A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper proposes SLINK clustering for nonparametric data sequences with improved consistency.
AUC (area under ROC curve) is an important evaluation criterion, which has been popularly used in many learning tasks such as class-imbalance learning, cost-sensitive learning, learning to rank, etc. Many learning approaches try to optimize AUC, while owing to the non-convexity and discontinuousness of AUC, almost all …
Ormerod and Mounfield analysed GDP data of 17 leading capitalist economies from 1870 to 1994 and concluded that the frequency of the duration of recessions is consistent with a power-law. But in fact the data is consistent with an exponential (Boltzmann-Gibbs) law.
Unique optimal strategy identified for state-dependent risk aversion.
A nonparametric family of conditional distributions is introduced, which generalizes conditional exponential families using functional parameters in a suitable RKHS. An algorithm is provided for learning the generalized natural parameter, and consistency of the estimator is established in the well specified case. In ex…
Paper explores connections between loss functions and consistency in binary classification and regression.
This paper analyzes VAE approximation errors in conditional exponential families.
A function is exponentially concave if its exponential is concave. We consider exponentially concave functions on the unit simplex. In a previous paper we showed that gradient maps of exponentially concave functions provide solutions to a Monge-Kantorovich optimal transport problem and give a better gradient approximat…
Exponential functionals of Brownian motion have been extensively studied in financial and insurance mathematics due to their broad applications, for example, in the pricing of Asian options. The Black-Scholes model is appealing because of mathematical tractability, yet empirical evidence shows that geometric Brownian m…
GES algorithm improves consistency for nonparametric DAG models.
We provide a complete characterization of the class of one-dimensional time-homogeneous diffusions consistent with a given law at an exponentially distributed time using classical results in diffusion theory. To illustrate we characterize the class of diffusions with the same distribution as Brownian motion at an expon…
Extended logarithm for solvable elements in mapping class groups.
Efficiently learns exponential family distributions with i.i.d. samples.
This technical report proves components consistency for the Doubly Stochastic Dirichlet Process with exponential convergence of posterior probability. We also present the fundamental properties for DSDP as well as inference algorithms. Simulation toy experiment and real-world experiment results for single and multi-clu…
We propose a robust estimator to improve maximum likelihood in probabilistic models.
The problem of universal outlying sequence detection is studied, where the goal is to detect outlying sequences among sequences of samples. A sequence is considered as outlying if the observations therein are generated by a distribution different from those generating the observations in the majority of the sequenc…
Analyzing historical data of price indices we find an extraordinary growth phenomenon in several examples of hyper-inflation in which price changes are approximated nicely by double-exponential functions of time. In order to explain such behavior we introduce the general coarse-graining technique in physics, the Monte …
We analyze the data on personal income distribution from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We compare fits of the data to the exponential, log-normal, and gamma distributions. The exponential function gives a good (albeit not perfect) description of 98% of the population in the lower part of the distribution. The lo…
We consider the problem of rank loss minimization in the setting of multilabel classification, which is usually tackled by means of convex surrogate losses defined on pairs of labels. Very recently, this approach was put into question by a negative result showing that commonly used pairwise surrogate losses, such as ex…
Study optimal stopping times for multi-dimensional processes with non-exponential discounting.
The paper extends static Systemic Risk Measures to a conditional setting.
Consider semi-supervised learning for classification, where both labeled and unlabeled data are available for training. The goal is to exploit both datasets to achieve higher prediction accuracy than just using labeled data alone. We develop a semi-supervised logistic learning method based on exponential tilt mixture m…
This paper extends exponential smoothing to distributional time series using Wasserstein distance.
Given two sets of independent samples from unknown distributions and , a two-sample test decides whether to reject the null hypothesis that . Recent attention has focused on kernel two-sample tests as the test statistics are easy to compute, converge fast, and have low bias with their finite sample estimate…
Space exploration technology advances exponentially, consistent with Moore's and Wright's laws.
New algorithm trains deep neural networks without global optimization.
Estimating divergences in a consistent way is of great importance in many machine learning tasks. Although this is a fundamental problem in nonparametric statistics, to the best of our knowledge there has been no finite sample exponential inequality convergence bound derived for any divergence estimators. The main cont…
We study the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility model and observe that the model shows a multiscale behavior in the volatility autocorrelation. It also exhibits a leverage correlation and a probability profile for the stationary volatility which are consistent with market observations. All these featu…
We consider indifference pricing of contingent claims consisting of payment flows in a discrete time model with proportional transaction costs and under exponential disutility. This setting covers utility maximisation as a special case. A dual representation is obtained for the associated disutility minimisation proble…
We introduce an algorithm for the pricing of finite expiry American options driven by Lévy processes. The idea is to tweak Carr's `Canadisation' method, cf. Carr [9] (see also Bouchard et al [5]), in such a way that the adjusted algorithm is viable for any Lévy process whose law at an independent, exponentially distrib…
We consider a random walk on the mapping class group of a surface of finite type. We assume that the random walk is determined by a probability measure whose support is finite and generates a non-elementary subgroup . We further assume that is not consisting only of lifts with respect to any one covering. Then w…
The matrix completion problem consists in reconstructing a matrix from a sample of entries, possibly observed with noise. A popular class of estimator, known as nuclear norm penalized estimators, are based on minimizing the sum of a data fitting term and a nuclear norm penalization. Here, we investigate the case where …
We investigate a class of hierarchical mixtures-of-experts (HME) models where exponential family regression models with generalized linear mean functions of the form psi(ga+fx^Tfgb) are mixed. Here psi(...) is the inverse link function. Suppose the true response y follows an exponential family regression model with mea…
We study an optimization problem for a portfolio with a risk-free, a liquid, and an illiquid risky asset. The illiquid risky asset is sold in an exogenous random moment with a prescribed liquidation time distribution. The investor prefers a negative or a positive exponential utility function. We prove that both cases a…
Utility based methods provide a very general theoretically consistent approach to pricing and hedging of securities in incomplete financial markets. Solving problems in the utility based framework typically involves dynamic programming, which in practise can be difficult to implement. This article presents a Monte Carl…
The study provides error bounds for the generalized Lasso with sub-exponential data.
In the field of statistics, many kind of divergence functions have been studied as an amount which measures the discrepancy between two probability distributions. In the differential geometrical approach in statistics (information geometry), dually flat spaces play a key role. In a dually flat space, there exist dual a…
In this work, we study the value of an Asian option in the case of exponential Levy markets. More specifically, we are interested in the NIG (normal inverse Gaussian) the VG (variance gamma) models. The exponential Levy models produce incomplete markets. There are therefore an infinite number of equivalent martingale m…
Recent theoretical results establish that time-consistent valuations (i.e. pricing operators) can be created by backward iteration of one-period valuations. In this paper we investigate the continuous-time limits of well-known actuarial premium principles when such backward iteration procedures are applied. We show tha…
Improved GNN simulation of WL test with exponentially lower complexity.
The A-polynomial of a manifold whose boundary consists of a single torus is generalised to an eigenvalue variety of a manifold whose boundary consists of a finite number of tori, and the set of strongly detected boundary curves is determined by Bergman's logarithmic limit set, which describes the exponential behaviour …
We propose a new model for electricity pricing based on the price cap principle. The particularity of the model is that the asset price is an exponential functional of a jump Lévy process. This model can capture both mean reversion and jumps which are observed in electricity market. It is shown that the value of an Eur…
Paper studies statistical manifolds with logarithmic divergences.
Develops Aleksandrov reflection for hyperbolic flows, proving convergence to umbilic surfaces.
Researchers improve NCE by addressing its flat loss landscape issues.
Geometric Gaussian approximations capture any distribution.
This manuscript studies statistical properties of linear classifiers obtained through minimization of an unregularized convex risk over a finite sample. Although the results are explicitly finite-dimensional, inputs may be passed through feature maps; in this way, in addition to treating the consistency of logistic reg…
Robust score matching improves parameter estimation in contaminated data.