arXiv research

We study exponential Levy models with change-point which is a random variable, independent from initial Levy processes. On canonical space with initially enlarged filtration we describe all equivalent martingale measures for change-point model and we give the conditions for the existence of f-divergence minimal equival…

We derive measure change formulae required to price midcurve swaptions in the forward swap annuity measure with stochastic annuities' ratios. We construct the corresponding linear and exponential terminal swap rate pricing models and show how they capture the midcurve swaption correlation skew.

Paper introduces infinite-dimensional generative models using Doob's h-transform.

New PAC-Bayes bounds derived using Legendre transform and f-divergences.

The paper simplifies calculus for semimartingales using multiplicative compensation.

We derive integral tests for the existence and absence of arbitrage in a financial market with one risky asset which is either modeled as stochastic exponential of an Ito process or a positive diffusion with Markov switching. In particular, we derive conditions for the existence of the minimal martingale measure. We al…

This paper studies a class of exponential family models whose canonical parameters are specified as linear functionals of an unknown infinite-dimensional slope function. The optimal minimax rates of convergence for slope function estimation are established. The estimators that achieve the optimal rates are constructed …

In this paper, we studied a Finsler space whose metric is given by an h-exponential change and obtain the Cartan connection coefficients for the change. We also find the necessary and sufficient condition for an h-exponential change of Finsler metric to be projective.

We give a collection of explicit sufficient conditions for the true martingale property of a wide class of exponentials of semimartingales. We express the conditions in terms of semimartingale characteristics. This turns out to be very convenient in financial modeling in general. Especially it allows us to carefully di…

Develops European power option pricing under correlated interest rate and asset processes.

Recently we have obtained the Cartan connection for the Finsler space whose metric is given by an exponential change with an h-vector. In this paper, we discuss certain geometric properties of a Finslerian hyperspace subjected to an h-exponential change of metric.

Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices. During such market regimes, stock prices change at a super-exponential rate and ar…

We consider the Fractionally Integrated Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity process, denoted by FIEGARCH(p,d,q), introduced by Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996). We present a simulated study regarding the estimation of the risk measure $VaR_p$ on FIEGARCH processes. We consider the distr…

Shot-Noise processes constitute a useful tool in various areas, in particular in finance. They allow to model abrupt changes in a more flexible way than processes with jumps and hence are an ideal tool for modelling stock prices, credit portfolio risk, systemic risk, or electricity markets. Here we consider a general f…

Researchers prove a new measure for a financial volatility model.

New linear flows using exponential of linear transformations improve generative models.

We present simple new examples of pure-jump strict local martingales. The examples are constructed as exponentials of self-exciting affine Markov processes. We characterize the strict local martingale property of these processes by an integral criterion and by non-uniqueness of an associated ordinary differential equat…

Study utility maximization with delayed information in continuous time Gaussian markets.

This paper constructs and studies the long-term factorization of affine pricing kernels into discounting at the rate of return on the long bond and the martingale component that accomplishes the change of probability measure to the long forward measure. The principal eigenfunction of the affine pricing kernel germane t…

We analyze waiting times for price changes in a foreign currency exchange rate. Recent empirical studies of high frequency financial data support that trades in financial markets do not follow a Poisson process and the waiting times between trades are not exponentially distributed. Here we show that our data is well ap…

KQT-EWMA monitors multivariate data streams online with flexible and practical change detection.

In this paper, we examine the dependence of standard gluing process for pseudoholomorphic curves under the change of the length $T$ of the neck-region with respect to the cylindrical metrics associated to the given analytic coordinates near the punctures in the setting of bordered open Riemann surface with boundary pun…

Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their subjective risk-aversion. This paper examines spectral risk measures based on an exponential utility function, and finds that these risk measures have nice intuitive properties. It also discusses how th…

In this article, we consider a Markov process X, starting from x and solving a stochastic differential equation, which is driven by a Brownian motion and an independent pure jump component exhibiting state-dependent jump intensity and infinite jump activity. A second order expansion is derived for the tail probability …

We propose a new approach to the problem of neural network expressivity, which seeks to characterize how structural properties of a neural network family affect the functions it is able to compute. Our approach is based on an interrelated set of measures of expressivity, unified by the novel notion of trajectory length…

Paper optimizes change-point detection using learned distributions from training sequences.

Boosting with tempered exponential measures improves AdaBoost's convergence rate.

Market activity scales near a constant of 0.632 in intrinsic time.

Innovative inequalities for divergences with applications in PAC-Bayesian bounds and Monte Carlo.

Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its {\it per capita} GDP ({\it gdp}) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay constant $λ= 0.12$. We use the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Global …

This paper extends results of Mortimer and Williams (1991) about changes of probability measure up to a random time under the assumptions that all martingales are continuous and that the random time avoids stopping times. We consider locally absolutely continuous measure changes up to a random time, changes of probabil…

We develop a technique based on Malliavin-Bismut calculus ideas, for asymptotic expansion of dual control problems arising in connection with exponential indifference valuation of claims, and with minimisation of relative entropy, in incomplete markets. The problems involve optimisation of a functional of Brownian path…

Entropy-minimal measure calculated for a stochastic volatility model.

To deal with changing environments, a new performance measure -- adaptive regret, defined as the maximum static regret over any interval, was proposed in online learning. Under the setting of online convex optimization, several algorithms have been successfully developed to minimize the adaptive regret. However, existi…

The paper calculates ruin probabilities for insurers with phase-type distributed claims.

Kramkov and Sirbu (2006, 2007) have shown that first-order approximations of power utility-based prices and hedging strategies can be computed by solving a mean-variance hedging problem under a specific equivalent martingale measure and relative to a suitable numeraire. In order to avoid the introduction of an addition…

A new algorithm detects changes in data with constant cost per iteration.

Geometric pruning rules improve change point detection in multiple time series.

Improved reSGLD accelerates convergence in non-convex learning problems.

Word embeddings are a powerful approach for unsupervised analysis of language. Recently, Rudolph et al. (2016) developed exponential family embeddings, which cast word embeddings in a probabilistic framework. Here, we develop dynamic embeddings, building on exponential family embeddings to capture how the meanings of w…

Extends online learning to metric spaces using exponential weights.

The presence of non linear instruments is responsible for the emergence of non Gaussian features in the price changes distribution of realistic portfolios, even for Normally distributed risk factors. This is especially true for the benchmark Delta Gamma Normal model, which in general exhibits exponentially damped power…

We study the stability of several no-arbitrage conditions with respect to absolutely continuous, but not necessarily equivalent, changes of measure. We first consider models based on continuous semimartingales and show that no-arbitrage conditions weaker than NA and NFLVR are always stable. Then, in the context of gene…

Develops a nonparametric framework for detecting changes in sequential data.

Differentially Private algorithms often need to select the best amongst many candidate options. Classical works on this selection problem require that the candidates' goodness, measured as a real-valued score function, does not change by much when one person's data changes. In many applications such as hyperparameter o…

We investigate exponential stock models driven by tempered stable processes, which constitute a rich family of purely discontinuous Lévy processes. With a view of option pricing, we provide a systematic analysis of the existence of equivalent martingale measures, under which the model remains analytically tractable. Th…

For an exponential utility maximizing investment strategy in a Black-Scholes Setting, fixed upper and lower constraints are introduced on the terminal wealth. This is equivalent to combining the optimal strategy with options. The resulting distribution is investigated in terms of change of quantiles. The theory is illu…

We find a simple expression for the probability density of $\int \exp (B_s - s/2) ds$ in terms of its distribution function and the distribution function for the time integral of $\exp (B_s + s/2)$. The relation is obtained with a change of measure argument where expectations over events determined by the time integral…