.
New method learns signals from binary measurements, surpassing existing techniques.
problem Learning signals from noisy, incomplete, and quantized binary measurements.
method Self-supervised learning approach (SSBM) for binary data.
result SSBM outperforms supervised learning and sparse reconstruction methods.
New algorithm recovers labels from noisy categorical data.
problem Recovering latent labels from noisy observations in structured instances.
method Approximate algorithm for graphs with categorical variables.
result Logarithmic dependency of Hamming error to the number of categories.
Extends PD-NJ-ODE to noisy observations and dependent observation times.
problem Predicting continuous-time stochastic processes with irregular and noisy observations.
method Extends PD-NJ-ODE to handle conditional independence and noisy observations.
result Theoretical guarantees and empirical examples for handling noisy observations and dependent observation times.
Develops a method to estimate treatment effects using noisy proxies over time.
problem Estimating individualized treatment effects from noisy proxies of confounders.
method Deconfounding Temporal Autoencoder (DTA) combining autoencoder and causal regularization.
result Improves treatment effect estimates by leveraging noisy proxies and learning hidden confounders.
New method tackles noisy and incomplete observations in reinforcement learning.
problem Noisy and incomplete observations in reinforcement learning with continuous control.
method Model-based approach using surrogate loss function and belief imputation.
result The method outperforms compared methods on benchmark tasks.
Study models extreme skew surges along French Atlantic coast.
problem Appropriate modelling of extreme skew surges for coastal risk management.
method Peak-over-threshold framework, multivariate generalized Pareto distribution, extreme regression framework.
result Reconstructed historical skew surge time series at stations with limited data.
A deep learning method for XML with autoencoder and ranking loss.
problem XML with large label collections, high complexity, inter-label and feature dependencies, and noisy labels.
method Word-vector-based self-attention, ranking-based AutoEncoder architecture.
result Competitive performance on benchmark datasets.
AutoSciDACT detects scientific anomalies in noisy data.
problem Detecting anomalies in large, noisy scientific datasets.
method Contrastive pre-training for low-dimensional data representations, two-sample test using NPLM.
result Strong sensitivity to small anomalies across various scientific domains.
Estimates treatment effects in rare extreme events using EVT.
problem Estimating treatment effects in rare, impactful events like extreme climate events.
method Introduces a novel framework using EVT and multivariate regular variation for consistent treatment effect estimation.
result Developed a consistent estimator for extreme treatment effects with rigorous non-asymptotic analysis.
The paper cleans label noise in supervised classification using Bernoulli sampling.
problem Label noise degrades supervised classifier performance.
method Proposes a label noise cleaning method based on Bernoulli random sampling.
result The method separates clean and noisy observations without prior label information.
Estimates user preferences from noisy paired comparisons.
problem Estimating user preferences from noisy paired comparisons.
method Greedy information maximization strategies.
result Superior preference estimation over state-of-the-art methods.
New algorithm for online learning with noisy side observations.
problem Online learning with noisy side feedback and graph-structured dependencies.
method Proposes an algorithm using a weighted directed graph to model dependencies and guarantees a regret bound of O(√α* T).
result Guarantees a regret of O(√α* T) after T rounds, where α* is the effective independence number.
Large-scale recurrent networks have drawn increasing attention recently because of their capabilities in modeling a large variety of real-world phenomena and physical mechanisms. This paper studies how to identify all authentic connections and estimate system parameters of a recurrent network, given a sequence of node …
Deep learning with noisy labels is practically challenging, as the capacity of deep models is so high that they can totally memorize these noisy labels sooner or later during training. Nonetheless, recent studies on the memorization effects of deep neural networks show that they would first memorize training data of cl…
A new method reduces uncertainty in predicting rare extreme events without assuming their presence in training data.
problem Predicting rare and extreme events in complex systems with high uncertainty.
method Extreme Event Aware (e2a or η) learning, which enforces extreme event statistics during training.
result Models generate unprecedented extreme events even when training data lacks extremes.
Study on noisy gradient descent in higher-dimensional minima.
problem Behavior of gradient descent in higher codimension.
method Computer experiments with noisy gradient descent.
result Effects of noise on gradient descent trajectories in higher codimension.
Model predicts unseen climate extremes to inform risk planning.
problem Missing unseen climate extremes in historical records.
method DeepX-GAN model capturing spatial dependence.
result Unseen heat extremes disproportionately threaten vulnerable regions.
New method clusters and visualizes anomalies in complex systems.
problem Identifying simultaneous extreme values in random vectors.
method Mixture model based on multivariate extreme value theory.
result Assigns posterior probabilities for anomaly types and clusters extreme observations.
Study noisy rewards in online decision-making with unknown distributions.
problem Learning optimal decisions in online settings with noisy and unknown reward distributions.
method Proposes algorithms integrating learning and decision-making via LCB thresholding.
result Achieves competitive ratios of 1 - 1/e and 1/2 in various settings.
Introduces RMEE for robust classification, improving MEE's performance in noisy conditions.
problem Improving robustness of MEE criterion for noisy classification.
method Analyzed optimal error distribution, introduced RMEE with half-quadratic optimization.
result RMEE achieves better robustness in noisy conditions compared to original MEE.
New method learns graphical models with latent variables for extreme events.
problem Learning graphical models with latent variables for multivariate extremes.
method Tractable convex program exttt{eglatent} for Hüsler-Reiss models.
result Consistently recovers conditional graph and latent variables.
We address the problem of estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous Markov chain given only noisy, aggregate data. This arises when a population of individuals behave independently according to a Markov chain, but individual sample paths cannot be observed due to limitations of the observation process or the need…
Framework for Granger causality in extreme events.
problem Identifying causal links from extreme events in time series.
method Causal tail coefficient and novel inference method.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods in detecting Granger causality in extremes.
Agents learning to act autonomously in real-world domains must acquire a model of the dynamics of the domain in which they operate. Learning domain dynamics can be challenging, especially where an agent only has partial access to the world state, and/or noisy external sensors. Even in standard STRIPS domains, existing …
This paper approximates Gaussian process emulators with constraints and noisy data.
problem Realistic stochastic emulators with inequality constraints and noisy observations.
method Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods with noise term.
result Improved performance of MC and MCMC samplers with noisy observations and constraints.
DAISI improves data assimilation for complex systems with noisy observations.
problem Limited accuracy of classical DA methods in complex, nonlinear systems.
method Generative models with inverse sampling for flexible probabilistic inference.
result DAISI achieves accurate filtering results in challenging nonlinear systems.
Extends extreme value mixture models to identify changepoints in financial extreme regimes.
problem Inference over financial extreme regimes is affected by threshold choice.
method Extends extreme value mixture models to account for distributional extreme changepoints using MCMC algorithms.
result Inclusion of different extreme regimes improves financial applications compared to static and dynamic approaches.
New approach uses under-trained deep ensembles to learn from noisy labels.
problem Improper labelling hinders reliable generalization in supervised learning.
method Under-trained deep ensembles, each trained on a subset of data, combine to form better labels.
result Significant performance improvement in accuracy and kappa for noisy label tasks.
A new decision tree variant improves linear model performance.
problem Improving decision tree performance on non-linear data.
method Extremely random tree with non-linear data transformation and linear observer.
result Outperforms linear models on benchmark dataset.
In an Ultrafast Extreme Event (or Mini Flash Crash), the price of a traded stock increases or decreases strongly within milliseconds. We present a detailed study of Ultrafast Extreme Events in stock market data. In contrast to popular belief, our analysis suggests that most of the Ultrafast Extreme Events are not prima…
Paper relaxes symmetry conditions for universal feature selection in noisy data.
problem Feature selection in noisy data with weak symmetry.
method Developed a universal feature selection framework using singular value decomposition of canonical dependence matrix.
result Selected features achieve asymptotically optimal error exponents up to a residual term.
Paper proposes a new model for noisy tensor completion.
problem Handling noise in tensor completion.
method Tensor ring nuclear norm (TRNN) and least-squares estimator.
result Effective recovery of noisy incomplete tensor data.
The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal inference studies may require unobserved high-level information which needs to be …
Method learns dynamics from noisy partial observations.
problem Reconstructing stochastic dynamical systems from indirect noisy data.
method Amortized path generation method for nonlinear stochastic filtering.
result Learned conditional path generator quantifies uncertainty.
Study of 2imes2 zero-sum games with noisy observations and commitments.
problem Analyzing 2imes2 zero-sum games with noisy observations and commitments. method Modeling a 2imes2 zero-sum game with a leader committing to a strategy and a follower observing a noisy version of the leader's action. result Observing the leader's action is either beneficial or immaterial for the follower, and the equilibrium payoff is bounded.
Thompson Sampling tackles noisy context in stochastic bandits.
problem Designing an action policy for noisy, corrupted contexts in stochastic bandits.
method Introducing a Thompson Sampling algorithm for Gaussian bandits with Gaussian context noise, adopting an information-theoretic analysis.
result Demonstrates the Bayesian regret of the proposed algorithm concerning the oracle's action policy.
A model learns successor representations in uncertain environments.
problem Learning effective strategies in partially observable, noisy environments.
method Neurally plausible model using distributional successor features.
result Distributional successor features support reinforcement learning in noisy environments.
Study examines extreme and erratic cryptocurrency behaviour during COVID-19.
problem Analyse extreme and erratic cryptocurrency behaviour during the pandemic.
method Analyze distribution extremities and structural breaks in 51 cryptocurrencies.
result Identify cryptocurrencies with most irregular extreme and erratic behaviour.