New loss function improves classification accuracy.
problem Negative expected accuracy as an alternative to cross entropy for classification.
method Empirical investigation using modified leaky version of expected accuracy.
result Comparable or better accuracy compared to cross entropy, robust to label noise.
Paper proposes using tree-based surrogate models for efficient Shapley computation.
problem Efficient computation of Shapley values using conditional expectations.
method Surrogate model-based tree for approximating Shapley and SHAP values.
result The proposed algorithm improves accuracy and unifies global interpretation.
We analyze the relation between earning forecast accuracy and expected profitability of financial analysts. Modeling forecast errors with a multivariate Gaussian distribution, a complete characterization of the payoff of each analyst is provided. In particular, closed-form expressions for the probability density functi…
Efficiently predicts long-time dynamics of quantum spin models using MLP regression.
problem Challenges in calculating long-time expectation values for quantum spin models.
method Utilized a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model for regression on matrix product states (MPS) expectation values.
result Significantly reduced computational cost for generating long-time dynamics while maintaining high accuracy.
DP-SEP privatizes EP by refining a single factor per data point.
problem Private inference of complex models with limited memory.
method Stochastic Expectation Propagation with differential privacy.
result DP-SEP provides better posterior estimates with guaranteed privacy.
This paper improves active learning for Gaussian process regression to handle distributional uncertainty.
problem Active learning for Gaussian process regression does not guarantee accurate predictions for target distributions.
method Proposes two methods to reduce worst-case expected error for Gaussian process regression.
result Shows an upper bound of the worst-case expected squared error, suggesting finite data labels can achieve arbitrarily small error.
Proposes ETB for tighter bounds in robust training of deep networks.
problem Training robust deep neural networks to adversarial attacks.
method Proposes ETB, a provably tighter bound approach for interval bound propagation.
result Achieves orders of magnitudes tighter bounds compared to IBP.
Study improves accuracy of risk measures using advanced algorithms.
problem Computing accurate risk measures for financial losses.
method Nested stochastic approximation and multilevel acceleration.
result Established central limit theorems for estimation errors.
Improves accuracy of SMCI estimators without expanding sum regions.
problem Intractable multiple summations in evaluating expectations on the Ising model.
method Combining multiple SMCI estimators using generalized least squares (GLS).
result The proposed method can improve accuracy without combinatorial explosion.
Neural networks improve Bermudan option pricing accuracy.
problem Pricing Bermudan options with conditional expectation challenges.
method Neural network approximations of conditional expectations.
result Longstaff and Schwartz algorithm convergence with neural networks.
The difficulty of multi-class classification generally increases with the number of classes. Using data from a subset of the classes, can we predict how well a classifier will scale with an increased number of classes? Under the assumptions that the classes are sampled identically and independently from a population, a…
DCC separates marginal estimation from dependence modeling for improved classification accuracy.
problem Classifying with strong dependence between features.
method Deep Copula Classifier using neural copula densities.
result Achieves excess-risk O(n−r/(2r+d)) for r-smooth copulas. Current OOD benchmarks overestimate model robustness to spurious correlations.
problem Spurious correlations degrade OOD performance, but benchmarks show the opposite.
method Analyze OOD datasets for spurious correlations and derive conditions for robustness.
result Current OOD benchmarks are misspecified and overestimate model robustness.
This paper distills Bayesian posterior expectations for deep neural networks.
problem Improving deep neural network performance and uncertainty quantification.
method Develops a framework for distilling expectations from Bayesian posterior distributions using Monte Carlo samples.
result The framework successfully distills posterior predictive distribution and expected entropy.
Extended univariate Range Value-at-Risk to multivariate settings.
problem Inability of traditional risk measures for heavy-tail distributions and infinite tail expectations.
method Multivariate definitions of robust truncated tail expectations, robustness and properties derived, closed-form expressions and special cases discussed.
result Empirical estimators accuracy examined through numerical and graphical examples.
Develops a new option pricing model under G-expectation framework.
problem Modeling uncertainty in financial markets and robust valuation under model uncertainty.
method G-expectation framework, logarithmic transformation, finite difference schemes.
result Unified risk-neutral valuation approach yielding G-Black-Scholes equation.
We derive an optimal policy for adaptively restarting a randomized algorithm, based on observed features of the run-so-far, so as to minimize the expected time required for the algorithm to successfully terminate. Given a suitable Bayesian prior, this result can be used to select the optimal black-box optimization algo…
We develop a framework for approximating collapsed Gibbs sampling in generative latent variable cluster models. Collapsed Gibbs is a popular MCMC method, which integrates out variables in the posterior to improve mixing. Unfortunately for many complex models, integrating out these variables is either analytically or co…
We present an objective function for learning with unlabeled data that utilizes auxiliary expectation constraints. We optimize this objective function using a procedure that alternates between information and moment projections. Our method provides an alternate interpretation of the posterior regularization framework (…
Paper derives a simplified formula for Expected Improvement using log-transformed data.
problem Challenges in enhancing Bayesian optimization with Expected Improvement.
method Derives a closed form of Expected Improvement for Gaussian process trained on log-transformed objective.
result Provides a simplified formula for Expected Improvement.
Efficient EP algorithm improves smoothing distribution inference in financial models.
problem Computational intractability of smoothing distribution in high dimensions.
method Adapted expectation propagation (EP) algorithms for the unified skew-normal family.
result Accuracy gains in financial illustrations over existing approximate algorithms.
Improved IVON boosts LoRA model accuracy and calibration.
problem Improving the accuracy and calibration of large language models.
method Replaced AdamW with IVON for finetuning Llama-2.
result IVON improves Llama-2 accuracy by 2.8% and calibration error by 4.6%.
New algorithms optimize time series classification speed and accuracy.
problem Efficiently classify time series data quickly without sacrificing accuracy.
method Optimization criterion balancing misclassification and delay costs, derived non-myopic algorithms.
result Supervised-based algorithms outperform unsupervised-based ones in real data sets.
Bayesian LSTM model improves VaR and ES forecasting accuracy.
problem Joint forecasting of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES).
method Hybrid model combining LSTM for time series dynamics and Asymmetric Laplace quasi-likelihood for joint likelihood.
result The LSTM-AL model outperforms existing models in VaR and ES forecasting accuracy.
We introduce an equilibrium asset pricing model, which we build on the relationship between a novel risk measure, the Expected Downside Risk (EDR) and the expected return. On the one hand, our proposed risk measure uses a nonparametric approach that allows us to get rid of any assumption on the distribution of returns.…
New method tackles incomplete data in RBM inverse Ising problems.
problem Computing data and model expectations in inverse Ising problems with missing observations.
method Combines mean-field approximation, persistent contrastive divergence, and spatial Monte Carlo integration.
result Effective and accurate tuning of model parameters compared to conventional methods.
CEP improves inference efficiency and accuracy by conditional moment matching.
problem Intractable moment matching in EP.
method Conditional expectation propagation (CEP) performs conditional moment matching and expectation.
result CEP achieves better inference quality and efficiency.
We present Memory Augmented Policy Optimization (MAPO), a simple and novel way to leverage a memory buffer of promising trajectories to reduce the variance of policy gradient estimate. MAPO is applicable to deterministic environments with discrete actions, such as structured prediction and combinatorial optimization ta…
Neural network accuracy improves with denser training samples.
problem Improving neural network accuracy on unseen test samples.
method Bounding empirical training error smoothed across activation regions and using it to discard high-risk test samples.
result Discarding high-risk test samples based on error bounds improves prediction accuracy by up to 20%.
Analytical method approximates ELBO gradient in clutter problem.
problem Clutter problem in Bayesian networks with Gaussian likelihood.
method Reparameterization trick, local approximation of likelihood factors.
result Good accuracy and linear computational complexity compared to classical methods.
Dropout, a simple and effective way to train deep neural networks, has led to a number of impressive empirical successes and spawned many recent theoretical investigations. However, the gap between dropout's training and inference phases, introduced due to tractability considerations, has largely remained under-appreci…
Learning ReLU networks to high uniform accuracy requires exponentially many samples.
problem Achieving high uniform accuracy on ReLU networks for security-critical applications.
method Quantified the number of training samples needed for any algorithm to guarantee uniform accuracy.
result The minimal number of training samples scales exponentially with network depth and input dimension.
New active learning strategy improves decision-making accuracy.
problem Maximizing decision-making accuracy in sequential data acquisition.
method Introduces a novel active learning criterion that maximizes expected information gain on the posterior decision distribution.
result Improved performance in decision-making accuracy compared to existing alternatives.
The Normalized Mutual Information (NMI) has been widely used to evaluate the accuracy of community detection algorithms. However in this article we show that the NMI is seriously affected by systematic errors due to finite size of networks, and may give a wrong estimate of performance of algorithms in some cases. We gi…
The generative aspect model is an extension of the multinomial model for text that allows word probabilities to vary stochastically across documents. Previous results with aspect models have been promising, but hindered by the computational difficulty of carrying out inference and learning. This paper demonstrates that…
The paper studies a stochastic majority vote approach to improve classifier accuracy.
problem Improving classifier accuracy over ensembles of classifiers.
method Minimizing a PAC-Bayes generalization bound with Dirichlet distributions.
result Achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and tight generalization bounds.
Deep learning improves probabilistic PPDE solution accuracy.
problem Approximating solutions to path-dependent PDEs with limited basis selection.
method Deep learning for conditional expectation estimation with error bounds.
result Deep learning yields more accurate PPDE solutions, especially in high dimensions.
CROQ optimizes LLM decision-making by narrowing down choices and improving accuracy.
problem Uncertainty in LLM outputs poses risks in high-stakes domains.
method Conformal prediction (CP) and optimization (CP-OPT) to minimize prediction set sizes.
result CROQ improves LLM accuracy, especially with CP-OPT.
This paper considers the problem of removing costly features from a Bayesian network classifier. We want the classifier to be robust to these changes, and maintain its classification behavior. To this end, we propose a closeness metric between Bayesian classifiers, called the expected classification agreement (ECA). Ou…
New EP variants improve inference stability and efficiency.
problem Inference stability and efficiency issues in EP.
method Motivated by natural-gradient optimization, new EP variants are introduced that are robust to Monte Carlo noise and efficient with single samples.
result Improved stability and efficiency in inference tasks.
Hierarchical probabilistic models, such as mixture models, are used for cluster analysis. These models have two types of variables: observable and latent. In cluster analysis, the latent variable is estimated, and it is expected that additional information will improve the accuracy of the estimation of the latent varia…
Acceleration in Hilbert spaces reduces computations but not accuracy.
problem Improving learning accuracy with fewer computations.
method Analysis of Nesterov acceleration and heavy-ball methods in Hilbert spaces.
result Acceleration can reduce computations but not improve accuracy with respect to gradient descent.
We consider probabilistic multinomial probit classification using Gaussian process (GP) priors. The challenges with the multiclass GP classification are the integration over the non-Gaussian posterior distribution, and the increase of the number of unknown latent variables as the number of target classes grows. Expecta…
This paper explores data science applications in economics using a taxonomy of models and hybrid models showing higher accuracy.
problem Investigating data science applications in economics.
method Systematic literature review using Prisma method.
result Hybrid models showed higher prediction accuracy than other algorithms.
The predictive quality of machine learning models is typically measured in terms of their (approximate) expected prediction accuracy or the so-called Area Under the Curve (AUC). Minimizing the reciprocals of these measures are the goals of supervised learning. However, when the models are constructed by the means of em…
The paper explores how supervision level affects both statistical accuracy and computational efficiency in weakly supervised binary classification.
problem The impact of label flip probability on statistical and computational efficiency in weakly supervised binary classification.
method Information-theoretic and computational boundaries were established to characterize the relationship between supervision level and performance.
result The gap between statistical and computational boundaries narrows as the supervision level increases, indicating improved computational efficiency with more supervision.
This paper introduces a noise-robust clustering method using distribution distances.
problem Reducing noise impact on clustering results.
method Introduces expectation distance (ED) for distribution clustering, extending K-means and K-medoids.
result Improved clustering accuracy and reduced computation time.
Study integrates implied Hurst exponent into IV models for better market efficiency.
problem Capturing market efficiency in IV models based on moneyness.
method Developed an IV model integrating implied Hurst exponent H, optimizing across multiple indexes.
result Model outperforms SABR and fSABR in accuracy, capturing IV-H dynamics.