A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The goal of online prediction with expert advice is to find a decision strategy which will perform almost as well as the best expert in a given pool of experts, on any sequence of outcomes. This problem has been widely studied and O(T) and O(logT) regret bounds can be achieved for convex losses (\cite{zin…
In this paper we extend the setting of the online prediction with expert advice to function-valued forecasts. At each step of the online game several experts predict a function, and the learner has to efficiently aggregate these functional forecasts into a single forecast. We adapt basic mixable (and exponentially conc…
The overarching goal of this paper is to derive excess risk bounds for learning from exp-concave loss functions in passive and sequential learning settings. Exp-concave loss functions encompass several fundamental problems in machine learning such as squared loss in linear regression, logistic loss in classification, a…
We derive optimal statistical and computational complexity bounds for exp-concave stochastic minimization in terms of the effective dimension. For common eigendecay patterns of the population covariance matrix, this quantity is significantly smaller than the ambient dimension. Our results reveal interesting connections…
Information concentration of probability measures have important implications in learning theory. Recently, it is discovered that the information content of a log-concave distribution concentrates around their differential entropy, albeit with an unpleasant dependence on the ambient dimension. In this work, we prove th…
A standard introduction to online learning might place Online Gradient Descent at its center and then proceed to develop generalizations and extensions like Online Mirror Descent and second-order methods. Here we explore the alternative approach of putting Exponential Weights (EW) first. We show that many standard meth…
In this paper, we present a simple analysis of {\bf fast rates} with {\it high probability} of {\bf empirical minimization} for {\it stochastic composite optimization} over a finite-dimensional bounded convex set with exponential concave loss functions and an arbitrary convex regularization. To the best of our knowledg…
We introduce several new black-box reductions that significantly improve the design of adaptive and parameter-free online learning algorithms by simplifying analysis, improving regret guarantees, and sometimes even improving runtime. We reduce parameter-free online learning to online exp-concave optimization, we reduce…
The speed with which a learning algorithm converges as it is presented with more data is a central problem in machine learning --- a fast rate of convergence means less data is needed for the same level of performance. The pursuit of fast rates in online and statistical learning has led to the discovery of many conditi…
Recursive least-squares algorithms often use forgetting factors as a heuristic to adapt to non-stationary data streams. The first contribution of this paper rigorously characterizes the effect of forgetting factors for a class of online Newton algorithms. For exp-concave and strongly convex objectives, the algorithms a…
We study losses for binary classification and class probability estimation and extend the understanding of them from margin losses to general composite losses which are the composition of a proper loss with a link function. We characterise when margin losses can be proper composite losses, explicitly show how to determ…
We present the Tamed Cross Entropy (TCE) loss function, a robust derivative of the standard Cross Entropy (CE) loss used in deep learning for classification tasks. However, unlike other robust losses, the TCE loss is designed to exhibit the same training properties than the CE loss in noiseless scenarios. Therefore, th…
Unified surrogate loss framework for multi-label learning with strong consistency guarantees.
problem Improving consistency and accounting for label correlations in multi-label learning.
method Introducing multi-label logistic loss and extending it to comprehensive multi-label comp-sum losses, proving strong consistency guarantees for any multi-label loss.
result Unified surrogate loss framework benefiting from strong consistency guarantees for any multi-label loss.
We present α-loss, α∈[1,∞], a tunable loss function for binary classification that bridges log-loss (α=1) and 0-1 loss (α=∞). We prove that α-loss has an equivalent margin-based form and is classification-calibrated, two desirable properties for a good surrogate loss function for the ideal y…
The study analyzes a model for aggregate losses with dependent and overdispersed inter-losses times.
problem Analyzing aggregate loss models with dependent and overdispersed inter-losses times.
method The study uses a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2) and a Markov renewal process to model the inter-losses times. Severities are modeled using a heavy-tailed, double-Pareto Lognormal distribution. The model is estimated via direct maximization of the likelihood function.
result The model with dependence and overdispersion in inter-losses times leads to higher capital charges compared to a Poisson process.
This paper improves operational risk modeling by selecting better loss severity distributions.
problem Inconsistent regulatory capital calculations due to changing loss severity distribution families.
method Presented truncation probability estimates and a consistent quantile scoring function for selection criteria. Also, recommended collecting loss frequencies below the minimum reporting threshold.
result More stable regulatory capital calculations through better selection of loss severity distributions.
This paper improves loss functions for deep learning with noisy labels.
problem Training deep neural networks with noisy labels.
method The paper introduces a normalization technique to make any loss function robust to noisy labels and proposes a framework called Active Passive Loss (APL) to combine robust loss functions.
result The proposed APL framework consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, especially under high noise rates.
Classification is the most important process in data analysis. However, due to the inherent non-convex and non-smooth structure of the zero-one loss function of the classification model, various convex surrogate loss functions such as hinge loss, squared hinge loss, logistic loss, and exponential loss are introduced. T…
We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP loss probability density function and the percentiles associated to extreme eve…