Exponential distribution is ubiquitous in the framework of multi-agent systems. An alternative approach with an economic motivation to derive the exponential distribution in the framework of iterations in the space of distributions is disclosed.
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48 results for “exponential distribution”
Exponential family distributions are highly useful in machine learning since their calculation can be performed efficiently through natural parameters. The exponential family has recently been extended to the t-exponential family, which contains Student-t distributions as family members and thus allows us to handle noi…
We study tilting subweibull distributions and their tail behavior.
problem Understanding tail behavior of subweibull distributions.
method Alternative characterizations and conditions for tail behavior preservation.
result Conditions for tail behavior preservation after exponential tilting.
Exponential distribution of financial returns at mesoscopic time lags: a new stylized factcond-mat.stat-mech
We study the probability distribution of stock returns at mesoscopic time lags (return horizons) ranging from about an hour to about a month. While at shorter microscopic time lags the distribution has power-law tails, for mesoscopic times the bulk of the distribution (more than 99% of the probability) follows an expon…
The paper introduces exponential-wrapped distributions on symmetric spaces for better data modeling.
problem Challenges in statistical modeling due to curvature of data spaces.
method Construction and use of exponential-wrapped distributions on affine locally symmetric spaces.
result Exponential-wrapped distributions on symmetric spaces have useful properties for practical use.
Finite-Time Regret of Thompson Sampling Algorithms for Exponential Family Multi-Armed Banditsstat.ML
New Thompson sampling algorithm reduces regret for exponential family bandits.
problem Minimizing regret in multi-armed bandit problems with exponential family rewards.
method Proposes ExpTS and ExpTS algorithms using novel sampling distributions.
result Minimizes both finite-time and asymptotic regret for exponential family rewards.
Undirected graphical models, or Markov networks, are a popular class of statistical models, used in a wide variety of applications. Popular instances of this class include Gaussian graphical models and Ising models. In many settings, however, it might not be clear which subclass of graphical models to use, particularly…
We analyze waiting times for price changes in a foreign currency exchange rate. Recent empirical studies of high frequency financial data support that trades in financial markets do not follow a Poisson process and the waiting times between trades are not exponentially distributed. Here we show that our data is well ap…
A random walk on a separable, geodesic hyperbolic metric space converges to the boundary with probability one when the step distribution supports two independent loxodromics. In particular, the random walk makes positive linear progress. Progress is known to be linear with exponential decay when …
Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the Value at Risk (VaR) as a possible risk measure requires adequate techniques. One of these techniques is the application of a compound distribution for the aggregates in a portfolio. In this paper, we consider the aggregated loss of Gamma distributed severities and estimate …
A study of the personal income distribution in Australiaphysics.soc-ph
We analyze the data on personal income distribution from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We compare fits of the data to the exponential, log-normal, and gamma distributions. The exponential function gives a good (albeit not perfect) description of 98% of the population in the lower part of the distribution. The lo…
Extends likelihood ratio exponential families to analyze various optimization methods.
problem Analyzing optimization methods like rate-distortion and information bottleneck.
method Linking geometric mixture paths to exponential families and using hypothesis testing.
result Provides a common mathematical framework for understanding these methods.
Exponential distribution is ubiquitous in the framework of multi-agent systems. Usually, it appears as an equilibrium state in the asymptotic time evolution of statistical systems. It has been explained from very different perspectives. In statistical physics, it is obtained from the principle of maximum entropy. In th…
In the context of the Dragulescu-Yakovenko (2000) model, we show that empirical income distribution with truncated datasets, cannot be properly modeled by the one-parameter exponential distribution. However, a truncated version characterized by an exponential distribution with two parameters gives an accurate fit.
VaR-Efficient Portfolios for a Class of Super- and Sub-Exponentially Decaying Assets Return Distributionsphysics.soc-ph
Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their multivariate generalizations with Gaussian copulas, we offer exact formulas for the tails of the distribution of returns of a port…
This paper extends exponential smoothing to distributional time series using Wasserstein distance.
problem Forecasting distributional time series with exponential smoothing.
method Generalized exponential smoothing in Wasserstein space, with consistent parameter estimation.
result Wasserstein exponential smoothing outperforms traditional methods in high-frequency financial and electricity demand data.
In simulations of some economic gas-like models, the asymptotic regime shows an exponential wealth distribution, independently of the initial wealth distribution given to the system. The appearance of this statistical equilibrium for this type of gas-like models is explained in a rigorous analytical way.
The Wronskian parameterizes the class of diffusions with a given distribution at a random timemath.PR
We provide a complete characterization of the class of one-dimensional time-homogeneous diffusions consistent with a given law at an exponentially distributed time using classical results in diffusion theory. To illustrate we characterize the class of diffusions with the same distribution as Brownian motion at an expon…
NatPN provides fast, accurate uncertainty estimation for exponential family distributions.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning models.
method NatPN uses Normalizing Flows to fit a single density in a latent space, updating predictions based on likelihood.
result NatPN delivers competitive performance in classification, regression, and count prediction tasks.
Paper proposes SLINK clustering for nonparametric data sequences with improved consistency.
problem Nonparametric clustering of data sequences from unknown distributions.
method Exponentially consistent nonparametric SLINK clustering algorithm.
result SLINK clustering achieves exponential consistency under less strict conditions.
Thompson Sampling has been demonstrated in many complex bandit models, however the theoretical guarantees available for the parametric multi-armed bandit are still limited to the Bernoulli case. Here we extend them by proving asymptotic optimality of the algorithm using the Jeffreys prior for 1-dimensional exponential …
We provide a classification of graphical models according to their representation as subfamilies of exponential families. Undirected graphical models with no hidden variables are linear exponential families (LEFs), directed acyclic graphical models and chain graphs with no hidden variables, including Bayesian networks …
We consider the design of prediction market mechanisms known as automated market makers. We show that we can design these mechanisms via the mold of \emph{exponential family distributions}, a popular and well-studied probability distribution template used in statistics. We give a full development of this relationship a…
In this paper a quantitative analysis of the ruin probability in finite time of discrete risk process with proportional reinsurance and investment of finance surplus is focused on. It is assumed that the total loss on a unit interval has a light-tailed distribution -- exponential distribution and a heavy-tailed distrib…
Paper explores exact recovery of communities in weighted graphs using Gaussian and exponential distributions.
problem Exact recovery of communities in weighted graphs with Gaussian and exponential distributions.
method Introduces a new semi-metric to describe conditions for exact recovery and analyzes conditions for both complete and incomplete graphs.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for exact recovery are asymptotically tight and applicable to both complete and incomplete graphs.
In this paper, a Bayesian inference technique based on Taylor series approximation of the logarithm of the likelihood function is presented. The proposed approximation is devised for the case, where the prior distribution belongs to the exponential family of distributions. The logarithm of the likelihood function is li…
New method for robust PCA with exponential family distributions.
problem Recovering low-rank structure from data matrices with outliers.
method Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers for .
result Demonstrated effectiveness in steel sheet defect detection and crime activity monitoring.
Quantum networks offer exponential communication savings for large machine learning models.
problem Training and inference of large models require efficient communication.
method Quantum encoding and gradient descent for distributed computation.
result Exponential reduction in communication for gradient descent on quantum networks.
The study shows that the visible range from a point on harmonic manifolds follows an exponential distribution.
problem Understanding the visible range from a point on harmonic manifolds.
method Analyzing Poisson Boolean models on harmonic manifolds, focusing on the geometric mechanism of tube volumes around geodesic segments.
result The visible range from a point on harmonic manifolds follows an exponential distribution.
Inference for normal and Monte Carlo distributions using minimum relative entropy.
problem Inference from partial information on expectations and covariances.
method Minimum relative entropy sub-manifolds, analytical formulas, Monte Carlo simulations.
result Improved numerical implementation for inference from partial information.
We develop Square Root Graphical Models (SQR), a novel class of parametric graphical models that provides multivariate generalizations of univariate exponential family distributions. Previous multivariate graphical models [Yang et al. 2015] did not allow positive dependencies for the exponential and Poisson generalizat…
Extends diffusion models to handle exponential family distributions for inverse problems.
problem Intractability of likelihood score for non-Gaussian observations.
method Evidence trick to approximate likelihood score for exponential family distributions.
result Effective Bayesian inference on complex Poisson processes and malaria prevalence prediction.
Characterizes uncertainty in low-rank matrix completion with noisy data.
problem Uncertainty quantification in low-rank matrix completion with heterogeneous sub-exponential noise.
method Characterizes the distribution of estimated matrix entries under low-rank estimators with heterogeneous sub-exponential noise.
result Explicit formulas for the distribution of estimated matrix entries under Poisson and Binary noise.
Flexible mean field variational inference using mixtures of non-overlapping exponential familiesmath.ST
Improves variational inference for sparse models using mixtures of exponential families.
problem Intractability of posterior distributions in Bayesian sparse models.
method Flexible mean field variational inference using mixtures of non-overlapping exponential families.
result Mixtures of exponential families with non-overlapping support form an exponential family, enabling analytical updates.
Study addresses RTB model performance drops due to distribution shifts.
problem Distribution shifts between training and target environments in RTB markets.
method Applies Exponential Tilt Reweighting Alignment (ExTRA) algorithm to estimate and correct model weights.
result Demonstrates improved RTB model performance using ExTRA algorithm.
Proves new concentration inequalities for sub-gaussian and sub-exponential variables.
problem Understanding functions of independent random variables better.
method Sub-gaussian and sub-exponential conditions, Rademacher complexities, Lipschitz function classes.
result Extension of Rademacher complexities to unbounded sub-exponential distributions.
Study on continuous sequence classification with distribution uncertainty.
problem Classifying continuous sequences with varying distribution uncertainty.
method Proposes distribution-free tests for three test designs: fixed-length, sequential, and two-phase tests.
result Error probabilities decay exponentially fast for all test designs.
BART is extended to handle various response variables.
problem Modeling nonlinear regression functions for diverse response types.
method Generalized Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (GBART) for exponential family distributions.
result The posterior concentrates at a minimax rate for certain response distributions.
Approximating exponential family models (not single distributions) with a two-network architecturestat.ML
Recently much attention has been paid to deep generative models, since they have been used to great success for variational inference, generation of complex data types, and more. In most all of these settings, the goal has been to find a particular member of that model family: optimized parameters index a distribution …
It will be discussed the statistics of the extreme values in time series characterized by finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, it will be considered the results of numerical analyses concerning the return intervals of extreme values of the fluctuations of resistance and defect-fraction displa…
We study the problem of finding the smallest such that every element of an exponential family can be written as a mixture of elements of another exponential family. We propose an approach based on coverings and packings of the face lattice of the corresponding convex support polytopes and results from coding th…
We introduce a new statistical tool (the TP-statistic and TE-statistic) designed specifically to compare the behavior of the sample tail of distributions with power-law and exponential tails as a function of the lower threshold u. One important property of these statistics is that they converge to zero for power laws o…
Predicting conversion rates (CVRs) in display advertising (e.g., predicting the proportion of users who purchase an item (i.e., a conversion) after its corresponding ad is clicked) is important when measuring the effects of ads shown to users and to understanding the interests of the users. There is generally a time de…
Efficiently learns exponential family distributions with i.i.d. samples.
problem Learning natural parameters of truncated exponential families efficiently.
method Proposes a novel loss function and computationally efficient estimator.
result Achieves optimal sample complexity and asymptotic normality.
Optimal learning for parametric prophet inequalities with exponential-type distributions
problem Learning in prophet inequalities with unknown parameters
method Confidence-based dynamic-programming policy
result Achieves optimal asymptotic competitive ratio using online observations
Paper defines ε-Safe Decision Regions for exponential family distributions and approximates them for unbalanced data.
problem Need probabilistic guarantees for reliable predictions in machine learning.
method Formalizes ε-Safe Decision Regions, proves their form for exponential family distributions, and develops Multi Cost SVM for unbalanced data.
result Formal definition and analytical determination of ε-Safe Decision Regions for exponential family distributions.
Evidence for the exponential distribution of income in the USAcond-mat.stat-mech
Using tax and census data, we demonstrate that the distribution of individual income in the USA is exponential. Our calculated Lorenz curve without fitting parameters and Gini coefficient 1/2 agree well with the data. From the individual income distribution, we derive the distribution function of income for families wi…
Generic Unsupervised Optimization for a Latent Variable Model With Exponential Family Observablescs.LG
New LVMs optimize any exponential family distribution without specific assumptions.
problem Optimizing latent variable models with non-Gaussian observables.
method Generic optimization using EM approach for exponential family distributions.
result Concise parameter update equations applicable to various data types.