System uses conformal prediction to help experts make accurate decisions without understanding when to trust it.
problem Helping experts make accurate decisions in multiclass classification tasks.
method Develops an automated decision support system using conformal prediction to provide precise prediction sets and an efficient search method.
result System improves expert predictions by providing precise prediction sets and forcing experts to predict from these sets.
New decision support systems use prediction sets to help experts update their predictions, improving performance.
problem Challenges in explaining and updating predictions from decision support systems.
method Developed a methodology leveraging nested structure of prediction sets and counterfactual monotonicity to improve performance.
result Limiting experts' agency leads to better performance in decision support systems based on prediction sets.
AI system narrows human decision options for better outcomes.
problem Improving human decision-making in sequential tasks.
method Developed a decision support system using a pre-trained AI agent to limit human action choices.
result Participants outperformed AI and solo play in a wildfire mitigation game.
An assistant learns to mediate decisions between humans and experts, balancing risk and learning.
problem Learning to mediate decisions between imperfect humans and expert knowledge.
method Formalizes online decision mediation, proposes a policy to balance immediate loss and future generalization.
result Consistent gains over benchmarks in decision-making performance.
The paper develops a method for inferring second opinions from experts using counterfactual inference.
problem Designing efficient decision support systems for second opinions.
method Set invariant Gumbel-Max structural causal model for multiclass classification.
result The proposed model can infer second opinions more accurately than non-causal models.
Rapid advancements in deep learning have led to many recent breakthroughs. While deep learning models achieve superior performance, often statistically better than humans, their adoption into safety-critical settings, such as healthcare or self-driving cars is hindered by their inability to provide safety guarantees or…
Reinforcement learning improves online matching by combining expert policies.
problem Efficient decision-making in complex systems like cloud services and marketplaces.
method Combines reinforcement learning with expert policies, using advantage-based weight updates.
result The orchestrated policy converges faster and yields higher efficiency than individual experts and conventional RL.
Proposes method for eliciting non-parametric joint priors using normalizing flows.
problem Learning complex non-parametric joint priors for model parameters.
method Expert elicitation combined with normalizing flows for generative modeling.
result Framework supports elicitation of both parametric and non-parametric priors.
Societies often rely on human experts to take a wide variety of decisions affecting their members, from jail-or-release decisions taken by judges and stop-and-frisk decisions taken by police officers to accept-or-reject decisions taken by academics. In this context, each decision is taken by an expert who is typically …
DECE visualizes machine learning decisions with counterfactual explanations.
problem Making machine learning models transparent and explainable.
method Interactive visualization system supporting counterfactual explanations at instance- and subgroup-levels.
result DECE enables users to explore and understand machine learning model decisions.
Recent efforts in Machine Learning (ML) interpretability have focused on creating methods for explaining black-box ML models. However, these methods rely on the assumption that simple approximations, such as linear models or decision-trees, are inherently human-interpretable, which has not been empirically tested. Addi…
Paper proposes consistent estimators for learning to defer decisions to experts.
problem Learning algorithms often ignore expert decision-making in practical scenarios.
method Reduction to cost sensitive learning, novel surrogate loss for consistent estimation.
result Effective approach demonstrated on various tasks, showing consistency.
Framework for responsible LLM deployment with human involvement and decentralized technologies.
problem Challenges in deploying LLMs for high-stakes decisions, including data security and accountability.
method Interactive human involvement through multiple iterations, decentralized technologies, and automated auditing.
result Enhanced security and accountability in LLM deployment for financial decisions.
On a daily investment decision in a security market, the price earnings (PE) ratio is one of the most widely applied methods being used as a firm valuation tool by investment experts. Unfortunately, recent academic developments in financial econometrics and machine learning rarely look at this tool. In practice, fundam…
The paper proposes a method to explain expert decisions by modeling preferences with 'what if' outcomes.
problem Interpreting and auditing decision-making policies in institutions.
method Integrating counterfactual reasoning into batch inverse reinforcement learning.
result The method effectively recovers accurate and interpretable descriptions of expert behavior.
The paper develops a decision support system for hierarchical text classification of conference proceedings.
problem Classifying documents with a fixed hierarchical structure of topics.
method Developed a weighted hierarchical similarity function to calculate topic relevance, using entropy of words to estimate weights.
result The weighted hierarchical similarity function improves ranking accuracy compared to other methods.
A new algorithm trains experts to safely guide agents in partially observed environments.
problem Existing imitation learning methods for POMDPs can lead to sub-optimal or unsafe policies.
method Derive an objective to encourage the expert to maximize the agent's reward, then use it to train both expert and agent.
result The algorithm produces an expert policy that the agent can safely imitate, outperforming fixed expert policies.
Framework uses human judgment to distinguish algorithmically indistinguishable cases.
problem Clarifying human-AI collaboration in prediction and decision tasks.
method Integrates human judgment to distinguish algorithmically indistinguishable cases.
result Improves performance of any feasible algorithmic predictor.
AI framework uses multi-omics data to personalize cancer treatment suggestions.
problem Leveraging AI for personalized cancer treatment based on complex patient characteristics.
method Modular machine learning framework trained on diverse multi-omics technologies.
result Superior performance in personalized counterfactual treatment suggestions.
We consider the problem of imitation learning from a finite set of expert trajectories, without access to reinforcement signals. The classical approach of extracting the expert's reward function via inverse reinforcement learning, followed by reinforcement learning is indirect and may be computationally expensive. Rece…
Expert-guided model improves seismic compliance monitoring.
problem Classifying seismic data with missingness and expert knowledge.
method Expert-guided class-conditional model with interpretable goodness-of-fit features.
result Interpretable classifier outperforms standard machine learning, especially with small training data.
Many real-world control problems involve both discrete decision variables - such as the choice of control modes, gear switching or digital outputs - as well as continuous decision variables - such as velocity setpoints, control gains or analogue outputs. However, when defining the corresponding optimal control or reinf…
SAIL improves AIL by weighting adversarial rewards with support estimation.
problem Training instability and reward bias in AIL.
method Support-weighted Adversarial Imitation Learning (SAIL) extends AIL with support estimation to improve reinforcement signals.
result SAIL achieves better performance and stability on benchmark tasks.
The paper addresses the difficulty of decision makers trusting AI-assisted predictions and proposes a method to improve confidence values.
problem Decision makers struggle to trust AI-assisted predictions based on confidence values.
method The paper investigates why decision makers have difficulties and proposes a method to construct more useful confidence values.
result Multicalibration with respect to the decision maker's confidence on her own predictions is a sufficient condition for alignment, leading to better decisions.
Framework allows systems to defer difficult decisions to unknown experts.
problem Ensuring safety and robustness in autonomous systems with unknown human experts.
method Meta-learning approach that adapts to new experts at test-time using optimization and model-based attention mechanisms.
result Framework can quickly adapt deferral policies to new experts without re-training.
Study optimal investment with herd behavior using rational decision decomposition.
problem Optimal investment problem considering herd behavior between two agents.
method Introduce average deviation term, use variational method, rational decision decomposition, investment opinion.
result Quantitative analysis of herd behavior impact on investment decisions.
MM-DREX adapts LLM experts for financial trading via dynamic routing.
problem Challenges of non-stationary financial markets and static expert designs.
method MM-DREX uses a VLM-powered dynamic router to allocate expert weights and designs heterogeneous trading experts.
result Significantly outperforms 15 baselines across key metrics.
We present a new approach for learning compact and intuitive distributed representations with binary encoding. Rather than summing up expert votes as in products of experts, we employ for each variable the opinion of the most reliable expert. Data points are hence explained through a partitioning of the variables into …
A new method for learning to defer decisions with expert advice improves over standard methods.
problem Learning to defer decisions with expert advice in systems where expert information can be modified after selection.
method An augmented surrogate that operates on the composite expert-advice action space, providing consistency guarantees and excess-risk bounds.
result The method improves over standard Learning-to-Defer and adapts its advice acquisition behavior to the cost regime.
FinHEAR combines LLMs with human expertise for better financial decision-making.
problem Challenges in financial decision-making for language models.
method Multi-agent framework with specialized LLMs for historical analysis, event interpretation, and expert retrieval.
result FinHEAR outperforms baselines in financial tasks with higher accuracy and risk-adjusted returns.
Paper explores limits of imitation learning in MDPs, setting new suboptimality bounds.
problem Understanding the statistical limits of imitation learning in MDPs.
method Analyzes minimax statistical limits in two settings: pre-interaction and interaction.
result Establishes suboptimality bounds for imitation learning in MDPs, showing improvements with knowledge of transition.
In this work, we present our various contributions to the objective of building a decision support tool for the diagnosis of rare diseases. Our goal is to achieve a state of knowledge where the uncertainty about the patient's disease is below a predetermined threshold. We aim to reach such states while minimizing the a…
The goal of meta-learning is to train a model on a variety of learning tasks, such that it can adapt to new problems within only a few iterations. Here we propose a principled information-theoretic model that optimally partitions the underlying problem space such that specialized expert decision-makers solve the result…
Specialized hierarchies improve decision-making by partitioning tasks.
problem Division of labor and specialization in hierarchical systems.
method Information-theoretic on-line learning rule for partitioning tasks.
result Enforces specialization and optimal combination of experts.
A simple algorithm improves model generalization in expert advice settings.
problem Improving model generalization in expert advice settings.
method A naive aggregation algorithm for point estimations of high-dimensional nonlinear functions.
result Conditions for optimal parameter estimates through sequential mixing distribution strategies.
Human-in-the-loop data analysis applications necessitate greater transparency in machine learning models for experts to understand and trust their decisions. To this end, we propose a visual analytics workflow to help data scientists and domain experts explore, diagnose, and understand the decisions made by a binary cl…
Novel algorithms for online learning with uncertain feedback graphs reduce regret.
problem Uncertainty in feedback graphs hinders traditional online learning approaches.
method Developed novel online learning algorithms to handle uncertain feedback graphs.
result Proved sublinear regret under mild conditions for the proposed algorithms.
Study optimal investment under imitation of decision-changing rates.
problem Optimal investment under imitation of decision-changing rates.
method Proposed integral disparity to quantify imitation, derived general solution using variational method, analyzed asymptotic properties, validated with real data.
result Investor's optimal decisions under imitation of decision-changing rates.
Dropout is a very effective method in preventing overfitting and has become the go-to regularizer for multi-layer neural networks in recent years. Hierarchical mixture of experts is a hierarchically gated model that defines a soft decision tree where leaves correspond to experts and decision nodes correspond to gating …
A contextual care protocol is used by a medical practitioner for patient healthcare, given the context or situation that the specified patient is in. This paper proposes a method to build an automated self-adapting protocol which can help make relevant, early decisions for effective healthcare delivery. The hybrid mode…
Decision support tools that rely on supervised learning require large amounts of expert annotations. Using past radiological reports obtained from hospital archiving systems has many advantages as training data above manual single-class labels: they are expert annotations available in large quantities, covering a popul…
A new framework AlphaMix combines multiple trading experts to improve stock investment decisions.
problem Inconsistent financial predictions and lack of model uncertainty in investment decisions.
method Reformulate quantitative investment as a multi-task learning problem, and propose AlphaMix framework.
result AlphaMix significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in financial criteria.
Algorithm detects changes online using expert tracking.
problem Online change point detection in nonparametric settings.
method Sequential score function estimation and tracking the best expert approach.
result Algorithm performs well in artificial and real-world data.
The study tightens risk bounds for mixtures of experts using local differential privacy.
problem Improving risk bounds for mixtures of experts.
method Imposing local differential privacy (LDP) on the gating mechanism of mixtures of experts.
result Theoretical bounds exhibit logarithmic dependence on the number of experts and tighter than existing bounds.
The study aims to explore the strength of causal relationship between stock price search interest and real stock market outcomes on worldwide equity market indices. Such a phenomenon could also be mediated by investor behavior and extent of news coverage. The stock-specific internet search trends data and corresponding…
Paper uses RL to optimize ICU load during COVID-19.
problem Optimizing ICU load during a pandemic.
method Combines epidemic model, Bayesian inference, and RL for adaptive intervention levels.
result RL policies reduce ICU burden compared to historical interventions.
ARGUE combines expert networks for anomaly detection.
problem Anomaly detection without labeled data.
method Gated mixture-of-experts architecture combining expert networks.
result Prior knowledge about normal data distribution is valuable.
A method for eliciting expert beliefs using preferential questions and normalizing flows.
problem Eliciting high-dimensional probability distributions from noisy judgments.
method Normalizing flows based on preferential questions with a novel functional prior.
result The method allows for the inference of arbitrarily flexible densities from preferential judgments.